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Vistra Energy (VST)
NYSE:VST
Risk Overview Q4, 2024
Risk Distribution
30% Production
28% Finance & Corporate
17% Legal & Regulatory
9% Ability to Sell
9% Macro & Political
7% Tech & Innovation
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
This chart displays the stock's most recent risk distribution according to category. TipRanks has identified 6 major categories: Finance & corporate, legal & regulatory, macro & political, production, tech & innovation, and ability to sell.
Risk Change Over Time
S&P500 Average
Sector Average
Risks removed
Risks added
Risks changed
Vistra Energy Risk Factors
New Risk (0)
Risk Changed (0)
Risk Removed (0)
No changes from previous report
The chart shows the number of risks a company has disclosed. You can compare this to the sector average or S&P 500 average.
The quarters shown in the chart are according to the calendar year (January to December). Businesses set their own financial calendar, known as a fiscal year. For example, Walmart ends their financial year at the end of January to accommodate the holiday season.
The quarters shown in the chart are according to the calendar year (January to December). Businesses set their own financial calendar, known as a fiscal year. For example, Walmart ends their financial year at the end of January to accommodate the holiday season.
Risk Highlights Q4, 2024
Main Risk Category
Production
With 14 Risks
Production
With 14 Risks
Number of Disclosed Risks
46
-2
From last reportS&P 500 Average: 31
46
-2
From last reportS&P 500 Average: 31
Recent Changes
1Risks added
2Risks removed
2Risks changed
Since Dec 2024
1Risks added
2Risks removed
2Risks changed
Since Dec 2024
Number of Risk Changed
2
+2
From last reportS&P 500 Average: 3
2
+2
From last reportS&P 500 Average: 3
See the risk highlights of Vistra Energy in the last period.
Risk Word Cloud
The most common phrases about risk factors from the most recent report. Larger texts indicate more widely used phrases.
Risk Factors Full Breakdown - Total Risks 46
Production
Total Risks: 14/46 (30%)Above Sector Average
Manufacturing5 | 10.9%
Manufacturing - Risk 1
Luminant's lignite mining reclamation activity will require significant resources as existing and retired mining operations are reclaimed over the next several years.Manufacturing - Risk 2
We may suffer material losses, costs and liabilities due to operation risks, regulatory risks, and the risk of nuclear accidents arising from the ownership and operation of the nuclear generation facilities.Changed
We own and operate nuclear generation facilities in Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. The ownership and operation of nuclear generation facilities involves certain risks. These risks include:
- unscheduled outages or unexpected costs due to equipment, mechanical, structural, cybersecurity, insider threat, third-party compromise or other problems;- inadequacy or lapses in maintenance protocols;- the impairment of reactor operation and safety systems due to human error or force majeure;- the costs of, and liabilities relating to, storage, handling, treatment, transport, release, use and disposal of radioactive materials;- the costs of procuring nuclear fuel, including impacts from trade restrictions such as tariffs, embargoes, and quotas (see Item 7. Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition, and Results of Operations – Significant Activities and Events, and Items Influencing Future Performance – Macroeconomic Conditions);- the costs of storing and maintaining spent nuclear fuel at our on-site dry cask storage facility;- terrorist or cybersecurity attacks by nation-states or other threat actors and the cost to protect and recover against any such attack;- the impact of a natural disaster;- financial risk associated with retrospective insurance premium that could become due under secondary coverage required by the Price Anderson Act;- limitations on the amounts and types of insurance coverage commercially available; and - uncertainties with respect to the technological and financial aspects of modifying or decommissioning nuclear facilities at the end of their useful lives.
Our financial performance could be materially and negatively affected by matters arising from our ownership and operation of nuclear facilities, including any prolonged unavailability of any of our nuclear generation facilities. The following are among the more significant related risks:
- Operational Risk. Operations at any generation facility could degrade to the point where the facility would have to be shut down. If such degradations were to occur at a nuclear generation facility, the process of identifying and correcting the causes of the operational downgrade to return the facility to operation could require significant time and expense, resulting in both lost revenue and increased fuel and purchased power expense to meet supply commitments. Furthermore, a shut-down or failure at any other nuclear generation facility could cause regulators to require a shut-down or reduced availability at our nuclear generation facilities.
- Regulatory Risk. The NRC may modify, suspend or revoke licenses and impose civil penalties for failure to comply with the Atomic Energy Act, the regulations under it or the terms of the licenses of nuclear generation facilities. Unless extended, as to which no assurance can be given, the NRC operating license for the unit at the Perry Facility will expire in 2026, and is pending a license renewal application subject to review by the NRC. Changes in regulations by the NRC could require a substantial increase in capital expenditures or result in increased operating or decommissioning costs.
- Spent Nuclear Fuel Storage. Our nuclear operations produce various types of nuclear waste materials, including spent nuclear fuel. The availability of a national repository for the storage of spent nuclear fuel and the timing of that facility opening will significantly affect the costs associated with storage of spent nuclear fuel and the ultimate amounts received from the DOE to reimburse us for these costs. Any regulatory action relating to the timing and availability of a repository for spent nuclear fuel could adversely affect our ability to decommission fully our nuclear units. We cannot predict whether a fee may be established or to what extent in the future for spent nuclear fuel disposal.
- Decommissioning Obligation and Funding. NRC regulations require that licensees of nuclear generating facilities demonstrate reasonable assurance that funds will be available in certain minimum amounts at the end of the life of the facility to decommission the facility.
Actual costs to decommission our nuclear facilities may substantially exceed our estimates as a result of changes in the approach and timing of decommissioning activities, changes in decommissioning costs, changes in federal or state regulatory requirements, other changes in our estimates or ability to effectively execute on our planned decommissioning activities.
Forecasting trust fund investment earnings and costs to decommission nuclear generating stations requires significant judgment, and actual results could differ significantly from current estimates. In addition, financial market performance directly affects the asset values in the NDT trust funds. If the investments held by our PJM NDT funds are not sufficient to fund the decommissioning of our nuclear units, we could be required to take steps, such as providing financial guarantees through letters of credit or parent company guarantees or making additional contributions to the trusts, which could be significant, to ensure that the trusts are adequately funded and that current and future NRC minimum funding requirements are met.
- Nuclear Accident Risk. Although the safety record of our nuclear generation facilities generally has been very good, accidents and other unforeseen problems have occurred at nuclear stations both in the U.S. and elsewhere. The consequences of an accident can be severe and include loss of life, injury, lasting negative health impacts and property damage. Any accident, or perceived accident, could result in significant liabilities that may exceed our resources, including insurance coverages, and could damage our reputation. Such liabilities to third parties are currently covered by a primary layer of financial protection required by the Price Anderson Act in the form of insurance carried by the owners of each nuclear facility and by a secondary layer of insurance coverage into which each nuclear licensee in the country is required to contribute in the event of an accident at any facility which exceeds the primary level of coverage for that facility. Our potential exposure for the secondary layer of coverage is currently capped at $165.9 million per reactor but is subject to adjustment for inflation, and the total retrospective premium per reactor per incident is capped at $24.7 million in any one year. Any such resulting liability from a nuclear accident could exceed our resources, including insurance coverage, and could ultimately result in the suspension or termination of power generation from the impacted facility. Such accidents could also result in property damage to our nuclear plant and equipment, which could exceed coverage available under insurance provided by Nuclear Electric Insurance Limited. If a serious nuclear incident were to occur, our business, reputation, financial condition and results of operations could be materially adversely affected.
Manufacturing - Risk 3
The operation and maintenance of power generation facilities and related mining operations are capital intensive and involve significant risks that could adversely affect our results of operations, liquidity and financial condition.The operation and maintenance of power generation facilities and related mining operations involve many risks, including, as applicable, start-up risks, breakdown or failure of facilities, equipment or processes, operator error, lack of sufficient capital to maintain the facilities, the dependence on a specific fuel source, the ability to timely obtain parts for equipment repairs, the inability to transport our product to our customers in an efficient manner due to the lack of transmission capacity or the impact of unusual or adverse weather conditions or other natural events, or terrorist attacks, as well as the risk of performance below expected levels of output, efficiency or reliability, the occurrence of any of which could result in substantial lost revenues and/or increased expenses. A significant number of our facilities were constructed many years ago. Older generation equipment, even if maintained or refurbished in accordance with good engineering practices, may require significant capital expenditures to operate at peak efficiency or reliability. The risk of increased maintenance and capital expenditures arises from (a) increased starting and stopping of generation equipment due to the volatility of the competitive generation market and the prospect of continuing low wholesale electricity prices that may not justify sustained or year-round operation of all our generation facilities, (b) any unexpected failure to generate power, including failure caused by equipment breakdown or unplanned outage (whether by order of applicable governmental regulatory authorities, the impact of weather events or natural disasters or otherwise), (c) damage to facilities due to storms, natural disasters, wars, terrorist or cybersecurity attacks, including nation-state attacks or organized cybercrime and other catastrophic events and (d) the passage of time and normal wear and tear. Further, our ability to successfully and timely complete routine maintenance or other capital projects at our existing facilities is contingent upon many variables and subject to substantial risks. Should any such efforts be unsuccessful, we could be subject to additional costs or losses and write downs of our investment in the project.
