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Apple (AAPL)
NASDAQ:AAPL

Apple (AAPL) AI Stock Analysis

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AA

Apple

(NASDAQ:AAPL)

Rating:76Outperform
Price Target:
$228.00
▲(11.81%Upside)
Apple's overall score is primarily driven by its strong financial performance, highlighted by profitability and strategic growth in services. The earnings call provided a positive sentiment with significant revenue growth, offset by valuation concerns due to a high P/E ratio and technical analysis indicating potential bearish trends.
Positive Factors
Earnings Potential
If AAPL decided to aggressively pursue an advertising revenue stream, this could materially accelerate revenue and EPS growth.
Forecast Performance
The App Store is tracking ahead of the forecast, implying a potential upside in Services revenue.
Revenue Growth
US App Store revenue and monetization is accelerating, showing no impact from the injunction.
Negative Factors
Competition
Every Big Tech competitor wants to take AAPL's 15%-30% platform tax.
Regulatory Challenges
The United States Court of Appeals denied Apple's request to stay the implementation of zero-commission link-out payments.
Survey Risks
Survey shows 2% of Apple EPS is 'at-risk' if real-world behavior mimics survey work.

Apple (AAPL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Apple Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionApple Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets smartphones, personal computers, tablets, wearables, and accessories worldwide. The company offers iPhone, a line of smartphones; Mac, a line of personal computers; iPad, a line of multi-purpose tablets; and wearables, home, and accessories comprising AirPods, Apple TV, Apple Watch, Beats products, and HomePod. It also provides AppleCare support and cloud services; and operates various platforms, including the App Store that allow customers to discover and download applications and digital content, such as books, music, video, games, and podcasts, as well as advertising services include third-party licensing arrangements and its own advertising platforms. In addition, the company offers various subscription-based services, such as Apple Arcade, a game subscription service; Apple Fitness+, a personalized fitness service; Apple Music, which offers users a curated listening experience with on-demand radio stations; Apple News+, a subscription news and magazine service; Apple TV+, which offers exclusive original content; Apple Card, a co-branded credit card; and Apple Pay, a cashless payment service, as well as licenses its intellectual property. The company serves consumers, and small and mid-sized businesses; and the education, enterprise, and government markets. It distributes third-party applications for its products through the App Store. The company also sells its products through its retail and online stores, and direct sales force; and third-party cellular network carriers, wholesalers, retailers, and resellers. Apple Inc. was founded in 1976 and is headquartered in Cupertino, California.
How the Company Makes MoneyApple makes money primarily through the sale of its consumer electronics products, with the iPhone being its most significant revenue generator. The company also earns significant revenue from its services segment, which includes digital content sales, subscriptions, and licensing. This segment encompasses the App Store, Apple Music, iCloud, Apple TV+, and other services that leverage Apple's ecosystem of devices. Additionally, Apple generates revenue from sales of Mac computers, iPads, and wearables like the Apple Watch and AirPods. The company's retail operations, both online and through physical Apple Stores, also contribute to its earnings. Furthermore, Apple has strategic partnerships with various companies to enhance its product offerings and expand its service reach, further bolstering its revenue streams.

Apple Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Global Active Devices
Global Active Devices
Tracks the number of Apple devices actively in use worldwide, reflecting customer adoption, brand stickiness, and potential for recurring service revenue.
Chart InsightsApple's global active devices have grown steadily, reaching 2.35 billion, reflecting strong ecosystem engagement. The earnings call highlights record revenue and growth in services and emerging markets, underscoring Apple's strategic focus on expanding its installed base. Despite challenges in China and a decline in wearables revenue, the robust increase in active devices suggests sustained customer loyalty and potential for future revenue growth, particularly in services. The company's anticipation of continued growth in the March quarter, despite foreign exchange headwinds, indicates confidence in its diversified product and service offerings.
Data provided by:Main Street Data

