Restaurant Brands International (TSE:QSR)
NYSE:QSR
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Restaurant Brands International
(NYSE:QSR)
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Rating:62Neutral
Price Target:
C$93.00
▼(-13.29% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:09/21/25
The overall score of 62 for Restaurant Brands International reflects a balanced but cautious outlook. The most significant factor is the mixed financial performance (score: 63, weight: 40%), with strong profitability and cash flow offset by high leverage. Positive earnings call guidance (score: 78, weight: 10%) provides some optimism, while neutral technical indicators (score: 55, weight: 30%) and fair valuation (score: 60, weight: 20%) suggest limited immediate upside potential.
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation
Consistent multi-year operating and free cash flow provides durable internal funding for buybacks, dividends, unit development and deleveraging. High FCF supports financial flexibility even if earnings cycle, enabling reinvestment in marketing, unit growth and franchise support over the next 2–6 months and beyond.
Negative Factors
Elevated financial leverage
High leverage increases sensitivity to interest rates and earnings volatility, constraining financial flexibility for M&A, capex or faster buybacks. Reliance on deleveraging plans adds execution risk: if free cash flow or comps soften, balance-sheet pressure could limit strategic optionality over the next several quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong cash generation
Consistent multi-year operating and free cash flow provides durable internal funding for buybacks, dividends, unit development and deleveraging. High FCF supports financial flexibility even if earnings cycle, enabling reinvestment in marketing, unit growth and franchise support over the next 2–6 months and beyond.
Read all positive factors
Restaurant Brands International (QSR) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$47.51B
Dividend Yield3.59%
Average Volume (3M)850.90K
Price to Earnings (P/E)19.0
Beta (1Y)0.36
Revenue Growth8.57%
EPS Growth-4.27%
CountryCA
Employees37,600
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryRestaurants
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)3.22
Shares Outstanding346,983,980
10 Day Avg. Volume970,960
30 Day Avg. Volume850,902
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.11
Price to Book (P/B)6.27
Price to Sales (P/S)2.42
P/FCF Ratio15.73
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$116.67Price Target Upside8.78% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering22
EPS Forecast (FY)5.04
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$12.80B
Restaurant Brands International Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Restaurant Brands International Inc. operates as quick service restaurant company in Canada and internationally. It operates through four segments: Tim Hortons (TH), Burger King (BK), Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen (PLK), and Firehouse Subs (FHS). The ...
How the Company Makes Money
Restaurant Brands International generates revenue primarily through its franchising model, which allows the company to earn significant fees from franchisees based on sales and royalties. Additionally, it makes money from company-operated restaura...
Restaurant Brands International Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 06, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call communicated multiple strong operational and financial wins: company-wide comparable sales and organic AOI growth, solid EPS expansion, robust free cash flow, resumed buybacks and clear international momentum (including a successful BK China JV). Burger King U.S. showed notable reacceleration with sustained operational improvements. Headwinds remain—most prominently a material comp decline at Popeyes, elevated beef inflation pressuring margins and some Restaurant Holdings/start‑up losses—along with elevated net leverage. Management provided actionable remedies (training, value platforms, refranchising progress) and concrete targets for repurchases, development and deleveraging, indicating confidence in recovery. Overall, positive results and clear plans outweigh the identifiable near-term challenges.Positive Updates
Companywide Top-Line and Profitability Growth
Comparable sales +3.2% (Q1), system-wide sales +6.2%, net restaurant growth 2.6%; organic adjusted operating income (AOI) +10.7%; adjusted EPS increased 14.6% to $0.86 from $0.75.