We cannot be certain of the level of capital expenditures that will be required due to changing environmental and safety laws and regulations (including changes in the interpretation or enforcement thereof), needed facility repairs. The unexpected requirement of large capital expenditures could have a material adverse effect on us. Moreover, if we significantly modify a unit, we may be required to install the best available control technology or to achieve the lowest achievable emission rates as such terms are defined under the new source review provisions of the CAA, which would likely result in substantial additional capital expenditures.
In addition, unplanned outages at any of our generation facilities, whether because of equipment breakdown or otherwise, typically increase our operation and maintenance expenses and may reduce our revenues as a result of selling fewer MWh or non-performance penalties or require us to incur significant costs as a result of running one of our higher cost units or to procure replacement power at spot market prices in order to fulfill contractual commitments. If we do not have adequate liquidity to meet margin and collateral requirements, we may be exposed to significant losses, may miss significant opportunities and may have increased exposure to the volatility of spot markets, which could have a material adverse effect on us. Further, our inability to operate our generation facilities efficiently, manage capital expenditures and costs, and generate earnings and cash flows from our asset-based businesses could have a material adverse effect on our results of operations, financial condition or cash flows. While we maintain insurance, obtain warranties from vendors and obligate contractors to meet certain performance levels, the proceeds of such insurance, warranties or performance guarantees may not be adequate to cover our lost revenues, increased expenses or liquidated damages payments should we experience equipment breakdown or non-performance by contractors or vendors.
Manufacturing - Risk 4
Operation of power generation facilities involves significant risks and hazards customary to the power industry that could have a material adverse effect on our revenues and results of operations, and we may not have adequate insurance to cover these risks and hazards. Our employees, contractors, customers and the general public may be exposed to a risk of injury due to the nature of our operations.Power generation involves hazardous activities, including acquiring, transporting and unloading fuel, operating large pieces of equipment and delivering electricity to transmission and distribution systems. In addition to natural risks such as extreme weather, earthquake, flood, lightning, hurricane and wind, other human-made hazards, such as nuclear accidents, dam failure, gas or other explosions, mine area collapses, fire, structural collapse, machinery failure, and other dangerous incidents are inherent risks in our operations. These and other hazards have and may in the future cause significant personal injury or loss of life, severe damage to and destruction of property, plant, and equipment, contamination of, or damage to, the environment and suspension of operations. Further, our employees and contractors work in, and customers and the general public may be exposed to, potentially dangerous environments at or near our operations. As a result, employees, contractors, customers, and the general public are at risk for serious injury, including loss of life.
The occurrence of any one of these events has in the past and may in the future result in us being named as a defendant in lawsuits asserting claims for substantial damages, including for environmental cleanup costs, personal injury and property damage and fines and/or penalties. We maintain an amount of insurance protection that we consider adequate, but we cannot provide any assurance that our insurance will be sufficient or effective under all circumstances and against all hazards or liabilities to which we may be subject and, even if we do have insurance coverage for a particular circumstance, we may be subject to a large deductible and maximum cap. A successful claim for which we are not fully insured could hurt our financial results and materially harm our financial condition. Further, due to rising insurance costs and changes in the insurance markets, including increasing pressure on firms that provide insurance to companies that own and operate fossil fuel generation, we cannot provide any assurance that our insurance coverage will continue to be available at all or at rates or on terms similar to those presently available. Any losses not covered by insurance could have a material adverse effect on our financial condition, results of operations or cash flows.
Manufacturing - Risk 5
Our retail operations rely on the infrastructure of local utilities or independent transmission system operators to provide electricity to, and to obtain information about, our customers. Any infrastructure failure could negatively impact customer satisfaction and could have a material adverse effect on us.The substantial majority of our retail operations depend on transmission and distribution facilities owned and operated by unaffiliated utilities to deliver the electricity that we sell to our customers. If transmission capacity is inadequate, our ability to sell and deliver electricity may be hindered and we may have to forgo sales or buy more expensive wholesale electricity than is available in the capacity-constrained area or, with respect to capacity performance in PJM and performance incentives in ISO-NE, we may be subject to significant penalties. For example, during some periods, transmission access is constrained in some areas of the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex, where we have a significant number of customers. The cost to provide service to these customers may exceed the cost to provide service to other customers, resulting in lower operating margins. In addition, any infrastructure failure that interrupts or impairs delivery of electricity to our customers could negatively impact customer satisfaction with our service. Any of the foregoing could have a material adverse effect on us.
Employment / Personnel3 | 6.5%
Employment / Personnel - Risk 1
The loss of the services of our "key" management and personnel could adversely affect our ability to successfully operate our businesses.Employment / Personnel - Risk 2
We could be materially and adversely impacted by strikes or work stoppages by our unionized employees.As of December 31, 2024, we had approximately 1,940 employees covered by collective bargaining agreements. The terms of all current collective bargaining agreements covering represented personnel engaged in lignite mining operations, lignite-, coal-, natural gas- and nuclear-fueled generation operation, as well as some battery operations, expire on various dates between February 2025 and March 2028, but remain effective thereafter unless and until terminated by either party. In the event that our union employees strike, participate in a work stoppage or slowdown or engage in other forms of labor strife or disruption, we would be responsible for procuring replacement labor or we could experience reduced power generation or outages. We have in place strike contingency plans that address the procurement of replacement labor. Strikes, work stoppages or the inability to negotiate current or future collective bargaining agreements on favorable terms or at all could have a material adverse effect on us.
Employment / Personnel - Risk 3
We have retired, announced planned retirements of, and may be forced to retire or idle additional underperforming generation units which could result in significant costs and have an adverse effect on our operating results.A sustained decrease in the financial results from, or the value of, our generation units has resulted in the retirement or planned retirement of, and ultimately could result in additional retirements or idling of, generation units. We have operated certain of our lignite- and coal-fueled generation assets only during parts of the year that have higher electricity demand and, therefore, higher related wholesale electricity prices. In connection with the closure and remediation of retired generation units, we have spent, and may in the future spend, a significant amount of money, internal resources and time to complete the required closure and reclamation, which could have a material adverse effect on our financial and operating performance.
Costs6 | 13.0%
Costs - Risk 1
Our assets or positions cannot be fully hedged against changes in commodity prices and Market Heat Rates, and hedging transactions may not work as planned, or counterparties may default on their obligations, which could have a material adverse impact on our business, financial condition, results of operations and cash flows.Costs - Risk 2
Our revenues, results of operations and operating cash flows generally are affected by price fluctuations in the wholesale power market and other market factors beyond our control.We are not guaranteed any rate of return on capital investments in our businesses. We conduct integrated power generation and retail electricity activities, focusing on power generation, wholesale electricity sales and purchases, retail sales of electricity and natural gas to end users and commodity risk management. Our wholesale and retail businesses are to some extent countercyclical in nature, particularly for the wholesale power and ancillary services supplied to the retail business. However, we do have a wholesale power position that is subject to wholesale power price moves, which may be significant. As a result, our revenues, results of operations and operating cash flows depend in large part upon wholesale market prices for electricity, natural gas, uranium, lignite, coal, fuel oil, and transportation in our regional markets and other competitive markets in which we operate and upon prevailing retail electricity rates, which may be impacted by, among other things, actions of regulatory authorities.
Market prices for power, capacity, ancillary services, natural gas, coal and fuel oil are unpredictable and may fluctuate substantially over relatively short periods of time. Unlike most other commodities, electric power can only be stored on a very limited basis and generally must be produced concurrently with its use. As a result, power prices are subject to significant volatility due to supply and demand imbalances, especially in the day-ahead and spot markets. Demand for electricity can fluctuate dramatically, creating periods of substantial under- or over-supply. Over-supply can occur as a result of the construction of new power generation sources. During periods of over-supply, electricity prices might be depressed. For example, in many instances, energy from renewable resources, such as solar, wind and battery ESS, are bid into the relevant spot market at a price of zero or close to zero during certain times of the day, lowering the clearing price for all power wholesalers in such market. Also, at times there is political pressure, or pressure from regulatory authorities with jurisdiction over wholesale and retail energy commodity and transportation rates, to impose price limitations, bidding rules and other mechanisms to address volatility and other issues in these markets.
Extreme weather events can also materially impact power prices or otherwise exacerbate conditions or circumstances that result in volatility of power prices. For example, in February 2021, the U.S. experienced Winter Storm Uri and extreme cold temperatures in the central U.S., including Texas. This severe weather event substantially increased the demand for natural gas used in our electric power generation business, and the cold further limited the availability of renewable generation across the region contributing to extremely high market prices for natural gas and electricity, which resulted in substantial increases in the costs to procure sufficient fuel supply and increased collateral posting requirements. Winter Storm Elliott, in December 2022, and Winter Storm Heather, in January 2024, were other examples of extreme weather across the U.S. that resulted in widespread wholesale power market volatility.
