ADC Therapeutics Ltd (ADCT)
NYSE:ADCT
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ADC Therapeutics
(NYSE:ADCT)
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Rating:47Neutral
Price Target:
$3.50
▼(-8.14% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/01/26
The score is held down primarily by high financial risk (negative equity, increased debt, and ongoing cash burn) and weak technical momentum. These are partially offset by a more constructive earnings-call outlook driven by extended cash runway and multiple upcoming clinical catalysts, while valuation support is limited due to losses and no dividend yield provided.
Positive Factors
Clinical catalysts (LOTIS‑5/LOTIS‑7)
Robust early response rates in LOTIS‑7 and LOTIS‑5 lead‑in materially improve the probability of label expansion into second‑line and supportive compendia use. Durable positive pivotal readouts would underpin sustained commercial scale, lower binary development risk, and enable revenue runway beyond the current third‑line franchise.
Negative Factors
Negative shareholders' equity & rising debt
Negative equity combined with a marked increase in debt structurally weakens the balance sheet, raising refinancing, covenant, and dilution risk. This constrains strategic flexibility, increases cost of capital, and could limit ability to invest organically or pursue inorganic options until equity metrics recover.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Clinical catalysts (LOTIS‑5/LOTIS‑7)
Robust early response rates in LOTIS‑7 and LOTIS‑5 lead‑in materially improve the probability of label expansion into second‑line and supportive compendia use. Durable positive pivotal readouts would underpin sustained commercial scale, lower binary development risk, and enable revenue runway beyond the current third‑line franchise.
Read all positive factors
ADC Therapeutics (ADCT) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$475.15M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.26M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.77
Revenue Growth6.35%
EPS Growth39.57%
CountryUS
Employees263
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryBiotechnology
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.04
Shares Outstanding127,044,360
10 Day Avg. Volume2,177,579
30 Day Avg. Volume1,256,694
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.10
Price to Book (P/B)-2.41
Price to Sales (P/S)5.51
P/FCF Ratio-3.17
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.41
Enterprise Value/Revenue8.21
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit9.07
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-6.27
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$8.00Price Target Upside109.97% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.81
Revenue Forecast (FY)$79.67M
ADC Therapeutics Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
ADC Therapeutics SA, a commercial-stage biotechnology company, develops antibody drug conjugates (ADC) for patients suffering from hematological malignancies and solid tumors. Its flagship product ZYNLONTA that is in Phase II clinical trial for th...
How the Company Makes Money
ADC Therapeutics primarily makes money from (1) product revenue generated by sales of ZYNLONTA in markets where it is commercialized (recorded as net product sales after customary deductions such as discounts, rebates/chargebacks, and returns) and...
ADC Therapeutics Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 10, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Overall the call conveyed meaningful progress: encouraging clinical signals from LOTIS-7 and LOTIS-5 lead-in, improved revenues and expense reductions, and a stronger balance sheet with runway into 2028. However, material risks remain — commercial volumes are flat, GAAP losses persist, outcomes depend on upcoming trial readouts and regulatory actions, and the competitive landscape is intensifying. The positives (clinical progress, cost cuts, financing, and clear near-term catalysts) outweigh the negatives, though execution risk remains.Positive Updates
Strong Q4 and Full-Year Net Product Revenue Growth
ZYNLONTA net product revenues were $22.3M in Q4 2025 vs $16.4M in Q4 2024 (approximately +36%) and $73.6M for full-year 2025 vs $69.3M in 2024 (approximately +6.2%), with Q4 strength driven by customer ordering variability and activation of new accounts.
