Waterstone Financial (WSBF) Risk Analysis

Our mortgage banking operations provide a significant portion of our non-interest income. In addition to being affected by interest rates, the secondary mortgage markets are also subject to investor demand for residential mortgage loans and increased investor yield requirements for these loans.  These conditions may fluctuate or worsen in the future.  In light of current conditions, there is greater risk in retaining mortgage loans pending their sale to investors.  We believe our ability to retain fixed-rate residential mortgage loans is limited.  As a result, a prolonged period of secondary market illiquidity may reduce our loan production volumes and could have a material adverse effect on our financial condition and results of operations.

Our reliance on certificates of deposit to fund our operations has resulted in a higher cost of funds than would otherwise be the case if we had a higher percentage of demand deposits, savings deposits and money market accounts. In addition, if our certificates of deposit do not remain with us, we may be required to access other sources of funds, including loan sales, other types of deposits, including replacement certificates of deposit, securities sold under agreements to repurchase, advances from the Federal Home Loan Bank of Chicago and other borrowings. Depending on market conditions, we may be required to pay higher rates on such deposits or other borrowings than we currently pay on our certificates of deposit.

We operate in diverse markets and rely on the ability of our employees and systems to process a high number of transactions. Operational risk is the risk of loss resulting from our operations, including but not limited to, the risk of fraud by employees or persons outside our company, the execution of unauthorized transactions by employees, errors relating to transaction processing and technology, breaches of the internal control system and compliance requirements, and business continuation and disaster recovery. Insurance coverage may not be available for such losses, or where available, such losses may exceed insurance limits. This risk of loss also includes the potential legal actions that could arise as a result of an operational deficiency or as a result of noncompliance with applicable regulatory standards, adverse business decisions or their implementation, and customer attrition due to potential negative publicity. In the event of a breakdown in the internal control system, improper operation of systems or improper employee actions, we could suffer financial loss, face regulatory action, and suffer damage to our reputation.

On occasion we have employed various financial risk methodologies that limit, or "hedge," the adverse effects of rising or decreasing interest rates on our loan portfolios and short-term liabilities. We also engage in hedging strategies with respect to arrangements where our customers swap floating interest rate obligations for fixed interest rate obligations, or vice versa. Our hedging activity varies based on the level and volatility of interest rates and other changing market conditions. There are no perfect hedging strategies, and interest rate hedging may fail to protect us from loss. Moreover, hedging activities could result in losses if the event against which we hedge does not occur. Additionally, interest rate hedging could fail to protect us or adversely affect us because, among other things: - available interest rate hedging may not correspond directly with the interest rate risk for which protection is sought;- the duration of the hedge may not match the duration of the related liability;- the party owing money in the hedging transaction may default on its obligation to pay;- the credit quality of the party owing money on the hedge may be downgraded to such an extent that it impairs our ability to sell or assign our side of the hedging transaction;- the value of derivatives used for hedging may be adjusted from time to time in accordance with accounting rules to reflect changes in fair value; and/or - downward adjustments, or "mark-to-market" losses, would reduce our stockholders' equity.

A possible future downgrade of the sovereign credit ratings of the U.S. government and a decline in the perceived creditworthiness of U.S. government-related obligations could impact our ability to obtain funding that is collateralized by affected instruments, as well as affect the pricing of that funding when it is available. A downgrade may also adversely affect the market value of such instruments. We cannot predict if, when or how any changes to the credit ratings or perceived creditworthiness of these organizations will affect economic conditions. Such ratings actions could result in a significant adverse impact on us. Among other things, a downgrade in the U.S. government's credit rating could adversely impact the value of our securities portfolio and may trigger requirements that we post additional collateral for trades relative to these securities. A downgrade of the sovereign credit ratings of the U.S. government or the credit ratings of related institutions, agencies or instruments would significantly exacerbate the other risks to which we are subject and any related adverse effects on the business, financial condition and results of operations.