The majority of our facilities operate as "merchant" facilities without long-term power sales agreements. As a result, we largely sell electric energy, capacity and ancillary services into the wholesale energy spot market or into other wholesale and retail power markets on a short-term basis and are not guaranteed any rate of return on our capital investments. Consequently, there can be no assurance that we will be able to sell any or all of the electric energy, capacity or ancillary services from those facilities at commercially attractive rates or that our facilities will be able to operate profitably. We depend, in large part, upon prevailing market prices for power, capacity and fuel. Given the volatility of commodity power prices, to the extent we are unable to hedge or otherwise secure long-term power sales agreements for the output of our power generation facilities, our revenues and profitability will be subject to volatility, and our financial condition, results of operations and cash flows could be materially adversely affected.
Costs - Risk 3
We purchase natural gas, coal, fuel oil, and nuclear fuel for our generation facilities, and higher than expected fuel costs, volatility, or disruption in these fuel markets may have an adverse impact on our costs, revenues, results of operations, financial condition and cash flows.We rely on natural gas, coal, fuel oil, and nuclear fuel for the majority of our power generation facilities. Delivery of these fuels to the facilities is dependent upon the continuing availability of such fuels and financial viability of contractual counterparties as well as upon the infrastructure (including mines, rail lines, rail cars, barge facilities, roadways, riverways and natural gas pipelines) available and functioning to serve each generation facility, and geopolitical risk, including the current Russia and Ukraine conflict and the potential for additional U.S. sanctions against Russia or other potential restrictions on Russian energy deliveries. See Item 7. Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition, and Results of Operations – Significant Activities and Events, and Items Influencing Future Performance - Macroeconomic Conditions. As a result, we have experienced, and remain subject to the risks of disruptions or curtailments in the production of power at our generation facilities if no fuel is available at any price, if a counterparty fails to perform or if there is a disruption in the fuel delivery infrastructure. Certain of our generation facilities rely on a limited number of counterparties, such as natural gas suppliers and railcar companies, to provide the necessary fuel. Disputes relating to or non-performance of contractual arrangements have resulted in, and may continue to result in adverse impacts to our costs, revenues, results of operations, financial condition, and cash flows.
As part of our strategy to mitigate the potential negative effects of commodity price volatility, we have sold forward a substantial portion of our expected power sales in the next few years in order to lock in long-term prices. In order to hedge our obligations under these forward power sales contracts, we have entered into long-term and short-term contracts for the purchase and delivery of fuel. Many of the forward power sales contracts do not allow us to pass through changes in fuel costs or discharge the power sale obligations in the case of a disruption in fuel supply due to force majeure events or the default of a fuel supplier or transporter. Fuel costs (including diesel, natural gas, lignite, coal and nuclear fuel) are volatile, and the wholesale price for power does not always change at the same rate as changes in fuel costs, and disruptions in our fuel supplies may therefore require us to find alternative fuel sources at costs which may be higher than planned, to find other sources of power to deliver to counterparties at a higher cost, or to pay damages to counterparties for failure to deliver power as contracted. Long-term and short-term contracts are subject to risk of non-delivery or claims of force majeure, which may impact our ability to economically recover the value of the contract. In addition, we purchase and sell natural gas and other energy related commodities, and volatility in these markets may affect costs incurred in meeting our obligations. Further, any changes in the costs of natural gas, coal, fuel oil, nuclear fuel or transportation rates and changes in the relationship between such costs and the market prices of power will affect our financial results. If we are unable to procure fuel for physical delivery at prices we consider favorable, or if we are unable to procure these fuels at all, our financial condition, results of operations and cash flows could be materially adversely affected. For example, supply challenges were among the primary drivers of the significant loss experienced in 2021 as a result of Winter Storm Uri.
We also buy significant quantities of fuel on a short-term or spot market basis. Prices for all of our fuels fluctuate, sometimes rising or falling significantly over a relatively short period of time. The price we can obtain for the sale of energy may not rise at the same rate, or may not rise at all, to match a rise in fuel or delivery costs. This may have a material adverse effect on our financial and operating performance. Volatility in market prices for fuel and power results from, among other factors:
- demand for energy commodities and general economic conditions, including impacts of inflation and the relative strength or weakness of U.S. dollar compared to other currencies;- volatility in commodity prices and the supply of commodities, including but not limited to natural gas, coal and fuel oil;- volatility in Market Heat Rates;- volatility in coal and rail transportation prices;- volatility in nuclear fuel and related enrichment and conversion services;- transmission or transportation disruptions, constraints, congestion, inoperability or inefficiencies of electricity, natural gas or coal transmission or transportation, or other changes in power transmission infrastructure;- severe, sustained or unexpected weather conditions, including extreme cold, drought and limitations on access to water;- seasonality;- changes in electricity and fuel usage resulting from conservation efforts, changes in technology or other factors;- illiquidity in the wholesale power or other commodity markets;- importation of liquified natural gas to certain markets;- development and availability of new fuels, new technologies and new forms of competition for the production and storage of power, including competitively priced alternative energy sources or storage;- changes in market structure and liquidity;- changes in the way we operate our facilities, including curtailed operation due to market pricing, environmental regulations and legislation, safety or other factors;- changes in generation capacity or efficiency;- outages or otherwise reduced output from our generation facilities or those of our competitors;- changes in electric capacity, including the addition of new supplies of power as a result of the development of new plants, expansion of existing plants, the continued operation of uneconomic power plants due to federal, state or local subsidies, or additional transmission capacity;- local, regional, national, or global supply chain constraints or shortages;- our creditworthiness and liquidity and the willingness of fuel suppliers and transporters to do business with us;- changes in the credit risk, payment practices, or financial condition of market participants;- changes in production and storage levels of natural gas, lignite, coal, uranium, diesel and other refined products;- pandemics and epidemics (including the impacts thereto, or recovery therefrom), natural disasters, wars, sabotage, terrorist acts, embargoes and other catastrophic events; and - changes in law, including judicial decisions, federal, state and local energy, environmental and other regulation and legislation.
See "Economic downturns would likely have a material adverse effect on our businesses" for a discussion of potential risks arising from current U.S. and global economic and geopolitical conditions.
Costs - Risk 4
Our cost of compliance with existing and new environmental laws could have a material adverse effect on us.We are subject to extensive environmental regulation by governmental authorities, including federal and state environmental agencies and/or attorneys general. We may incur significant additional costs beyond those currently contemplated to comply with these regulatory requirements. If we fail to comply with these regulatory requirements, we could be subject to administrative, civil or criminal liabilities and fines. Existing environmental regulations could be revised or reinterpreted, new laws and regulations could be adopted or become applicable to us or our facilities, and future changes in environmental laws and regulations could occur, including potential regulatory and enforcement developments related to air emissions and CCR, all of which could result in significant additional costs beyond those currently contemplated to comply with existing requirements. Any of the foregoing could have a material adverse effect on us.
The Biden Administration recently finalized or proposed several regulatory actions establishing new requirements for control of certain emissions from sources, including electricity generation facilities. In the future, the EPA may also propose and finalize additional regulatory actions that may adversely affect our existing generation facilities or our ability to cost-effectively develop new generation facilities. There is no assurance that the currently installed emissions control equipment at our lignite, coal and/or natural gas-fueled generation facilities will satisfy the requirements under any future EPA or state environmental regulations. Some of the recent regulatory actions, such as the EPA's Good Neighbor Plan for the 2015 Ozone NAAQS, the final rule to regulated GHG emissions that would replace the ACE rule, and actions under the Regional Haze program, could require us to install significant additional control equipment, resulting in potentially material costs of compliance for our generation units, including capital expenditures, higher operating and fuel costs and potential production curtailments or plant retirements. These costs or operation impacts could have a material adverse effect on us. In January 2025, President Trump issued a series of executive orders, including an order titled Unleashing American Energy (the "Order") that ordered that all federal agencies are to review all existing regulations, orders and other actions for consistency with the policy goals in that Order, and develop an action plan within 30 days to resolve any policy inconsistencies. In addition, the Order stated that the U.S. Attorney General may request stays of litigation involving any identified rules or actions from the review. We expect the Trump Administration to review the recent actions of the Biden Administration, but the outcome of those actions is uncertain.
We may not be able to obtain or maintain all required environmental regulatory approvals. If there is a delay in obtaining any required environmental regulatory approvals, if we fail to obtain, maintain or comply with any such approval or if an approval is retroactively disallowed or adversely modified, the operation of our generation facilities could be stopped, disrupted, curtailed or modified or become subject to additional costs. Any such stoppage, disruption, curtailment, modification or additional costs could have a material adverse effect on us.
