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ABN AMRO Bank (AAVMY)
OTHER OTC:AAVMY
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ABN AMRO Bank
(OTC:AAVMY)
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Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
$38.00
â–²(12.23% Upside)
Action:DowngradedDate:12/30/25
The score is held back primarily by weaker financial quality driven by multi-year negative operating/free cash flow and elevated leverage, despite improved profitability and equity growth. Offsetting this are constructive technical momentum, reasonable valuation with a solid dividend yield, and a positive earnings call featuring strong capital metrics, maintained guidance, and a strategically accretive acquisition plan.
Positive Factors
Profitability
Strong profitability driven by increased net interest and fee income indicates effective revenue generation and cost management, supporting long-term financial health.
Mortgage Market Strength
Significant growth in mortgage production reflects robust demand and market position, enhancing revenue streams and supporting future growth.
Capital Ratio Improvement
Improved capital ratios provide a strong buffer against financial uncertainties, ensuring stability and compliance with regulatory requirements.
Negative Factors
Rising Operating Costs
Increased operating costs may pressure profit margins and require strategic cost management to maintain financial performance.
Delay in Share Buyback
Delays in share buybacks can affect shareholder returns and signal potential challenges in capital allocation and regulatory compliance.
Economic Outlook Concerns
Economic uncertainties in key markets may affect loan demand and asset quality, posing risks to revenue growth and financial stability.
ABN AMRO Bank (AAVMY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$26.05B
Dividend Yield4.27%
Average Volume (3M)365.00
Price to Earnings (P/E)11.4
Beta (1Y)0.63
Revenue Growth-11.00%
EPS Growth-10.26%
CountryUS
Employees21,976
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryBanks - Diversified
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.58
Shares Outstanding616,154,540
10 Day Avg. Volume0
30 Day Avg. Volume365
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.60
Price to Book (P/B)0.50
Price to Sales (P/S)0.67
P/FCF Ratio-1.17
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.02
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.83
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.97
Enterprise Value/Ebitda15.69
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
ABN AMRO Bank Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionABN AMRO Bank N.V. provides various banking products and services to retail, private, and business clients in the Netherlands and internationally. It operates through three segments: Personal & Business Banking, Wealth Management, and Corporate Banking. The company provides savings and deposits products; labelled residential mortgage products under the Florius brands; and consumer loans under the Alpha Credit Nederland, Credivance, Defam, Moneyou, and ABN AMRO brands. It also issues, promotes, manages, and processes credit cards; provides revolving credit card facilities and pension schemes, as well as consumer credit and mortgages; and life and non-life insurance products. In addition, it offers asset-based solutions, including working capital solutions, equipment leases and loans, and vendor lease services; private banking and wealth-management-related services; and derivatives and equity clearing services. ABN AMRO Bank N.V. was incorporated in 2009 and is headquartered in Amsterdam, the Netherlands.
How the Company Makes MoneyABN AMRO Bank generates revenue through various streams, primarily focusing on interest income from loans and advances to customers and businesses. The bank earns fees and commissions from its wide array of banking services, including asset management, payment processing, and advisory services. Additionally, it gains revenue from trading and investment activities, leveraging its expertise in financial markets. ABN AMRO's private banking and wealth management divisions also contribute significantly to its earnings by offering tailored financial solutions to high-net-worth individuals. Strategic partnerships and collaborations further enhance its service offerings and market reach, contributing to the bank's overall profitability.
ABN AMRO Bank Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 11, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 20, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call communicated a strong operational quarter and material strategic progress: robust profit (EUR 410m Q4), significant RWA reduction (~EUR 7.7bn), improving capital (CET1 15.4%), healthy deposit and client asset inflows (EUR 8.3bn deposits, ~EUR 7bn client assets in Q4), and clear cost-savings momentum. Headwinds include mortgage margin pressure, one-off Q4 impairments (EUR 70m), seasonal/one-off cost items and some weakness in other income. Management retained conservative 2026 guidance (commercial NII ~EUR 6.4bn; costs ~EUR 5.6bn) and highlighted timing/approval uncertainty around the NIBC acquisition and buyback. Overall, positives materially outweigh the negatives, with the bank portraying strong capital and execution while flagging manageable near-term volatility and integration/cost timing risks.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Solid Quarterly and Full-Year Profit
Q4 net profit of EUR 410 million; full-year NII ended in line with guidance. Net result supported by strong NII and fee income.
Strong Mortgage Production and Portfolio Growth
New mortgage production market share rose 21% in Q4, driving a net increase of EUR 2.5 billion in mortgage volume in the quarter; gross mortgage production of EUR 14 billion for the year and a net increase of EUR 8 billion in the mortgage portfolio for 2025.