Apple Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 01, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: -4.28%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 23, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a mixed picture with significant revenue and EPS records, along with strong growth in services, iPad, and Mac revenues. However, these positives were tempered by challenges in Wearables, Home, and Accessories, tariff-related costs, and a decline in China revenue. Despite these challenges, Apple's expansion plans in the U.S. and the performance of the iPhone 16 family provide optimism for future growth.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Revenue and EPS
Apple reported $95.4 billion in revenue, up 5% from a year ago, and a March quarter record diluted EPS of $1.65, up 8% year-over-year.
All-Time Services Revenue Record
Services achieved an all-time revenue record of $26.6 billion, up 12% from the prior year, with strong performance across all categories.
Growth in iPad and Mac Revenue
iPad revenue was $6.4 billion, up 15% year-over-year, and Mac revenue was $7.9 billion, up 7% year-over-year.
Expansion Plans in the U.S.
Apple announced plans to spend $500 billion over the next four years in the U.S., expanding teams and facilities in several states and opening a new factory in Texas.
iPhone Revenue Growth
iPhone revenue was $46.8 billion, up 2% year-over-year, with the iPhone 16 family contributing to the growth.
Negative Updates
Decline in Wearables, Home and Accessories Revenue
Revenue for Wearables, Home and Accessories was $7.5 billion, down 5% year-over-year.
Challenges Related to Tariffs
Tariffs are expected to add $900 million to costs in the June quarter, with uncertainty about future tariff impacts.
Impact of Foreign Exchange Headwinds
Foreign exchange headwinds negatively impacted revenue growth by approximately 2.5 percentage points.
China Revenue Decline
Revenue in China declined 2% year-over-year, with geopolitical tensions and foreign exchange impacting results.
Company Guidance
During the Apple Q2 Fiscal Year 2025 earnings call, Apple reported revenue of $95.4 billion, a 5% increase year-over-year, and a diluted EPS of $1.65, an 8% increase from the previous year. Services achieved an all-time revenue record of $26.6 billion, growing 12% compared to the prior year. iPhone revenue reached $46.8 billion, up 2% year-over-year, while Mac revenue was $7.9 billion, a 7% increase. iPad revenue rose 15% to $6.4 billion. However, revenue from Wearables, Home, and Accessories declined by 5% to $7.5 billion. The company also announced plans to invest $500 billion in the U.S. over the next four years, including expansion of facilities across several states and opening a new factory for advanced server manufacturing in Texas. Additionally, Apple expects to source over 19 billion chips domestically during calendar year 2025. The company is navigating potential costs from tariffs, estimating a $900 million impact for the June quarter, while continuing to focus on innovation and long-term growth.

