Ventyx Biosciences (VTYX) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.00B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 4.29M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 2.67
• Revenue Growth: N/A
• EPS Growth: 36.65%
• Country: US
• Employees: 81
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Biotechnology
• EPS (TTM): -0.32
• Shares Outstanding: 71,750,145
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,236,301
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 4,287,720
• PEG Ratio: 0.03
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.59
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -1.14
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.98
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -8.62
• 1Y Price Target: $13.38
• Price Target Upside: -4.15% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 8
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 57 Neutral
• Price Target: $14.50 ▲(3.87% Upside)

The score is held back primarily by weak fundamentals typical of a development-stage biotech (no revenue, ongoing losses, and negative free cash flow), despite a low-debt balance sheet. Offsetting this, technicals show strong positive momentum with price well above key moving averages, and corporate events are supportive due to the announced all-cash acquisition by Eli Lilly, which reduces standalone business risk and increases visibility on value realization. Valuation remains constrained by losses (negative P/E) and no dividend support.

Positive Factors

Acquisition by Eli Lilly

The definitive all-cash transaction materially de-risks corporate execution and provides a clear liquidity outcome for stakeholders. Integration with Lilly gives Ventyx programs access to greater development, regulatory and commercialization resources, supporting long-term program advancement.

Positive Phase 2 data (VTX3232)

Robust Phase 2 biomarker reductions and a clean safety profile for a CNS-penetrant NLRP3 inhibitor materially de-risk that program. Durable clinical proof increases the likelihood of later-stage success, enhances asset value and underpins strategic rationale for partnerships or acquisition.

Low leverage / clean balance sheet

A conservative capital structure with minimal debt reduces financial strain from interest and covenants, preserving optionality for development spending or strategic transactions. Low leverage makes the company an easier integration target and limits downside from financing distress.

Negative Factors

Pre-revenue cash burn

Zero product revenue and substantial net losses mean the business relies on external capital or strategic deals to fund R&D. Persistent pre-revenue status limits internal reinvestment and long-term sustainability absent a successful commercialization or continued financing.

Negative operating cash flow

Consistently negative operating and free cash flow indicate the company is not self-sustaining and must rely on financings or transactions to continue operations. Even with year-over-year improvement, sustained negative cash flow is a structural vulnerability for standalone continuity.

Eroding equity / funding dependence

Material equity depletion over a short period signals dilution risk or need for external capital. Continued erosion constrains strategic flexibility and increases the probability of financing-driven dilution or dependency on M&A as a primary path to sustain development programs.

Ventyx Biosciences Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Ventyx Biosciences, Inc., a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, develops small molecule product candidates for inflammatory diseases and autoimmune disorders. The company's lead product candidate is VTX958, a tyrosine kinase type 2 inhibitor that is in phase I clinical trials for the treatment of immune-mediated diseases, such as psoriasis, inflammatory bowel disease, psoriatic arthritis, Crohn's disease, and lupus. It also develops VTX002, an oral sphingosine 1 phosphate receptor 1 modulator that is in phase II clinical trials for the treatment of ulcerative colitis; and VTX2735, a peripheral-targeted NOD-like receptor protein 3 (NLRP3) inflammasome inhibitor for the treatment of systemic inflammatory diseases, such as cardiovascular, hepatic, renal, and rheumatologic diseases which is in phase I clinical trials. In addition, the company develops CNS-penetrant NLRP3 inhibitors for the treatment of Alzheimer disease, Parkinson disease, amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, and multiple sclerosis. Ventyx Biosciences, Inc. was incorporated in 2018 and is based in Encinitas, California.

How the Company Makes Money

Ventyx Biosciences generates revenue primarily through partnerships, collaborations, and licensing agreements with larger pharmaceutical companies. These partnerships often involve upfront payments, milestone payments contingent on the achievement of specific development or regulatory objectives, and royalties on sales of any successfully commercialized products. Additionally, Ventyx may receive funding from grants or government programs to support its research efforts. As a clinical-stage company, Ventyx does not yet generate revenue from product sales, as its therapies are still in the development and approval stages.

Ventyx Biosciences Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Pre-revenue with sizable losses (TTM net loss ~$106.6M) and persistent cash burn (TTM FCF ~-$87.9M) keeps the financial profile weak, despite improved loss and operating cash flow versus 2024. Balance sheet leverage is low (debt-to-equity ~0.05), but equity has declined (from ~$254.0M in 2024 to ~$191.4M TTM), reflecting ongoing funding dependence.

