Education
About Us
Working with TipRanks
Follow Us
Akzo Nobel (AKZOY)
OTHER OTC:AKZOY
Top Page
Akzo Nobel
(OTC:AKZOY)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:66Neutral
Price Target:
$21.00
â–¼(-8.14% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/06/26
AKZOY scores in the mid-60s driven primarily by improving profitability and cash generation, tempered by declining 2025 revenue and still-elevated leverage. Technicals are moderately positive (price above key moving averages with positive MACD), while valuation is reasonable with a supportive dividend. The latest earnings call adds modest upside due to cost-driven 2026 EBITDA growth guidance, balanced by near-term volume/FX headwinds and reduced buyback support.
Positive Factors
Structural cost programs
Delivered, multi-year cost programs materially raise structural profitability. SG&A savings (~€200m gross, €145m realized) plus Industrial Excellence site rationalizations (€300m gross, ~€90m benefit in 2026) improve margins and recurring EBITDA, supporting durable cash generation and margin resilience even if volumes remain weak.
Improving free cash flow
Consistent, material free cash flow (€606m in 2025) strengthens financial durability: it funds deleveraging, reinvestment and dividends without relying on external financing. Higher FCF conversion (~66% of net income) provides a persistent source to lower leverage and support strategic actions over the next 2–6 months and beyond.
Value‑creative portfolio action
A high‑multiple divestment crystallized value and freed capital (~€900m) while preserving recurring upside (royalties, minority stake in powder). This refocuses the portfolio on core coatings, improves capital allocation optionality and accelerates deleveraging, translating into sustained balance sheet and operational benefits.
Negative Factors
Declining revenues
Top‑line deterioration is a durable constraint: a ~6.2% revenue decline in 2025 and ongoing volume weakness reduce operating leverage, limiting the sustainability of margin gains from cost cuts. Persistent soft sales mean earnings improvements rely heavily on one‑off or structural saves rather than robust demand recovery.
Elevated leverage
Leverage materially exceeds historical norms, leaving limited financial flexibility. With debt roughly above equity and OCF cover low (~0.21), the balance sheet is exposed to cyclical downturns or FX shocks, constraining investment, M&A optionality and shareholder returns until deleveraging advances convincingly.
Structural end‑market headwinds
Product and market shifts are eroding near‑term competitive positioning: packaging faces a technology/regulatory setback with expected share loss in 2026, while refinish and powder demand is depressed in key regions. These secular and structural headwinds can blunt revenue recovery and pressure margins beyond short windows.
Akzo Nobel (AKZOY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$10.06B
Dividend Yield3.1%
Average Volume (3M)11.20K
Price to Earnings (P/E)4.3
Beta (1Y)0.53
Revenue Growth-0.12%
EPS Growth-91.96%
CountryUS
Employees34,100
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryChemicals - Specialty
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.22
Shares Outstanding513,130,100
10 Day Avg. Volume0
30 Day Avg. Volume11,201
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.31
Price to Book (P/B)2.17
Price to Sales (P/S)1.04
P/FCF Ratio17.36
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.20
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.19
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.98
Enterprise Value/Ebitda7.81
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)1.63
Revenue Forecast (FY)$11.67B
Akzo Nobel Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionAkzo Nobel N.V. engages in the production and sale of paints and coatings worldwide. It offers decorative paints, including paints, lacquers, and varnishes; and a range of mixing machines and color concepts for the building and renovation industry, as well as specialty coatings for metal, wood, and other building materials. The company also provides performance coatings that protect and enhance ships, cars, aircraft, yachts, architectural components, consumer goods, and oil and gas facilities. It offers its products primarily under Dulux, International, Sikkens, and Interpon brands. The company was formerly known as Akzo NV and changed its name to Akzo Nobel N.V. in 1994. Akzo Nobel N.V. was founded in 1646 and is headquartered in Amsterdam, the Netherlands.
How the Company Makes MoneyAkzo Nobel primarily makes money by selling paints and coatings products to a wide range of customers, generating revenue from the volume of coatings sold and the pricing it can achieve based on product performance, brand strength, and service. A major revenue stream is Decorative Paints, where sales come from consumers and professional painters via retail channels and trade distributors; revenue is driven by home improvement and repaint cycles, new construction activity, brand positioning, and product mix (e.g., premium interior/exterior paints and related solutions). Another major stream is Performance Coatings, where the company sells specialized coatings systems to industrial customers and applicators in segments such as marine and protective coatings, powder coatings, coil and extrusion coatings, packaging coatings, and other industrial finishes; revenue in these businesses often depends on industrial production levels, customer qualification requirements, and long-term relationships where coatings are specified for particular applications. Earnings are influenced by raw material input costs (and the company’s ability to pass through cost changes via pricing), manufacturing and logistics efficiency, and product innovation that supports premium pricing. The company also generates cash flow through ongoing aftermarket and maintenance demand in certain end markets (e.g., protective and marine maintenance cycles). Specific partnership arrangements or material non-product revenue streams are not available: null.