In addition, we may be responsible for any on-site liabilities associated with the environmental condition of facilities that we have acquired, leased, developed or sold, regardless of when the liabilities arose and whether they are now known or unknown. In connection with certain acquisitions and sales of assets, we may obtain, or be required to provide, indemnification against certain environmental liabilities. Another party could, depending on the circumstances, assert an environmental claim against us or fail to meet its indemnification obligations to us, which could have a material adverse effect on us.
Costs - Risk 5
Volatile power supply costs and demand for power have and could in the future adversely affect the financial performance of our retail businesses.Although we are the primary provider of our retail businesses' wholesale electricity supply requirements, our retail businesses purchase a portion of their supply requirements from third parties. As a result, the financial performance of our retail business depends on their ability to obtain adequate supplies of electric generation from third parties at prices below the prices they charge their customers. Consequently, our earnings and cash flows could be adversely affected in any period in which the retail businesses' wholesale electricity supply costs rise at a greater rate than the rates they charge to customers. The price of wholesale electricity supply purchases associated with the retail businesses' energy commitments can be different than that reflected in the rates charged to customers due to, among other factors:
- varying supply procurement contracts used and the timing of entering into related contracts;- subsequent changes in the overall price of natural gas;- daily, monthly or seasonal fluctuations in the price of natural gas relative to the 12-month forward prices;- transmission constraints and the Company's ability to move power to our customers;- out-of-market payments, uplifts, or other non-pass through charges, and - changes in Market Heat Rate.
The retail businesses' earnings and cash flows could also be adversely affected in any period in which their customers' actual usage of electricity significantly varies from the forecasted usage, which could occur due to, among other factors, transmission and distribution outages, demand-side management programs, competition and economic conditions, or extreme weather events, such as Winter Storm Uri in February 2021.
Costs - Risk 6
The availability and cost of emission allowances could adversely impact our costs of operations.We are required to maintain, through either allocations or purchases, sufficient emission allowances for SO2, CO2, and NOX to support our operations in the ordinary course of operating our power generation facilities. These allowances are used to meet the obligations imposed on us by various applicable environmental laws. If our operational needs require more than our allocated allowances, we may be forced to purchase such allowances on the open market, which could be costly. If we are unable to maintain sufficient emission allowances to match our operational needs, we may have to curtail our operations so as not to exceed our available emission allowances or install costly new emission controls. As we use the emission allowances that we have purchased on the open market, costs associated with such purchases will be recognized as operating expense. If such allowances are available for purchase, but only at significantly higher prices, the purchase of such allowances could materially increase our costs of operations in the affected markets.
Finance & Corporate
Total Risks: 13/46 (28%)Above Sector Average
Share Price & Shareholder Rights2 | 4.3%
Share Price & Shareholder Rights - Risk 1
Issuances or acquisitions of our common stock, or sales or dispositions of our common stock by stockholders, that result in an ownership change as defined in Internal Revenue Code (IRC) §382 could further limit our ability to use certain tax attributes and our federal net operating losses to offset our future taxable income.Share Price & Shareholder Rights - Risk 2
Holders of our preferred stock may have interests and rights that are different from our common stockholders.We are permitted under our certificate of incorporation to issue up to 100,000,000 shares of preferred stock. We can issue shares of our preferred stock in one or more series and can set the terms of the preferred stock without seeking any further approval from our common stockholders. Any preferred stock that we issue may rank ahead of our common stock in terms of dividend priority or liquidation premiums and may have greater voting rights than our common stock, which could dilute the value of our common stock to current stockholders and could adversely affect the market price of our common stock. As of December 31, 2024, 1,000,000 shares of Series A Preferred Stock, 1,000,000 shares of Series B Preferred Stock, and 476,081 shares of Series C Preferred Stock were issued and outstanding. The Preferred Stock represents a perpetual equity interest in the Company and, unlike our indebtedness, will not give rise to a claim for payment of a principal amount at a particular date; provided, the Company may redeem the Preferred Stock at the specified times (or upon certain specified events) at the applicable redemption price set forth in the certificate of designation of each of the Series A Preferred Stock, Series B Preferred Stock, and Series C Preferred Stock, respectively (Certificates of Designation). The Preferred Stock is not convertible into or exchangeable for any other securities of the Company. Upon the liquidation, dissolution or winding up of the Company, whether voluntary or involuntary, after payment or provision for payment of the debts and other liabilities of the Company, the holders of Preferred Stock will be entitled to receive, pro rata and in preference to the holders of any other capital stock, an amount per share equal to $1,000 plus accrued and unpaid dividends thereon, if any.
Unless we have received the affirmative vote or consent of the holders of at least two-thirds of the outstanding Series A Preferred Stock, the holders of at least two-thirds of the outstanding Series B Preferred Stock and the holders of at least two-thirds of the outstanding Series C Preferred Stock, each voting as a separate class, we may not adopt any amendment to our certificate of incorporation (including the applicable Certificates of Designation) that would have a material adverse effect on the powers, preferences, duties, or special rights of such series of Preferred Stock, subject to certain exceptions. In addition, unless we have received the affirmative vote or consent of the holders of at least two-thirds of the outstanding Series A Preferred Stock, the holders of at least two-thirds of the outstanding Series B Preferred Stock and the holders of at least two-thirds of the outstanding Series C Preferred Stock, voting as a class together with the holders of any parity securities upon which like voting rights have been conferred and are exercisable, we may not: (i) create or issue any senior securities, (ii) create or issue any parity securities (including any additional Preferred Stock) if the cumulative dividends payable on the outstanding Preferred Stock (or parity securities, if applicable) are in arrears; (iii) create or issue any additional Preferred Stock or any parity securities with an aggregate liquidation preference, together with the issued and outstanding Preferred Stock and any parity securities that are then outstanding, of greater than $2.5 billion, and (iv) engage in any Transaction that results in a Covered Disposition (as such terms are defined in the Certificates of Designation).
In addition, holders of the Preferred Stock are entitled to receive, when, as, and if declared by our Board, semi-annual cash dividends on the Preferred Stock, which are cumulative from the applicable initial issuance date of the Preferred Stock and payable in arrears, and unless full cumulative dividends have been or contemporaneously are being paid or declared on the Preferred Stock, we may not (i) declare or pay any dividends on any junior securities, including our common stock, or (ii) redeem or repurchase any parity securities or junior securities, subject to limited exceptions set forth in the Certificates of Designation. There is no assurance that the Board will declare, or that we will pay, any dividends on our Preferred Stock in the future. The holders of Preferred Stock (along with any parity securities then outstanding with similar rights) are entitled to elect two additional directors in the event any dividends on Preferred Stock are in arrears for three or more semi-annual dividend periods (whether or not consecutive), and such directors may have competing and different interests to those elected by our common stockholders. The dividend rate for the Series A Preferred Stock from and including the initial issuance date of October 15, 2021 until the first reset date of October 15, 2026 will be 8.0% per annum of the $1,000 liquidation preference per share of Series A Preferred Stock. The dividend rate for the Series B Preferred Stock from and including the initial issuance date of December 10, 2021 until the first reset date of December 15, 2026 will be 7.0% per annum of the $1,000 liquidation preference per share of Series B Preferred Stock. The dividend rate for the Series C Preferred Stock from and including the initial issuance date of December 29, 2023 until the first reset date of January 15, 2029 will be 8.875% per annum of the $1,000 liquidation preference per share of Series C Preferred Stock. On and after the first reset date of the Series A Preferred Stock, the dividend rate on the Series A Preferred Stock for each subsequent five-year period (each, a Reset Period) will be adjusted based upon the applicable Treasury rate, plus a spread of 6.93% per annum; provided that the applicable Treasury rate for each Reset Period will not be lower than 1.07%. On and after the first reset date of the Series B Preferred Stock, the dividend rate on the Series B Preferred Stock for each Reset Period will be adjusted based upon the applicable Treasury rate, plus a spread of 5.74% per annum; provided that the applicable Treasury rate for each Reset Period will not be lower than 1.26%. On and after the first reset date of the Series C Preferred Stock, the dividend rate on the Series C Preferred Stock for each Reset Period will be adjusted based upon the applicable Treasury rate, plus a spread of 5.045% per annum; provided that the applicable Treasury rate for each Reset Period will not be lower than 3.830%. In the event that the Company does not exercise its option to redeem all the shares of Preferred Stock within 120 days after the first date on which a Change of Control Trigger Event (as defined in the Certificate of Designation) occurs, the then-applicable dividend rate for the Preferred Stock will be increased by 5.00%.
