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Atos SE (AEXAY)
OTHER OTC:AEXAY
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Atos SE
(OTC:AEXAY)
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Rating:43Neutral
Price Target:
$8.00
▼(-39.71% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/12/26
The score is held down primarily by weak financial performance (shrinking revenue, large FY2025 loss, negative equity, and negative free cash flow) and bearish technicals (below major moving averages with negative MACD). The earnings call provides partial offset via improving operating metrics and constructive FY2026 guidance, while valuation support is limited due to losses and no provided dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Cost reduction (Genesis)
Near-complete execution of a large, multi-year cost program materially lowers structural operating leverage and fixed-cost base. Sustained savings improve future margins, free cash flow and the firm's ability to deleverage, reducing refinancing pressure over the coming quarters.
Improving operating profitability
A clear step-up in EBIT and margin demonstrates operational leverage and execution on restructuring. This foundational profitability lift supports durable cash generation potential and credibility for management's medium‑term margin targets if revenue stabilizes.
Strategic repositioning into AI, cloud & cyber
Focused product launches and hyperscaler partnerships position the firm in structurally growing markets (agentic AI, cloud sovereignty, cybersecurity). This expands higher‑margin, subscriptionable service opportunities and strengthens long-term competitive differentiation.
Negative Factors
Sustained revenue contraction
Multi-year top-line decline erodes scale and recurring revenue, making margin recovery and cash conversion harder. Continued organic shrinkage increases dependence on cost cuts and disposals to hit targets, prolonging the recovery timeline and execution risk.
Weak balance sheet & negative equity
Negative equity and elevated leverage constrain financial flexibility, raise refinancing and covenant sensitivity, and limit the firm's ability to invest in growth. This structural balance‑sheet weakness amplifies risks if operating recovery slips.
Large non‑operating charges and provisions
Significant impairments, restructuring cash outs and litigation/onerous contract provisions create persistent earnings volatility and potential future cash drains. These legacy charges reduce reserves, complicate forecasting and may limit capital allocation flexibility.
Atos SE (AEXAY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$902.19M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)45.00
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.87
Revenue Growth-14.15%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees71,279
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustryInformation Technology Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-8.51
Shares Outstanding98,750,890
10 Day Avg. Volume0
30 Day Avg. Volume45
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio<0.01
Price to Book (P/B)-1.09
Price to Sales (P/S)0.11
P/FCF Ratio-9.80
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.52
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.28
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit1.35
Enterprise Value/Ebitda2.59
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)0.09
Revenue Forecast (FY)$7.97B
Atos SE Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionAtos SE provides digital transformation solutions and services worldwide. It offers cloud, cybersecurity, and computing solutions, as well as end-to-end vertical solutions, data platforms, and infrastructure solutions. The company's solutions include advanced computing; analytics, artificial intelligence, and automation; cloud solutions; customer journey analytics and digital customer experience; advance detection and response, data protection and governance, and trusted digital identities, as well as digital workplace, hybrid cloud, and IoT and OT security; digital consulting; digital workplace; and edge computing and Internet of things. It also offers infrastructure and foundation services. It serves energy and utilities, financial services and insurance, healthcare and life sciences, manufacturing, public sector and defense, telecommunications and media, transport and logistics, and retail industries. Atos SE was incorporated in 1982 and is headquartered in Bezons, France.
How the Company Makes MoneyAtos SE generates revenue primarily through its IT services, which include consulting, systems integration, managed services, and cloud services. The company operates on a project-based and recurring revenue model, where consulting and project implementation services yield one-time fees, while managed services and cloud offerings provide ongoing subscription-based income. Key revenue streams include application services, infrastructure services, and cybersecurity solutions. Significant partnerships with major technology providers, such as Google Cloud and Microsoft Azure, enhance Atos' service portfolio and expand its market reach. Additionally, the company's focus on digital transformation initiatives for clients in various industries contributes to a steady demand for its services, driving revenue growth.
Atos SE Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 06, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call balanced clear operational progress and cost discipline (margin improvement, strong Genesis savings execution, improved book-to-bill and liquidity) with significant residual challenges (material top-line decline, a substantial FY loss driven by restructuring/impairments and provisions, elevated net debt and refinancing sensitivity). Management provided a cautious but constructive 2026 outlook (targeting positive organic growth with a downside to -5%, operating margin ~7% and positive cash flow), and emphasized strategic repositioning into agentic AI, sovereignty and cyber. The tone was cautiously optimistic: strong evidence of a reset and structural recovery but with execution and market risks to monitor in 2026 before a full rebound/acceleration can be confirmed.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Revenue and FY 2025 Results
Reported revenues of EUR 8,001 million in FY2025, above the prior guidance; FY25 organic revenue decline of ~14% versus prior year, with Q4 organic decline narrowing to ~9% (inflection in trajectory).
