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Ambarella (AMBA)
NASDAQ:AMBA

Ambarella (AMBA) AI Stock Analysis

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Ambarella

(NASDAQ:AMBA)

Rating:59Neutral
Price Target:
$65.00
▼(-1.78%Downside)
Ambarella's overall stock score is primarily influenced by strong earnings call performance and technical strength. However, financial performance challenges and high valuation risks weigh down the score. The company's successful AI strategy and product diversification are positives, but geopolitical risks and ongoing losses remain concerns.
Positive Factors
Automotive Market Presence
Ambarella disclosed wins in the automotive market across China, Japan, Korea, and the U.S., highlighting its expanding presence.
Earnings Performance
Ambarella posted better results and guidance, driven by continued adoption of Edge AI SoCs and ASP tailwinds.
Market Expansion
Ambarella is expanding its market by venturing into Edge AI infrastructure, aiming to serve customers with video management servers.
Negative Factors
Automotive Challenges
Commercializing that capability has proven to be a challenge, particularly in the automotive supply chain which is very risk-averse.
Competitive Scale
AMBA's relatively smaller scale compared to larger competitors is a weakness in the bidding process for Auto programs.
Growth Guidance
The raised FY26 guidance implies slower growth in the third and fourth quarters and a larger than seasonal decline in the fourth quarter.

Ambarella (AMBA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Ambarella Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionAmbarella, Inc. is a technology company that specializes in the development of high-definition and ultra-high-definition video compression and image processing semiconductors. The company serves various sectors, including security, automotive, and consumer electronics, by providing solutions that enable superior video quality and advanced analytics capabilities in cameras, drones, and other devices. Ambarella's innovative system-on-chip (SoC) products are designed to deliver high performance, low power consumption, and compact form factors.
How the Company Makes MoneyAmbarella makes money primarily through the sale of its semiconductor products, which are integrated into a wide range of devices that require video processing and analytics capabilities. Its key revenue streams include selling system-on-chip (SoC) solutions to manufacturers in the security camera, automotive, and consumer electronics industries. The company also earns revenue from licensing its video processing and computer vision technologies to other companies. Significant partnerships with original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and technology companies enhance its market reach and contribute to its earnings. Additionally, Ambarella invests in research and development to maintain its competitive edge in providing cutting-edge video processing solutions.

Ambarella Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Revenue by Geography
Revenue by Geography
Breaks down revenue across different regions, revealing where Ambarella is strongest and where it may face risk or growth potential due to local economic conditions or market share shifts.
Chart InsightsAmbarella's revenue in Taiwan has rebounded strongly in 2024 after a significant dip in 2023, indicating a recovery in demand or successful strategic initiatives in the region. Meanwhile, the APAC region shows a modest recovery, but Europe and North America (excluding the U.S.) are experiencing more consistent growth. The U.S. market, however, continues to decline, suggesting potential challenges or strategic shifts away from this geography. Investors should monitor Taiwan's sustained recovery and the U.S. market's trajectory for future growth implications.
Data provided by:Main Street Data

Ambarella Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 29, 2025
(Q1-2026)
|
% Change Since: 6.74%|
Next Earnings Date:Sep 02, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflects a strong performance in revenue growth, driven by successful execution of their AI strategy. Despite geopolitical uncertainties and a slight decline in gross margin, the company has increased its fiscal guidance. Product diversification and strong customer engagement suggest a positive outlook.
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Revenue Growth
Q1 revenue of $85.9 million, up 57.6% year-over-year and 2.2% sequentially. The strong performance was driven by AI business, with AGI revenue constituting over 75% of total Q1 revenue.
Increased Fiscal 2026 Revenue Guidance
The fiscal 2026 revenue growth estimate increased to a range of 19% to 25%, reflecting confidence in the AI strategy and market demand.
Positive IoT and Automotive Revenue Trends
IoT applications increased mid-single digits sequentially, and automotive revenue rose more than 20% year-over-year.
Successful AI Strategy Execution
Record AI revenue for the fourth consecutive quarter, demonstrating effective execution amidst a volatile market.
Diverse Product Introductions and Customer Engagements
Multiple new product introductions and design wins across diverse applications, including automotive safety, enterprise security, and IoT.
Negative Updates
Geopolitical and Tariff Uncertainties
Ongoing geopolitical uncertainties pose potential indirect impacts on the business, leading to a conservative outlook for the second half of fiscal 2026.
Slight Decline in Gross Margin
Non-GAAP gross margin is expected to decline slightly in Q2 to a range of 60.5% to 62%, due to changes in customer and product mix.
Decline in Automotive Revenue Sequentially
Automotive revenue experienced a low single-digit sequential decline, though it was up year-over-year.
Company Guidance
During Ambarella's first quarter fiscal year 2026 earnings call, guidance was provided indicating an increase in revenue growth estimates for the fiscal year to a range of 19% to 25%, equating to approximately $348 million at the midpoint. The company reported first quarter revenue of $85.9 million, which was in the upper half of their guidance range, driven by strong performance in their AI business. The AGI revenue, from products integrating proprietary AI accelerators, accounted for over 75% of Q1 revenue, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of record AI revenue. IoT applications grew mid-single digits sequentially and represented about three-quarters of total revenue, while automotive revenue increased over 20% year-over-year despite a low-single-digit sequential decline. The company anticipates second quarter revenue to be between $86 million and $94 million, with IoT applications expected to grow mid-single digits sequentially and automotive revenue slightly up. Non-GAAP gross margins for the second quarter are expected to be between 60.5% and 62%.

