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Voyager Therapeutics Inc. (VYGR)
:VYGR

Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR) AI Stock Analysis

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Voyager Therapeutics

(NASDAQ:VYGR)

58Neutral
Voyager Therapeutics shows potential with its strong cash position and promising advancements in tau-targeting therapies. However, challenges in revenue stability and cash flow management, combined with technical indicators showing downward pressure, suggest cautious optimism. The stock's undervaluation and positive earnings call guidance contribute positively but are offset by financial inconsistencies.
Positive Factors
Clinical Development
The VY7523 anti-tau antibody is advancing in clinical development with a favorable safety profile, as demonstrated by the absence of serious adverse events in trials.
Pipeline Progress
The company has a robust pipeline and multiple upcoming catalysts, which are expected to add significant value.
Strategic Partnerships
Voyager Therapeutics remains well-capitalized, with a cash runway into mid-2027, and its strategic partnerships provide additional potential milestone payments of up to $8.2 billion.
Negative Factors
Data Readouts Timeline
The timeline for the initial tau imaging data remains unchanged, which means a longer wait for data readouts.
Financial Performance
FY24 total revenue of $80mm was below consensus expectations.
Research and Development Expenses
R&D of $127.4mm was above consensus expectations, indicating higher than expected research and development expenses.

Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Voyager Therapeutics Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionVoyager Therapeutics, Inc., a gene therapy company, focuses on the development of treatments and next-generation platform technologies. The company's lead clinical candidate is the VY-AADC, which is in open-label Phase 1 clinical trial for the treatment of Parkinson's disease. Its preclinical programs comprise VY-SOD102 for the treatment of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis; VY-HTT01 for Huntington's disease; VY-FXN01 for Friedreich's ataxia; and Tau program for the treatment of tauopathies, including Alzheimer's disease, progressive supranuclear palsy, and frontotemporal dementia, as well as for spinal muscular atrophy. The company has collaboration and license agreements with Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc., Pfizer Inc., and Novartis Pharma, A.G. for the research, development, and commercialization of adeno-associated virus gene therapy products. Voyager Therapeutics, Inc. was incorporated in 2013 and is headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts.
How the Company Makes MoneyVoyager Therapeutics generates revenue primarily through strategic collaborations and licensing agreements with larger pharmaceutical companies, where it provides access to its AAV technology platform and intellectual property in exchange for upfront payments, milestone payments, and royalties on future product sales. Additionally, the company may receive government grants and research funding to support its development programs. These partnerships and funding arrangements are critical to sustaining its research and development activities.

Voyager Therapeutics Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Voyager Therapeutics shows a volatile revenue trajectory, with positive gross profit margin but inconsistent EBIT and net profit margins. The balance sheet is strong with manageable leverage, but cash flow challenges persist due to negative free cash flow and reliance on external financing.
Income Statement
45
Neutral
Voyager Therapeutics shows a volatile revenue trajectory, with significant revenue growth in 2023 but a sharp decline in 2024. The gross profit margin is positive, indicating effective cost management. However, the company has experienced inconsistent EBIT and net profit margins, indicating challenges in maintaining operational efficiency. The declining revenue and negative net income in 2024 are concerning for future profitability.
Balance Sheet
60
Neutral
The balance sheet reveals a strong equity position with a debt-to-equity ratio that indicates manageable leverage. Stockholders' equity has increased over the years, reflecting a robust equity ratio. However, the company's total liabilities have grown, which could pose risks if not managed carefully. Return on equity has been inconsistent, reflecting fluctuating profitability.
Cash Flow
50
Neutral
Cash flow analysis shows a challenging situation with negative free cash flow in recent years, although the company reported positive operating cash flow in 2023. The free cash flow to net income ratio is weak, indicating a need for improved cash management. Financing activities have provided liquidity, but reliance on external financing could be a concern if not controlled.
Breakdown
Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
80.00M250.01M40.91M37.41M171.13M
Gross Profit
80.00M245.57M34.72M-36.37M62.38M
EBIT
-83.29M122.01M-50.84M-73.62M27.38M
EBITDA
-83.29M126.45M-44.65M-68.45M31.20M
Net Income Common Stockholders
-65.00M132.33M-46.41M-66.03M36.74M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
266.68M230.88M118.85M132.54M181.14M
Total Assets
393.05M351.28M159.36M193.85M261.58M
Total Debt
43.73M20.29M23.13M44.18M47.61M
Net Debt
-27.64M-48.51M-75.83M-73.25M-56.83M
Total Liabilities
93.29M114.96M100.34M98.80M107.26M
Stockholders Equity
299.76M236.32M59.02M95.06M154.32M
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
-18.83M74.66M-15.00M-55.13M-108.81M
Operating Cash Flow
-15.31M77.92M-12.51M-53.52M-96.72M
Investing Cash Flow
-94.86M-141.64M-7.34M65.91M113.00M
Financing Cash Flow
114.02M33.65M1.11M612.00K3.16M

