Alliance Entertainment Holding (AENT) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $261.41M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 98.59K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 12.0
• Beta (1Y): 1.67
• Revenue Growth: -1.29%
• EPS Growth: 131.68%
• Country: US
• Employees: 657
• Sector: Communication Services
• Sector Strength: 97
• Industry: Entertainment
• EPS (TTM): 0.18
• Shares Outstanding: 50,957,370
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 184,160
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 98,592
• PEG Ratio: 0.05
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.86
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.18
• P/FCF Ratio: 7.16
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.40
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.35
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 2.50
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 7.74
• 1Y Price Target: $8.50
• Price Target Upside: 65.69% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.58
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $1.12B

• Rating: 58 Neutral
• Price Target: $5.00 ▼(-2.53% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/18/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/18/26

The score is primarily driven by improving fundamentals (profitability turnaround and materially better leverage), supported by a positive earnings update centered on margin expansion and liquidity improvements. These are offset by a notably weak technical setup (price below all key moving averages with negative MACD) and uneven top-line/free-cash-flow trends that add stability risk.

Positive Factors

Margin expansion & profitability

Sustained margin expansion and a move to a ~5% adjusted EBITDA margin reflect a structural mix shift to higher-value products and improved operating discipline. A higher baseline margin increases earnings resilience, funds reinvestment in growth initiatives, and reduces sensitivity to volume swings over the medium term.

Stronger liquidity & lower leverage

A materially improved liquidity position and a lower-cost, longer-dated $120M revolver meaningfully reduce refinancing and working-capital risk for an inventory-heavy distributor. Lower interest expense and expanded credit capacity support operational flexibility and strategic investments without stressing the balance sheet.

Higher-value mix & exclusive partnerships

Growth in premium physical formats and licensed collectibles, combined with exclusive studio deals, creates more differentiated, higher-margin product flows. This structural mix shift can produce steadier, contract-backed wholesale demand and improve predictability and retail sell-through across cycles.

Negative Factors

Choppy/declining revenue trends

Revenues have been uneven and the company shows negative TTM top-line growth, raising questions about the durability of recent margin gains. For a wholesaler with thin margins, sustained revenue weakness would compress operating leverage and could force trade-offs between margin preservation and market share.

Concentration in volatile categories

Significant swings in gaming and arcade categories show the firm's exposure to supply constraints, distributor transitions, and episodic demand. Such category volatility can produce large, unpredictable revenue swings for a distributor that must carry inventory and absorb working-capital variability.

Early-stage platform execution risk

The NFC-enabled authentication platform could diversify revenue and raise product economics, but it is nascent and dependent on successful studio/retailer integrations and adoption. Execution delays or slow monetization would postpone anticipated recurring revenue and limit the platform's ability to stabilize long-term margins.

Alliance Entertainment Holding Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Alliance Entertainment Holding Corporation operates as a wholesaler, distributor, and e-commerce provider for the entertainment industry worldwide. It offers vinyl records, video games, digital video discs, blu-rays, toys, compact discs, collectibles, and other entertainment and consumer products. The company also provides third party logistics products and services. It distributes its physical media, entertainment products, hardware, and accessories through multi-channel strategy. The company was founded in 1990 and is headquartered in Plantation, Florida.

How the Company Makes Money

Alliance Entertainment generates revenue primarily through the distribution of entertainment products to retailers and online platforms. The company operates a multi-faceted revenue model that includes wholesale distribution to brick-and-mortar stores, direct-to-consumer sales via e-commerce channels, and licensing agreements for digital content. Key revenue streams consist of sales from physical media, digital downloads, and subscription services. Additionally, partnerships with major record labels, film studios, and gaming companies enhance AENT's product offerings and expand its market reach, contributing significantly to its earnings.

Alliance Entertainment Holding Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financials show a real turnaround with positive TTM net income (~$21.9M) and improved margins, plus sharply reduced leverage (debt-to-equity ~0.19). Offsetting this, revenue trends are choppy/declining and TTM free cash flow, while positive (~$13.2M), has dropped materially versus the prior period, suggesting the recovery is not yet fully stable.

Income Statement

Profitability has improved meaningfully versus the 2023 loss year, with TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) net income of ~$21.9M and better gross margin (~13.9%) and EBITDA margin (~4.4%). However, revenue has been choppy/declining over time (TTM revenue growth is negative), and overall margins remain thin, leaving earnings more sensitive to small shifts in costs or demand.

Balance Sheet

Leverage has improved sharply: total debt is down to ~$22.7M in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) with a low debt-to-equity level (~0.19), a notable step-up from the higher leverage seen in prior annual periods. Equity has grown and returns on equity are strong in TTM, but the company’s historical leverage swings and earnings volatility suggest the balance sheet strength should be viewed alongside execution risk.

