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Apple (AAPL)
NASDAQ:AAPL

Apple (AAPL) AI Stock Analysis

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AAPL

Apple

(NASDAQ:AAPL)

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Outperform 74 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:74Outperform
Price Target:
$289.00
▲(9.23% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:01/30/26
The score is driven primarily by very strong financial performance (best-in-class margins and massive free cash flow) and a constructive earnings outlook with record results. Offsetting factors are mixed near-term technical momentum and a premium valuation with a low dividend yield, plus execution risks from supply constraints and input-cost pressures.
Positive Factors
Elite profitability & cash generation
Sustained high gross and net margins underpin enduring free cash flow generation, allowing Apple to fund R&D, capex, and shareholder returns without relying on external financing. This durable cash conversion supports resilience through product cycles and funds ecosystem investments.
Growing, high‑margin Services business
Services deliver recurring, software‑driven revenue with higher margins and lower capital intensity than hardware. Continued double‑digit services growth meaningfully diversifies revenue, raises lifetime customer value, and smooths cyclical device revenue swings over the medium term.
Massive installed base & ecosystem lock‑in
A >2.5 billion active device base creates strong network effects for apps, services, and accessory makers, reinforcing customer retention and cross‑sell opportunities. This structural moat supports sustained monetization and high switching costs for users and enterprise customers.
Negative Factors
Elevated financial leverage
Higher leverage increases sensitivity to revenue or margin shocks despite strong cash flow. If device demand or margins compress, interest and principal commitments limit strategic flexibility, constrain buybacks/dividends, and raise refinancing risk in adverse macro scenarios.
Supply / manufacturing node constraints
Dependence on scarce advanced semiconductor nodes forces production prioritization and delays for mainstream models. Persisting node scarcity or execution shifts to premium SKUs can restrain unit growth, impede market share in mid tiers, and compress long‑term volume scalability.
Moderating top‑line growth in a mature market
A lower single‑digit organic revenue trajectory reflects market saturation in core device markets. That maturity limits upside from unit growth and puts more pressure on services and pricing to drive overall growth, making sustained above‑market expansion more challenging.

Apple (AAPL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Apple Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionApple Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets smartphones, personal computers, tablets, wearables, and accessories worldwide. The company offers iPhone, a line of smartphones; Mac, a line of personal computers; iPad, a line of multi-purpose tablets; and wearables, home, and accessories comprising AirPods, Apple TV, Apple Watch, Beats products, and HomePod. It also provides AppleCare support and cloud services; and operates various platforms, including the App Store that allow customers to discover and download applications and digital content, such as books, music, video, games, and podcasts, as well as advertising services include third-party licensing arrangements and its own advertising platforms. In addition, the company offers various subscription-based services, such as Apple Arcade, a game subscription service; Apple Fitness+, a personalized fitness service; Apple Music, which offers users a curated listening experience with on-demand radio stations; Apple News+, a subscription news and magazine service; Apple TV+, which offers exclusive original content; Apple Card, a co-branded credit card; and Apple Pay, a cashless payment service, as well as licenses its intellectual property. The company serves consumers, and small and mid-sized businesses; and the education, enterprise, and government markets. It distributes third-party applications for its products through the App Store. The company also sells its products through its retail and online stores, and direct sales force; and third-party cellular network carriers, wholesalers, retailers, and resellers. Apple Inc. was founded in 1976 and is headquartered in Cupertino, California.
How the Company Makes Money

Apple Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Revenue by Geography
Revenue by Geography
Breaks down revenue across different regions, revealing where the company is strongest and where it may face risk or growth potential due to local economic conditions or market share shifts.
Chart InsightsAmericas is the primary growth engine, while Europe and APAC show predictable, accelerating Q4 seasonality with progressively larger year‑end spikes—signaling strong demand and channel pull in those markets. Greater China’s mid‑year softness and the September‑quarter decline align with management’s supply‑constraint callout; the late‑year jump looks more like channel restocking than a durable recovery. Services and new product cycles are cushioning results, but China supply issues remain the main near‑term downside risk to consensus upside.
Data provided by:The Fly

