Restaurant Brands International (TSE:QSR)
TSX:QSR
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Restaurant Brands International
(TSX:QSR)
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Rating:62Neutral
Price Target:
C$93.00
▼(-12.85% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:09/21/25
The overall score of 62 for Restaurant Brands International reflects a balanced but cautious outlook. The most significant factor is the mixed financial performance (score: 63, weight: 40%), with strong profitability and cash flow offset by high leverage. Positive earnings call guidance (score: 78, weight: 10%) provides some optimism, while neutral technical indicators (score: 55, weight: 30%) and fair valuation (score: 60, weight: 20%) suggest limited immediate upside potential.
Positive Factors
Franchise-based, recurring royalty model
A capital-light, franchising model produces recurring royalty and fee income tied to system sales rather than store-level capex. That structural revenue mix supports predictable cash flows, scalability via franchise development, and lower operating leverage over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Very high financial leverage
Elevated debt relative to equity materially increases refinancing, interest-rate and covenant risk. High leverage constrains capital allocation, limits ability to invest in growth or withstand downturns, and keeps strategic choices sensitive to macro and funding conditions.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Franchise-based, recurring royalty model
A capital-light, franchising model produces recurring royalty and fee income tied to system sales rather than store-level capex. That structural revenue mix supports predictable cash flows, scalability via franchise development, and lower operating leverage over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
Restaurant Brands International (QSR) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$48.69B
Dividend Yield3.59%
Average Volume (3M)1.71M
Price to Earnings (P/E)50.4
Beta (1Y)0.36
Revenue Growth25.29%
EPS Growth-32.66%
CountryCA
Employees37,600
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryRestaurants
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)N/A
Shares Outstanding346,504,180
10 Day Avg. Volume2,282,980
30 Day Avg. Volume1,707,554
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.11
Price to Book (P/B)6.27
Price to Sales (P/S)2.42
P/FCF Ratio15.73
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$110.41Price Target Upside3.47% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering18
EPS Forecast (FY)5.04
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$12.80B
Restaurant Brands International Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Restaurant Brands International Inc. operates as quick service restaurant company in Canada and internationally. It operates through four segments: Tim Hortons (TH), Burger King (BK), Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen (PLK), and Firehouse Subs (FHS). The ...
How the Company Makes Money
Restaurant Brands International generates revenue primarily through its franchising model, which allows the company to earn significant fees from franchisees based on sales and royalties. Additionally, it makes money from company-operated restaura...
Restaurant Brands International Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 12, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a broadly positive tone: the company delivered consistent and predictable earnings growth (third consecutive year of ~8% organic AOI growth) with strong International momentum, Tim Hortons resilience, meaningful cash generation, and progress on refranchising. Key negatives included commodity-driven pressure (notably beef) that compressed Burger King franchisee profitability, weaker Popeyes sales and execution challenges, a temporary P&L headwind from BK China classification in 2025, and a near-term lull in consolidated unit growth. Management provided actions and guidance to mitigate these issues and reiterated a commitment to another year of 8% AOI growth in 2026, indicating confidence that the positives outweigh the headwinds.Positive Updates
Consistent Earnings Growth
Organic adjusted operating income (AOI) growth of 8.3% for FY2025 and nominal adjusted EPS growth of 10.7% to $3.69 per share — the third consecutive year of roughly 8% organic AOI growth.