Akzo Nobel Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 03, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call showed solid operational execution — delivering EBITDA and margin improvements, strong free cash flow, significant cost savings and a high-value India divestment — which offset market softness and FX headwinds. Management provided a conservative 2026 outlook with a clear, cost-driven plan to lift adjusted EBITDA by at least EUR 100 million and a strategically significant proposed merger with Axalta that targets meaningful synergies. Key near-term risks are lower volumes, FX translation impacts, and a temporary packaging market setback, but the company’s cash generation, deleveraging and efficiency progress drive a constructive outlook.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Full-Year Adjusted EBITDA and Margin Improvement
Full-year adjusted EBITDA of EUR 1,444 million (adjusted for FX translation and India divestment), within ~1% of constant-currency guidance; full-year profitability (adjusted EBITDA margin) 14.2%, up 40 basis points versus prior year.
Strong Q4 EBITDA and Margin Expansion
Q4 adjusted EBITDA of EUR 309 million (EUR 343 million at constant currencies and adjusted for India), a comparable increase of ~7% year-on-year; Q4 margin ~13%, up 70 basis points y/y.
Material Free Cash Flow and Deleveraging
FY free cash flow of EUR 606 million (Q4 free cash flow EUR 362 million); net debt reduced to below EUR 3 billion and leverage reduced to ~2x, aligned with midterm target.
Value-Creating India Divestment
Sale of Akzo Nobel India Limited for ~EUR 900 million at an attractive ~25x EBITDA multiple; retained powder business via minority buyout and secured recurring royalty stream from divested liquid coatings.
SG&A and Industrial Efficiency Delivery
SG&A program delivered gross cost savings of EUR 200 million (EUR 145 million achieved to date), eliminating ~2,900 functional positions and exceeding target by ~EUR 80 million; Industrial Excellence program on track (12 site closures to date) and expected to deliver total gross savings of EUR 300 million, with EUR 90 million benefit in 2026.
Aggregate Cost Takeout and 2026 EBITDA Upside Target
Combined self-help programs expected to deliver ~EUR 0.5 billion of gross cost savings; company targets at least EUR 100 million higher full-year adjusted EBITDA in 2026 on a comparable basis (driven largely by cost actions).
Operational Improvements in Working Capital and ROI
Trade working capital improved to 14.7% (1 percentage point improvement y/y) with DIO flat despite strategic prebuys; return on investment improved to 13.5% from 13.3%.
Strategic Merger with Axalta and Expected Synergies
Proposed merger of equals with Axalta progressing (regulatory filings being submitted); expects at least USD 600 million of cost synergies and revenue synergies of 100–200 basis points, with closing targeted late 2026/early 2027.
Negative Updates
Volume Declines and Soft End Markets
Q4 volumes down 2% year-on-year; group organic sales declined 1% (volumes -2%, price/mix +1%); company expects a weak first half of 2026 with no material market recovery in 2026.
Reported Revenue Impacted by FX and Portfolio Shape
Reported revenue declined 9% in FY (organic -1%, India divestment -1%, FX translation -6%); further FX drag expected in 2026 (management cited ~EUR 35 million) and Q1 FX headwind ~EUR 30 million versus prior year.
Coatings Segment Pressure and Negative Mix
Coatings volumes down 3% in Q4, driven by North American market weakness and negative mix effects that muted profitability improvements in the segment.
Packaging Business Setback and Temporary Market Share Loss
Packaging faces a temporary pullback due to an industry technology shift and delayed regulatory approvals of a new product; management expects market share erosion in 2026 before recovery in 2027.
Refinish and Powder Headwinds in Key Markets
Automotive Refinish remains at trough in North America and soft due to insurance/repair dynamics; Powder coatings impacted by low architectural demand in some regions with stabilization expected later in 2026.
India Divestment Scope & EBITDA Adjustment
India divestment results in a scope adjustment reducing reported adjusted EBITDA by EUR 40 million in 2026 (EUR 6 million already in December 2025; total correction EUR 46 million).
Suspension of Share Buybacks
On announcement of the Axalta merger, Akzo suspended share repurchases (previously planned EUR 400 million buyback not proceeding), which changes near-term shareholder return profile (management plans alternative cash returns as part of merger).
Near-Term Uncertainty in China and Some Regions
Chinese Deco market weak (market mid-single-digit decline in 2025) with recovery not expected until 2027; management sees continued market softness in parts of Southeast Asia and North America in H1 2026.
