Aardvark Therapeutics, Inc. (AARD) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $273.47M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 166.37K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.36
• Revenue Growth: N/A
• EPS Growth: 31.30%
• Country: US
• Employees: 22
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Biotechnology
• EPS (TTM): -0.75
• Shares Outstanding: 21,773,272
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 148,283
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 166,372
• PEG Ratio: -0.05
• Price to Book (P/B): -3.38
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -10.15
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.76
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: -20.71K
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -3.98
• 1Y Price Target: $33.00
• Price Target Upside: 155.62% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 10
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 55 Neutral
• Price Target: $13.00 ▲(0.70% Upside)

The score is held back primarily by weak financial performance (pre-revenue, widening losses, and substantial cash burn implying funding risk). Offsetting factors include favorable technical momentum (price above major moving averages with positive MACD) and positive corporate pipeline milestones (Phase 3 HERO trial progress and updated program communications), while valuation remains constrained by ongoing losses and a negative P/E.

Positive Factors

Phase 3 progress

Initiation of the Phase 3 HERO trial with first dosing and multi‑country regulatory clearances marks a durable de‑risking step toward pivotal data. A timely topline in Q3 2026 would materially advance regulatory and commercial potential for ARD‑101, shaping strategy and partnerships.

Clinical proof-of-concept & orphan status

Positive Phase 1/2 results showing hyperphagia reductions and a favorable safety profile, plus orphan drug designation, strengthen the company’s probability of approval and market access in Prader–Willi syndrome. These durable advantages support pricing, trial design, and regulatory pathways.

Low leverage

Extremely low reported debt limits solvency and interest‑service risk, giving operational and financial flexibility to sustain R&D spend. For a development‑stage biotech, low leverage reduces the chance of near‑term distress and preserves strategic optionality while clinical programs advance.

Negative Factors

Pre-revenue status

The company generates no product revenue, leaving commercialization and cash self‑sufficiency contingent on successful clinical outcomes and external financing. This structural lack of operating income sustains dependency on capital markets until approval and launch occur.

Widening operating losses

Operating losses have widened sharply year‑over‑year as development spend ramps, increasing erosion of equity and raising the quantum of future financing needs. Sustained negative profitability means economic viability depends on trial success and future commercial execution.

Persistent cash burn / funding risk

Consistent, large negative operating and free cash flow indicates the company is consuming cash to fund trials. Even with low debt, this pace of burn creates material funding and dilution risk absent timely capital raises or milestone financing, constraining long‑term execution.

Aardvark Therapeutics, Inc. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Aardvark Therapeutics, Inc., a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, focuses on developing small-molecule therapeutics to activate innate homeostatic pathways for the treatment of metabolic diseases. Its lead product candidate is the ARD-101, an oral gut-restricted small-molecule agonist of certain targeting bitter taste receptors expressed in the gut lumen that is in Phase III clinical trial for hyperphagia associated with Prader-Willi Syndrome, as well as in Phase II clinical trial for hyperphagia associated with acquired hypothalamic obesity resultant from treatment of craniopharyngioma, including surgery or radiation. It also developing ARD-201, which is in Phase I clinical trial for the treatment of obesity. The company was incorporated in 2017 and is based in San Diego, California.

How the Company Makes Money

Aardvark Therapeutics, Inc. generates revenue primarily through the development and commercialization of its proprietary pharmaceutical products. The company earns income by licensing its drug candidates to larger pharmaceutical companies, securing milestone payments, and receiving royalties on product sales. Additionally, Aardvark may engage in strategic partnerships with other biotech firms and research institutions to co-develop and co-market therapies, further expanding its revenue streams. The company may also seek government grants and research funding to support its development programs, contributing to its financial stability.

Aardvark Therapeutics, Inc. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Development-stage profile with no revenue and materially widening losses (TTM EBIT about -$53.5M vs. -$22.8M in 2024) alongside heavy cash burn (TTM operating cash flow and free cash flow about -$47.5M/-$47.6M). A key offset is very low leverage (TTM debt about $0.5M vs. equity about $122.4M), though historical negative equity and ongoing burn imply continued dependence on external funding.

Income Statement

The company is still pre-revenue (revenue is 0 across annual periods and TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months)), with consistently large operating losses. Losses have widened materially in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) (EBIT of about -$53.5M vs. -$22.8M in 2024), indicating rising spend without offsetting commercial traction yet. Profitability is therefore very weak, though this is not uncommon for development-stage biotech.

