Arvinas Holding Company (ARVN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $714.44M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 789.05K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.14
• Revenue Growth: N/A
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: US
• Employees: 430
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Biotechnology
• EPS (TTM): -1.10
• Shares Outstanding: 63,961,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 727,666
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 789,047
• PEG Ratio: 0.18
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.77
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.93
• P/FCF Ratio: -2.79
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.80
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.19
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 2.20
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -5.89
• 1Y Price Target: $16.45
• Price Target Upside: 47.27% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 14
• EPS Forecast (FY): -3.37
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $93.17M

• Rating: 48 Neutral
• Price Target: $11.00 ▼(-1.52% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/19/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/19/26

The score is held down primarily by weak financial performance (ongoing losses, significant cash burn, and 2025 gross profit anomaly) and bearish technical signals (below key moving averages with negative MACD). Pipeline and catalyst messaging (earnings call and ARV-102 Phase 1 update) provide support but are tempered by the sharply reduced cash position and execution/partnering risk.

Positive Factors

PROTAC platform and diversified clinical pipeline

Arvinas’ core PROTAC platform and multiple clinical-stage programs materially reduce binary program risk versus a single-asset profile. Sustained pipeline breadth (LRRK2, KRAS, BCL6, polyQ) supports long-term upside from multiple potential clinical readouts, partnership paths, and eventual commercialization options if trials succeed.

Low leverage and capitalization flexibility

Very low debt relative to equity provides durable financial flexibility, lowering insolvency risk and enabling the company to prioritize R&D and partner negotiations without heavy interest burdens. This structural balance-sheet strength supports long-term program funding options and strategic deal-making.

Cost discipline and maintained runway into 2028

Meaningful year-over-year expense reductions and management's guidance for runway into 2028 signal sustained cost discipline. That structural spending control increases the probability the firm can fund critical Phase 1 readouts and advance multiple programs without immediate dilutive financing, supporting execution over the next 2–3 years.

Negative Factors

Sharp cash depletion and financing sensitivity

A ~91% year-over-year decline in cash creates structural sensitivity to upcoming milestones and partner deals. Even with cost cuts, the much smaller cash buffer increases the likelihood of equity raises, partnerships or contract-reliant funding, which can affect long-term program continuity and strategic optionality.

Persistent negative operating cash flow and cash burn

Sustained, large negative operating cash flows indicate the company requires recurrent external funding to sustain development. Over time this cash-burn profile pressures strategic choices, may force program reprioritization or dilution, and raises execution risk for advancing multiple clinical programs concurrently.

High clinical and partnering execution risk

Operating in crowded, competitive therapeutic areas requires clear differentiation and successful trials to secure regulatory and commercial value. Reliance on partnerships or milestone recognition (e.g., vepdegestrant commercialization) amplifies execution risk: failure to outperform benchmarks or secure partners could materially reduce long-term returns.

Arvinas Holding Company Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Arvinas, Inc., a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, engages in the discovery, development, and commercialization of therapies to degrade disease-causing proteins. Its lead product candidates include Bavdegalutamide, a proteolysis targeting chimera (PROTAC) protein degrader that is in phase I clinical trial targeting the androgen receptor (AR) protein for the treatment of men with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC); ARV-471, a PROTAC protein degrader targeting the estrogen receptor protein for the treatment of patients with metastatic ER positive/HER2 negative breast cancer; and ARV-766 an investigational orally bioavailable PROTAC protein degrader for the treatment of men with mCRPC. The company has collaborations with Pfizer Inc., Genentech, Inc., F. Hoffman-La Roche Ltd., and Bayer AG. Arvinas, Inc. was founded in 2013 and is based in New Haven, Connecticut.

How the Company Makes Money

Arvinas primarily makes money through biopharmaceutical collaboration economics rather than product sales, because it is a clinical-stage company and, to the extent publicly available, does not rely on commercialized-product revenue. Its key revenue streams typically include: (1) Collaboration and license revenue: upfront payments and ongoing revenue recognized from strategic partnerships in which Arvinas grants counterparties rights (e.g., licenses) to develop and commercialize certain PROTAC-based programs/targets. Depending on contract structure, this may also include reimbursement for research activities performed by Arvinas and recognition of collaboration revenue over time as obligations are satisfied. (2) Milestone payments: development, regulatory, and commercial milestones earned when partnered programs achieve predefined events (such as successful clinical trial progress, regulatory submissions/approvals, or sales-based triggers). These payments can be significant but are inherently intermittent and dependent on program success. (3) Royalties on net sales (if and when partnered products reach the market): for programs licensed to partners, Arvinas may be entitled to royalties based on future commercial sales; however, if specific royalty-bearing products are not yet commercialized, the associated royalty revenue would be limited or null. (4) Other income sources: interest income on cash and investments can contribute to total income, particularly for development-stage biotech companies that hold substantial cash balances from financings and partnership proceeds. Overall, Arvinas’ earnings potential is driven by the success of its internal pipeline (which could eventually generate product revenue if a candidate is approved and commercialized) and by the breadth and progress of its partnerships, which can deliver upfront consideration, cost-sharing or reimbursements, milestones, and potential future royalties.

Arvinas Holding Company Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Balance sheet strength is a key positive (very low debt vs equity), but operating fundamentals remain weak: the company is still loss-making, 2025 revenue declined year over year, and cash burn is substantial with consistently negative operating/free cash flow. The unusual negative gross profit in 2025 is an additional quality/volatility concern.

Income Statement

Revenue scaled sharply versus earlier years (2025: $262.6M vs 2023: $78.5M), but momentum weakened with 2025 annual revenue down ~15.9% year over year. Profitability remains the core issue: the company is still loss-making (2025 net loss: ~$80.8M; 2024 net loss: ~$198.9M) with negative operating profitability, despite a material improvement in losses from 2023–2024. 2025 shows an unusual negative gross profit (gross profit margin ~-152%), which is a notable quality/volatility flag and weighs on the score.