Liquidity is essential to our business. We rely on our ability to generate deposits and effectively manage the repayment of our liabilities to ensure that there is adequate liquidity to fund operations. An inability to raise funds through deposits, borrowings, the sale and maturities of loans and securities and other sources could have a substantial negative effect on liquidity. Our most important source of funds is our deposits. Deposit balances can decrease when customers perceive alternative investments as providing a better risk adjusted return, which are strongly influenced by such external factors as the direction of interest rates, local and national economic conditions and the availability and attractiveness of alternative investments. Further, the demand for deposits may be reduced due to a variety of factors such as negative trends in the banking sector, the level of and/or composition of our uninsured deposits, demographic patterns, changes in customer preferences, reductions in consumers' disposable income, the monetary policy of the FRB or regulatory actions that decrease customer access to particular products. If customers move money out of bank deposits and into other investments such as money market funds, we would lose a relatively low-cost source of funds, which would increase our funding costs and reduce net interest income. Any changes made to the rates offered on deposits to remain competitive with other financial institutions may also adversely affect profitability and liquidity. Other primary sources of funds consist of cash flows from operations, maturities and sales of investment securities and/or loans, brokered deposits, borrowings from the FHLB and/or FRB discount window, and unsecured borrowings. We also may borrow funds from third-party lenders, such as other financial institutions. Our access to funding sources in amounts adequate to finance or capitalize our activities, or on terms that are acceptable, could be impaired by factors that affect us directly or the financial services industry or economy in general, such as disruptions in the financial markets or negative views and expectations about the prospects for the financial services industry, a decrease in the level of our business activity as a result of a downturn in markets or by one or more adverse regulatory actions against us or the financial sector in general. Any decline in available funding could adversely impact our ability to originate loans, invest in securities, meet expenses, or to fulfill obligations such as meeting deposit withdrawal demands, any of which could have a material adverse impact on our liquidity, business, financial condition and results of operations.

Federal law requires that a holding company act as a source of financial and managerial strength to its subsidiary bank and to commit resources to support such subsidiary bank. Under the "source of strength" doctrine, the Federal Reserve Board may require a holding company to make capital injections into a troubled subsidiary bank and may charge the holding company with engaging in unsafe and unsound practices for failure to commit resources to a subsidiary bank. A capital injection may be required at times when the holding company may not have the resources to provide it and therefore may be required to borrow the funds or raise capital. Thus, any borrowing or funds needed to raise capital required to make a capital injection becomes more difficult and expensive and could have an adverse effect on our business, financial condition and results of operations.

The Federal Reserve Board decreased benchmark interest rates to near zero in response to the COVID-19 pandemic.  The Federal Reserve Board has reversed its policy of near zero interest rates given its concerns over inflation.  Market interest rates have risen significantly in response to the Federal Reserve Board's recent rate increases. As discussed below, the increase in market interest rates has already had and is expected to further have an adverse effect on our net interest income and profitability.