Ambarella Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Ambarella faces significant operational challenges with persistent net losses, affecting overall financial health. Revenue growth and cash flows show positive trends, but profitability remains elusive. The balance sheet is a strength with low leverage and solid equity support.
Income Statement
45
Neutral
Ambarella's income statement shows a significant net loss and negative EBIT and EBITDA margins, indicating operational challenges. The TTM revenue shows improvement, but the net profit margin remains negative. Revenue growth is volatile with recent improvement, but sustained profitability remains uncertain.
Balance Sheet
60
Neutral
The balance sheet is relatively strong, with a low debt-to-equity ratio suggesting prudent leverage. The equity ratio is healthy, showing strong shareholder investment relative to assets. However, ongoing losses may pressure equity over time.
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
Ambarella shows positive operating and free cash flow, improving its cash position. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is skewed due to persistent net losses. Cash flow management is a positive, but profitability remains a key concern.
BreakdownTTMMar 2025Mar 2024Mar 2023Mar 2022Mar 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue316.26M284.87M226.47M337.61M331.86M222.99M
Gross Profit190.71M172.33M136.82M208.93M208.13M135.57M
EBITDA-103.70M-100.53M-129.75M-54.32M-14.63M-49.20M
Net Income-103.52M-117.13M-169.42M-65.39M-26.41M-59.79M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets701.92M688.97M657.65M710.20M657.54M573.28M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments259.39M250.26M219.93M206.86M171.04M440.71M
Total Debt4.39M5.26M5.34M8.64M11.71M10.44M
Total Liabilities129.20M127.56M97.78M104.11M110.37M98.30M
Stockholders Equity572.72M561.41M559.87M606.09M547.18M474.98M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow49.77M23.45M7.05M29.04M29.12M25.86M
Operating Cash Flow63.59M33.84M19.02M44.09M38.80M30.80M
Investing Cash Flow-58.81M-40.53M7.84M-107.30M-119.55M-31.32M
Financing Cash Flow5.14M6.40M4.51M5.70M10.53M10.40M

Ambarella Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price66.18
Price Trends
50DMA
55.87
Positive
100DMA
56.72
Positive
200DMA
61.30
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
2.90
Negative
RSI
64.32
Neutral
STOCH
73.43
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AMBA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 66.18 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 57.36, above the 50-day MA of 55.87, and above the 200-day MA of 61.30, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.90 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 64.32 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 73.43 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AMBA.

Ambarella Risk Analysis

Ambarella disclosed 72 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Ambarella reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Ambarella Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
77
Outperform
$3.99B33.1124.82%1.52%32.63%46.16%
70
Outperform
$2.50B26.5912.33%2.69%10.78%58.82%
64
Neutral
$4.97B-14.77%2.16%-55.38%
63
Neutral
$33.61B6.06-11.53%1.82%5.53%-18.79%
62
Neutral
$3.81B-93.41%13.83%88.14%
59
Neutral
$2.81B-18.35%44.54%41.55%
58
Neutral
$3.12B-9.17%-20.08%-218.29%
* Technology Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AMBA
Ambarella
67.32
9.26
15.95%
CAMT
Camtek
88.92
-43.33
-32.76%
IPGP
IPG Photonics
73.63
-10.73
-12.72%
SMTC
Semtech
44.84
11.82
35.80%
SLAB
Silicon Laboratories
153.48
41.26
36.77%
SIMO
Silicon Motion
74.81
-4.89
-6.14%

Ambarella Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Ambarella Holds 2025 Annual Shareholders Meeting
Neutral
Jun 6, 2025

On June 4, 2025, Ambarella, Inc. held its 2025 Annual Meeting of Shareholders, with approximately 85.05% of outstanding shares represented. During the meeting, three Class I directors were elected to serve until the 2028 annual meeting, and the appointment of PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for the fiscal year ending January 31, 2026, was ratified. Additionally, shareholders approved the executive compensation on a non-binding, advisory basis.

The most recent analyst rating on (AMBA) stock is a Buy with a $90.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ambarella stock, see the AMBA Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Ambarella Director Anne De Greef-Safft to Depart
Neutral
Apr 4, 2025

On April 2, 2025, Anne De Greef-Safft informed Ambarella, Inc. that she will not stand for re-election to the Board of Directors at the Company’s 2025 annual meeting of shareholders, when her term will expire. Her decision was based on personal reasons, and she has no dispute with the company. The company expressed gratitude for her service.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jun 25, 2025