Apple Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Apple's financial performance is robust, marked by high profitability and efficient cash flow management. Despite high leverage, the company maintains excellent returns for shareholders. The income statement highlights strong margins and revenue growth, reinforcing Apple's leadership in the industry.
Income Statement
88
Very Positive
Apple's income statement shows robust financial health with strong profitability metrics. The TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) gross profit margin stands at 46.64%, indicating efficient production and pricing strategy. The net profit margin is 24.30%, reflecting effective cost management and operational efficiency. Revenue growth of 2.39% from the previous period shows consistent upward momentum, albeit at a moderated pace. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are healthy at 31.82% and 34.68%, respectively, demonstrating solid core business performance. Overall, Apple's income statement reflects strong profitability and controlled growth, reinforcing its leadership in the consumer electronics industry.
Balance Sheet
75
Positive
Apple's balance sheet presents a mixed picture of financial stability and leverage. The debt-to-equity ratio is 1.47, indicating a relatively high level of leverage which could pose risks if not managed carefully. However, the return on equity (ROE) is an impressive 145.66%, showcasing exceptional returns for shareholders. The equity ratio of 20.16% suggests a modest proportion of equity financing relative to total assets. Despite the higher leverage, Apple's strong ROE and asset management highlight its effective balance sheet utilization.
Cash Flow
82
Very Positive
Apple's cash flow statement highlights strong cash generation capabilities. The TTM free cash flow is substantial, although it decreased by 9.47% compared to the previous year. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 1.13, indicating that Apple's operational activities are generating more cash than the reported net income, a positive sign of cash flow health. Additionally, the free cash flow to net income ratio is 1.01, underscoring efficient cash conversion from earnings. Despite the slight decline in free cash flow, Apple's cash flow management remains robust.
Breakdown
TTMSep 2024Sep 2023Sep 2022Sep 2021Sep 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
400.37B391.04B383.29B394.33B365.82B274.51B
Gross Profit
186.70B180.68B169.15B170.78B152.84B104.96B
EBIT
127.36B123.22B114.30B119.44B108.95B66.29B
EBITDA
138.87B134.66B125.82B130.54B120.23B77.34B
Net Income Common Stockholders
97.29B93.74B97.00B99.80B94.68B57.41B
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
48.50B65.17B61.55B48.30B62.64B90.94B
Total Assets
331.23B364.98B352.58B352.75B351.00B323.89B
Total Debt
98.19B119.06B111.09B132.48B136.52B122.28B
Net Debt
70.02B89.12B81.12B108.83B101.58B84.26B
Total Liabilities
264.44B308.03B290.44B302.08B287.91B258.55B
Stockholders Equity
66.80B56.95B62.15B50.67B63.09B65.34B
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
98.49B108.81B99.58B111.44B92.95B73.36B
Operating Cash Flow
109.56B118.25B110.54B122.15B104.04B80.67B
Investing Cash Flow
14.03B2.94B3.71B-22.35B-14.54B-4.29B
Financing Cash Flow
-129.34B-121.98B-108.49B-110.75B-93.35B-86.82B

Apple Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price203.92
Price Trends
50DMA
203.51
Positive
100DMA
217.04
Negative
200DMA
224.63
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-1.04
Negative
RSI
50.50
Neutral
STOCH
68.27
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AAPL, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 203.92 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 204.26, above the 50-day MA of 203.51, and below the 200-day MA of 224.63, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.04 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 50.50 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 68.27 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for AAPL.

Apple Risk Analysis

Apple disclosed 28 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Apple reported the most risks in the “Legal & Regulatory” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Apple Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
84
Outperform
$2.11T19.3734.79%0.46%13.02%37.73%
84
Outperform
$3.50T36.3533.61%0.69%14.13%12.10%
79
Outperform
$159.88B21.2714.32%0.36%1.77%18.85%
76
Outperform
$3.05T31.82138.02%0.49%4.91%-0.36%
72
Outperform
$77.75B18.15-179.12%1.64%7.67%
IBIBM
68
Neutral
$249.89B46.2521.91%2.49%1.23%-33.87%
HPHPQ
64
Neutral
$23.20B9.5284.33%4.49%2.08%-12.41%
62
Neutral
$11.80B10.37-7.29%2.91%7.39%-7.96%
* Technology Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AAPL
Apple
203.92
11.70
6.09%
GOOGL
Alphabet Class A
173.68
-0.70
-0.40%
HPQ
HP
25.18
-9.78
-27.97%
IBM
International Business Machines
268.87
103.50
62.59%
MSFT
Microsoft
470.38
45.77
10.78%
SONY
Sony Group
26.66
9.59
56.18%
DELL
Dell Technologies
113.75
-16.41
-12.61%

Apple Corporate Events

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Apple Completes $4.5 Billion Notes Issuance
Neutral
May 12, 2025

On May 12, 2025, Apple Inc. completed the issuance and sale of $4.5 billion in aggregate principal amount of notes with varying maturity dates from 2028 to 2035. These notes, issued under an underwriting agreement with major financial institutions, represent senior unsecured obligations and are part of Apple’s strategy to manage its debt portfolio, potentially impacting its financial flexibility and stakeholder interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (AAPL) stock is a Hold with a $211.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Apple stock, see the AAPL Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.