Negative Updates
Popeyes U.S. Comparable Sales Decline
Popeyes comparable sales declined 6.5% in Q1 while net restaurant growth was +1.2%, resulting in system-wide sales decline of 3.9%; company cited execution, core assortment focus and everyday value as areas needing improvement and expects a turnaround in H2 2026.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Companywide Top-Line and Profitability Growth
Comparable sales +3.2% (Q1), system-wide sales +6.2%, net restaurant growth 2.6%; organic adjusted operating income (AOI) +10.7%; adjusted EPS increased 14.6% to $0.86 from $0.75.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
RBI’s 2026 financial guidance: segment G&A (ex‑Restaurant Holdings) of about $600–620M, net adjusted interest expense roughly flat at ~$500–520M (assuming mid‑3% average SOFR, ~15% of debt), CapEx plus tenant inducements of ≈$400M, Tim Hortons supply‑chain margins roughly in line with 2025, and Restaurant Holdings AOI of ~$10–20M for the year (with an expected Tim Hortons AOI drag of ~ $20M in 2026 vs $14M in 2025). Management reiterated a target of ~8% organic AOI growth for 2026, plans to repurchase ≈$500M of shares in 2026 (>$60M repurchased through April 30), generated nearly $200M of free cash flow in Q1 (including $53M CapEx/cash inducements and $26M hedge benefit), returned ~$315M to shareholders in Q1, finished the quarter with ~$1.0B cash and ~$2.3B total liquidity and net leverage of 4.2x, and remains on track to accelerate net restaurant growth toward ~1,800 net new restaurants per year by 2028 and achieve corporate investment‑grade leverage by 2028 (with beef‑cost relief anticipated closer to 2027).Restaurant Brands International Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
75
Positive
Balance Sheet
45
Neutral
Cash Flow
70
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 9.59B | 9.43B | 8.41B | 7.02B | 6.50B | 5.74B |
| Gross Profit | 4.66B | 3.88B | 3.02B | 2.80B | 2.60B | 2.37B |
| EBITDA | 2.57B | 2.42B | 2.66B | 2.24B | 2.07B | 2.04B |
| Net Income | 955.00M | 776.00M | 1.02B | 1.19B | 1.01B | 838.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 24.88B | 25.61B | 24.63B | 23.39B | 22.75B | 23.25B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.01B | 1.16B | 1.33B | 1.14B | 1.18B | 1.09B |
| Total Debt | 15.68B | 17.58B | 15.96B | 14.52B | 14.49B | 14.62B |
| Total Liabilities | 19.59B | 20.46B | 19.79B | 18.66B | 18.48B | 19.39B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.74B | 3.63B | 3.11B | 2.87B | 2.50B | 2.24B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.51B | 1.45B | 1.30B | 1.20B | 1.39B | 1.62B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.77B | 1.71B | 1.50B | 1.32B | 1.49B | 1.73B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -248.84M | -399.00M | -660.00M | 11.00M | -64.00M | -1.10B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.48B | -1.44B | -625.00M | -1.37B | -1.31B | -1.09B |
Restaurant Brands International Technical Analysis
Neutral
107.26
Price Trends
104.89
Negative
99.28
Positive
95.27
Positive
Market Momentum
0.08
Positive
44.19
Neutral
14.65
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:QSR, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 107.26 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 107.81, above the 50-day MA of 104.89, and above the 200-day MA of 95.27, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.08 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 44.19 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 14.65 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TSE:QSR.
Restaurant Brands International Risk Analysis
Restaurant Brands International disclosed 30 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Restaurant Brands International reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Restaurant Brands International Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | $15.88B | 13.93 | 16.97% | 1.98% | 6.72% | 8.73% | |
66 Neutral | $200.70B | 27.85 | -433.95% | 2.31% | 6.76% | 6.96% | |
65 Neutral | $43.29B | 34.31 | 48.45% | ― | 5.67% | -4.28% | |
64 Neutral | $41.98B | 24.92 | -23.33% | 1.84% | 9.65% | 23.32% | |
62 Neutral | C$47.51B | 18.97 | 27.14% | 3.59% | 8.57% | -4.27% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
59 Neutral | $10.25B | 22.18 | -15.04% | 1.63% | 5.17% | -0.62% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
TSE:QSR
Restaurant Brands International
104.03
9.06
9.54%
CMG
Chipotle
33.04
-18.43
-35.81%
DPZ
Domino's Pizza
312.75
-172.11
-35.50%
MCD
McDonald's
280.80
-31.77
-10.16%
YUM
Yum! Brands
152.19
5.97
4.09%
YUMC
Yum China Holdings
45.33
2.27
5.26%
Restaurant Brands International Corporate Events
Private Placements and Financing
Restaurant Brands International Announces Pricing of Secondary Offering
Neutral
Nov 14, 2025
Restaurant Brands International Inc. announced the pricing of a secondary offering of up to 17,626,570 common shares initiated by HL1 17 LP, an affiliate of 3G Capital. The offering involves a forward sale agreement with BofA Securities, which wil...
Private Placements and Financing
Restaurant Brands International Announces Exchange and Secondary Offering
Neutral
Nov 14, 2025
Restaurant Brands International Inc. announced the receipt of an exchange notice from HL1 17 LP, an affiliate of 3G Capital, for the exchange of 17,626,570 Class B exchangeable units into common shares. This transaction will not alter the total nu...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Restaurant Brands International Reports Strong Q3 2025 Results
Positive
Oct 30, 2025
Restaurant Brands International Inc. reported a strong third quarter for 2025, with a 6.9% year-over-year growth in consolidated system-wide sales, driven by significant contributions from Tim Hortons and international operations. The company rema...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.