Balance Sheet

Balance sheet leverage is very low, with minimal debt (2025 total debt: ~$8.5M) relative to equity (2025 equity: ~$433.9M), supporting financial flexibility. However, equity and assets have declined from prior years (equity down from ~$660.0M in 2023; assets down from ~$1.30B in 2023), and returns remain negative due to ongoing losses (2025 return on equity ~-18.6%). Overall: strong capitalization with limited balance-sheet risk, but weakening capital base and continued losses are the key offsets.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is pressured with consistently negative operating cash flow in recent years (2025: ~-$273.8M; 2024: ~-$259.3M; 2023: ~-$347.8M) and similarly negative free cash flow (2025: ~-$275.7M), indicating ongoing cash burn. Free cash flow also deteriorated in 2025 (down ~16.3% year over year). While free cash flow broadly tracks net income (free cash flow to net income ~1.0), the absolute level of burn and negative operating cash flow versus net income signal continued funding needs.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	262.60M	263.40M	78.50M	131.40M	53.60M
Gross Profit	257.40M	263.40M	78.50M	131.40M	53.60M
EBITDA	-75.30M	-243.60M	-394.80M	-255.00M	-182.40M
Net Income	-80.80M	-198.90M	-367.30M	-282.50M	-191.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	717.90M	1.09B	1.30B	1.27B	1.58B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	685.40M	1.04B	1.26B	1.21B	1.50B
Total Debt	8.50M	9.70M	3.20M	5.50M	5.00M
Total Liabilities	284.00M	529.70M	644.60M	703.90M	799.90M
Stockholders Equity	433.90M	561.70M	660.00M	564.90M	781.70M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-275.70M	-261.10M	-350.70M	-280.30M	554.70M
Operating Cash Flow	-273.80M	-259.30M	-347.80M	-273.50M	559.40M
Investing Cash Flow	407.60M	34.70M	203.50M	242.80M	-1.31B
Financing Cash Flow	-91.40M	7.90M	374.70M	4.70M	278.60M

Arvinas Holding Company Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 11.17
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ARVN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 11.17 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 12.81, below the 50-day MA of 12.74, and above the 200-day MA of 9.99, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.30 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 35.21 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 6.36 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ARVN.

Arvinas Holding Company Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ANAB	57 Neutral	$1.86B	-101.81	1813.84%	―	196.42%	53.92%
BCAX	56 Neutral	$1.19B	-5.93	-27.17%	―	―	-103.95%
CMPX	52 Neutral	$970.67M	-12.74	-43.61%	―	-100.00%	-28.79%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%
ARVN	48 Neutral	$714.44M	-9.53	-14.25%	―	―	―
MGTX	47 Neutral	$591.61M	-3.30	-1065.47%	―	96.83%	-61.92%
OLMA	47 Neutral	$1.30B	-13.39	-42.90%	―	―	17.23%

Arvinas Holding Company Corporate Events

Arvinas Reports Positive Phase 1 Data for ARV-102

Arvinas, Inc., a clinical-stage biotech focused on PROTAC-based targeted protein degradation, reported positive Phase 1 data on March 18, 2026, for ARV-102, an oral LRRK2 degrader designed to cross the blood-brain barrier in Parkinson’s disease patients. The trial showed dose-dependent brain penetration and sustained reductions of LRRK2 and related endolysosomal and neuroinflammatory biomarkers, with ARV-102 generally safe and well tolerated across all tested doses.

In the single-center, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled multiple-dose cohort, daily ARV-102 at 20 mg to 80 mg achieved approximately 50% or greater LRRK2 degradation in cerebrospinal fluid by day 14, maintained through day 28, alongside peripheral LRRK2 degradation and biomarker changes consistent with healthy-volunteer data. On the back of these results, which suggest a differentiated biomarker impact versus prior LRRK2 inhibitors, Arvinas plans to extend development of ARV-102 into additional LRRK2- and lysosomal dysfunction–associated neurodegenerative diseases, including a Phase 1b study in progressive supranuclear palsy expected to begin in the second quarter of 2026 while it assesses further paths in Parkinson’s disease.

The most recent analyst rating on (ARVN) stock is a Buy with a $20.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Arvinas Holding Company stock, see the ARVN Stock Forecast page.

Arvinas Announces Leadership Transition and New CEO Appointment

On February 10, 2026, Arvinas president, CEO and board chair John Houston, Ph.D., notified the company he would resign from those roles effective February 12, 2026, while remaining on the board and transitioning to a consulting position through March 1, 2027. On February 11, 2026, the board named lead independent director Briggs Morrison, M.D., as chair and appointed long‑time executive Randy Teel, Ph.D., as president, CEO, principal executive officer and director, under an amended employment agreement that sets his compensation, equity grants and detailed severance protections, including enhanced benefits and accelerated vesting in the event of a qualifying termination following a change in control.

The consulting agreement with Dr. Houston provides for a lump‑sum COBRA‑related payment, a cash amount equivalent to his 2025 bonus had he remained CEO, additional hourly fees beyond a baseline level of consulting hours and continued equity vesting. The leadership transition concentrates strategic and operational authority with Dr. Teel, who has held multiple senior roles at Arvinas since 2018, while preserving continuity and access to Dr. Houston’s expertise, a combination that may help stabilize governance and signal longer‑term planning to shareholders and employees.

The most recent analyst rating on (ARVN) stock is a Buy with a $14.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Arvinas Holding Company stock, see the ARVN Stock Forecast page.