Voyager Therapeutics Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price3.65
Price Trends
50DMA
4.52
Negative
100DMA
5.31
Negative
200DMA
6.31
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.22
Negative
RSI
34.42
Neutral
STOCH
14.91
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For VYGR, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 3.65 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.94, below the 50-day MA of 4.52, and below the 200-day MA of 6.31, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.22 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 34.42 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 14.91 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for VYGR.

Voyager Therapeutics Risk Analysis

Voyager Therapeutics disclosed 72 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Voyager Therapeutics reported the most risks in the “Tech & Innovation” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Voyager Therapeutics Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (49)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
58
Neutral
$201.51M5.05-24.25%-68.00%-134.79%
49
Neutral
$6.85B0.81-52.91%2.50%19.94%1.20%
46
Neutral
$3.17B-19.20%-89.95%-123.71%
41
Neutral
$184.26M-187.83%-67.20%64.66%
39
Underperform
$39.74M-295.35%184.12%31.92%
39
Underperform
$103.72M-98.10%-58.64%-40.05%
39
Underperform
$835.39M-54.00%59.55%3.09%
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
VYGR
Voyager Therapeutics
3.65
-6.89
-65.37%
SGMO
Sangamo Biosciences
0.82
0.21
34.43%
BLUE
Bluebird Bio
4.08
-20.72
-83.55%
EDIT
Editas Medicine
1.25
-6.03
-82.83%
NTLA
Intellia Therapeutics
8.07
-19.15
-70.35%
CRSP
Crispr Therapeutics AG
36.99
-31.19
-45.75%

Voyager Therapeutics Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date: Mar 11, 2025 | % Change Since: -8.06% | Next Earnings Date: May 13, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call presented a positive outlook with significant advancements and strong financial positioning. Despite a setback in the SOD1 silencing program, the progress in tau-targeting therapies and potential substantial milestone payments from partnerships highlight a promising future.
Highlights
Strong Cash Position and Potential Milestone Payments
Voyager Therapeutics reported $332 million in cash as of the end of 2024, with potential future milestone payments totaling $8.2 billion from partnerships.
Advancements in Tau Silencing Program
The tau silencing gene therapy program, VY1706, moved forward into IND-enabling studies, showing 50% to 73% knockdown of tau messenger RNA in non-human primate studies.
Positive Results for Anti-Tau Antibody VY7523
VY7523 performed well in a single ascending dose study with no serious adverse events, showing dose-proportional pharmacokinetics and a CSF to serum ratio of 0.3%.
Promising External Data Supporting Anti-Tau Strategies
UCB's bepranemab demonstrated impact on tau accumulation, and further data from Merck and other companies are anticipated, which may support the potential of tau-targeted therapies.
Progress in Partnered Programs with Neurocrine
Two programs with Neurocrine are expected to enter the clinic or have an IND filed this year, indicating positive collaboration progress.
Lowlights
Setback in SOD1 Silencing Gene Therapy Program
The SOD1 silencing gene therapy program moved back into the research stage due to the payload not meeting the target profile, requiring the identification of a new payload.
Challenges in Establishing Capsid Proof of Concept
The company is looking to establish capsid proof of concept through upcoming programs with Neurocrine, following complications with the SOD1 program.
Company Guidance
During the Voyager Therapeutics Fourth Quarter and Year-End 2024 Financial Results Conference Call, the company provided several key metrics and updates about their progress and future plans. Voyager reported $332 million in cash as of the end of 2024 and highlighted potential future milestone payments totaling $8.2 billion, emphasizing the significance of their partnerships as a source of non-dilutive revenue. The company is advancing its tau silencing gene therapy, VY1706, into IND-enabling studies, targeting IND submission in 2026, with promising non-human primate study results showing 50% to 73% knockdown of tau messenger RNA across the brain. Additionally, the anti-tau antibody, VY7523, showed favorable results in a single ascending dose study, with a CSF to serum ratio of 0.3%. Voyager expects initial tau PET data from a multiple ascending dose study in Alzheimer's patients in the second half of 2026. They also noted their $2.9 billion in developmental milestones and guidance extending their cash runway to mid-2027.
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.