Alumis Inc. (ALMS) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $3.06B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 4.31M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): -1.78
• Revenue Growth: N/A
• EPS Growth: 13.80%
• Country: US
• Employees: 168
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Biotechnology
• EPS (TTM): -1.06
• Shares Outstanding: 117,506,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,942,210
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 4,305,624
• PEG Ratio: >-0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.86
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -0.87
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.83
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 114.48
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 118.89
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -5.97
• 1Y Price Target: $37.67
• Price Target Upside: 53.62% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6
• EPS Forecast (FY): -3.12
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $5.36M

• Rating: 50 Neutral
• Price Target: $26.00 ▲(6.04% Upside)

The score is held back primarily by very large operating losses and substantial cash burn that point to continued financing needs. Technicals are strong but look overextended (RSI/Stoch), while corporate events are net supportive due to positive Phase 3 data and a major capital raise, tempered by the legal dispute. Valuation remains difficult to support with a negative P/E and no dividend yield data.

Positive Factors

Phase 3 efficacy for envudeucitinib

Robust Phase 3 topline results materially de-risk the lead program and validate the selective TYK2 approach. Durable efficacy and favorable safety versus placebo and apremilast enhance commercial potential, improve regulatory probability, and increase the value of a wider “pipeline-in-a-pill” strategy.

Low leverage and stronger equity base

Manageable debt levels and a repaired equity position reduce balance-sheet stress and interest burden, preserving strategic flexibility. This structural strength supports sustained R&D spending and partner negotiations without immediate solvency pressure, aiding multi-stage clinical development plans.

Material capital raise to bolster runway

A sizable equity raise meaningfully extends funding runway and lowers near-term financing risk for pivotal programs and additional trials. Structurally, stronger liquidity supports execution of clinical timelines and regulatory activities, though it represents lasting dilution tradeoffs for shareholders.

Negative Factors

Heavy cash burn and financing reliance

Persistent, large negative operating and free cash flows create a structural dependency on capital markets and dilute owners through repeated financings. Sustained burn limits optionality for new programs and increases vulnerability to market dislocation if future raises face adverse conditions.

Deep operating losses and negative returns

Extremely negative profitability metrics indicate capital is not generating returns and reflect a cost base misaligned with current revenue scale. Long-term value creation hinges on successful commercialization; until then, poor returns constrain reinvestment capacity and strategic resilience.

Contract dispute creates execution risk

A legal dispute over a milestone, while modest in absolute dollars, can be protracted and divert management, legal resources, and cash. It underscores counterparty and contract risk that may delay program timelines, complicate asset monetization, or introduce contingent liabilities affecting strategic planning.

Alumis Inc. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Alumis Inc., a clinical stage biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the development and commercialization of medicines for autoimmune disorders. It develops ESK-001, an allosteric tyrosine kinase 2 (TYK2) inhibitor for the treatment of plaque psoriasis, systemic lupus erythematosus, and non-infectious uveitis; and A-005, a central nervous system-penetrant allosteric TYK2 inhibitor for neuroinflammatory and neurodegenerative diseases. The company was formerly known as Esker Therapeutics, Inc. and changed its name to Alumis Inc. in January 2022. The company was incorporated in 2021 and is headquartered in South San Francisco, California.

How the Company Makes Money

Alumis Inc. generates revenue through the development and commercialization of its pharmaceutical products. The company invests in research and development to create novel therapies, which it then seeks to bring to market through clinical trials and regulatory approval processes. Revenue streams are primarily derived from product sales, licensing agreements, and strategic partnerships with other pharmaceutical companies. These partnerships often involve collaborative research and shared development costs, as well as revenue-sharing arrangements from the commercialization of co-developed products. Additionally, Alumis might engage in milestone payments and royalties from licensing its proprietary technologies to third parties, contributing to its overall earnings.

Alumis Inc. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Despite strong reported gross margin (~96%) and improving TTM revenue ($22.1M), profitability is deeply negative (EBIT/EBITDA margins ~-19x revenue; net margin ~-11x). Cash burn is severe (TTM operating cash flow about -$372.4M; free cash flow about -$373.4M), implying continued reliance on external funding, partially offset by manageable leverage (debt-to-equity ~0.10) and improved equity position versus prior years.

Income Statement

TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) shows revenue of $22.1M with a very high gross margin (~96%), indicating strong unit economics on reported revenue. However, profitability is deeply negative (EBIT and EBITDA margins around -19x revenue; net margin around -11x), reflecting a cost structure far larger than the current revenue base. While the company is transitioning from essentially no revenue in prior annual periods to meaningful TTM revenue (reported growth ~10.3%), losses remain substantial and are widening versus earlier years, keeping earnings quality weak.

Balance Sheet

Leverage looks manageable in TTM with debt of ~$37.8M against equity of ~$384.8M (debt-to-equity ~0.10), suggesting financial flexibility and limited balance-sheet stress from borrowing. The equity position also improved materially versus 2022–2023, when equity was negative, indicating significant recapitalization or balance-sheet repair. The key weakness is returns: return on equity remains sharply negative (about -76% TTM), signaling that capital is not currently generating profits.