Negative Updates
Underlying Volume Flat and Near-Term Commercial Growth Limited
Management reported underlying volume broadly flat year-over-year despite Q4 quarter-over-quarter improvement, and expect sales to remain broadly in line with recent years until approvals/compendia inclusion drive expansion.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Q4 and Full-Year Net Product Revenue Growth
ZYNLONTA net product revenues were $22.3M in Q4 2025 vs $16.4M in Q4 2024 (approximately +36%) and $73.6M for full-year 2025 vs $69.3M in 2024 (approximately +6.2%), with Q4 strength driven by customer ordering variability and activation of new accounts.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided that LOTIS‑5 top‑line PFS data will be reported in Q2 2026 (study powered on ~262 events) with full results by year‑end 2026, a potential sBLA/compendia submission in H1 2027 and possible confirmatory approval mid‑2027; LOTIS‑7 full data are planned by end‑2026 and indolent IIT publications between end‑2026 and mid‑2027. They expect multiple 2026 data catalysts, a year‑end cash balance of $261.3M after $100M and $60M PIPE financings and a cash runway at least into 2028. Commercial and financial metrics cited include Q4 2025 net product revenue $22.3M (FY $73.6M), Q4 total operating expense $41.0M (FY $202.9M), adjusted op ex Q4 $39.4M (FY $181.3M; adjusted op ex down 15% Q4 and 6% FY), GAAP net loss Q4 $6.4M ($0.04/sh) and FY $142.6M ($1.12/sh), and an R&D run‑down expected in 2026–2027. They quantified the market opportunity as ~12,000 second‑line and ~6,000 third‑line patients, average cycles increasing ~3→5–6, each 10‑point share ≈ $200M in 2L (≈ $100M in 3L), current ~10% 3L share, and U.S. peak revenue potential of $600M–$1B (LOTIS‑5 ~$200M–$300M; LOTIS‑7 ~$500M–$800M; indolent ~$100M–$200M), citing encouraging signals (LOTIS‑5 safety lead‑in ORR 80%/CR 50%; LOTIS‑7 best ORR 90%/CR 78% in 49 evaluable patients, ≥6‑month follow‑up).ADC Therapeutics Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
22
Negative
Balance Sheet
18
Very Negative
Cash Flow
20
Very Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 81.36M | 70.84M | 69.56M | 209.91M | 33.92M |
| Gross Profit | 73.68M | 64.89M | 67.03M | 206.61M | 32.52M |
| EBITDA | -106.50M | -102.65M | -145.83M | -107.70M | -230.53M |
| Net Income | -142.62M | -157.85M | -240.05M | -157.13M | -230.03M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 323.15M | 321.98M | 354.78M | 490.86M | 617.97M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 261.34M | 250.87M | 278.60M | 326.44M | 466.54M |
| Total Debt | 439.01M | 123.00M | 124.38M | 129.85M | 139.70M |
| Total Liabilities | 508.98M | 524.62M | 503.03M | 411.41M | 451.88M |
| Stockholders Equity | -185.83M | -202.64M | -148.25M | 79.45M | 166.09M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -141.44M | -124.70M | -121.90M | -139.00M | -239.75M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -141.17M | -123.83M | -118.69M | -138.31M | -233.38M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 395.00K | -867.00K | -3.22M | -687.00K | -6.67M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 150.94M | 97.05M | 73.88M | -897.00K | 267.39M |
ADC Therapeutics Technical Analysis
Positive
3.81
Price Trends
4.03
Negative
3.91
Negative
3.70
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.10
Positive
46.33
Neutral
59.69
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ADCT, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 3.81 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.86, below the 50-day MA of 4.03, and above the 200-day MA of 3.70, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.10 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 46.33 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 59.69 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ADCT.
ADC Therapeutics Risk Analysis
ADC Therapeutics disclosed 57 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. ADC Therapeutics reported the most risks in the "Tech & Innovation" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
ADC Therapeutics Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
57 Neutral | $451.74M | -1.84 | -46.34% | ― | ― | 14.33% | |
55 Neutral | $882.27M | -3.80 | -50.23% | 14.68% | ― | 89.16% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
48 Neutral | $160.82M | -10.73 | 304.91% | ― | 12.60% | 58.23% | |
47 Neutral | $475.15M | -3.14 | 76.03% | ― | 6.35% | 39.57% | |
47 Neutral | $1.40B | ― | -42.90% | ― | ― | 17.23% | |
44 Neutral | $270.65M | -6.10 | -300.94% | ― | ― | ― |
* Healthcare Sector Average
ADCT
ADC Therapeutics
3.81
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214.88%
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OLMA
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ADC Therapeutics Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
ADC Therapeutics Amends Royalty Deal, Issues New Warrants
Positive
Feb 23, 2026
On February 18, 2026, ADC Therapeutics amended its 2021 royalty-based funding agreement with entities managed by HealthCare Royalty Management, which have provided $300 million to the company. The amendment significantly revises the company’...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
ADC Therapeutics outlines ZYNLONTA-focused growth and financing strategy
Positive
Jan 12, 2026
On January 12, 2026, ADC Therapeutics released an updated corporate presentation highlighting its strategy to build growth around ZYNLONTA and strengthen its financial position following a year of portfolio derisking and cost restructuring in 2025...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
ADC Therapeutics Announces Preliminary 2025 Financial Results and Outlook
Positive
Jan 8, 2026
On January 8, 2026, ADC Therapeutics reported preliminary, unaudited 2025 financial figures indicating ZYNLONTA net product revenue of about $73 million for the full year, up modestly from $69.3 million in 2024, and approximately $22 million in th...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.