Vipshop (VIPS) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $6.35B
• Dividend Yield: 3.31%
• Average Volume (3M): 3.98M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 6.2
• Beta (1Y): 0.76
• Revenue Growth: -5.47%
• EPS Growth: -2.19%
• Country: US
• Employees: 14,638
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Specialty Retail
• EPS (TTM): 1.99
• Shares Outstanding: 435,525,900
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 5,825,993
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,982,390
• PEG Ratio: 0.46
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.57
• Price to Cash Flow (P/CF): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $18.77
• Price Target Upside: 50.64% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3

Vipshop holds a strong overall stock score driven by solid financial performance and undervaluation, despite facing revenue and margin challenges. The company's robust balance sheet and growth in key areas like apparel and membership provide a solid foundation, though recent operational cash flow issues and a cautious earnings outlook warrant attention.

Positive Factors

Capital Return Strategy

Management has communicated that they will return no less than 75% of FY2024 non-GAAP net income to shareholders in FY2025, translating to ~12% of its current market cap.

Membership Growth

SVIP members reached 7.5 million in 3Q24, up from 7.4 million in 2Q24, contributing positively.

Promotions and Sales Performance

Singles Day promotion was longer with 28 days vs 20 days last year, and GMV growth was solid at 20% yoy.

Negative Factors

Analyst Ratings

Analysts have downgraded the stock from Buy to Neutral due to less than 15% expected total return and lack of near-term catalyst.

Consumer Demand Challenges

VIPS noted despite decent Singles Day performance, it remains cautious as consumer demand remains challenging and winter is likely to be warmer than last year.

Revenue Guidance

Management guided revenues to be flat to a 5% decline year-over-year for the first quarter of 2025.

Vipshop Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Vipshop Holdings Limited operates online platforms for various brands in the People's Republic of China. It operates in Vip.com, Shan Shan Outlets, and Others segments. The company offers women's apparel, such as casual wear, jeans, dresses, outerwear, lingerie, pajamas, and maternity clothes; men's apparel comprising casual and smart-casual T-shirts, polo shirts, jackets, pants, and underwear; and skin care and cosmetic products, including cleansers, lotions, face and body creams, face masks, sunscreen, foundations, lipsticks, eye shadows, and other cosmetics-related items. It also provides shoes and bags, which comprises casual and formal shoes, purses, satchels, luggage, duffel bags, and wallets; handbags; apparel, gears and accessories, furnishings and decor, toys, and games for boys, girls, infants, and toddlers; sportswear, sports gear, and footwear for various sporting activities; home furnishings, such as bed and bath products, home decor, kitchen and tabletop items, and home appliances; and consumer electronic products. In addition, the company offers food and snacks, beverages, fresh produce, and pet goods; beauty products; and internet finance services, including consumer and supplier financing, and microcredit. Vipshop Holdings Limited provides its branded products through its vip.com and vipshop.com online platforms, as well as through its internet website and cellular phone application. Further, it offers warehousing, logistics, product procurement, research and development, technology development, and consulting services; software development and information technology support solutions; and supply chain services. Vipshop Holdings Limited was founded in 2008 and is headquartered in Guangzhou, the People's Republic of China.

How the Company Makes Money

Vipshop makes money primarily through the sale of discounted branded products on its e-commerce platform. The company operates a flash sales model, where it purchases excess inventory from brands at a discount and resells these products at competitive prices to its customers. This model allows Vipshop to offer significant discounts, attracting a large customer base. Revenue is generated from the markup on these discounted products. Additionally, Vipshop benefits from strategic partnerships with various international and domestic brands, enhancing its product offerings and expanding its customer reach. The company's logistics and supply chain efficiency also contribute to its profitability by minimizing overhead costs and ensuring timely delivery of products.

Vipshop Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Vipshop demonstrates solid financial health with strong profitability and a robust balance sheet, indicative of prudent financial management. While past cash flows have been strong, recent operational cash flow issues need monitoring. Overall, the company is well-positioned for continued growth in the retail sector.

Income Statement

The company exhibits strong profitability with a high gross profit margin and consistent net profit margins over the years. Revenue has shown fluctuations but remains robust, indicating resilience in a competitive retail sector. EBIT and EBITDA margins are healthy, reflecting efficient operational management.

Balance Sheet

Vipshop maintains a solid balance sheet with a low debt-to-equity ratio and strong equity ratio, showcasing financial stability and low leverage. The return on equity is impressive, reflecting efficient use of equity capital. The company's assets and equity have been growing, supporting future expansion.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows a volatile but positive free cash flow trend, indicating good cash generation capability. However, recent operating cash flow dropped to zero, raising concerns about operational cash sustainability. Nonetheless, previous years show strong free cash flow to net income ratios, highlighting effective cash management.

Breakdown
Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
108.42B	112.86B	103.15B	117.06B	101.86B
	Gross Profit
25.47B	25.72B	21.62B	23.11B	21.29B
	EBIT
9.17B	9.10B	6.20B	5.58B	5.86B
	EBITDA
10.48B	11.53B	6.96B	6.25B	6.31B
	Net Income Common Stockholders
7.74B	8.12B	6.30B	4.68B	5.91B
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
28.22B	27.90B	23.53B	21.68B	19.32B
	Total Assets
74.94B	72.32B	65.48B	62.29B	58.94B
	Total Debt
3.05B	2.34B	3.66B	3.21B	2.70B
	Net Debt
-23.30B	-23.07B	-18.28B	-13.08B	-9.29B
	Total Liabilities
33.39B	33.76B	31.40B	28.46B	29.56B
	Stockholders Equity
39.97B	36.96B	32.75B	32.63B	28.50B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
0.00	9.18B	7.42B	3.17B	9.55B
	Operating Cash Flow
0.00	14.41B	10.52B	6.74B	11.82B
	Investing Cash Flow
0.00	-5.16B	1.05B	-2.33B	-6.70B
	Financing Cash Flow
0.00	-6.15B	-5.57B	-58.79M	-20.84M

Vipshop Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 12.46
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For VIPS, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 12.46 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 14.00, below the 50-day MA of 14.78, and below the 200-day MA of 13.73, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.82 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 31.62 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 11.08 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for VIPS.

Vipshop Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
VIPS	78 Outperform	$6.35B	6.21	20.12%	3.31%	-5.47%	-2.19%
MNSO	76 Outperform	$4.90B	13.48	26.89%	4.21%	10.01%	4.13%
RVLV	73 Outperform	$1.40B	28.64	12.04%	―	5.73%	81.83%
CHWY	73 Outperform	$14.38B	39.19	101.78%	―	6.40%	891.13%
ETSY	63 Neutral	$4.55B	18.62	-39.97%	―	2.18%	5.77%
Sector *	60 Neutral	$7.23B	11.55	3.67%	4.04%	2.96%	-13.54%
W	30 Underperform	$3.19B	―	17.86%	―	-1.27%	38.07%