Vacasa (VCSA) AI Stock Analysis

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Vacasa

(NASDAQ:VCSA)

51Neutral

Vacasa's overall score reflects significant financial struggles with declining revenue and persistent losses. While technical indicators suggest mixed momentum, the company's valuation remains unattractive due to negative profitability. The recent strategic merger announcement with Casago Holdings offers a potential positive outlook, but the company must navigate substantial industry challenges and improve financial health to enhance its stock performance.

Positive Factors

Cost Management

Management's focus on improving its cost structure and the closing of an initial $30M senior secured convertible notes should help alleviate some balance sheet risk.

Strategic Moves

Vacasa announced a strategic merger with Casago, a vacation rental property management company.

Negative Factors

Earnings

VCSA shares declined approximately 4% following its 3Q earnings release, attributed to ongoing operational challenges and lack of visibility into its future business outcome.

Market Conditions

The short-term rental industry continues to adjust to softening demand for domestic, non-urban vacation rentals, as well as increases in the supply of short-term rental units.

Operational Performance

Analyst checks point to ongoing pressure in the business with a double-digit decline in property listings and site traffic down by more than 30%.

Valuation

The offer amounts to an equity value of ~$129M and enterprise value of ~$135M, which is seen as a full valuation for a business with a declining topline and EBITDA losses.

Vacasa (VCSA) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Market Cap

$138.62M

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)223.28K

Price to Earnings (P/E)―

Beta (1Y)1.21

Revenue Growth-18.56%

EPS Growth69.22%

CountryUS

Employees4,300

SectorTechnology

Sector Strength45

IndustrySoftware - Application

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)-7.53

Shares Outstanding20,431,936

10 Day Avg. Volume284,156

30 Day Avg. Volume223,276

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG RatioN/A

Price to Book (P/B)N/A

Price to Sales (P/S)0.14

Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)-0.60

P/FCF Ratio0.00

Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$5.00

Price Target Upside-7.24% Downside

Rating ConsensusHold

Number of Analyst Covering0

Vacasa Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionVacasa, Inc. operates vacation rental management platform in North America, Belize, and Costa Rica. The company enables guests to search, discover, and book its properties on Vacasa.com and the Vacasa Guest App. It also provides services to buy and sell vacation homes through its network of real estate agents. The company was founded in 2009 and is headquartered in Portland, Oregon.

How the Company Makes MoneyVacasa makes money primarily through fees charged to homeowners for managing their vacation rental properties. The company earns a percentage of the rental income generated from each booking, typically ranging from 25% to 35% of the total booking value. This fee covers services such as listing the property on various platforms, handling bookings, guest communication, cleaning, and maintenance. Additionally, Vacasa may earn revenue from providing ancillary services like linen rentals, concierge services, and travel insurance. Partnerships with online travel agencies and platforms help expand their reach and increase bookings, contributing to the company's earnings.

Vacasa Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Vacasa faces significant financial challenges, with declining revenue and persistent losses as reflected in their income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow. The company struggles with profitability and relies heavily on external financing to sustain operations.

Income Statement

Neutral

Vacasa's income statement reveals a challenging financial picture with declining revenue and persistent losses. The revenue decreased from $1.117 billion in 2023 to $910.485 million in 2024, showing a negative growth trend. Despite achieving a gross profit margin of 53.1% in 2024, the company suffers from negative net and EBIT margins at -10.5% and -16.2% respectively, indicating profitability issues.

Balance Sheet

Neutral

The balance sheet shows a weak equity position with stockholders' equity at $34.067 million, down from $131.053 million in 2023. The company's debt-to-equity ratio is favorable due to zero debt as of 2024, but the low equity ratio of 6.4% indicates limited financial cushion. Return on equity remains negative, reflecting sustained losses.

Cash Flow

Neutral

Cash flow analysis highlights a concerning decline in free cash flow from -$64.41 million in 2023 to -$112.357 million in 2024. Operating cash flow is negative, and the company shows significant free cash flow to net income ratio reflecting ongoing cash burn, while financing cash flow has been positive, indicating reliance on external financing.

Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
910.49M	1.12B	1.19B	889.06M	491.76M
	Gross Profit
483.40M	598.30M	623.58M	448.31M	235.67M
	EBIT
-147.62M	-70.28M	-146.96M	-125.40M	-79.41M
	EBITDA
-147.62M	-426.87M	-227.13M	-60.81M	-50.45M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-95.19M	-298.70M	-332.15M	-154.59M	-92.34M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
88.54M	88.05M	157.81M	353.84M	218.48M
	Total Assets
535.93M	663.55M	1.31B	1.64B	587.25M
	Total Debt
139.23M	25.87M	31.32M	512.00K	111.69M
	Net Debt
-88.54M	-62.18M	-126.49M	-353.33M	-106.80M
	Total Liabilities
468.78M	455.90M	585.64M	618.76M	1.16B
	Stockholders Equity
34.07M	131.05M	413.00M	-751.95M	-576.85M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-112.36M	-64.41M	-70.54M	52.02M	-11.90M
	Operating Cash Flow
-110.03M	-51.71M	-51.91M	63.27M	-2.43M
	Investing Cash Flow
-8.17M	-13.37M	-108.17M	-114.63M	-12.67M
	Financing Cash Flow
94.86M	-28.05M	-39.07M	279.61M	96.46M

Vacasa Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Neutral

Last Price5.39

Price Trends

50DMA

5.30

Positive

100DMA

4.92

Positive

200DMA

4.09

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

0.03

Positive

RSI

51.13

Neutral

STOCH

19.52

Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For VCSA, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 5.39 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.40, above the 50-day MA of 5.30, and above the 200-day MA of 4.09, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.03 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 51.13 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 19.52 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for VCSA.

Vacasa Risk Analysis

Vacasa disclosed 69 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Vacasa reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Vacasa Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (59)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	59 Neutral	$10.59B	10.09	-6.37%	3.05%	7.44%	-10.67%
EB	56 Neutral	$199.67M	―	-8.60%	―	-0.33%	38.78%
MAPS	54 Neutral	$171.33M	14.19	29.12%	―	-1.85%	―
FRGE	52 Neutral	$116.55M	―	-27.24%	―	13.62%	30.26%
VCSA	51 Neutral	$138.62M	―	-123.26%	―	-18.56%	69.22%
SMRT	50 Neutral	$155.59M	―	-10.65%	―	-26.16%	2.89%
ONTF	48 Neutral	$194.70M	―	-24.82%	―	-9.55%	12.28%

* Technology Sector Average

Performance Comparison

VCSA

Vacasa

5.39

-1.49

-21.66%

Eventbrite

2.11

-3.09

-59.42%

MAPS

WM Technology

1.11

0.03

2.78%

FRGE

Forge Global Holdings

12.71

-15.94

-55.64%

ONTF

ON24

4.68

-1.98

-29.73%

SMRT

SmartRent

0.89

-1.43

-61.64%

Vacasa Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date: Mar 12, 2025 | % Change Since: 6.10% | Next Earnings Date: May 7, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

The earnings call highlighted successful operational improvements and cost reductions, alongside significant challenges in gross booking values, home churn, and industry-wide headwinds. While there are promising developments in operational efficiency, the financial metrics reflect ongoing struggles in the market.

Highlights

Successful Summer Peak Season

Vacasa served nearly 400,000 guest reservations and generated over $300 million of income for homeowners. Guest satisfaction and review scores increased year-over-year.

Operational Efficiency Improvements

The company localized decision-making, allowing teams to make market-level decisions, improving hospitality experience and operational efficiency.

AI Integration

Initial progress in leveraging artificial intelligence to enhance service outcomes and improve efficiency for homeowner and guest-facing teams.

Cost Reduction Achievements

Significant year-over-year declines in operating expenses due to restructuring, with sales and marketing expenses down 30%, technology and development expenses down 41%, and general and administrative expenses down 10%.

Lowlights

Gross Booking Value Decline

Gross booking value was $670 million, down 19% year-over-year, with nights sold down 21% year-over-year.

Home Churn and Revenue Decline

The number of homes on the platform decreased from approximately 40,000 to 38,000, with revenue down 17% year-over-year due to ongoing churn.

Industry-Wide Headwinds

Ongoing challenges in the short-term rental market, including increased supply and softer demand, resulting in decreased gross booking value per home and elevated churn.

Bookings Variability Impact

Adjusted EBITDA was $69 million, down from $74 million year-over-year, affected by bookings variability and gross booking value declines.