Apple Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jan 29, 2026
(Q1-2026)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a strongly positive operational and financial picture: record revenue, record EPS, robust iPhone performance (23% YoY), services momentum (14% YoY), improving gross margins, growing installed base (>2.5B), and large shareholder returns. Offsetting risks include near-term supply constraints tied to advanced SoC manufacturing, upward pressure on memory prices expected to affect Q2 margins, a YoY decline in Mac revenue (-7%) driven by tough comps, modest wearables weakness (-2%) due to AirPods supply issues, and elevated R&D-driven operating expenses. Management provided constructive March guidance (13–16% revenue growth, 48–49% gross margin) that already incorporates some supply and memory risk. Overall, the positives (record results, broad-based product and service strength, strong cash/returns, strategic investments) substantially outweigh the near-term operational and input-cost headwinds.
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive Updates
Record-Breaking Quarter
Total revenue of $143.8B, up 16% year over year — Apple's best-ever quarter. Diluted EPS of $2.84, up 19% YoY. Net income of $42.1B and record operating cash flow of $53.9B.
iPhone Outperformance
iPhone revenue of $85.3B, up 23% YoY — an all-time record driven by the iPhone 17 family. Strong global demand with record upgraders and market share gains in multiple regions (Greater China +38% YoY; strong double-digit growth in India).
Services Momentum and Records
Services revenue of $30B, up 14% YoY and an all-time high. All-time records across advertising, cloud services, music, payment services, App Store and video; Apple TV viewership +36% YoY. App Store weekly users average >850M and developers have earned >$550B since 2008.
Large and Growing Installed Base with High Satisfaction
Active installed base exceeded 2.5 billion devices (all-time high). High customer satisfaction metrics cited: iPhone 17 family 99% (US), Mac 97% (US), iPad 98% (US), Wearables 96% (US). Significant proportion of buyers for Mac and iPad were new-to-product or upgraders.
Improving Gross Margins and Favorable Mix
Company gross margin at 48.2%, above guidance and up 100 bps sequentially. Products gross margin 40.7% (up 450 bps sequentially) and Services gross margin 76.5% (up 120 bps sequentially), driven by favorable product mix and leverage.
Strong Cash Position and Capital Returns
Cash and marketable securities of $145B, net cash of $54B (total debt $91B). Returned nearly $32B to shareholders in the quarter including $25B of buybacks (93M shares) and $3.9B in dividends.
Strategic Investments and Partnerships
Progress on major initiatives: $600B US investment commitment over four years, shipping servers from Houston for Apple Intelligence, domestic supply chain investments (20B US chips in 2025), Apple Manufacturing Academy expansion, and a collaboration with Google to develop next-generation Apple foundation models.
Product Category Highlights — iPad & Mac Installed Base Growth
iPad revenue $8.6B, up 6% YoY with an all-time high for upgraders and over half of buyers new to iPad. Mac installed base reached an all-time high, with nearly half of Mac purchasers being new to the product despite Mac revenue headwinds.
Negative Updates
Supply Constraints on Advanced Nodes
Company is currently supply-constrained for iPhone shipments due to limited availability of advanced-node (e.g., 3nm) SoC capacity. Management cannot predict when supply and demand will balance; March guidance (13–16% YoY revenue growth) factors in constrained iPhone supply.
Memory Price Inflation Risk
Memory had minimal impact on the December (Q1) gross margin but is expected to have a more material impact in Q2 and potentially beyond. Market memory pricing is increasing significantly, creating margin pressure risk if not mitigated.
Mac Revenue Decline vs. Prior-Year Compare
Mac revenue was $8.4B, down 7% YoY — a decline attributed to a difficult year-ago comparison (M4 MacBook Pro, Mac mini and iMac launches).
Wearables & Accessories Constraints
Wearables, home and accessories revenue of $11.5B was down 2% YoY. Management cited AirPods Pro 3 supply constraints that likely capped growth in the category.
Rising Operating Expenses
Operating expenses of $18.4B, up 19% YoY, driven by increased R&D and investments (including AI). Higher OpEx could weigh on near-term profit expansion if returns from investments are delayed.
Uncertain Details on AI Partnership & Capacity Needs
Announced partnership with Google to develop Apple foundation models, but terms were undisclosed. Management noted uncertainty in estimating future private cloud capacity needs and did not increase long-term CapEx guidance, leaving some execution and capacity risk for broad Apple Intelligence rollouts (e.g., personalized Siri).
Forward-Looking Risks and External Assumptions
March quarter outlook assumes current tariff rates/policies remain in effect and no deterioration in the macroeconomic outlook. Guidance also assumes memory/constraint impacts as noted — exposures to tariffs, macro shifts, and component markets remain key risk factors.
Company Guidance
For the March quarter Apple guided total company revenue to grow 13%–16% year over year (the outlook explicitly comprehends constrained iPhone supply), with services growth expected at a year‑over‑year rate similar to December’s (about mid‑teens), gross margin of 48%–49%, operating expenses of $18.4–$18.7 billion, other income and expense around $100 million (excluding mark‑to‑market on minority investments), and an effective tax rate of roughly 17.5%; the company noted the outlook assumes current tariff policies and no worsening of the global macroeconomic outlook, and the Board declared a $0.26 per‑share cash dividend payable 02/12/2026 (record 02/09/2026).

