Accel Entertainment (ACEL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $879.29M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 402.82K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 18.8
• Beta (1Y): 0.79
• Revenue Growth: 7.97%
• EPS Growth: 0.92%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,500
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Gambling, Resorts & Casinos
• EPS (TTM): 0.26
• Shares Outstanding: 81,567,060
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 531,042
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 402,824
• PEG Ratio: 0.42
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.60
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.73
• P/FCF Ratio: 15.66
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.40
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.92
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 2.91
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 6.72
• 1Y Price Target: $14.67
• Price Target Upside: 36.09% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.79
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $1.38B

• Rating: 74 Outperform
• Price Target: $14.50 ▲(34.51% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/05/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/05/26

The score is driven primarily by solid financial performance (strong revenue growth, improving profitability, and rising operating cash flow with improved leverage). Technicals are supportive with an established uptrend, though momentum is somewhat stretched (high RSI). Valuation is moderate based on the provided P/E, while the latest earnings call was constructive with record results and disciplined capital deployment, offset by regulatory/timing uncertainty around Chicago and ongoing Illinois optimization.

Positive Factors

Revenue scale-up and national footprint

Accel’s multi-year revenue expansion to $1.33B and a ~28,000‑machine installed base reflect durable route density and recurring terminal economics. Scale increases negotiating leverage with venues, amortizes fixed costs, and creates a stable platform for organic growth, market diversification, and bolt‑on M&A over the medium term.

Consistent cash generation and meaningful free cash flow

Sustained operating cash flow (~$151M) and positive free cash flow (~$62M) provide persistent internal funding for reinvestment, targeted capex, and debt reduction. Reliable cash generation enhances financial flexibility, supports disciplined buybacks and tuck‑ins, and underpins sustainable capital allocation over the next several quarters.

Material improvement in leverage and strong liquidity

A sharp reduction in leverage to ~0.14 and robust cash plus an untapped $300M revolver materially lower financial risk. This conservative capital structure increases optionality for accretive M&A, paced Chicago participation, and capital spending while reducing refinancing pressure and preserving strategic flexibility over the medium term.

Negative Factors

Thin and pressured profitability margins

Net margins near 3.9% and declining EBITDA margins versus prior peaks point to structural margin pressure from revenue‑share economics, higher operating costs, and scaling inefficiencies. Persistently thin margins limit free cash flow conversion, reduce reinvestment headroom, and constrain returns absent sustained efficiency improvements.

Regulatory and timing uncertainty for Chicago expansion

Chicago represents a structurally large addressable market, but regulatory rulemaking and city procedures create material timing risk. Delays or unfavorable rules would push out anticipated revenue and unit ramps, complicate capital allocation, and reduce near‑term visibility into a key long‑term growth driver.

Growth reliance on modest M&A and regional optimization

Growth is partially supported by tuck‑in deals that remain a modest portion of revenue (~5%), while management’s pruning in Illinois reduces location counts. This mix implies organic growth constraints, integration and execution risk for acquisitions, and regional concentration that can mute scalability and predictability of long‑term growth.

Accel Entertainment Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Accel Entertainment, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a distributed gaming operator in the United States. It is involved in the installation, maintenance, and operation of gaming terminals; redemption devices that disburse winnings and contain automated teller machine (ATM) functionality; and other amusement devices in authorized non-casino locations, such as restaurants, bars, taverns, convenience stores, liquor stores, truck stops, and grocery stores. The company also provides licensed establishment partners gaming solutions that appeal to players who patronize those businesses. In addition, it operates stand-alone ATMs in gaming and non-gaming locations, as well as amusement devices, including jukeboxes, dartboards, pool tables, pinball machines, and other related entertainment equipment. As of December 31, 2021, the company operated 13,639 video gaming terminals across 2,584 locations in Illinois. Accel Entertainment, Inc. is headquartered in Burr Ridge, Illinois.

How the Company Makes Money

Accel Entertainment generates revenue primarily through the operation and management of video gaming terminals (VGTs) and amusement devices. The company earns a percentage of the net gaming revenue generated from these machines, which is derived from the wagers made by players. Key revenue streams include the sharing of revenue with venue operators, where Accel provides the machines in exchange for a specified percentage of the earnings. Additionally, the company may engage in partnerships with various establishments to expand its footprint, and it benefits from the growing acceptance of legalized gaming across different regions. Factors such as market expansion, regulatory developments, and customer engagement strategies also significantly contribute to its earnings.

Accel Entertainment Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong multi-year revenue scale-up and improving profitability, with consistently positive and rising operating cash flow and solid free cash flow. Balance sheet leverage shows a major improvement in 2025, reducing financial risk, though margins remain thin versus peak levels and free-cash-flow conversion is only moderate.

Income Statement

Revenue has expanded strongly over the last several years (from $316M in 2020 to $1.33B in 2025), showing solid top-line scale-up after a weak 2020. Profitability is positive and improving recently (net income up to $51.5M in 2025 from $35.3M in 2024), but net margins remain thin (~3.9% in 2025) and are below the stronger 2022 level (~7.6%). Gross margins are steady (~30–33%), while EBITDA margins have drifted down versus 2021–2022, suggesting some cost pressure as the business scales.

