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Vacasa (VCSA)
NASDAQ:VCSA
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Vacasa
(NASDAQ:VCSA)
52Neutral
Positive Factors
Cost Structure Improvement
Management's focus on improving its cost structure and the closing of an initial $30M senior secured convertible notes should help alleviate some balance sheet risk.
Equity Premium
Casago will acquire all outstanding shares of Vacasa at a 32% premium compared to the previous close.
Strategic Merger
Vacasa announced a strategic merger with Casago, a vacation rental property management company.
Negative Factors
Decline in Bookings
Bookings were down for a sixth straight quarter with property count, occupancy and ADR all trending lower.
Lack of Guidance
Management did not issue guidance for 4Q, citing ongoing business pressures such as supplier churn and bookings softness, causing shares to decline.
Site Traffic Decline
Site traffic declines widened from -20% to -34%, indicating a challenging period ahead for VCSA.
Vacasa (VCSA) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)
Market Cap
$138.36M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)178.39K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.75
Revenue Growth-18.56%
EPS Growth69.22%
CountryUS
Employees4,300
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength44
IndustrySoftware - Application
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-7.53
Shares Outstanding20,431,936
10 Day Avg. Volume156,797
30 Day Avg. Volume178,388
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG RatioN/A
Price to Book (P/B)N/A
Price to Sales (P/S)0.14
Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)-0.60
P/FCF Ratio0.00
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$5.00Price Target Upside-7.06% Downside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering0
Vacasa Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionVacasa, Inc. operates vacation rental management platform in North America, Belize, and Costa Rica. The company enables guests to search, discover, and book its properties on Vacasa.com and the Vacasa Guest App. It also provides services to buy and sell vacation homes through its network of real estate agents. The company was founded in 2009 and is headquartered in Portland, Oregon.
How the Company Makes MoneyVacasa makes money primarily through fees charged to homeowners for managing their vacation rental properties. The company earns a percentage of the rental income generated from each booking, typically ranging from 25% to 35% of the total booking value. This fee covers services such as listing the property on various platforms, handling bookings, guest communication, cleaning, and maintenance. Additionally, Vacasa may earn revenue from providing ancillary services like linen rentals, concierge services, and travel insurance. Partnerships with online travel agencies and platforms help expand their reach and increase bookings, contributing to the company's earnings.
Vacasa Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Vacasa faces significant financial challenges, with declining revenue and persistent losses as reflected in their income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow. The company struggles with profitability and relies heavily on external financing to sustain operations.Income Statement
Vacasa's income statement reveals a challenging financial picture with declining revenue and persistent losses. The revenue decreased from $1.117 billion in 2023 to $910.485 million in 2024, showing a negative growth trend. Despite achieving a gross profit margin of 53.1% in 2024, the company suffers from negative net and EBIT margins at -10.5% and -16.2% respectively, indicating profitability issues.47
Neutral
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet shows a weak equity position with stockholders' equity at $34.067 million, down from $131.053 million in 2023. The company's debt-to-equity ratio is favorable due to zero debt as of 2024, but the low equity ratio of 6.4% indicates limited financial cushion. Return on equity remains negative, reflecting sustained losses.52
Neutral
Cash Flow
Cash flow analysis highlights a concerning decline in free cash flow from -$64.41 million in 2023 to -$112.357 million in 2024. Operating cash flow is negative, and the company shows significant free cash flow to net income ratio reflecting ongoing cash burn, while financing cash flow has been positive, indicating reliance on external financing.45
Neutral
| Breakdown | ||||
| Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | |||
| 910.49M | 1.12B | 1.19B | 889.06M | 491.76M | Gross Profit |
| 483.40M | 598.30M | 623.58M | 448.31M | 235.67M | EBIT |
| -147.62M | -70.28M | -146.96M | -125.40M | -79.41M | EBITDA |
| -147.62M | -426.87M | -227.13M | -60.81M | -50.45M | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| -95.19M | -298.70M | -332.15M | -154.59M | -92.34M |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | |||
| 88.54M | 88.05M | 157.81M | 353.84M | 218.48M | Total Assets |
| 535.93M | 663.55M | 1.31B | 1.64B | 587.25M | Total Debt |
| 139.23M | 25.87M | 31.32M | 512.00K | 111.69M | Net Debt |
| -88.54M | -62.18M | -126.49M | -353.33M | -106.80M | Total Liabilities |
| 468.78M | 455.90M | 585.64M | 618.76M | 1.16B | Stockholders Equity |
| 34.07M | 131.05M | 413.00M | -751.95M | -576.85M |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | |||
| -112.36M | -64.41M | -70.54M | 52.02M | -11.90M | Operating Cash Flow |
| -110.03M | -51.71M | -51.91M | 63.27M | -2.43M | Investing Cash Flow |
| -8.17M | -13.37M | -108.17M | -114.63M | -12.67M | Financing Cash Flow |
| 94.86M | -28.05M | -39.07M | 279.61M | 96.46M |
Vacasa Technical Analysis
Positive
5.38
Price Trends
5.22
Positive
4.57
Positive
4.03
Positive
Market Momentum
0.08
Positive
57.65
Neutral
16.05
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For VCSA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 5.38 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.31, above the 50-day MA of 5.22, and above the 200-day MA of 4.03, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.08 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 57.65 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 16.05 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for VCSA.
