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Transat AT V & VV (TSE:TRZ)
TSX:TRZ

Transat AT V & VV (TRZ) AI Stock Analysis

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Transat AT V & VV

(TSX:TRZ)

40Neutral
Transat AT V & VV is grappling with substantial financial challenges, including ongoing losses and high leverage, which significantly weigh on its stock score. Despite some revenue recovery and operational improvements, the stock is technically weak, trading below key averages with negative momentum. The company's negative valuation metrics further underscore investor caution. While recent earnings calls and corporate events show efforts towards improvement, macroeconomic uncertainties and operational hurdles continue to pose risks.

Transat AT V & VV (TRZ) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Transat AT V & VV Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionTransat A.T. Inc is a Canadian company which specializes in the organization, marketing and distribution of holiday travel in the tourism industry. The company's core business consists of tour operators based in Canada and Europe which are vertically integrated with its other services of air transportation, distribution through a dynamic travel agency network, value-added services at travel destinations and accommodations.
How the Company Makes MoneyTransat AT V & VV generates revenue through a diversified business model centered around its core operations in the travel and tourism industry. The company's primary revenue streams include the sale of vacation packages, which bundle flights and accommodations, and the operation of its airline, Air Transat, which provides scheduled and charter flights. Additional income is derived from hotel operations, travel agency services, and the sale of ancillary travel products and services. Key partnerships with tourism boards, hotels, and other travel-related entities enhance its offerings and contribute to its earnings. Seasonal demand, competitive pricing strategies, and a focus on popular travel destinations are significant factors impacting its revenue.

Transat AT V & VV Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Transat AT V & VV faces significant financial challenges with ongoing net losses, high leverage, and negative equity impacting financial stability. While revenue recovery suggests potential post-pandemic resilience, substantial improvements in profitability and cash management are needed to enhance long-term viability.
Income Statement
45
Neutral
The income statement shows a mixed performance with a recent increase in revenue but persistent net losses. Gross profit margin is positive, indicating some efficiency in covering direct costs, yet the company struggles with high operating expenses, leading to negative EBIT and net income margins. Revenue growth has been volatile, recovering from pandemic lows, but profitability remains a concern.
Balance Sheet
30
Negative
The balance sheet reveals a weak financial position, characterized by negative stockholders' equity, indicating potential insolvency risks. The debt-to-equity ratio is unfavorable due to substantial liabilities overshadowing equity, raising financial leverage concerns. The equity ratio is negative, highlighting a reliance on debt financing, which could limit financial flexibility.
Cash Flow
40
Negative
Cash flow analysis indicates challenges in generating free cash flow, with negative growth in recent years. The operating cash flow to net income ratio suggests some positive cash generation despite losses, but free cash flow remains negative. This reflects pressures on liquidity and a need for improved cost management to enhance cash positions.
Breakdown
Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
3.28B3.05B1.64B124.82M1.30B
Gross Profit
347.67M415.68M-92.26M-138.79M51.49M
EBIT
-12.73M89.73M-303.42M-401.22M-325.12M
EBITDA
251.55M288.97M-191.23M-148.91M-235.64M
Net Income Common Stockholders
-114.03M-25.29M-445.32M-389.44M-496.76M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
260.34M435.65M322.54M433.19M426.43M
Total Assets
2.75B2.57B2.27B1.90B2.02B
Total Debt
2.15B1.89B1.75B1.42B903.89M
Net Debt
1.89B1.45B1.43B986.34M477.45M
Total Liabilities
3.64B3.35B3.02B2.21B1.95B
Stockholders Equity
-889.08M-779.04M-750.18M-315.11M66.31M
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
-43.90M264.18M-210.38M-524.04M-107.56M
Operating Cash Flow
94.67M321.75M-177.85M-518.44M-46.14M
Investing Cash Flow
-31.45M-7.93M-33.78M4.54M-60.41M
Financing Cash Flow
-240.29M-203.02M99.69M522.07M-33.37M

Transat AT V & VV Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price1.54
Price Trends
50DMA
1.81
Negative
100DMA
1.82
Negative
200DMA
1.99
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.04
Positive
RSI
23.98
Positive
STOCH
7.69
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:TRZ, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1.54 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.74, below the 50-day MA of 1.81, and below the 200-day MA of 1.99, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.04 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 23.98 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 7.69 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:TRZ.