Accounting & Financial Operations3 | 6.5%
Accounting & Financial Operations - Risk 1
We may not pay any dividends on our common stock in the future, and we may not realize the anticipated benefits of our share repurchase program.Accounting & Financial Operations - Risk 2
If our goodwill, intangible assets, or long-lived assets become impaired, we may be required to record a significant charge to earnings.Goodwill and intangible assets with indefinite useful lives, such as the intangible asset related to our retail trade names are not amortized and are subject to impairment testing annually, or when events or changes in the business environment indicate that the carrying value of the reporting unit may exceed its fair value. Additionally, we evaluate long-lived assets (including intangible assets with finite lives) for impairment whenever events or changes in circumstances indicate that their carrying amount may not be recoverable. Any reduction in or impairment of the value of goodwill, intangible assets, or other long-lived assets will result in a charge against earnings, which could materially adversely affect our reported results of operations and financial position in future periods.
If an impairment of goodwill, intangible assets with indefinite useful lives, or long-lived assets is realized, it may result in a significant charge to earnings in the respective quarterly or annual financial results prepared in accordance with GAAP.
Accounting & Financial Operations - Risk 3
We do not apply hedge accounting to our commodity derivative transactions, which may cause increased volatility in our quarterly and annual financial results.We enter derivative instruments to manage commodity price risks. All our derivatives are accounted for as economic hedges and are recorded at estimated fair value in the consolidated balance sheets with changes in fair value recorded as gains or losses in the earnings of the period in which they occur. No derivative positions are accounted for as cash flow or fair value hedges.
A derivative contract may be designated as a normal purchase or sale if the commodity is to be physically received or delivered for use or sale in the normal course of business. If designated as normal, the derivative contract is accounted for under the accrual method of accounting (not marked-to-market) with no balance sheet or income statement recognition of the contract until settlement. While certain retail sales contract portfolios are designated as normal, the majority of our derivative positions are subject to adjustments caused by changes in forward commodity prices. As a result, our quarterly and annual financial results, prepared in accordance with GAAP, are subject to increased volatility.
Debt & Financing5 | 10.9%
Debt & Financing - Risk 1
Our indebtedness could adversely affect our ability in the future to raise additional capital to fund our operations. It could also expose us to the risk of increased interest rates and limit our ability to react to changes in the economy, or our industry, as well as impact our cash available for distribution.Debt & Financing - Risk 2
The agreements and instruments governing our debt, including the Vistra Operations Credit Facilities and indentures, contain restrictions and limitations that could affect our ability to operate our business, or liquidity, and results of operations, and any failure to comply with these restrictions could have a material adverse effect on us.The agreements and instruments governing our debt, including the Vistra Operations Credit Facilities and indentures, contain restrictions that could adversely affect us by limiting our ability to operate our businesses and plan for, or react to, market conditions or to meet our capital needs and could result in an event of default under the Vistra Operations Credit Facilities, indentures and/or our other debt facilities. The Vistra Operations Credit Facilities, indentures and our other debt facilities contain events of default customary for financings of such type. If we fail to comply with the covenants in the Vistra Operations Credit Facilities, indentures and/or our other debt facilities and are unable to obtain a waiver or amendment, or a default exists and is continuing, the lenders under such agreements or notes, as the case may be, could give notice and declare outstanding borrowings thereunder immediately due and payable. The breach of any covenants or obligations in certain agreements and instruments governing our debt, including the Vistra Operations Credit Facilities and indentures, not otherwise waived or amended, could result in a default under the applicable debt obligations and could trigger acceleration of those obligations, which in turn could trigger cross defaults under other agreements governing our debt, and any such acceleration of outstanding borrowings could have a material adverse effect on us.
Debt & Financing - Risk 3
Certain obligations are required to be secured by letters of credit, surety bonds, first liens, or cash, which increase our costs. If we are unable to provide such security, it may restrict our ability to conduct our business, which could have a material adverse effect on us.We undertake certain hedging and commodity activities and enter certain financing arrangements with various counterparties that require cash collateral or the posting of letters of credit which are at risk of being drawn down in the event we default on our obligations. We currently use margin deposits, prepayments, surety bonds, letters of credit and first liens as credit support for commodity procurement and risk management activities. Future cash collateral requirements may increase based on the extent of our involvement in standard contracts and movements in commodity prices, the use of first lien collateral, and also based on our credit ratings and the general perception of creditworthiness in the markets in which we operate. In the case of commodity arrangements, the amount of such credit support that must be provided is typically based on the difference between the price of the commodity in a given contract and the market price of the commodity. Significant movements in market prices can result in our being required to provide cash collateral and letters of credit in very large amounts. The effectiveness of our strategy may be dependent on the amount of collateral available to enter into or maintain these contracts, and liquidity requirements may be greater than we anticipate or will be able to meet. Without enough working capital or other sources of available liquidity to post as collateral, we may not be able to manage price volatility effectively or to implement our strategy. A material increase in the amount of letters of credit or cash collateral required to be provided to our counterparties may have a material adverse effect on us.
Debt & Financing - Risk 4
Our liquidity needs could be difficult to satisfy, particularly during times of uncertainty in the financial markets or during times of significant fluctuation in commodity prices, and we may be unable to access capital on favorable terms or at all in the future, which could have a material adverse effect on us. Vistra currently maintains non-investment grade credit ratings that could negatively affect our ability to access capital on favorable terms or result in higher collateral requirements, particularly if our credit ratings were to be downgraded in the future.Changed
Our businesses are capital intensive. In general, we rely on access to financial markets and credit facilities as a significant source of liquidity for our capital requirements, hedging transactions and other obligations not satisfied by cash-on-hand or operating cash flows. The inability to raise capital or to access credit facilities, particularly on favorable terms, could adversely impact our liquidity and our ability to meet our obligations or sustain and grow our businesses and could increase capital costs and collateral requirements, any of which could have a material adverse effect on us.
Our access to capital and the cost and other terms of acquiring capital are dependent upon, and could be adversely impacted by, various factors, including:
- general economic and capital markets conditions, including changes in financial markets that reduce available liquidity or the ability to obtain or renew credit facilities on favorable terms or at all;- conditions and economic weakness in the U.S. power markets;- regulatory developments;- changes in interest rates;- a deterioration, or perceived deterioration, of our creditworthiness, enterprise value or financial or operating results;- a downgrade of Vistra's or its applicable subsidiaries' credit ratings, or credit ratings of its issuances;- our level of indebtedness and compliance with covenants in our debt agreements;- our ability to meet our sustainability targets in our secured credit facilities;- a deterioration of the creditworthiness or bankruptcy of one or more lenders or counterparties under our credit facilities that affects the ability of such lender(s) to make loans to us;- credit, security, or collateral requirements, including those relating to volatility in commodity prices;- general credit availability from banks or other lenders for us and our industry peers;- investor and lender confidence in and sentiment of the industry, our business, and the wholesale electricity markets in which we operate;- a material breakdown in or oversight in effectuating our risk management procedures;- the occurrence of changes in our businesses;- disruptions, constraints, or inefficiencies in the continued reliable operation of our generation facilities and battery ESS; and - changes in or the operation of provisions of tax and regulatory laws.
There are also increasing financial risks for companies that own and operate fossil fuel generation as institutional lenders or other sources of capital have become more attentive to sustainable financing practices and some of them may seek commitments on emission reduction targets or expected use or proceeds when providing funding to, or decline to provide funding for companies who produce or utilize fossil fuel energy or that have higher levels of GHG emissions. Our Vistra Operations Credit Agreement contains Sustainability Adjustments. These adjustments use baseline values from KPI Metrics and provide for decreases in the applicable credit spread adjustments and commitment fee rates if our reported metrics are a certain percentage below the baseline values, adjusted on a year-to-year basis. Conversely, if our reported metrics are a certain percentage above the baseline values, adjusted on a year-to-year basis, the applicable credit spread adjustments and fee rates are increased. Building in these adjustments to our credit agreement helps to show lenders we are committed to lowering our GHG emissions, but failing to meet the targets on a regular basis could be viewed negatively by such lenders. Additionally, the lending practices of institutional lenders have been the subject of intensive lobbying efforts in recent years, oftentimes public in nature, by environmental activists and others concerned about climate change not to provide funding for companies in the broader energy sector. Limitations on our access to, or increases in our cost of, capital could have a material adverse effect on us.
In addition, Vistra currently maintains non-investment grade credit ratings. As a result, we may not be able to access capital on terms (financial or otherwise) as favorable as companies that maintain investment-grade credit ratings or we may be unable to access capital at all at times when the credit markets tighten. In addition, due to our non-investment grade credit ratings, counterparties request collateral support (including cash or letters of credit) in order to enter into certain transactions with us.
A downgrade in long-term debt ratings generally causes borrowing costs to increase and the potential pool of investors to shrink and could trigger liquidity demands pursuant to contractual arrangements. Future transactions by Vistra or any of its subsidiaries, including the issuance of additional debt, could result in a temporary or permanent downgrade in our credit ratings.