Balance Sheet

Leverage is very low (TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) total debt of ~$0.5M against ~$122.4M of equity; debt-to-equity near zero), which reduces solvency risk. However, equity was negative in prior annual periods (2022–2024), showing historical balance-sheet fragility and likely reliance on external funding; TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) return on equity is deeply negative due to ongoing losses.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is weak with persistent cash burn: TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) operating cash flow is about -$47.5M and free cash flow about -$47.6M. While free cash flow “covers” net loss (free cash flow is roughly in line with net income in magnitude), that mainly reflects that losses are translating into cash burn rather than being cushioned by non-cash items. Free cash flow deterioration versus 2024 is significant (TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) shows a sharp increase in cash outflow), increasing funding needs.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022
Income Statement
Total Revenue	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Gross Profit	-10.00K	0.00	0.00	0.00
EBITDA	-52.05M	-22.65M	-6.65M	-9.76M
Net Income	-48.77M	-20.59M	-7.21M	-13.56M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	133.23M	77.51M	10.54M	16.76M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	126.35M	73.66M	9.99M	16.11M
Total Debt	545.00K	779.00K	162.00K	262.00K
Total Liabilities	10.85M	132.15M	45.34M	44.68M
Stockholders Equity	122.38M	-54.64M	-34.80M	-27.92M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-47.58M	-18.20M	-5.82M	-10.54M
Operating Cash Flow	-47.48M	-18.09M	-5.82M	-10.54M
Investing Cash Flow	-85.86M	-12.00M	0.00	-1.00M
Financing Cash Flow	90.35M	81.99M	0.00	225.00K

Aardvark Therapeutics, Inc. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ANNX	56 Neutral	$874.16M	-4.29	-83.98%	―	―	-35.62%
AARD	55 Neutral	$273.47M	-5.59	-48.06%	―	―	31.30%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%
DRTS	51 Neutral	$648.01M	-14.57	-54.38%	―	―	-22.82%
OABI	50 Neutral	$250.48M	-2.95	-22.37%	―	3.36%	5.15%
NBTX	48 Neutral	$1.04B	―	―	―	―	―

Aardvark Therapeutics, Inc. Corporate Events

Aardvark Therapeutics updates investor presentation on hunger therapies

On January 12, 2026, Aardvark Therapeutics updated and published a new corporate investor presentation outlining its development pipeline and strategic focus on suppressing hunger to treat Prader–Willi syndrome and obesity. The materials highlight late-stage progress of ARD-101 for hyperphagia in Prader–Willi syndrome, including completed Phase 1 and Phase 2 studies that showed reductions in hyperphagia scores with a favorable safety profile, its orphan drug designation, and an ongoing Phase 3 HERO trial with topline data expected in the third quarter of 2026. The update also details ARD-201 programs in obesity for weight maintenance and weight loss, underscoring Aardvark’s ambition to expand treatment options in validated, high-value markets where current therapies are limited, which could strengthen its competitive position if upcoming clinical readouts are positive.

The most recent analyst rating on (AARD) stock is a Hold with a $13.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aardvark Therapeutics, Inc. stock, see the AARD Stock Forecast page.

Aardvark Therapeutics Begins Phase 3 HERO Trial Dosing

On December 10, 2025, Aardvark Therapeutics announced the dosing of the first patient in Australia for their Phase 3 HERO trial, which evaluates ARD-101 for treating hyperphagia in Prader-Willi syndrome patients. The company has received regulatory clearance for trial sites in Canada and the UK, and with strong enrollment in the US, they anticipate meeting their timeline for topline data by Q3 2026 without activating additional EU sites.

The most recent analyst rating on (AARD) stock is a Buy with a $47.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aardvark Therapeutics, Inc. stock, see the AARD Stock Forecast page.

Aardvark Therapeutics Hosts Investor Webinar on Drug Programs

On November 5, 2025, Aardvark Therapeutics, Inc. held an investor webinar to discuss its ARD-101 and ARD-201 programs and their presentations at ObesityWeek 2025. The company is positioning itself for growth by targeting rare metabolic diseases and obesity through innovative oral drugs that suppress hunger. The ongoing and upcoming clinical trials, including the Phase 3 HERO trial and Phase 2 POWER and STRENGTH trials, aim to expand treatment options and improve patient outcomes. These developments highlight Aardvark’s commitment to addressing severe unmet medical needs and enhancing its market position.

The most recent analyst rating on (AARD) stock is a Buy with a $29.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aardvark Therapeutics, Inc. stock, see the AARD Stock Forecast page.