Apple Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Elite profitability and cash generation (TTM ~47% gross margin, ~27% net margin; ~$126B TTM free cash flow with strong growth) support a high score. The main offsets are elevated leverage (debt-to-equity ~1.5x) and a more mature growth profile despite the return to positive TTM revenue growth.
Income Statement
92
Very Positive
Apple’s income statement is exceptionally strong. Revenue is growing again in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) (+4.7%) after a softer FY2023, and profitability remains best-in-class with ~47% gross margin and ~27% net margin in both FY2025 and TTM. Operating profitability is also very high (EBIT margin ~32% in TTM), indicating strong pricing power and cost discipline. The main constraint on an even higher score is the relatively modest top-line growth rate versus earlier years, suggesting a more mature growth profile.
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
The balance sheet is solid but not without leverage considerations. Reported debt-to-equity is elevated (around 1.5x in FY2025/TTM, and higher in prior years), which increases dependence on continued strong earnings and cash generation. Offsetting this, equity and assets remain sizable, and shareholder returns are very strong (return on equity well above 1.5x), reflecting excellent profitability. Key watch item: higher leverage leaves less flexibility if demand or margins weaken.
Cash Flow
90
Very Positive
Cash flow performance is very strong. TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) operating cash flow (~$135B) and free cash flow (~$126B) are exceptionally large, and TTM free cash flow growth is strong (+27.3%). Free cash flow is also well supported by earnings (free cash flow is ~0.89x of net income in FY2025/TTM), indicating good cash conversion. The primary weakness is that operating cash flow relative to total debt is moderate (~0.67x in FY2025/TTM), meaning leverage still matters despite robust cash generation.
BreakdownTTMSep 2025Sep 2024Sep 2023Sep 2022Sep 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue435.62B416.16B391.04B383.29B394.33B365.82B
Gross Profit206.16B195.20B180.68B169.15B170.78B152.84B
EBITDA153.43B144.43B134.66B129.19B133.14B123.14B
Net Income117.78B112.01B93.74B97.00B99.80B94.68B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets379.30B359.24B364.98B352.58B352.75B351.00B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments66.91B54.70B65.17B61.55B48.30B62.64B
Total Debt90.51B112.38B119.06B123.93B132.48B136.52B
Total Liabilities291.11B285.51B308.03B290.44B302.08B287.91B
Stockholders Equity88.19B73.73B56.95B62.15B50.67B63.09B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow123.32B98.77B108.81B99.58B111.44B92.95B
Operating Cash Flow135.47B111.48B118.25B110.54B122.15B104.04B
Investing Cash Flow517.00M15.20B2.94B3.71B-22.35B-14.54B
Financing Cash Flow-120.97B-120.69B-121.98B-108.49B-110.75B-93.35B

Apple Risk Analysis

Apple disclosed 27 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Apple reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Apple Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
81
Outperform
$1.63T27.3930.24%0.32%22.17%-2.66%
74
Outperform
$3.88T33.45152.02%0.38%
74
Outperform
$3.67T28.0735.70%0.26%13.55%34.26%
74
Outperform
$2.97T25.0034.39%0.71%16.67%28.60%
65
Neutral
$77.39B15.581.45%10.81%31.67%
61
Neutral
$37.18B12.37-10.20%1.83%8.50%-7.62%
56
Neutral
$136.81B-111.5814.69%0.41%-2.47%6.49%
* Technology Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AAPL
Apple
264.58
18.55
7.54%
META
Meta Platforms
655.66
-10.37
-1.56%
GOOGL
Alphabet Class A
314.98
136.43
76.41%
MSFT
Microsoft
397.23
-4.62
-1.15%
SONY
Sony Group
21.93
-2.21
-9.14%
DELL
Dell Technologies
122.27
10.21
9.11%

Apple Corporate Events

Executive/Board Changes
Apple appoints Ben Borders as principal accounting officer
Neutral
Jan 2, 2026

Apple Inc. announced that its Board of Directors has appointed Ben Borders, 45, as Principal Accounting Officer effective January 1, 2026, as part of a previously disclosed transition plan, succeeding Chris Kondo in the role. Borders, who joined Apple in November 2010 and previously served as Director of Technical Accounting, assumed the position in January 2026, with the company noting that he has no disclosable family relationships or related-party transactions with Apple’s directors or executive officers under applicable regulations.

The most recent analyst rating on (AAPL) stock is a Sell with a $230.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Apple stock, see the AAPL Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board Changes
Apple Announces New General Counsel Appointment
Neutral
Dec 5, 2025

On December 4, 2025, Apple announced that Jennifer Newstead will become the company’s general counsel on March 1, 2026, succeeding Kate Adams, who has held the position since 2017. This leadership transition is significant for Apple’s legal and government affairs strategy, as Newstead will join the executive team and eventually lead Apple’s government affairs organization after Adams’ retirement in late 2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (AAPL) stock is a Buy with a $330.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Apple stock, see the AAPL Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jan 30, 2026