Cash Flow

Cash burn is heavy, with TTM operating cash flow of about -$372.4M and free cash flow of about -$373.4M, indicating substantial ongoing funding needs. Cash outflows have also increased versus 2024 (free cash flow deterioration despite a positive growth rate figure), consistent with rising spend. A modest positive is that free cash flow tracks net loss closely (free cash flow to net income ~1.0), implying losses are largely reflected in cash usage rather than being masked by non-cash accounting.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022
Income Statement
Total Revenue	22.12M	0.00	0.00	0.00
Gross Profit	21.30M	-3.15M	0.00	-250.00K
EBITDA	-424.43M	-297.60M	-156.89M	-113.60M
Net Income	-245.15M	-294.23M	-154.99M	-111.93M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	488.01M	340.99M	89.61M	108.17M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	377.72M	288.26M	48.95M	92.86M
Total Debt	37.80M	30.72M	32.58M	1.78M
Total Liabilities	103.24M	80.89M	428.87M	303.41M
Stockholders Equity	384.77M	260.10M	-339.26M	-195.24M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-373.40M	-256.81M	-134.47M	-110.13M
Operating Cash Flow	-372.38M	-255.08M	-129.97M	-107.72M
Investing Cash Flow	223.81M	-113.79M	60.47M	-68.75M
Financing Cash Flow	754.00K	492.37M	89.68M	101.63M

Alumis Inc. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 24.52
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ALMS, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 24.52 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 18.04, above the 50-day MA of 12.46, and above the 200-day MA of 6.33, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 4.21 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 73.98 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 83.18 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ALMS.

Alumis Inc. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
RAPT	60 Neutral	$1.60B	-5.21	-85.37%	―	―	50.23%
AUTL	56 Neutral	$388.57M	-1.73	-60.52%	―	407.86%	30.35%
ATXS	51 Neutral	$718.13M	-5.85	-43.15%	―	―	-2.74%
ALMS	50 Neutral	$3.06B	-6.36	-66.88%	―	―	13.80%
ADCT	48 Neutral	$447.20M	-2.49	―	―	6.35%	39.57%
ABSI	46 Neutral	$437.58M	-3.22	-55.68%	―	-33.09%	3.38%

Alumis Inc. Corporate Events

Alumis launches sizable common stock public offering

On January 7, 2026, Alumis Inc. entered into an underwriting agreement with a syndicate of banks led by Morgan Stanley, Leerink Partners and Cantor Fitzgerald to conduct a public offering of 17,650,000 shares of its voting common stock at $17.00 per share, with all shares sold by the company. The deal, made under an effective shelf registration, is expected to raise approximately $345.1 million in gross proceeds before expenses, with closing targeted for January 9, 2026, and includes a fully exercised 30-day option for underwriters to buy an additional 2,647,500 shares, underscoring a significant capital raise that could strengthen Alumis’s balance sheet and financial flexibility, subject to customary closing conditions and market risks disclosed in its SEC filings.

The most recent analyst rating on (ALMS) stock is a Buy with a $40.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alumis Inc. stock, see the ALMS Stock Forecast page.

Alumis Unveils Positive Phase 3 Data for Psoriasis Drug

On January 6, 2026, Alumis reported positive topline Phase 3 results from its ONWARD1 and ONWARD2 trials of envudeucitinib, a highly selective oral TYK2 inhibitor, in more than 1,700 adults with moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis, showing the drug met all primary and secondary endpoints with high statistical significance versus placebo and delivered superior skin clearance compared with both placebo and apremilast, including roughly 65% of patients reaching PASI 90 and over 40% achieving PASI 100 at Week 24, alongside rapid onset of effect, meaningful improvements in itch and quality of life, and a generally favorable safety and tolerability profile consistent with earlier studies. The strong efficacy and safety data position envudeucitinib as a potential best-in-class next-generation oral therapy that could narrow the historical performance gap between oral and biologic psoriasis treatments, reinforcing Alumis’s competitive standing in the TYK2 space and supporting its strategy to build a broader “pipeline-in-a-pill” across IL-23/IL-17- and Type I interferon–driven diseases, with longer-term durability data to come from the ONWARD3 extension and additional readouts expected from the LUMUS Phase 2b lupus program in 2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (ALMS) stock is a Hold with a $8.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alumis Inc. stock, see the ALMS Stock Forecast page.

Alumis Faces Legal Dispute Over Unpaid Budoprutug Milestone

On January 2, 2026, Alumis Inc. and its subsidiary Acelyrin issued a Notice of Material Breach and claim for indemnification to Climb Bio after Climb Bio failed to pay a $3 million development milestone that came due on January 1, 2026 under a 2024 asset purchase agreement related to the budoprutug program. The dispute escalated when Climb Bio, which had previously disclosed significant milestone and royalty obligations to Acelyrin tied to budoprutug, filed a declaratory judgment action on December 31, 2025 in Delaware asserting that budoprutug is not a “Product” under the agreement; Alumis contends this stance contradicts the contract and prior statements and says it will seek the unpaid milestone with interest, legal fees, and other relief, signaling a potentially protracted legal and financial conflict between the parties.

The most recent analyst rating on (ALMS) stock is a Hold with a $11.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alumis Inc. stock, see the ALMS Stock Forecast page.