Vacasa Risk Analysis
Vacasa disclosed 69 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Vacasa reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Vacasa Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (57)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $76.10B | 28.89 | 31.95% | ― | 11.95% | -44.02% | |
75 Outperform | $21.66B | 18.58 | 79.84% | ― | 6.64% | 69.85% | |
72 Outperform | $151.18B | 26.68 | -146.32% | 0.76% | 11.11% | 47.03% | |
67 Neutral | $41.36B | 18.47 | 12.91% | 0.44% | 18.12% | 69.44% | |
61 Neutral | $1.99B | 858.79 | 0.55% | ― | 2.63% | -58.77% | |
57 Neutral | $20.97B | 10.32 | -14.01% | 2.49% | 4.46% | -23.38% | |
52 Neutral | $138.36M | ― | -123.26% | ― | -18.56% | 69.22% |
* Technology Sector Average
Performance Comparison
VCSA
Vacasa
5.39
-0.85
-13.62%
TCOM
Trip.com Group Ltd. Sponsored ADR
63.17
14.48
29.74%
EXPE
Expedia
167.70
36.29
27.62%
BKNG
Booking Holdings
4,685.75
1,149.20
32.49%
TRIP
TripAdvisor
14.03
-13.69
-49.39%
ABNB
Airbnb
121.18
-38.93
-24.31%
Vacasa Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date: Mar 12, 2025 | % Change Since: 5.91% | Next Earnings Date: May 7, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call highlighted successful operational improvements and cost reductions, alongside significant challenges in gross booking values, home churn, and industry-wide headwinds. While there are promising developments in operational efficiency, the financial metrics reflect ongoing struggles in the market.Highlights
Successful Summer Peak Season
Vacasa served nearly 400,000 guest reservations and generated over $300 million of income for homeowners. Guest satisfaction and review scores increased year-over-year.
Operational Efficiency Improvements
The company localized decision-making, allowing teams to make market-level decisions, improving hospitality experience and operational efficiency.
AI Integration
Initial progress in leveraging artificial intelligence to enhance service outcomes and improve efficiency for homeowner and guest-facing teams.
Cost Reduction Achievements
Significant year-over-year declines in operating expenses due to restructuring, with sales and marketing expenses down 30%, technology and development expenses down 41%, and general and administrative expenses down 10%.
Lowlights
Gross Booking Value Decline
Gross booking value was $670 million, down 19% year-over-year, with nights sold down 21% year-over-year.
Home Churn and Revenue Decline
The number of homes on the platform decreased from approximately 40,000 to 38,000, with revenue down 17% year-over-year due to ongoing churn.
Industry-Wide Headwinds
Ongoing challenges in the short-term rental market, including increased supply and softer demand, resulting in decreased gross booking value per home and elevated churn.
Bookings Variability Impact
Adjusted EBITDA was $69 million, down from $74 million year-over-year, affected by bookings variability and gross booking value declines.
Company Guidance
In the third quarter of 2024, Vacasa reported several key metrics during its earnings call. Gross booking value was $670 million, reflecting a 19% year-over-year decline, while nights sold totaled 1.6 million, down 21% from the previous year. Despite these decreases, gross booking value per night sold increased by 2% to $413. The company managed approximately 38,000 homes by the end of the quarter, a reduction from 40,000 in the previous quarter, indicating ongoing churn. Revenue for the period was $314 million, marking a 17% decline year-over-year. Cost of revenue and operations and support expenses both declined by 16% year-over-year, remaining consistent as a percentage of revenue at 40% and 17%, respectively. Adjusted EBITDA was $69 million, down from $74 million in the third quarter of 2023. Despite the challenges, early bookings for the first quarter of 2025 are pacing slightly better compared to the same time in 2023, although the company remains cautious due to industry volatility.Vacasa Corporate Events
M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Vacasa and Casago Announce Strategic Merger Agreement
Positive
Dec 31, 2024
Vacasa and Casago have announced a merger that will create a significant vacation rental management platform, with Casago acquiring all outstanding shares of Vacasa for $5.02 per share. The merger, subject to shareholder approval and other customary conditions, is expected to close by mid-2025, resulting in Vacasa becoming a privately held company. This strategic combination aims to enhance service quality and operational scale, with Roofstock providing strategic guidance and investment. The merger is seen as beneficial to homeowners, guests, and partners by leveraging both companies’ strengths and enhancing Vacasa’s focus on local management and homeowner-centric services.
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.