Material Improvement in Profitability
Operating income (EBIT) improved to EUR 351 million (4.4% operating margin) in FY2025, more than doubling versus pro forma FY2024 EBIT of EUR 172 million.
Cash and Liquidity Position
Net change in cash improved to -EUR 326 million in FY2025 (vs ~-EUR 700 million in FY2024), liquidity reported at around EUR 1.7 billion — well above the EUR 650 million covenant.
Genesis savings and cost actions
Genesis plan targeted EUR 650 million of savings; management reports ~88% of target achieved with roughly EUR 350 million already flowing into FY2025 P&L and ~EUR 200 million expected in 2026. G&A reduced by roughly 26%.
Operational improvements and working capital
Book-to-bill improved to 89% for FY2025 (94% in H2 2025) versus 82% in 2024; renewal rate of 92%; DSO and receivables improved (DSO at target, receivables reductions cited ~13% and ~27% depending on metric). OMDA generated EUR 883 million; capex disciplined (~EUR 170 million in FY2025, management targets ~EUR 100m+ for 2026).
Strategic product and go-to-market launches
Launched Atos Amplify (consulting) and announced four sovereign Agentic Studios (U.K., U.S., France, Germany) to focus on mission-critical agentic AI, digital sovereignty and cyber; new partnerships with hyperscalers and foundational-model partner(s) and awarded Frontier partner status with Microsoft.
Commercial traction in AI, cloud and cyber
Management highlighted growing demand and client wins/trials (examples: Scottish Water, Defra, mBank, Eurocontrol) and expects to win multiple large strategic deals (estimated 19 >EUR30m deals in 2026 vs 10 in 2024) supported by repositioned portfolio and sales actions (top-100 account reviews producing EUR 1bn+ of opportunities).
Workforce and portfolio simplification
Headcount at ~63,000 (pro forma ~57,000 excluding Latin America and small divestitures) with exits or inactivation of ~10 countries and seven country disposals completed (Latin America and certain Nordics divestments planned/announced) as part of perimeter simplification.
Negative Updates
Significant revenue contraction in FY2025
Organic revenue decrease of ~14% in FY2025 versus prior year; management expects Q1 2026 still weak (around -9% to -10%) and includes a cautionary downside scenario for 2026 organic growth of up to -5%.
Large net loss and elevated non-operating charges
Net income group share was a loss of approximately EUR 1.4 billion in FY2025, driven by sizable non-operating items including EUR 642 million of reorganization/rationalization charges (EUR 540m restructuring + EUR 102m lease/real-estate impairments) and a EUR 166 million goodwill impairment related to the Advanced Computing disposal.
Onerous contracts and litigation provisions
Other negative items of EUR 331 million include onerous contract losses of EUR 123 million and litigation provisions of EUR 145 million; management notes continuing black/onerous accounts with some contract loss exposure (one large account may continue to 2027 and another with end date 2034).
Higher financing cost and elevated net debt
Net cost of debt rose to EUR 333 million (from EUR 178 million prior year); net debt increased to EUR 1.8 billion (from EUR 1.2 billion at end-2024) and leverage remained elevated at ~3.17x (target below 1.5x by 2028).
Negative free cash flow in FY2025 and restructuring cash out
Net change in cash was negative EUR 326 million for FY2025 (improved vs FY2024 but still cash outflow); cash restructuring expense totaled EUR 445 million and cash cost of debt was EUR 160 million; timing of litigation/onerous contract cash outs remains uncertain.
Refinancing risk and high coupon tranches
Management flagged a priority to refinance the expensive first‑lien tranche (~13% coupon) when market window opens; refinancing environment considered tight and timing uncertain (1.5L yields around ~8% were noted as cheaper).
Top-line recovery execution risk
Guidance for 2026 relies on a rebound in H2 and significant deal wins to offset a weak start (Q1 weakness and tougher comps); qualified pipeline count was broadly stable at year-end 2025, requiring conversion improvement to meet growth ambitions.
Eviden and Advanced Computing transition
Eviden’s advanced computing activities were loss-making in 2024, led to impairments in 2025 and a disposal process; this creates transitional earnings and cash volatility and short-term pressure on reported results.