Transat AT V & VV Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (59)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
TSEIF
69
Neutral
C$2.49B19.589.13%5.29%6.46%-5.54%
TSCHR
61
Neutral
C$551.72M-1.28%-12.40%-529.26%
59
Neutral
$12.50B10.402.26%3.63%1.65%-18.81%
57
Neutral
C$7.02B17.903.54%0.41%-17.78%-41.13%
TSTRZ
40
Neutral
C$66.08M12.83%7.72%-339.61%
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE:TRZ
Transat AT V & VV
1.54
-2.36
-60.51%
ACDVF
Air Canada
10.51
-2.99
-22.15%
TSE:CHR
Chorus Aviation
20.42
5.86
40.25%
TSE:EIF
Exchange Income
49.10
2.94
6.37%
TSE:ONEX
ONEX Corporation
96.56
-3.04
-3.05%
TSE:CAI
Capitan Investment Ltd.
0.02
0.00
0.00%

Transat AT V & VV Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date: Mar 13, 2025 | % Change Since: -7.78% | Next Earnings Date: Jun 12, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a mixed picture with revenue growth and operational improvements on one side and challenges like grounded aircraft and macroeconomic uncertainties on the other. While there were significant achievements in terms of revenue growth and operational efficiency, the increase in net loss and grounded aircraft issues highlighted ongoing challenges.
Highlights
Revenue Growth
Revenue grew 5.6% to $830 million in the first quarter of fiscal 2025, driven by positive yields and reduced fuel costs.
Adjusted EBITDA Improvement
Adjusted EBITDA reached $20 million compared to negative $3 million in the same quarter last year.
Efficiency Gains from Technology
The Elevation program initiatives are on track to generate $100 million in adjusted EBITDA by mid-2026, with significant efficiency gains and cost savings achieved through technology and AI.
Operational Performance
On-time performance improved by more than four percentage points year-over-year, marking the third consecutive quarter of significant progress.
Cash Flow Improvement
Cash flow from operating activities totaled $169 million, up from $111 million in the first quarter last year.
Lowlights
Grounded Aircraft Impact
The number of grounded aircraft due to Pratt and Whitney GTF engine issues has fluctuated between six and seven, introducing cost escalation and operational volatility.
Net Loss Increase
Net loss amounted to $123 million in the first quarter of 2025, compared to $61 million in the first quarter of 2024.
Macroeconomic Uncertainties
Potential impact of U.S. tariffs and Canadian dollar depreciation on costs and consumer confidence, affecting travel demand.
Company Guidance
During the Transat conference call for the first quarter of fiscal year 2025, Annick Guerard, President and CEO, highlighted a 5.6% increase in revenue to $830 million and an adjusted EBITDA of $20 million, driven by positive yield developments, reduced fuel costs, and tight control over operating expenses. Revenue passenger miles grew by 1%, and yield improved by 1.7% year-over-year, despite a stable load factor. Available seat miles increased by 0.5%, indicating strategic capacity planning. The Elevation program is expected to contribute an annualized adjusted EBITDA of $37 million, aiming for $100 million by mid-2026. Despite engine issues with Pratt & Whitney GTF, the fleet remains at 44 aircraft for winter and 43 for summer. Network expansions include new routes to Berlin and Valencia, and a partnership with Air Europa. Operational improvements were noted, with on-time performance up by over four percentage points. The company remains focused on refinancing debt and enhancing financial stability amidst economic uncertainties, with ongoing negotiations for a new collective agreement with its pilot union.

Transat AT V & VV Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Transat A.T. Inc. Reports Revenue Growth and Strategic Progress in Q1 Fiscal 2025
Neutral
Mar 13, 2025

Transat A.T. Inc. reported a 5.6% increase in first-quarter revenues for fiscal 2025, reaching $829.5 million, driven by higher traffic and disciplined capacity management. Despite a net loss of $122.5 million, the company saw improvements in adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow, attributed to reduced fuel costs and operational efficiencies. The Elevation Program, aimed at optimizing long-term growth, is on track to achieve significant cost savings and efficiency gains, with a target of $100 million by mid-2026. The company is also focused on refinancing its debt and strengthening its balance sheet, extending the maturity dates of its financing agreements to provide greater flexibility in ongoing discussions with stakeholders.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Transat A.T. Inc. Extends Maturity of LEEFF Financing for Enhanced Stability
Positive
Feb 3, 2025

Transat A.T. Inc. has successfully extended the maturity of its $312 million unsecured financing through the Large Employer Emergency Financing Facility (LEEFF) from April 2026 to April 2027. This extension, along with changes to its revolving and secured credit facilities, provides the company with enhanced financial stability, potentially benefiting its operations and stakeholders.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.