Balance Sheet

Leverage improved meaningfully, with debt-to-equity falling sharply to ~0.14 in 2025 from ~2.33 in 2024 (and ~2–3x in prior years), which materially reduces financial risk. Equity has grown (to ~$270M in 2025 from ~$128M in 2020) and returns on equity are healthy (~19% in 2025). The key watch-out is the magnitude of the year-over-year debt change, which appears unusually large and could reflect a capital structure event; regardless, the current reported leverage profile is much stronger than history.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is consistently positive post-2020, with operating cash flow rising to ~$151M in 2025 (from ~$121M in 2024). Free cash flow is solid at ~$62M in 2025 and accelerated versus 2024, supporting flexibility for reinvestment and/or debt reduction. A weakness is cash conversion versus earnings: free cash flow is ~41% of net income in 2025 (and generally below 1.0x across years), implying working capital, capex, or other cash demands are absorbing a meaningful portion of reported profits.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.33B	1.23B	1.17B	969.80M	734.71M
Gross Profit	422.84M	371.50M	353.23M	298.90M	240.68M
EBITDA	186.80M	156.18M	157.99M	163.18M	105.95M
Net Income	51.47M	35.25M	45.60M	74.10M	31.56M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.13B	1.05B	912.89M	862.77M	616.07M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	296.57M	281.31M	261.61M	256.18M	230.85M
Total Debt	629.35M	595.38M	542.57M	542.03M	341.52M
Total Liabilities	852.80M	789.09M	714.49M	684.18M	457.61M
Stockholders Equity	269.68M	255.03M	198.40M	178.59M	158.46M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	61.95M	54.65M	50.79M	60.62M	81.00M
Operating Cash Flow	150.88M	121.19M	132.53M	108.00M	110.75M
Investing Cash Flow	-100.55M	-124.15M	-59.79M	-189.26M	-34.54M
Financing Cash Flow	-35.06M	22.65M	-35.24M	106.59M	-11.88M

Accel Entertainment Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 10.78
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ACEL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 10.78 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.35, below the 50-day MA of 11.32, and below the 200-day MA of 11.20, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.04 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 41.71 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 3.45 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ACEL.

Accel Entertainment Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ACEL	74 Outperform	$879.29M	18.85	18.43%	―	7.97%	0.92%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
FLL	56 Neutral	$90.82M	-2.34	-25.10%	―	7.45%	5.03%
GDEN	56 Neutral	$712.50M	-118.26	-1.37%	3.71%	-12.25%	-84.89%
INSE	53 Neutral	$182.65M	-16.00	184.28%	―	4.03%	―
BALY	43 Neutral	$610.59M	―	118.32%	―	0.36%	47.55%
MSC	40 Neutral	$585.79M	-2.91	-10.84%	―	9.50%	24.64%

Accel Entertainment Corporate Events

Accel Entertainment posts record Q4 and 2025 results

On March 3, 2026, Accel Entertainment reported record financial results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025, highlighted by a 7.5% year-over-year revenue increase in the quarter to $341.4 million and full-year revenue of $1.33 billion, up 8.1%. Net income nearly doubled in the quarter to $16.1 million and rose 45.3% for the year to $51.3 million, while adjusted EBITDA reached record levels of $56.3 million for the quarter and $210.1 million for the year.

The company expanded its network to 4,501 locations and 27,950 gaming terminals, repurchased 3.7 million shares in 2025, and ended the year with $296.6 million in cash and net debt of about $311 million. Management highlighted strong growth in developing markets such as Nevada, Louisiana, Nebraska and Georgia, the first full year of racing and casino operations at Fairmount Park, and the completion of a new $900 million credit facility extending maturities to 2030 and enhancing flexibility to pursue organic growth, tuck-in acquisitions and potential opportunities if video gaming terminals are approved in Chicago.

The most recent analyst rating on (ACEL) stock is a Hold with a $12.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Accel Entertainment stock, see the ACEL Stock Forecast page.

Accel Entertainment announces CEO succession and leadership transition

On February 2, 2026, Accel Entertainment announced a planned leadership transition in which current Chief Executive Officer and President Andy Rubenstein was immediately appointed Chairman of the Board, while Mark Phelan, currently President – US Gaming and newly named Chief Operating Officer, is scheduled to succeed Rubenstein as Chief Executive Officer and President on August 7, 2026; at the same time, Karl Peterson shifted from Board Chairman to Lead Independent Director. To support continuity, the company entered into a Leadership Transition and Advisory Services Agreement under which Rubenstein will serve as a non-employee advisor to the CEO for three years following the transition date and will continue as a director subject to ownership thresholds, with his compensation and equity awards structured to align his incentives with the company’s long-term performance. Accel also executed an amended and restated employment agreement with Phelan, effective February 2, 2026, setting out increased salary, bonus, and equity-based incentive opportunities tied to his expanded responsibilities, as well as severance, change-in-control protections, and post-employment non-compete and non-solicitation covenants, signaling a deliberate succession plan aimed at stability for shareholders and other stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (ACEL) stock is a Buy with a $13.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Accel Entertainment stock, see the ACEL Stock Forecast page.

Accel Entertainment explores Chicago distributed gaming expansion opportunity

On January 8, 2026, Accel Entertainment announced it is evaluating opportunities to bring its distributed gaming and local entertainment model to the city of Chicago, following the city’s consideration of allowing Video Gaming Terminals (VGTs) in licensed locations. An analysis from the City Council Office of Financial Analysis projects that the proposed Chicago VGT framework could yield about $64 million in incremental annual tax revenue and support an estimated $1 billion in annual gross gaming revenue once fully ramped—over a period that may take up to 10 years—implying roughly $320 million in incremental net terminal income for VGT operators based on current revenue splits. Leveraging its strong balance sheet, existing infrastructure, and route management capabilities, Accel believes it is well positioned to participate in this potential market and is assessing capital deployment strategies, ramp timing, and cost structures, while monitoring regulatory developments and planning to update investors as the city’s VGT framework takes shape.

The most recent analyst rating on (ACEL) stock is a Hold with a $13.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Accel Entertainment stock, see the ACEL Stock Forecast page.