Company Guidance
For 2026 Akzo Nobel guided to at least a EUR 100m increase in full‑year adjusted EBITDA on a comparable basis (reported adjusted EBITDA at or above EUR 1.47bn after a EUR 40m scope adjustment for the India divestment and an expected ~EUR 35m FX translation headwind), with volumes expected to be broadly flat (Q1 similar to Q4, a ~EUR 30m FX drag in Q1) and an improving market trajectory in H2; the step‑up is driven by cost actions — the Industrial Excellence Program is expected to deliver ~EUR 90m net savings in 2026 (EUR 110m carryover in 2027; EUR 300m total gross), the SG&A program will deliver EUR 200m gross savings in total (EUR 145m realized to date, ≥EUR 50m carryover in 2026 via ~2,900 role eliminations), together ~EUR 0.5bn of cost takeout — management also expects pricing to be positive in 2026 (after +1% price/mix in 2025) and to finish the year with working capital around or just below ~14.5% (midterm target 13–14%).Akzo Nobel Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Financial quality is stable-to-improving: margins and ROE recovered versus the 2022 trough and free cash flow improved in 2025. Offsetting this, 2025 revenue declined (~6.2%) and leverage remains a constraint (debt-to-equity ~1.04x; operating cash flow-to-debt ~0.21), leaving less room for error if demand stays soft.Income Statement
Profitability has improved versus the 2022 trough, with net margin rising from ~3.2% (2022) to ~6.3% (2025) and operating profitability also higher than 2022–2024. However, growth is the key pressure point: revenue declined ~6.2% in 2025 after being roughly flat in 2023–2024, and profitability remains below the 2020–2021 peak levels (when net margin was ~7–8.6%). Overall: decent margins for the space, but a soft top-line trajectory keeps the score in the mid-range.66
Positive
Balance Sheet
Leverage is the main constraint. Debt remains slightly above equity in 2025 (debt-to-equity ~1.04x), though it has improved from higher leverage in 2022–2024. Returns on shareholder capital are solid and trending up (return on equity ~13.1% in 2025 vs ~8.1% in 2022), indicating improved earnings power. Still, the balance sheet is meaningfully more leveraged than 2020–2021, leaving less room for error if demand weakens or costs rise.58
Neutral
Cash Flow
Cash generation is generally supportive: free cash flow is positive in most years and improved in 2025 (up ~10.3% vs 2024), with free cash flow running at ~66% of net income in 2025 (better than 2024). The weakness is volatility and coverage—2022 saw negative free cash flow, and operating cash flow remains modest relative to debt (operating cash flow-to-debt ~0.21 in 2025), implying deleveraging capacity is only moderate. Net: improving, but not consistently strong through the cycle.63
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 9.76B | 10.71B | 10.67B | 10.85B | 9.59B |
| Gross Profit | 3.89B | 4.34B | 4.23B | 3.92B | 3.85B |
| EBITDA | 1.48B | 1.40B | 1.33B | 1.05B | 1.53B |
| Net Income | 609.94M | 542.00M | 442.00M | 352.00M | 829.00M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 13.95B | 14.25B | 14.56B | 14.74B | 13.88B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.92B | 1.47B | 1.78B | 1.79B | 1.21B |
| Total Debt | 4.86B | 5.37B | 5.56B | 5.88B | 3.55B |
| Total Liabilities | 9.13B | 9.43B | 10.01B | 10.19B | 8.24B |
| Stockholders Equity | 4.66B | 4.57B | 4.32B | 4.33B | 5.42B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 582.08M | 362.00M | 834.00M | -38.00M | 317.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 878.89M | 668.00M | 1.12B | 254.00M | 605.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 407.27M | -132.00M | -144.00M | -1.09B | -134.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -925.95M | -684.00M | -827.00M | 1.14B | -974.00M |
Akzo Nobel Technical Analysis
Negative
22.86
Price Trends
22.81
Negative
22.48
Negative
22.64
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.94
Positive
25.80
Positive
7.20
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AKZOY, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 22.86 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 22.17, above the 50-day MA of 22.81, and above the 200-day MA of 22.64, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.94 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 25.80 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 7.20 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AKZOY.
Akzo Nobel Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | $7.55B | 31.70 | 7.29% | 1.25% | 3.87% | -10.30% | |
68 Neutral | $22.77B | 14.71 | 33.60% | 2.71% | -12.98% | -11.34% | |
67 Neutral | $79.23B | 31.08 | 58.53% | 0.98% | 0.96% | 1.96% | |
66 Neutral | $10.06B | 4.27 | 14.61% | 3.10% | -0.12% | -91.96% | |
65 Neutral | $18.36B | -21.54 | -3.77% | 1.74% | 2.42% | -196.54% | |
63 Neutral | $12.78B | 21.09 | 22.70% | 1.96% | 3.09% | 12.25% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
AKZOY
Akzo Nobel
19.59
-2.14
-9.86%
PPG
PPG Industries
101.89
-9.03
-8.14%
RPM
RPM International
99.76
-14.17
-12.44%
SHW
Sherwin-Williams Company
319.78
-19.44
-5.73%
ESI
Element Solutions
30.99
4.74
18.08%
DD
DuPont de Nemours
44.90
13.06
41.00%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.