Deposit and Client Asset Inflows
Total client deposits increased by EUR 8.3 billion in Q4. Client assets rose by ~EUR 7 billion in the quarter; Wealth Management client assets increased by EUR 44 billion in 2025 (driven by HAL acquisition, market performance and net new assets).
Significant RWA and Capital Optimization
Risk-weighted assets declined by around EUR 7.7 billion in Q4 (management cites close to EUR 8 billion), contributing to CET1 rising to 15.4%. More than EUR 4 billion of reductions came from RWA optimization measures; Corporate Banking delivered ~EUR 3 billion of RWA optimization in Q4.
Shareholder Distributions and Payouts
Proposed final dividend of EUR 0.70 per share and announced additional distributions of EUR 500 million (EUR 250 million cash dividend + EUR 250 million share buyback subject to approval). Total 2025 payout ratio ~87% (total distributions ~EUR 1.8 billion).
Cost Discipline and Run-Rate Improvements
Full-year costs ended at the lower end of guidance. Bank achieved around EUR 160 million of cost savings in 2025, reduced total FTEs by 1,500 during the year and retired more than 200 applications to simplify IT landscape.
Low Through-the-Cycle Cost of Risk and Solid Asset Quality
Full-year cost of risk was 1 basis point (well below through-the-cycle guidance of 10–15 bps). Stage 3 ratio at 2.1% with a slight increase in coverage ratio; management describes credit quality as solid.
Commercial Momentum in Key Businesses
Wealth Management and Personal & Business Banking jointly delivered deposit growth and Wealth Management saw conversion of cash into fee-generating mandates. Clearing strengthened top-3 position with higher fee income. New10 reached EUR 1 billion in financing to 10,000 SMEs since launch.
Negative Updates
Mortgage Margin Pressure
Mortgage margins slightly declining due to client demand for mortgages under the National Mortgage Guarantee Scheme and mix effects (higher share of Dutch-guaranteed and low-LTV mortgages); management expects margin pressure to partially offset volume growth.
Other Income and Treasury Volatility
Other income remained subdued with Corporate Banking and Treasury performing below trend in Q4 (treasury booked negative other income of EUR 40 million). Residual/treasury NII benefited in Q4 (increase of EUR 66 million) but some of this is temporary and expected to reverse in Q1.
Impairments and Higher Quarterly Cost of Risk
EUR 70 million of impairments booked in Q4, mainly individual corporate files across sectors and geographies. Although full-year cost of risk is low, Q4 impairments mark a pickup from two prior years of limited net impairments.
Seasonal and Nonrecurring Cost Increases
Underlying expenses increased in Q4 due to seasonal/nonrecurring items (~EUR 40 million) and EUR 60 million of restructuring costs booked in Q4 (total ~EUR 100 million of EUR 400 million plan taken to date). Management expects somewhat higher restructuring costs next year.
Uncertainty Around Full Distribution and Buyback Execution
Although additional EUR 500 million distributions announced, the EUR 250 million share buyback is subject to regulatory approval. Management elected not to push distributions to 100% of net profit this quarter, citing capital assessment and the planned NIBC acquisition (~80 bps CET1 impact).
Revenue Mix and Fee Income Headwinds
Fee income rose only 2% quarter-on-quarter and some fee streams normalized after seasonal peaks. Corporate Banking recorded losses in equity participations, contributing to weaker other income.
Near-Term Cost and NII Headwinds from Acquisitions
2026 costs are expected to increase to ~EUR 5.6 billion reflecting the full-year inclusion of HAL (~EUR 135 million) and other integration/CLA/inflation effects. NIBC acquisition timing/impact (~EUR 160 million NII for six months if closed) introduces some timing uncertainty in 2026 NII guidance.