Company Guidance

In the third quarter of 2024, Vacasa reported several key metrics during its earnings call. Gross booking value was $670 million, reflecting a 19% year-over-year decline, while nights sold totaled 1.6 million, down 21% from the previous year. Despite these decreases, gross booking value per night sold increased by 2% to $413. The company managed approximately 38,000 homes by the end of the quarter, a reduction from 40,000 in the previous quarter, indicating ongoing churn. Revenue for the period was $314 million, marking a 17% decline year-over-year. Cost of revenue and operations and support expenses both declined by 16% year-over-year, remaining consistent as a percentage of revenue at 40% and 17%, respectively. Adjusted EBITDA was $69 million, down from $74 million in the third quarter of 2023. Despite the challenges, early bookings for the first quarter of 2025 are pacing slightly better compared to the same time in 2023, although the company remains cautious due to industry volatility.

Vacasa Corporate Events

M&A TransactionsShareholder Meetings

Vacasa Announces Merger with Casago Holdings

Positive

Apr 18, 2025

On April 18, 2025, Vacasa, Inc. announced a proposed merger with Casago Holdings, LLC, where Casago will acquire all outstanding shares of Vacasa for $5.30 per share. The merger is subject to stockholder approval, with a special meeting scheduled for April 29, 2025. The company also rejected a revised unsolicited proposal from Davidson Kempner Capital Management LP, deeming it neither a Superior Proposal nor likely to result in one. The merger is seen as the best path forward to maximize value for Vacasa stockholders.

Spark’s Take on VCSA Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, VCSA is a Neutral.

Vacasa faces significant financial challenges with declining revenues and profitability issues. However, the proposed transaction with Casago Holdings offers a glimmer of optimism, providing potential near-term value. Despite mixed technical indicators and an unattractive valuation, the strategic merger could offer some positive outlook, but the company must navigate substantial industry challenges and improve financial health to enhance its stock performance.

To see Spark’s full report on VCSA stock, click here.

M&A Transactions

Vacasa Receives Acquisition Proposal from Davidson Kempner

Neutral

Apr 14, 2025

On April 12, 2025, Vacasa, Inc.’s Special Committee of the Board of Directors responded to a proposal from Davidson Kempner to acquire all outstanding common stock of the company. This development could significantly impact Vacasa’s ownership structure and market positioning, though the letter and its contents are not subject to liability under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934.

Spark’s Take on VCSA Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, VCSA is a Neutral.

To see Spark’s full report on VCSA stock, click here.

M&A TransactionsShareholder Meetings

Vacasa Announces All-Cash Offer with Casago

Positive

Apr 10, 2025

On April 9, 2025, Vacasa, Inc. announced an all-cash offer of $5.30 per share as part of a transaction with Casago, which represents a significant premium over the previous share price. This proposal is deemed to be in the best interests of Vacasa’s shareholders, providing near-term value and certainty. The transaction is expected to close in late April or early May, and it aims to eliminate risks associated with public shareholders’ investments and potential transaction delays. The Special Committee and Board recommend shareholders vote in favor of the transaction, highlighting its alignment with shareholder interests.

Spark’s Take on VCSA Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, VCSA is a Neutral.

Vacasa faces significant financial challenges with declining revenues and profitability issues. The proposed transaction with Casago Holdings offers a glimmer of optimism, providing potential near-term value. However, the company’s financial health and ongoing market struggles weigh heavily on its stock performance.

To see Spark’s full report on VCSA stock, click here.

M&A TransactionsShareholder Meetings

Vacasa Proposes Beneficial Transaction with Casago Holdings

Positive

Apr 9, 2025

On April 8, 2025, Vacasa, Inc. began using new materials for investor presentations, highlighting a proposed transaction with Casago Holdings, LLC. The transaction is deemed beneficial for Vacasa shareholders, offering a significant premium on shares and providing near-term value and certainty. The proposed all-cash offer of $5.30 per share represents an increase from Casago’s initial proposal and aims to de-risk public shareholders’ investments. Vacasa’s board recommends shareholders vote in favor of the transaction, with a target closing date in late April or early May 2025.

Spark’s Take on VCSA Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, VCSA is a Neutral.

Vacasa’s overall score reflects significant financial struggles, with declining revenue and persistent losses. While technical indicators suggest mixed momentum, the company’s valuation remains unattractive due to negative profitability. The recent strategic merger announcement offers a potential positive outlook, but the company must navigate substantial industry challenges and improve financial health to enhance its stock performance.

To see Spark’s full report on VCSA stock, click here.

Glossary

OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.

NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.

UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.