Company Guidance
Management guided for fiscal 2026 to deliver positive organic revenue growth (the internal budget is for growth, with a cautious downside scenario limited to -5%), with Q1 expected around -9%/‑10% and a stabilization in H2 leading to a rebound in Q3/Q4; an operating margin target of ~7% (c. €500m, ~+60% vs FY25’s €351m/4.4%); a positive net change in cash for the year; CapEx of roughly €100m+; headcount and perimeter after recent disposals ~57–58k people and ~54 countries to be reduced below ~40; Genesis savings execution to continue (88% of a €650m target achieved in FY25, ~€200m more to come in 2026); net debt was €1.8bn at 31/12/25 (cash €1.265bn; borrowings nominal €3.64bn; leverage 3.17x) with a goal to reduce leverage below 1.5x by end‑2028 and reach ~10% EBIT margin and 5–7% top‑line growth by 2028; guidance excludes debt repayments, FX and M&A.Atos SE Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Overall financial quality is weak: multi-year revenue contraction, a very large FY2025 net loss, negative equity indicating balance-sheet strain, and still-negative free cash flow despite some operating cash flow improvement versus FY2024.Income Statement
Operating performance and profitability are highly volatile and currently weak. Revenue has contracted for multiple years (down ~11% in 2025 and down again in 2024), and 2025 swung to a very large net loss with a deeply negative net margin, despite a modest positive operating margin. While 2024 showed a small profit and decent gross margin, the broader trend since 2021 includes repeated large losses and unstable earnings power, limiting confidence in near-term profitability.22
Negative
Balance Sheet
Leverage and capital structure are a major concern. Equity deteriorated sharply from positive levels in 2024 to negative in 2025, which is a red flag for balance-sheet resilience and makes debt burden harder to absorb. Debt remains substantial, and prior periods show very high leverage when equity was thin (e.g., 2023), indicating elevated financial risk even before the move to negative equity.12
Very Negative
Cash Flow
Cash generation is inconsistent and currently pressured. After significantly negative operating and free cash flow in 2024, 2025 returned to slightly positive operating cash flow but remained free-cash-flow negative, indicating continued cash burn after investment needs. Compared with the stronger cash generation seen in 2020–2022, the last two years reflect weakened cash conversion and higher funding risk if losses persist.18
Very Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 7.69B | 9.58B | 10.69B | 11.27B | 10.84B |
| Gross Profit | 1.68B | 3.22B | 3.49B | 3.40B | 3.51B |
| EBITDA | 876.01M | 1.41B | -2.32B | 238.00M | -343.00M |
| Net Income | -1.35B | 248.00M | -3.44B | -1.02B | -2.96B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 6.32B | 8.25B | 11.29B | 16.39B | 16.82B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.24B | 1.74B | 2.31B | 3.35B | 3.39B |
| Total Debt | 2.76B | 2.81B | 5.48B | 5.88B | 5.85B |
| Total Liabilities | 6.65B | 7.45B | 11.23B | 12.59B | 12.38B |
| Stockholders Equity | -786.67M | 799.00M | 55.00M | 3.79B | 4.44B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -87.41M | -1.85B | -618.00M | 176.00M | 107.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 75.88M | -1.40B | -413.00M | 427.00M | 379.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -170.01M | -203.00M | 213.00M | -251.00M | -656.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -270.87M | 1.02B | -622.00M | -304.00M | 300.00M |
Atos SE Technical Analysis
Neutral
13.27
Price Trends
11.02
Negative
11.06
Negative
10.12
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.52
Negative
45.39
Neutral
71.54
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AEXAY, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 13.27 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8.90, above the 50-day MA of 11.02, and above the 200-day MA of 10.12, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.52 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 45.39 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 71.54 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for AEXAY.
Atos SE Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
67 Neutral | $771.85M | -2,802.95 | 21.85% | ― | 12.94% | 356.32% | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% | |
61 Neutral | $955.07M | -82.49 | -2.13% | ― | 8.65% | -117.14% | |
59 Neutral | $2.03B | 6.07 | 13.41% | ― | -4.13% | 2143.48% | |
53 Neutral | $2.79B | 26.53 | 20.43% | ― | -1.90% | ― | |
49 Neutral | $1.96B | -1.80 | -33.22% | 3.38% | 3.40% | 53.13% | |
43 Neutral | $902.19M | -0.64 | 319.82% | ― | -14.15% | ― |
* Technology Sector Average
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.