Negative Updates
Popeyes Sales and Profitability Softness
Popeyes net restaurant growth +1.6% but comparable sales down -3.2% for FY2025, resulting in system-wide sales decline of -0.7% and a decline in average franchisee profitability to roughly $235,000; company has initiated leadership and operational changes to address execution weaknesses.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Consistent Earnings Growth
Organic adjusted operating income (AOI) growth of 8.3% for FY2025 and nominal adjusted EPS growth of 10.7% to $3.69 per share — the third consecutive year of roughly 8% organic AOI growth.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided to deliver a fourth consecutive year of on‑algorithm ~8% organic adjusted operating income (AOI) growth in 2026, while projecting segment G&A (ex‑Restaurant Holdings) of ~$600–620M (vs $594M in 2025), net adjusted interest expense roughly flat at ~$500–520M (assumes mid‑3% SOFR impacting ~15% of debt), and CapEx plus cash inducements of ~ $400M (vs $365M in 2025); Tim Hortons supply‑chain margins are expected roughly in line with 2025 and Q1 is forecast to be the softest margin quarter. They expect modestly positive net restaurant growth from Burger King China in 2026 (noting that returning BK China to neutral NRG would imply ~70 basis points to consolidated 2025 unit growth), China royalties beginning a couple points below a 5% rate and ramping to 5% over time (BK China royalties were $32M in 2024), and Restaurant Holdings AOI of roughly $10–20M with BK Carrols restaurant‑level margin about 11.1% in 2025 and expected to be similar in 2026; management reiterated the goal to reaccelerate toward ~5% net restaurant growth over the algorithm period.Restaurant Brands International Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
75
Positive
Balance Sheet
45
Neutral
Cash Flow
70
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 9.43B | 8.41B | 7.02B | 6.50B | 5.74B |
| Gross Profit | 3.88B | 3.02B | 2.80B | 2.60B | 2.37B |
| EBITDA | 2.42B | 2.66B | 2.24B | 2.07B | 2.04B |
| Net Income | 776.00M | 1.02B | 1.19B | 1.01B | 838.00M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 25.61B | 24.63B | 23.39B | 22.75B | 23.25B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.16B | 1.33B | 1.14B | 1.18B | 1.09B |
| Total Debt | 17.58B | 15.96B | 14.52B | 14.49B | 14.62B |
| Total Liabilities | 20.46B | 19.79B | 18.66B | 18.48B | 19.39B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.63B | 3.11B | 2.87B | 2.50B | 2.24B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.45B | 1.30B | 1.20B | 1.39B | 1.62B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.71B | 1.50B | 1.32B | 1.49B | 1.73B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -399.00M | -660.00M | 11.00M | -64.00M | -1.10B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.44B | -625.00M | -1.37B | -1.31B | -1.09B |
Restaurant Brands International Technical Analysis
Positive
106.71
Price Trends
96.44
Positive
95.97
Positive
92.63
Positive
Market Momentum
2.15
Negative
68.65
Neutral
90.48
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:QSR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 106.71 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 100.91, above the 50-day MA of 96.44, and above the 200-day MA of 92.63, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.15 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 68.65 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 90.48 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:QSR.
Restaurant Brands International Risk Analysis
Restaurant Brands International disclosed 30 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Restaurant Brands International reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Restaurant Brands International Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | $218.19B | 25.46 | -336.89% | 2.31% | 1.26% | 2.87% | |
75 Outperform | $17.37B | 18.45 | 16.41% | 1.98% | 3.29% | 6.72% | |
67 Neutral | $43.19B | 32.22 | 47.00% | ― | 7.31% | 5.26% | |
67 Neutral | $12.47B | 23.81 | -15.28% | 1.63% | 3.92% | 4.98% | |
65 Neutral | $43.15B | 26.98 | -20.57% | 1.84% | 11.60% | -4.33% | |
62 Neutral | C$48.69B | 50.42 | 23.08% | 3.59% | 25.29% | -32.66% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
TSE:QSR
Restaurant Brands International
106.71
21.57
25.33%
CMG
Chipotle
33.16
-13.51
-28.95%
DPZ
Domino's Pizza
370.82
-58.48
-13.62%
MCD
McDonald's
307.14
14.03
4.79%
YUM
Yum! Brands
156.09
13.90
9.77%
YUMC
Yum China Holdings
49.19
4.81
10.85%
Restaurant Brands International Corporate Events
Private Placements and Financing
Restaurant Brands International Announces Pricing of Secondary Offering
Neutral
Nov 14, 2025
Restaurant Brands International Inc. announced the pricing of a secondary offering of up to 17,626,570 common shares initiated by HL1 17 LP, an affiliate of 3G Capital. The offering involves a forward sale agreement with BofA Securities, which wil...
Private Placements and Financing
Restaurant Brands International Announces Exchange and Secondary Offering
Neutral
Nov 14, 2025
Restaurant Brands International Inc. announced the receipt of an exchange notice from HL1 17 LP, an affiliate of 3G Capital, for the exchange of 17,626,570 Class B exchangeable units into common shares. This transaction will not alter the total nu...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Restaurant Brands International Reports Strong Q3 2025 Results
Positive
Oct 30, 2025
Restaurant Brands International Inc. reported a strong third quarter for 2025, with a 6.9% year-over-year growth in consolidated system-wide sales, driven by significant contributions from Tim Hortons and international operations. The company rema...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.