Debt & Financing - Risk 5
Vistra is a holding company and its ability to obtain funds from its subsidiaries is structurally subordinated to existing and future liabilities of its subsidiaries.Vistra is a holding company that does not conduct any business operations of its own. As a result, Vistra's cash flows and ability to meet its obligations are largely dependent upon the operating cash flows of Vistra's subsidiaries and the payment of such operating cash flows to Vistra in the form of dividends, distributions, loans or otherwise. These subsidiaries are separate and distinct legal entities from Vistra and have no obligation (other than any existing contractual obligations) to provide Vistra with funds to satisfy its obligations. Any decision by a subsidiary to provide Vistra with funds to satisfy its obligations, whether by dividends, distributions, loans or otherwise, will depend on, among other things, such subsidiary's results of operations, financial condition, cash flows, cash requirements, contractual prohibitions and other restrictions, applicable law and other factors. The deterioration of income from, or other available assets of, any such subsidiary for any reason could limit or impair its ability to pay dividends or make other distributions to Vistra.
Corporate Activity and Growth3 | 6.5%
Corporate Activity and Growth - Risk 1
We may not be able to complete future acquisitions on favorable terms or at all, successfully integrate future acquisitions into our business, or effectively identify and invest in value-creating businesses, assets or projects, which could result in unanticipated expenses and losses or otherwise hinder or delay our growth strategy.Corporate Activity and Growth - Risk 2
Our ability to achieve the expected growth of our Vistra Zero portfolio, consisting of our solar generation, battery ESS, and other renewables development projects, is subject to substantial capital requirements and other significant uncertainties.We have a substantial capital allocation plan intended for investments in renewable assets, including solar development projects and battery ESS. As part of our business strategy, we plan to continually assess potential strategic acquisitions or investments in renewable assets, emerging technologies and related projects. Notably, the Company's ability to successfully develop our current renewables projects, or in the future acquire additional renewable assets, may be impacted by the demand for and viability of renewable assets generally, which may vary depending on availability of projects and financing, as well as public policy, financial and tax mechanisms implemented at the state and federal levels to support the development of renewable assets. Various factors could result in increased costs or result in delays or cancellation of our current or future renewable projects, or the loss of, or declines in the value of, our investments in projects including, but not limited to, risks relating to siting, financing, engineering and construction, permitting, interconnection requests, federal and state regulatory approvals, new legislation or regulatory changes impacting the industry, commissioning delays, import tariffs, changes to federal income tax laws, economic events or factors, environmental and community concerns, availability of or requirements for additional funding, enhanced competition, or the potential for termination of the power sales contract as a result of a failure to meet certain milestones. Further, the recent proliferation of renewable projects has resulted in a large volume of interconnection requests submitted to grid operators, including the markets in which we operate, resulting in significant delays to the approval process and estimated completion dates for our projects and others. FERC and regional ISOs are working to address these backlogs, including with regulatory rule changes, changing the interconnection process, the impacts of which are currently unknown because the changes have only been partially implemented. Additionally, the increased demand for construction of renewables projects, such as battery ESS and solar projects, and other labor market and supply chain constraints have resulted, and may continue to result, in limited availability of qualified specialists, contractors, and necessary services or materials, leading to delays in and higher costs for the development and construction of our current and future planned projects. Should any of these factors occur, our financial position, results of operations, and cash flows could be adversely affected, or our future growth opportunities may not be realized as anticipated.
While certain of our subsidiaries are in various stages of developing and constructing solar generation facilities and battery ESS and certain of these projects have signed long-term contracts or made similar arrangements for the sale of electricity, in other cases, our subsidiaries may enter into obligations in the development process even though the subsidiaries have not yet secured power purchase arrangements or other important elements for a successful project. If the project does not proceed as planned, our subsidiaries may remain obligated for certain liabilities even though the project will not be completed. Development is inherently uncertain and we may forgo certain development opportunities and we may undertake significant development costs before determining that we will not proceed with a particular project. We believe that capitalized costs for projects under development are recoverable; however, there can be no assurance that any individual project will be completed and reach commercial operation. If these development efforts are not successful, we may abandon a project under development and write off the costs incurred in connection with such project and could incur additional losses associated with any related contingent liabilities.
Corporate Activity and Growth - Risk 3
Circumstances associated with potential divestitures could adversely affect our results of operations and financial condition.In evaluating our business and the strategic fit of our various assets, we may determine to sell one or more of such assets. Despite a decision to divest an asset, we may encounter difficulty in finding a buyer willing to purchase the asset at an acceptable price and on acceptable terms and in a timely manner. In addition, a prospective buyer may have difficulty obtaining financing. Divestitures could involve additional risks, including:
- difficulties in the separation of operations and personnel;- the need to provide significant ongoing post-closing transition support to a buyer;- management's attention may be temporarily diverted;- the retention of certain current or future liabilities in order to induce a buyer to complete a divestiture;- the obligation to indemnify or reimburse a buyer for certain past liabilities of a divested asset;- the disruption of our business; and - potential loss of key employees.
We may not be successful in managing these or any other significant risks that we may encounter in divesting any asset, which could adversely affect our results of operations and financial condition.
Legal & Regulatory
Total Risks: 8/46 (17%)Below Sector Average
Regulation5 | 10.9%
Regulation - Risk 1
Our businesses are subject to ongoing complex governmental regulations and legislation that have adversely impacted, and may in the future adversely impact, our businesses, results of operations, liquidity, financial condition, and cash flows.Regulation - Risk 2
We are required to obtain, and to comply with, government permits and approvals.We are required to obtain, and to comply with, numerous permits and licenses from federal, state and local governmental agencies. The process of obtaining and renewing necessary permits and licenses can be lengthy and complex and can sometimes result in the establishment of conditions that make the project or activity for which the permit or license was sought unprofitable or otherwise unattractive. In addition, such permits or licenses may be subject to denial, revocation or modification under various circumstances. Failure to obtain or comply with the conditions of permits or licenses, or failure to comply with applicable laws or regulations, may result in the delay or temporary suspension of our operations and electricity sales or the curtailment of our delivery of electricity to our customers and may subject us to penalties and other sanctions. Although various regulators routinely renew existing permits and licenses, renewal of our existing permits or licenses could be denied or jeopardized by various factors, including (a) failure to provide adequate financial assurance for closure, (b) failure to comply with environmental, health and safety laws and regulations or permit conditions, (c) local community, political or other opposition and (d) executive, legislative or regulatory action.
Our inability to procure and comply with the permits and licenses required for our operations, or the cost to us of such procurement or compliance, could have a material adverse effect on us. In addition, new environmental legislation or regulations, if enacted, or changed interpretations of existing laws, may cause activities at our facilities to need to be changed to avoid violating applicable laws and regulations or elicit claims that historical activities at our facilities violated applicable laws and regulations. In addition to the possible imposition of fines in the case of any such violations, we may be required to undertake significant capital investments and obtain additional operating permits or licenses, which could have a material adverse effect on us.
Regulation - Risk 3
Luminant's mining operations are subject to RCT oversight.We currently own and operate, or are in the process of reclaiming, various surface lignite coal mines in Texas to provide fuel for our electricity generation facilities. We also own or lease, and are in the process of reclaiming, multiple waste-to-energy surface facilities in Pennsylvania. The RCT, which exercises broad authority to regulate reclamation activity, reviews on an ongoing basis whether Luminant is compliant with RCT rules and regulations and whether it has met all the requirements of its mining permits in Texas. Any new rules and regulations adopted by the RCT or the Department of Interior Office of Surface Mining, which also regulates mining activity nationwide, or any changes in the interpretation of existing rules and regulations, could result in higher compliance costs or otherwise adversely affect our financial condition or cause a revocation of a mining permit. Any revocation of a mining permit would mean that Luminant would no longer be allowed to mine lignite at the applicable mine to serve its generation facilities.
Regulation - Risk 4
Our retail businesses, which each have REP certifications that are subject to review of the public utility commissions in the states in which we operate, are subject to changing state rules and regulations that could have a material impact on the profitability of our business.The competitiveness of our U.S. retail businesses partially depends on state regulatory policies that establish the structure, rules, terms and conditions on which services are offered to retail customers. Specifically, the public utility commissions and/or the attorney generals of the various jurisdictions in which the Retail segment operates may at any time initiate an investigation into whether our retail operations comply with certain commission rules or state laws and whether we have met the requirements for REP certification, including financial requirements. These state policies and investigations, which can include controls on the retail rates our retail businesses can charge, the imposition of additional costs on sales, restrictions on our ability to obtain new customers through various marketing channels and disclosure requirements, investigations into whether our retail operations comply with certain commission rules or state laws and whether we have met the requirements for REP certification, including financial requirements, can affect the competitiveness of our retail businesses. Any removal or revocation of a REP certification would mean that we would no longer be allowed to provide electricity service to retail customers in the applicable jurisdiction, and such decertification could have a material adverse effect on us. Additionally, state or federal imposition of net metering or renewable portfolio standard programs can make it more or less expensive for retail customers to supplement or replace their reliance on grid power. Our retail businesses may have limited ability to influence development of these state rules, regulations and policies, and our business model may be more or less effective, depending on changes to the regulatory environment.