Income Statement

The company remains pre-revenue (revenue is $0 across annual periods and TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months)), so results are driven by operating spend rather than commercialization. Losses are sizable, with TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) net loss of about $106.6M and negative operating profit, though losses have narrowed versus 2024 (net loss improved from ~$135.1M to ~$106.6M TTM), signaling some cost discipline. Overall profitability is still weak and visibility into near-term revenue is limited, which keeps the score low despite the improving loss trajectory.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is relatively clean for a development-stage biotech, with low leverage (TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) debt of ~$10.0M against equity of ~$191.4M; debt-to-equity ~0.05). However, equity has declined from ~$254.0M in 2024 to ~$191.4M TTM, consistent with ongoing losses and cash burn. While the capital structure is conservative, continued losses could pressure equity further over time.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is weak, with negative operating cash flow and negative free cash flow in every period shown. TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) operating cash flow is about -$87.8M and free cash flow is about -$87.9M, improving versus 2024 (operating cash flow about -$130.9M), but still meaningfully negative. Free cash flow also deteriorated versus the prior period (TTM free cash flow growth of about -16.9%), highlighting ongoing funding dependence despite some year-over-year burn reduction.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Gross Profit	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
EBITDA	-113.62M	-147.10M	-207.05M	-112.67M	-83.62M	0.00
Net Income	-106.61M	-135.12M	-192.96M	-108.43M	-83.75M	-28.17M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	211.47M	276.56M	277.69M	371.40M	291.48M	245.00K
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	192.64M	217.32M	252.22M	317.94M	258.58M	244.00K
Total Debt	10.02M	10.79M	12.51M	1.56M	0.00	12.65M
Total Liabilities	20.10M	22.52M	33.77M	17.50M	12.28M	30.90M
Stockholders Equity	191.36M	254.04M	243.92M	353.89M	279.20M	-30.65M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-87.87M	-131.11M	-167.04M	-99.05M	-38.91M	-6.20M
Operating Cash Flow	-87.75M	-130.87M	-166.52M	-98.77M	-38.65M	-6.20M
Investing Cash Flow	57.66M	-15.51M	100.94M	-74.93M	-214.37M	0.00
Financing Cash Flow	246.00K	122.11M	53.33M	167.77M	323.55M	6.13M

Ventyx Biosciences Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 13.96
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For VTYX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 13.96 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 13.71, above the 50-day MA of 10.78, and above the 200-day MA of 5.13, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.02 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 74.03 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 47.19 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for VTYX.

Ventyx Biosciences Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
VTYX	57 Neutral	$1.00B	-9.30	-45.35%	―	―	36.65%
KYTX	54 Neutral	$475.89M	-2.24	-70.82%	―	―	-21.22%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%
FHTX	49 Neutral	$342.70M	-4.79	―	―	-3.91%	37.89%
IMMP	48 Neutral	$419.34M	-10.41	-35.86%	―	―	-17.16%
SLN	47 Neutral	$231.45M	-2.90	―	―	―	―
VYGR	46 Neutral	$222.40M	-1.80	-46.09%	―	-80.88%	-388.61%

Ventyx Biosciences Corporate Events

Ventyx Biosciences Sets Special Cash Bonuses Amid Lilly Merger

On January 21, 2026, Ventyx Biosciences’ board and compensation committee approved special 2026 cash bonus awards for key executives, including President and CEO Raju Mohan, in lieu of regular 2026 equity grants that were not issued due to the timing of an anticipated merger with Eli Lilly and Company. The awards provide monthly cash accruals from January 2, 2026 until the merger closing date, up to April 7, 2027, and are payable in a lump sum after the merger closes, contingent on continuous service and execution of a release of claims, with maximum potential payouts ranging from approximately $449,000 to $2.0 million; if the merger does not close by the deadline, it is expected that stock options will be recommended instead, underscoring Ventyx’s efforts to retain and incentivize senior leadership through a period of strategic transition.

The most recent analyst rating on (VTYX) stock is a Buy with a $16.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ventyx Biosciences stock, see the VTYX Stock Forecast page.

Eli Lilly to Acquire Ventyx Biosciences in Cash Deal

On January 7, 2026, Eli Lilly and Company agreed to acquire Ventyx Biosciences in an all-cash transaction valuing the target at about $1.2 billion, paying $14.00 per share of common stock and $1,400.00 per share of preferred stock, subject to customary conditions including shareholder and regulatory approvals. The deal, which carries a roughly 62% premium to Ventyx’s 30-day volume-weighted average share price and has already been approved by both companies’ boards, will make Ventyx a wholly owned subsidiary of Lilly, align its inflammation-focused pipeline with Lilly’s broader cardiometabolic, neurodegenerative and autoimmune franchise, and deliver cash consideration to equity holders under detailed provisions for stock, options and restricted stock units, while binding key insiders holding about 10% of the stock to support the transaction and establishing a $44 million termination fee to govern potential competing bids.

The most recent analyst rating on (VTYX) stock is a Buy with a $20.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ventyx Biosciences stock, see the VTYX Stock Forecast page.