Alumis Inc. (ALMS)
NASDAQ:ALMS
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Alumis Inc.
(NASDAQ:ALMS)
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Rating:49Neutral
Price Target:
$20.00
▼(-19.97% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/15/26
The score is held down primarily by weak financial performance (sharp revenue decline, very large losses, and heavy cash burn), partially offset by a low-leverage balance sheet. Technical indicators are broadly neutral with slightly negative momentum. Valuation is difficult to support given ongoing losses, while the Phase 3 clinical update is a meaningful positive catalyst.
Positive Factors
Phase 3 efficacy & regulatory path
Robust ONWARD1/ONWARD2 Phase 3 results materially improve the probability of regulatory approval and commercialization. Durable implication: a successful U.S. filing in 2026 shifts Alumis from pure R&D risk toward a near-term regulatory milestone, enhancing partnership, licensing, and future revenue prospects if safety/durability hold in extensions.
Negative Factors
Severe cash burn
Deep negative operating and free cash flow signifies substantial ongoing financing needs and material dilution or partner-deal dependence until commercial revenues emerge. This is a persistent structural risk that can compress shareholder value and force strategic trade-offs in R&D prioritization absent durable revenue or committed funding.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Phase 3 efficacy & regulatory path
Robust ONWARD1/ONWARD2 Phase 3 results materially improve the probability of regulatory approval and commercialization. Durable implication: a successful U.S. filing in 2026 shifts Alumis from pure R&D risk toward a near-term regulatory milestone, enhancing partnership, licensing, and future revenue prospects if safety/durability hold in extensions.
Read all positive factors
Alumis Inc. (ALMS) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.55B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.59M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)-1.48
Revenue Growth-51.68%
EPS Growth69.60%
CountryUS
Employees168
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryBiotechnology
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-1.91
Shares Outstanding123,432,076
10 Day Avg. Volume2,295,855
30 Day Avg. Volume1,592,686
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.47
Price to Book (P/B)27.54
Price to Sales (P/S)345.07
P/FCF Ratio-22.42
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.03
Enterprise Value/Revenue313.96
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit350.27
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-6.17
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$40.67Price Target Upside62.73% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)-2.86
Revenue Forecast (FY)$8.12M
Alumis Inc. Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Alumis Inc., a clinical stage biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the development and commercialization of medicines for autoimmune disorders. It develops ESK-001, an allosteric tyrosine kinase 2 (TYK2) inhibitor for the treatment of plaque psor...
How the Company Makes Money
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Alumis Inc. Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
18
Very Negative
Balance Sheet
62
Positive
Cash Flow
21
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 8.40M | 24.05M | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Gross Profit | 7.53M | 20.55M | -3.15M | 0.00 | -250.00K |
| EBITDA | -427.46M | -423.71M | -297.60M | -156.89M | -113.60M |
| Net Income | -237.41M | -243.32M | -294.23M | -154.99M | -111.93M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 671.59M | 411.94M | 340.99M | 89.61M | 108.17M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 522.94M | 308.50M | 288.26M | 48.95M | 92.86M |
| Total Debt | 35.66M | 36.91M | 30.72M | 32.58M | 1.78M |
| Total Liabilities | 104.57M | 110.64M | 80.89M | 428.87M | 303.41M |
| Stockholders Equity | 567.02M | 301.30M | 260.10M | -339.26M | -195.24M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -377.03M | -370.18M | -256.81M | -134.47M | -110.13M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -376.25M | -369.52M | -255.08M | -129.97M | -107.72M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -37.24M | 287.88M | -113.79M | 60.47M | -68.75M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 349.06M | 2.07M | 492.37M | 89.68M | 101.63M |
Alumis Inc. Technical Analysis
Negative
24.99
Price Trends
23.42
Negative
24.80
Negative
15.60
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.96
Positive
33.95
Neutral
23.76
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ALMS, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 24.99 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 22.73, above the 50-day MA of 23.42, and above the 200-day MA of 15.60, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.96 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 33.95 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 23.76 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ALMS.
Alumis Inc. Risk Analysis
Alumis Inc. disclosed 78 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Alumis Inc. reported the most risks in the "Tech & Innovation" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Alumis Inc. Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
57 Neutral | $465.77M | ― | -128.53% | ― | 928.46% | -21.39% | |
55 Neutral | $990.00M | ― | -63.58% | ― | -61.87% | 10.39% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
49 Neutral | $2.55B | -10.58 | -54.63% | ― | -51.68% | 69.60% | |
47 Neutral | $403.20M | -3.47 | 65.27% | ― | 4.43% | 27.41% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
ALMS
Alumis Inc.
20.08
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488.86%
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Alumis Inc. Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyProduct-Related Announcements
Alumis Highlights Strong Phase 3 Psoriasis Results for Envudeucitinib
Positive
Mar 30, 2026
On March 28, 2026, Alumis reported Phase 3 data from its ONWARD1 and ONWARD2 trials showing that envudeucitinib, its oral TYK2 inhibitor, delivered rapid and robust skin clearance and symptom relief in adults with moderate-to-severe plaque psorias...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.