Regulation - Risk 5
We have been and may in the future be materially and adversely affected by obligations to comply with federal and state regulations, laws, and other legal requirements that govern the operations, assessments, storage, closure, corrective action, disposal and monitoring relating to CCR.As a result of electricity produced for decades at coal-fueled power plants in Illinois, Texas and Ohio, we manage large amounts of CCR material in surface impoundments. In addition to the federal requirements under the CCR rule, CCR surface impoundments will continue to be regulated by existing state laws, regulations and permits, as well as additional legal requirements that may be imposed in the future. These federal and state laws, regulations and other legal requirements may require or result in additional expenditures, increased operating and maintenance costs and/or result in closure of certain power generation facilities, which could affect the results of operations, financial position and cash flows of the Company. We have recognized ARO liabilities related to these CCR-related requirements based on costs of closure methods that our operations and environmental services teams determined were appropriate based on the existing closure requirements at the time we recorded those ARO liabilities, and is reasonably possible for those to increase once the IEPA determines final closure requirements for our Illinois sites. As the closure and CCR management work progresses and final closure plans and corrective action measures are developed and approved at each site, the scope and complexity of work and the amount of CCR material could be greater than current estimates and could, therefore, materially impact earnings through increased compliance expenditures.
The EPA was directed by the Biden Administration to review a number of environmental rules adopted by the EPA during the first Trump Administration, including the CCR rule, the ELG rule, the ACE rule and the particulate matter (PM), and NAAQS rules. All of these rules may significantly and adversely impact our existing coal fleet and may lead to accelerated plant closure timeframes. In addition, the new GHG rule and the PM2.5 NAAQS rule finalized in 2024 along with other NAAQS that may be issued in the future have the potential to adversely impact our natural gas-fired units. In January 2025, President Trump issued an executive Order, which among other things, requires the EPA to review many of the rules issued by the Biden Administration and further instructed that the U.S. Attorney General may request a stay of the litigation while the EPA conducts its review.
The EPA is reviewing applications submitted by us to extend closure deadlines for many of our CCR impoundments. The scope and cost of that closure work could increase significantly based on new or potential requirements imposed by the EPA or state agencies, including the EPA's interpretations on requirements for closure of CCR units. There is no assurance that our current assumptions for closure activities will be accepted by the EPA or state agencies. If ponds must be closed sooner than anticipated, plant closures timeframes may be accelerated.
Litigation & Legal Liabilities1 | 2.2%
Litigation & Legal Liabilities - Risk 1
Litigation, legal proceedings, regulatory investigations or other administrative proceedings could expose us to significant liabilities and reputational damage that could have a material adverse effect on us.Taxation & Government Incentives1 | 2.2%
Taxation & Government Incentives - Risk 1
Tax legislation initiatives or challenges to our tax positions, or potential future legislation or the imposition of new or increased taxes or fees, could have a material adverse effect on our financial condition, results of operations and cash flows.Environmental / Social1 | 2.2%
Environmental / Social - Risk 1
We could be materially and adversely affected if new federal or state legislation or regulations are adopted to address global climate change that could require efforts that exceed or are more expensive than our currently planned initiatives or if we are subject to lawsuits for alleged damage to persons or property resulting from greenhouse gas emissions.Ability to Sell
Total Risks: 4/46 (9%)Above Sector Average
Competition2 | 4.3%
Competition - Risk 1
Our retail operations are subject to significant competition from other REPs, which could result in a loss of existing customers and the inability to attract new customers.Competition - Risk 2
Competition, changes in market structure, and/or state or federal interference in the wholesale and retail power markets, together with subsidized generation, may have a material adverse effect on our financial condition, results of operations and cash flows.Our generation and competitive retail businesses rely on a competitive wholesale marketplace. The competitive wholesale marketplace may be undermined by changes in market structure and out-of-market subsidies provided by federal or state entities, including bailouts of uneconomic plants, imports of power from Canada, renewable mandates or subsidies, as well as out-of-market payments to new generators. Multiple potential changes have been and are being evaluated by the PUCT and the Texas Legislature for the ERCOT market, including Dispatchable Reliability Reserve Service that would facilitate compliance with a required reliability standard, the ultimate resolution of which is unknown. In another example, the resolution of a number of filings pending at FERC could impact PJM capacity market rules in future years.
Our power generation business competes with other non-utility generators, regulated utilities, unregulated subsidiaries of regulated utilities, other energy service companies and financial institutions in the sale of electric energy, capacity and ancillary services, as well as in the procurement of fuel, transmission and transportation services. Moreover, aggregate demand for power may be met by generation capacity based on several competing technologies, as well as power generation facilities fueled by alternative or renewable energy sources, including hydroelectric power, synthetic fuels, solar, wind, wood, geothermal, waste heat and solid waste sources. Regulatory initiatives designed to enhance and/or subsidize renewable generation increases competition from these types of facilities and out-of-market subsidies to existing or new generation can undermine the competitive wholesale marketplace, which can lead to premature retirement of existing facilities, including those owned by us.
We also compete against other energy merchants on the basis of our relative operating skills, financial position and access to credit sources. Electric energy customers, wholesale energy suppliers and transporters often seek financial guarantees, credit support such as letters of credit and other assurances that their energy contracts will be satisfied. Companies with which we compete may have greater resources or experience in these areas. Over time, some of our plants may become unable to compete because of subsidized generation, including public utility commission supported power purchase agreements, and the construction of new plants. Such new plants could have a number of advantages including more efficient equipment and newer technology that could result in fewer emissions or more advantageous locations on the electric transmission system. Additionally, these competitors may be able to respond more quickly to new laws and regulations because of the newer technology utilized in their facilities or the additional resources derived from owning more efficient facilities.
Other factors may contribute to increased competition in wholesale power markets. We expect that we will continue to face intense competition from numerous companies, including new entrants or consolidation of existing competitors, in the industry. Certain federal and state entities in jurisdictions in which we operate have either enacted or are considering regulations or legislation to subsidize otherwise uneconomic plants and attempt to incentivize, including through certain tax benefits, the construction and development of additional renewable resources as well as increases in energy efficiency investments. For example, the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 contains a number of tax credits and incentives relating to renewable projects and clean energy technologies such as nuclear energy. New entrants or existing competitors may find it more economical to develop new renewable projects or invest in clean energy technologies in which we would like to invest. Subsidies (or increases thereto) to our competitors could result in increased competition for us, which could have a material adverse effect on our financial condition, results of operations and cash flows.
In addition, our retail marketing efforts compete for customers in a competitive environment, which impacts the margins that we can earn on the volumes we are able to serve. Further, with retail competition, it is easier for residential customers where we serve load to switch competitive electricity generation suppliers for their energy needs. The volatility and uncertainty that results from such mobility may have material adverse effects on our financial condition, results of operations and cash flows. For example, if fewer customers switch to another supplier than anticipated, the load we must serve will be greater than anticipated, and if market prices of fuel have increased, our costs will increase more than expected due to the need to go to the market to cover the incremental supply obligation. If more customers switch to another supplier than anticipated, the load we must serve will be lower than anticipated and, if market prices of electricity have decreased, our operating results could suffer.
Demand2 | 4.3%
Demand - Risk 1
Our results of operations and financial condition could be materially and adversely affected by energy market participants continuing to construct new generation facilities or expanding or enhancing existing generation facilities despite relatively low power prices and such additional generation capacity results in a reduction in wholesale power prices.Demand - Risk 2
If electricity demand does not grow at the rate expected, or if we are unable to execute on large load offtake opportunities, our financial performance, growth opportunities, and stock price could be adversely impacted.Added
Multiple demand drivers such as emergence of large load data centers, including in response to transformations in technologies like artificial intelligence (AI) and electrification of oil field operations (specifically in the Permian Basin of west Texas), have accelerated, and are expected to continue to accelerate, load growth in the geographic regions we serve. We continue to pursue opportunities for the potential sale of power from our existing or new nuclear and gas facilities pursuant to long-term agreements to supply large load facilities. Such potential transactions are subject to certain risks and uncertainties, including various currently contemplated or future potential regulatory actions, reviews, and/or approvals and legislative actions, which could impact the timing of, and our ability to consummate, a potential transaction. In addition, if demand does not continue to increase at a rate in line with market expectations due to various factors, such as changes in technology, more energy efficient AI solutions or slow adoption of AI products and services, economic downturns, or adverse government actions, or if we are unable to execute on such large load offtake opportunities, our opportunities for growth and stock price may be adversely impacted.