Company Guidance
ABN AMRO reiterated its 2026 guidance: commercial NII around EUR 6.4 billion and operating costs about EUR 5.6 billion (ex‑restructuring), with HAL adding ~EUR 135 million of full‑year costs and Alfam’s ~EUR 60 million NII phasing treated separately; residual/other NII is expected in a EUR 0–200 million range and full‑year NII finished 2025 in line with guidance. Capital and capital return guidance: CET1 target >13.75% (Q4 CET1 15.4%; NIBC expected to reduce CET1 by ~80 bps), a distribution policy of up to 100% of net profit for 2026–28, and an announced 2025 payout of ~EUR 1.8 billion (87% payout) including interim EUR 0.54 and proposed final EUR 0.70 per share plus EUR 500 million additional distributions (EUR 250m cash / EUR 250m buyback subject to approval). RWA and risk guidance: Q4 RWA fell ~EUR 7.7 billion (end‑2025 RWA ≈ EUR 135 billion), Corporate Banking achieved ~EUR 3 billion of RWA optimization and targets ~50% allocated RWAs by 2028, cost of risk is normalizing toward the low end of a 10–15 bps through‑the‑cycle range (2025 full‑year cost of risk 1 bp; Q4 impairments EUR 70 million), and the replicating portfolio remains ~EUR 165 billion (40–45% repricing within 1 year); management noted curve steepening could provide limited NII tailwinds but expects only modest, phased upside.ABN AMRO Bank Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income statement trends are solid (2024 profitability improved meaningfully, net margin ~12%, and revenue rebounded strongly), and equity growth supports capitalization. However, sustained negative operating/free cash flow in 2022–2024 and persistently elevated leverage (debt-to-equity ~3.1x) materially weaken overall financial quality.Income Statement
Profitability improved meaningfully versus 2020, with net income turning solidly positive and 2024 net margin at ~12% (vs. a small loss in 2020). Reported revenue accelerated sharply in 2024 (+36.7% YoY), and operating profitability appears healthy in 2024 (EBIT margin ~17.5%). Offsetting this, revenue has been volatile across the period (declines in 2019–2020 and 2022–2023 before rebounding), and margins are inconsistent year-to-year, which reduces confidence in earnings stability.71
Positive
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet looks adequately capitalized for a bank, with equity growing steadily from ~€21.0B (2020) to ~€26.1B (2024) and return on equity improving to ~9.2% in 2024. However, leverage remains elevated with debt-to-equity around ~3.1x in 2024 (and often higher historically), which increases sensitivity to credit/market shocks. Total assets are large and broadly stable (~€385B in 2024), but the leverage profile keeps the score in the mid-range.62
Positive
Cash Flow
Cash flow quality is the weakest area: operating cash flow and free cash flow are negative in 2022–2024 (2024 operating cash flow about -€10.8B; free cash flow about -€11.2B), indicating meaningful cash outflows despite reported profitability. The swing from very strong inflows in 2020–2021 to sustained outflows thereafter suggests volatility and potential working-capital/operating timing pressures. While banks can show lumpy cash flows, the multi-year negative trend is a clear concern.29
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 13.72B | 19.50B | 8.78B | 10.15B | 7.64B | 5.61B |
| Gross Profit | 8.79B | 8.94B | 8.59B | 7.64B | 7.64B | 5.61B |
| EBITDA | 3.35B | 3.58B | 0.00 | 2.55B | 2.03B | 0.00 |
| Net Income | 2.31B | 2.40B | 2.70B | 1.87B | 1.23B | -45.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 413.92B | 385.05B | 377.91B | 379.58B | 399.11B | 395.62B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 49.39B | 45.80B | 55.05B | 62.84B | 68.25B | 62.15B |
| Total Debt | 83.60B | 81.54B | 54.44B | 63.96B | 67.72B | 75.34B |
| Total Liabilities | 386.44B | 358.94B | 353.74B | 356.77B | 377.11B | 374.63B |
| Stockholders Equity | 27.48B | 26.11B | 24.17B | 22.81B | 21.99B | 20.99B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 0.00 | -11.25B | -9.32B | -8.33B | 9.40B | 45.09B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 0.00 | -10.79B | -7.82B | -8.14B | 9.60B | 45.31B |
| Investing Cash Flow | 0.00 | -4.81B | -1.72B | -239.00M | 3.86B | -2.48B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 0.00 | 6.16B | 2.01B | 2.95B | -7.38B | -9.84B |
ABN AMRO Bank Technical Analysis
Negative
33.86
Price Trends
35.33
Negative
33.49
Negative
30.89
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.85
Positive
32.20
Neutral
6.57
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AAVMY, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 33.86 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 34.84, below the 50-day MA of 35.33, and above the 200-day MA of 30.89, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.85 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 32.20 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 6.57 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AAVMY.
ABN AMRO Bank Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | $2.03B | 8.94 | 21.45% | 3.70% | -0.09% | 18.47% | |
72 Outperform | $124.72B | 11.27 | 18.99% | 3.27% | 7.52% | 10.40% | |
71 Outperform | $75.40B | 11.24 | 11.70% | 4.14% | 2.20% | -0.17% | |
69 Neutral | $26.05B | 11.40 | 9.54% | 4.27% | -11.00% | -10.26% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
60 Neutral | $77.82B | 11.28 | 10.00% | 1.71% | 17.50% | 49.25% | |
58 Neutral | $62.42B | 4.48 | 15.42% | 3.67% | 7.43% | 30.31% |
* Financial Sector Average
AAVMY
ABN AMRO Bank
32.53
13.51
70.97%
BBVA
Banco Bilbao
22.05
8.76
65.85%
BCS
Barclays
23.34
7.42
46.57%
ING
ING Groep
27.25
8.84
48.03%
NWG
NatWest Group
16.12
4.18
35.01%
NTB
Bank of NT Butterfield & Son
51.04
15.30
42.80%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.