Our earnings and cash flows are dependent on our net interest income and income from our mortgage banking operations. Interest rates are highly sensitive to many factors that are beyond our control, including general economic conditions and policies of various governmental and regulatory agencies and, in particular, the Federal Reserve Board. Changes in market interest rates could have an adverse effect on our financial condition and results of operations. Decreases in interest rates often result in increased prepayments of loans and mortgage-related securities, as borrowers refinance their loans to reduce borrowings costs.  Under these circumstances, we are subject to reinvestment risk to the extent we are unable to reinvest the cash received from such prepayments in loans or other investments that have interest rates that are comparable to the interest rates on existing loans and securities. Changes in interest rates also affect the current fair value of our interest-earning investment securities portfolio. Generally, the value of securities moves inversely with changes in interest rates. At December 31, 2023, the fair value of our investment portfolio totaled $204.9 million. Net unrealized losses on these securities totaled $22.8 million at December 31, 2022.  During the year ended December 31, 2023, we incurred other comprehensive gains of $1.7 million, net of tax expense, related to net changes in unrealized holding losses in the available-for-sale investment securities portfolio. Increases in interest rates can also have an adverse impact on our results of operations, as has happened in recent periods.  A portion of our loans have adjustable interest rates.  While the higher payment amounts we would receive on these loans in a rising interest rate environment has increased our interest income, some borrowers may be unable to afford the higher payment amounts, which may result in a higher rate of loan delinquencies and defaults, as well as lower loan originations, as borrowers who may qualify for a loan based on certain mortgage repayments, may not be able to afford repayments based on higher interest rates for the same loan amounts.  The marketability of the underlying collateral also may be adversely affected in a high interest rate environment.  Furthermore, the interest income earned on interest-earning assets has not increased as rapidly as the interest paid on interest-bearing liabilities, which has compressed our interest rate spread and had a negative effect on our profitability. Any increase in market interest rates may further reduce our mortgage banking income. We generate revenues primarily from gains on the sale of mortgage loans to investors, and from the amortization of deferred mortgage servicing rights. We had mortgage banking income decrease of $23.9 million during the year ended December 31, 2023. We also earn interest on loans held for sale while awaiting delivery to our investors. In this rising and higher interest rate environment, our mortgage loan originations have decreased, resulting in fewer loans that are available for sale. This resulted in a decrease in interest income and a decrease in revenues from loan sales. In addition, our results of operations are affected by the amount of noninterest expense associated with mortgage banking activities, such as salaries and employee benefits, occupancy, equipment, data processing and other operating costs. During periods of reduced loan demand, our results of operations may continue to be adversely affected to the extent that we are unable to reduce expenses commensurate with the decline in mortgage loan origination activity. In addition, as a result of rising interest rates, we have experienced a shift in deposits from lower-cost (savings, NOW, and money market) accounts to higher-cost certificates of deposit. However, the rates we earn on our loans did not increase as rapidly during the year ended December 31, 2023, as we have a significant amount of fixed-rate residential real estate loans where the interest rates did not increase commensurate with the increase in market interest rates. Although we have implemented asset and liability management strategies designed to reduce the effects of changes in interest rates on our results of operations, any substantial, unexpected, prolonged change in market interest rate could have a material adverse effect on our financial condition and results of operations. Also, our interest rate models and assumptions likely may not fully predict or capture the impact of actual interest rate changes on our balance sheet. See "Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition" and "Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk-Management of Market Risk."

Under the current expected credit loss model, the allowance for credit losses on loans is a valuation allowance estimated at each balance sheet date in accordance with GAAP that is deducted from the loans' amortized cost basis to present the net amount expected to be collected on the loans. We estimate the ACL on loans based on the underlying assets' amortized cost basis, which is the amount at which the financing receivable is originated or acquired, adjusted for applicable accretion or amortization of premium, discount, and net deferred fees or costs, collection of cash, and charge-offs. Expected credit losses are reflected in the allowance for credit losses through a charge to credit loss expense. When we deem all or a portion of a financial asset to be uncollectible the appropriate amount is written off and the ACL is reduced by the same amount. We apply judgment to determine when a financial asset is deemed uncollectible; however, generally speaking, an asset will be considered uncollectible no later than when all efforts at collection have been exhausted. Subsequent recoveries, if any, are credited to the ACL when received. We measure expected credit losses of financial assets on a collective (pool) basis, when the financial assets share similar risk characteristics. Depending on the nature of the pool of financial assets with similar risk characteristics, we use loss-rate methods to estimate expected credit losses. Our methodologies for estimating the ACL consider available relevant information about past events, current conditions, and reasonable and supportable forecasts. The methodologies apply historical loss information, adjusted for asset-specific characteristics, economic conditions at the measurement date, and forecasts about future economic conditions expected to exist through the contractual lives of the financial assets that are reasonable and supportable, to the identified pools of financial assets with similar risk characteristics for which the historical loss experience was observed. Loans that do not share risk characteristics are evaluated on an individual basis. For collateral dependent financial assets where we have determined that foreclosure of the collateral is probable, or where the borrower is experiencing financial difficulty and we expect repayment of the financial asset to be from the sale of the collateral, expected credit losses are calculated as the amount by which the amortized costs basis of the financial asset exceeds the fair value of the underlying collateral less estimated cost to sell. The ACL may be zero if the fair value of the collateral at the measurement date exceeds the amortized cost basis of the financial asset.