Macro & Political
Total Risks: 4/46 (9%)Below Sector Average
Economy & Political Environment1 | 2.2%
Economy & Political Environment - Risk 1
Economic downturns would likely have a material adverse effect on our businesses.Natural and Human Disruptions3 | 6.5%
Natural and Human Disruptions - Risk 1
We have been and may in the future be materially and adversely affected by the effects of extreme weather conditions and seasonality.Natural and Human Disruptions - Risk 2
Events outside of our control, including an epidemic or outbreak of an infectious disease may materially adversely affect our business.We face risks related to epidemics, outbreaks or other public health events that are outside of our control, and could significantly disrupt our operations and adversely affect our financial condition. The global or national outbreak of an illness or other communicable disease, or any other public health crisis may cause disruptions to our business and operational plans, as a result of a number of factors, including (a) a protracted slowdown of broad sectors of the economy, (b) changes in demand or supply for commodities, (c) significant changes in legislation or regulatory policy to address the pandemic (including prohibitions on certain marketing channels, moratoriums or conditions on disconnections or limits or restrictions on late fees), (d) reduced demand for electricity (particularly from commercial and industrial customers), (e) increased late or uncollectible customer payments, (f) negative impacts on the health of our workforce, (g) a deterioration of our ability to ensure business continuity (including increased vulnerability to cyber and other information technology risks), and (h) the inability of the Company's contractors, suppliers, and other business partners to fulfill their contractual obligations.
Natural and Human Disruptions - Risk 3
Evolving expectations from stakeholders, including investors, on ESG issues, including climate change and sustainability matters, and erosion of stakeholder trust or confidence could influence actions or decisions about our company and our industry and could adversely affect our business, operations, financial results or stock price.Companies across all industries are facing evolving expectations or increasing scrutiny from stakeholders related to their approach to ESG matters. For Vistra, reliability, affordability, safety, climate change, and stakeholder relations remain primary focus areas, and changing expectations of our practices and performance across these and other ESG areas may impose additional costs or create exposure to new or additional risks. Our operations, projects and growth opportunities require us to have strong relationships with key stakeholders, including local communities and other groups directly impacted by our activities, as well as governments and government agencies, investor advocacy groups, certain institutional investors, investment funds and others which are increasingly focused on sustainability practices. Certain financial institutions have announced policies to presently or in the future cease investing or to divest investments in companies that derive any or a specified portion of their income from, or have any or a specified portion of their operations in, coal and/or other fossil fuels.
We are strategically focused on meeting growing demand for electricity as we ensure reliability and affordability while being mindful of growing stakeholder interest in our plans to transition to low-to-no carbon power generation sources. As we work through this transition, our prioritization of reliability and affordability may prevent us from achieving our targets as expected, which could impact stakeholder trust and confidence. Any such erosion of stakeholder trust and confidence, evolving expectations from stakeholders on such ESG issues, and such parties' resulting actions or decisions about our company and our industry could have negative impacts on our business, operations, financial results, and stock price, including:
- negative stakeholder sentiment toward us and our industry, including concerns over environmental or sustainability matters and potential changes in federal and state regulatory actions related thereto;- loss of business or loss of market share, including to competitors who do not have any, or comparable amounts, of operations involving fossil fuels;- loss of ability to hire and retain top talent;- loss of ability to secure growth opportunities;- the inability to, or increased difficulties and costs of, obtaining services, materials, or insurance from third parties;- reductions in our credit ratings or increased costs of, or limited access to, capital;- delays in project execution;- legal action;- increased regulatory oversight;- impediments on our ability to acquire or renew rights-of-way or land rights on a timely basis and on acceptable terms;- changing investor sentiment regarding investment in the power and utilities industry or our company; and - restricted access to and cost of capital.
Tech & Innovation
Total Risks: 3/46 (7%)Below Sector Average
Cyber Security1 | 2.2%
Cyber Security - Risk 1
Cybersecurity attacks or technology systems failures could disrupt business operations and expose us to significant liabilities, reputational damage, loss of customers, and regulatory action.Technology2 | 4.3%
Technology - Risk 1
Changes in technology, increased electricity conservation efforts, or energy sustainability efforts may reduce the value of our business, introduce new or emerging risks, and may otherwise have a material adverse effect on us.Technology - Risk 2
We may potentially be affected by emerging technologies that may over time affect change in capacity markets and the energy industry overall including distributed generation and clean technology.Some of these emerging technologies are distributed renewable energy technologies, energy efficiency, broad consumer adoption of electric vehicles, distributed generation, energy storage devices, fuel cells, nuclear small modular reactors, and linear generators. Additionally, large-scale cryptocurrency mining, AI data centers, and increased industrial electrification are becoming increasingly prevalent in certain markets, including ERCOT, and many of these facilities are "behind-the-meter." Such emerging technologies could affect the price of energy, levels of customer-owned generation, customer expectations and current business models and make portions of our electric system power supply and transmission and/or distribution facilities obsolete prior to the end of their useful lives. These emerging technologies may also affect the financial viability of utility counterparties and could have significant impacts on wholesale market prices, which could ultimately have a material adverse effect on our financial condition, results of operations and cash flows could be materially adversely affected.
See a full breakdown of risk according to category and subcategory. The list starts with the category with the most risk. Click on subcategories to read relevant extracts from the most recent report.
FAQ
What are “Risk Factors”?
Risk factors are any situations or occurrences that could make investing in a company risky.
The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) requires that publicly traded companies disclose their most significant risk factors. This is so that potential investors can consider any risks before they make an investment.
They also offer companies protection, as a company can use risk factors as liability protection. This could happen if a company underperforms and investors take legal action as a result.
It is worth noting that smaller companies, that is those with a public float of under $75 million on the last business day, do not have to include risk factors in their 10-K and 10-Q forms, although some may choose to do so.
How do companies disclose their risk factors?
Publicly traded companies initially disclose their risk factors to the SEC through their S-1 filings as part of the IPO process.
Additionally, companies must provide a complete list of risk factors in their Annual Reports (Form 10-K) or (Form 20-F) for “foreign private issuers”.
Quarterly Reports also include a section on risk factors (Form 10-Q) where companies are only required to update any changes since the previous report.
According to the SEC, risk factors should be reported concisely, logically and in “plain English” so investors can understand them.
How can I use TipRanks risk factors in my stock research?
Use the Risk Factors tab to get data about the risk factors of any company in which you are considering investing.
You can easily see the most significant risks a company is facing. Additionally, you can find out which risk factors a company has added, removed or adjusted since its previous disclosure. You can also see how a company’s risk factors compare to others in its sector.
Without reading company reports or participating in conference calls, you would most likely not have access to this sort of information, which is usually not included in press releases or other public announcements.
A simplified analysis of risk factors is unique to TipRanks.
What are all the risk factor categories?
TipRanks has identified 6 major categories of risk factors and a number of subcategories for each. You can see how these categories are broken down in the list below.
1. Financial & Corporate
- Accounting & Financial Operations - risks related to accounting loss, value of intangible assets, financial statements, value of intangible assets, financial reporting, estimates, guidance, company profitability, dividends, fluctuating results.
- Share Price & Shareholder Rights – risks related to things that impact share prices and the rights of shareholders, including analyst ratings, major shareholder activity, trade volatility, liquidity of shares, anti-takeover provisions, international listing, dual listing.
- Debt & Financing – risks related to debt, funding, financing and interest rates, financial investments.
- Corporate Activity and Growth – risks related to restructuring, M&As, joint ventures, execution of corporate strategy, strategic alliances.
2. Legal & Regulatory
- Litigation and Legal Liabilities – risks related to litigation/ lawsuits against the company.
- Regulation – risks related to compliance, GDPR, and new legislation.
- Environmental / Social – risks related to environmental regulation and to data privacy.
- Taxation & Government Incentives – risks related to taxation and changes in government incentives.
3. Production
- Costs – risks related to costs of production including commodity prices, future contracts, inventory.
- Supply Chain – risks related to the company’s suppliers.
- Manufacturing – risks related to the company’s manufacturing process including product quality and product recalls.
- Human Capital – risks related to recruitment, training and retention of key employees, employee relationships & unions labor disputes, pension, and post retirement benefits, medical, health and welfare benefits, employee misconduct, employee litigation.
4. Technology & Innovation
- Innovation / R&D – risks related to innovation and new product development.
- Technology – risks related to the company’s reliance on technology.
- Cyber Security – risks related to securing the company’s digital assets and from cyber attacks.
- Trade Secrets & Patents – risks related to the company’s ability to protect its intellectual property and to infringement claims against the company as well as piracy and unlicensed copying.
5. Ability to Sell
- Demand – risks related to the demand of the company’s goods and services including seasonality, reliance on key customers.
- Competition – risks related to the company’s competition including substitutes.
- Sales & Marketing – risks related to sales, marketing, and distribution channels, pricing, and market penetration.
- Brand & Reputation – risks related to the company’s brand and reputation.
6. Macro & Political
- Economy & Political Environment – risks related to changes in economic and political conditions.
- Natural and Human Disruptions – risks related to catastrophes, floods, storms, terror, earthquakes, coronavirus pandemic/COVID-19.
- International Operations – risks related to the global nature of the company.
- Capital Markets – risks related to exchange rates and trade, cryptocurrency.