Cash Flow

TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) free cash flow is positive (~$13.2M) and broadly supported by earnings (free cash flow is close to net income). The main concern is the sharp TTM drop in free cash flow growth (down materially versus the prior annual period) and relatively light operating cash generation versus the scale of the business, indicating potential working-capital or cash-conversion volatility.

Breakdown	TTM	Jun 2025	Jun 2024	Sep 2023	Jun 2022	Jun 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.06B	1.06B	1.10B	1.16B	1.42B	1.32B
Gross Profit	146.73M	132.85M	128.89M	103.93M	182.38M	182.68M
EBITDA	47.43M	34.62M	19.98M	-26.12M	50.36M	59.56M
Net Income	21.88M	15.08M	4.58M	-35.40M	28.62M	34.18M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	434.06M	361.23M	340.81M	389.53M	473.04M	388.96M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.38M	1.24M	1.13M	865.00K	1.47M	4.03M
Total Debt	107.22M	90.94M	109.83M	155.71M	152.04M	72.04M
Total Liabilities	316.48M	258.01M	253.18M	310.00M	364.11M	308.66M
Stockholders Equity	117.58M	103.22M	87.63M	79.53M	108.93M	80.30M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	13.18M	26.75M	55.59M	2.56M	-83.60M	74.07M
Operating Cash Flow	13.63M	26.81M	55.77M	3.39M	-83.55M	74.72M
Investing Cash Flow	-9.10M	-8.13M	-117.00K	-824.00K	-50.00K	-66.06M
Financing Cash Flow	-9.10M	-18.57M	-55.39M	-3.16M	81.04M	-5.98M

Alliance Entertainment Holding Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 5.13
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AENT, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 5.13 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.29, below the 50-day MA of 7.14, and below the 200-day MA of 5.81, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.71 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 35.74 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 16.90 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AENT.

Alliance Entertainment Holding Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	60 Neutral	$48.67B	4.58	-11.27%	4.14%	2.83%	-41.78%
AENT	58 Neutral	$261.41M	11.96	20.53%	―	-1.29%	131.68%
GAIA	56 Neutral	$81.89M	-16.86	-5.63%	―	12.98%	27.93%
CNVS	55 Neutral	$61.31M	―	-24.27%	―	77.29%	97.98%
AMCX	54 Neutral	$313.52M	5.37	9.73%	―	-7.38%	-483.59%
LVO	48 Neutral	$63.23M	-2.53	―	―	-32.17%	-135.06%
STRZ	42 Neutral	$155.26M	-7.77	―	―	-2.85%	75.96%

Alliance Entertainment Holding Corporate Events

Alliance Entertainment Extends CEO, Chairman Employment Agreements

Alliance Entertainment reported fiscal second-quarter 2026 results for the period ended Dec. 31, 2025, highlighting a 15% rise in adjusted EBITDA to $18.5 million and a 210-basis-point gross margin expansion to 12.8%, even as net revenue eased to $369 million from $394 million a year earlier. Net income increased to $9.4 million, or $0.18 per diluted share, from $7.1 million, or $0.14, supported by operational discipline, higher-value product mix, and modestly higher operating expenses tied to technology, personnel, and infrastructure investments.

The company strengthened its balance sheet during the quarter, ending with about $74.1 million in working capital and refinancing its asset-based lending facility into a new $120 million senior secured credit line from Bank of America, with $35 million in availability and lower borrowing costs. Physical media remained a growth driver, with physical movie revenue up 33% to $114 million, modest gains in vinyl and CD sales, and a new exclusive physical media distribution partnership with Amazon MGM Studios in North America effective Jan. 1, 2026.

Alliance closed the acquisition of Endstate on Dec. 31, 2025, to establish Endstate Authentic, an NFC-enabled authentication and digital product identity platform aimed at enhancing provenance, verified resale, and lifecycle value for premium collectibles and physical goods. Subsequent to quarter end, it launched Alliance Authentic™, a premium vinyl collectibles offering that represents the first commercial use of the platform and underscores the company’s strategy to move beyond distribution toward authenticated, technology-driven collectibles and recurring platform revenue.

On Feb. 10, 2026, the company entered new three-year executive employment agreements with Chief Executive Officer Jeffrey Walker and Executive Chairman Bruce Ogilvie, each with an annual base salary of $800,000 and terms substantially similar to their prior contracts. Alliance also released an updated investor presentation, accessible via its investor relations website, providing further detail on its strategy to leverage exclusive content partnerships, technology investments, and strengthened liquidity to support durable profitability and long-term value creation for shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (AENT) stock is a Hold with a $7.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alliance Entertainment Holding stock, see the AENT Stock Forecast page.