Geo Group (GEO) Earnings Dates, Call Summary & Reports

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Earnings Data

Report Date

May 12, 2026

Before Open (Confirmed)

Period Ending

2026 (Q1)

Consensus EPS Forecast

0.19

Last Year’s EPS

0.14

Same Quarter Last Year

Analyst Consensus

Strong Buy

Based on 3 Analysts Ratings

Earnings Call Summary

Q4 2025

Earnings Call Date:Feb 12, 2026|

% Change Since:

Earnings Call Sentiment|Positive

The call highlighted substantial operational wins and strong financial improvements: record new business awards (~$520M potential annualized revenue), major facility activations (~$400M annualized), Q4 and full-year 2025 profit and adjusted EBITDA growth, meaningful ISAP contract momentum and technology/case-management mix that can raise per-participant economics, plus balance sheet actions (asset sales, $100M revolver expansion, buybacks). However, near-term headwinds include higher operating and start-up expenses, temporary margin compression in monitoring, government funding and procurement uncertainty (potential shutdowns and warehouse initiative), a $38M litigation reserve, and Q1 2026 guidance below Q4 run-rate. Overall, the positive operational momentum, sizable contract wins, and improving liquidity/return of capital outweigh the near-term challenges and uncertainties.

Company Guidance

GEO issued full-year 2026 guidance calling for GAAP net income of $0.99–$1.07 per diluted share on revenues of $2.9–$3.1 billion and an effective tax rate of ~28%, with adjusted EBITDA of $490–$510 million and total capital expenditures of $120–$155 million; first‑quarter 2026 guidance is GAAP net income of $0.17–$0.19 per diluted share on revenues of $680–$690 million and adjusted EBITDA of $107–$112 million. Management said the outlook assumes some modest organic growth in H2 2026, includes start‑up expenses that temporarily compress margins (with expectations that margins and adjusted EBITDA run‑rate will normalize and improve exiting the year), and that Q1 is pressured by front‑loaded payroll taxes, two fewer days and no skip‑tracing revenue initially. They also noted liquidity and balance‑sheet context—$70 million cash, ~$1.65 billion total debt (current net debt ~ $1.5 billion) and a $100 million expansion of the revolving credit facility—while flagging upside from ISAP mix shifts, secured‑services growth and skip‑tracing ramp later in the year.

Record New Business Wins

Awarded new or expanded contracts representing up to approximately $520 million in new incremental annualized revenue (largest amount of new business in company history) with staggered activations expected to primarily normalize by year-end.

Largest Facility Start-Up Activity

Activated 5 facilities (including Adelanto reactivation) representing ~6,000 beds with combined annualized revenue value of approximately $400 million and the hiring/training of ~2,000 employees; ICE facility census rose from ~22,000 to ~24,000 (highest level ever).

Strong Quarterly and Annual Financial Performance

Q4 2025 net income attributable to GEO operations of ~$32 million ($0.23/diluted share) vs ~$15.5 million ($0.11) in Q4 2024; adjusted net income Q4 ~$35 million ($0.25) vs ~$18 million ($0.13) prior year; Q4 adjusted EBITDA ~$126 million vs ~$108 million prior year. Full-year 2025 net income ~$254 million ($1.82) on revenues ~$2.63 billion vs prior-year $32 million ($0.22) on $2.42 billion.

Revenue Growth by Segment

Owned and leased secure services revenues up ~$70 million or 23% in Q4 2025 vs prior-year Q4; managed-only contract revenues up ~$26 million or 17%; reentry and electronic monitoring/supervision revenues each increased ~3% YoY in Q4.

ISAP Contract and Technology Mix Upside

Secured a new 2-year ISAP contract (procured pricing for 361,000 participants in year 1 and higher participation in year 2 as disclosed), with a notable technology and case-management mix shift: GPS ankle monitor participants increased from ~17,000 to >42,000 while SmartLink app users declined to <135,000; increased case management coverage for ~106,000 individuals—mix shift likely to increase revenue and margins per participant.

New and Expanded Transportation & Support Services

Expanded secured ground and air transportation services valued at approximately $60 million in incremental annualized revenue; signed a new 5-year U.S. Marshals contract covering 26 federal judicial districts across 14 states.

Balance Sheet Strengthening and Liquidity Actions

Sold Lawton, OK for $312 million and Hector Garza, TX for $10 million; used proceeds to buy a 770-bed San Diego facility; expanded revolving credit facility by $100 million; closed 2025 with ~$70 million cash, total debt ~$1.65 billion and improved current net debt to ~ $1.5 billion.

Capital Return and Shareholder Actions

Launched share repurchase program (expanded to $500 million); repurchased ~5 million shares for ~$91 million by year-end 2025, reducing shares outstanding to ~136 million and leaving ~ $409 million available under authorization.

Clear 2026 Financial Guidance with Growth Targets

Issued 2026 guidance: GAAP net income $0.99–$1.07/sh on revenues $2.9–$3.1 billion; adjusted EBITDA $490–$510 million; FY 2026 capex $120–$155 million; Q1 2026 guidance: net income $0.17–$0.19/sh, revenues $680–$690 million, adj. EBITDA $107–$112 million.

Geo Group (GEO) Earnings, Revenues Date & History

The upcoming earnings date is based on a company’s previous reporting, and may be updated when the actual date is announced

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GEO Earnings History

Report Date	Fiscal Quarter	Forecast / EPS	Last Year's EPS	EPS YoY Change	Slides	Play Transcript
May 12, 2026	2026 (Q1)	0.19 / -	0.14	―	―	―
Feb 12, 2026	2025 (Q4)	0.24 / 0.25	0.13	92.31% (+0.12)
Nov 06, 2025	2025 (Q3)	0.23 / 0.25	0.21	19.05% (+0.04)
Aug 06, 2025	2025 (Q2)	0.17 / 0.22	0.23	-4.35% (-0.01)
May 07, 2025	2025 (Q1)	0.19 / 0.14	0.18	-22.22% (-0.04)
Feb 27, 2025	2024 (Q4)	0.22 / 0.13	0.29	-55.17% (-0.16)
Nov 07, 2024	2024 (Q3)	0.24 / 0.21	0.19	10.53% (+0.02)
Aug 07, 2024	2024 (Q2)	0.26 / 0.23	0.24	-4.17% (>-0.01)
May 07, 2024	2024 (Q1)	0.20 / 0.18	0.22	-18.18% (-0.04)
Feb 15, 2024	2023 (Q4)	0.17 / 0.29	0.34	-14.71% (-0.05)

The table shows recent earnings report dates and whether the forecast was beat or missed. See the change in forecast and EPS from the previous year.

Beat

Missed

GEO Earnings-Related Price Changes

Report Date	Price 1 Day Before	Price 1 Day After	Percentage Change
Feb 12, 2026	$15.83	$13.47	-14.91%
Nov 06, 2025	$16.81	$15.41	-8.33%
Aug 06, 2025	$25.84	$22.88	-11.46%
May 07, 2025	$30.37	$27.32	-10.04%

Earnings announcements can affect a stock’s price. This table shows the stock's price the day before and the day after recent earnings reports, including the percentage change.