tiprankstipranks
Trending News
More News >
MTY Food Group (TSE:MTY)
TSX:MTY
Advertisement

MTY Food Group (MTY) AI Stock Analysis

Compare
205 Followers

Top Page

TSE:MTY

MTY Food Group

(TSX:MTY)

Rating:63Neutral
Price Target:
C$42.00
▲(7.86% Upside)
MTY Food Group's overall stock score is primarily influenced by its strong financial performance and positive corporate events. However, bearish technical indicators and valuation concerns weigh down the score. The mixed sentiment from the earnings call, with growth in some areas but challenges in others, also impacts the overall assessment.

MTY Food Group (MTY) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

MTY Food Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionMTY Food Group Inc. is a Canadian multinational company that specializes in the franchising and operation of quick-service restaurants (QSR) and casual dining establishments. Founded in 1979, MTY has expanded its portfolio to include a diverse array of brands across various sectors, including Asian cuisine, Italian, and fast-food formats. The company operates and franchises numerous well-known brands, contributing to its presence in both Canadian and international markets.
How the Company Makes MoneyMTY Food Group primarily generates revenue through a combination of franchise fees, royalties, and direct sales from its company-operated locations. Franchise fees are charged to franchisees for the rights to use MTY's brand and operational systems, which typically include an initial franchise fee and ongoing royalty payments based on sales. Additionally, MTY earns revenue from the direct operation of its own restaurants, which contributes to its overall sales figures. The company also benefits from economies of scale through purchasing and supply chain efficiencies, allowing it to negotiate favorable terms with suppliers. Strategic partnerships with various food suppliers and service providers further bolster its revenue streams, while the continuous expansion of its brand portfolio through acquisitions helps to diversify income sources and increase market presence.

MTY Food Group Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jul 11, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 10, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reflected a mixed performance with positive growth in Canada, digital sales, and retail segments, while facing significant challenges in the U.S. market and corporate store performance. Strategic initiatives such as ERP implementation and debt reduction are positive, but the U.S. market conditions and corporate store challenges weigh heavily on overall sentiment.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Canadian Same-Store Sales Growth
Canadian same-store sales increased by 1.4%, reflecting broad-based strength across most of MTY's banners, especially those in the casual dining segment.
Digital Sales Expansion
Digital sales grew by 3% this quarter and now represent 21% of total system sales, with concentration in U.S. brands and plans to expand across the network.
Strong Retail Segment Growth
The retail segment grew by 9%, showing substantial growth potential and early success with several products and nascent listings outside Quebec.
Successful ERP Implementation in Canada
MTY completed its ERP implementation in Canada on time and on budget, marking a major milestone for the organization.
Franchising Segment Growth
Franchising segment delivered a growth of 3%, representing MTY's core business strength.
Debt Reduction and Cash Flow Generation
MTY reduced net debt by $32.7 million since November 2024 and continues to generate strong operating and free cash flows.
Negative Updates
U.S. Same-Store Sales Decline
Same-store sales in the U.S. declined by 3.8%, with broad-based softness across the U.S. portfolio due to cautious consumer behavior.
Corporate Store EBITDA Decline
Normalized adjusted EBITDA for the Corporate Stores segment decreased by $5.5 million, impacted by cautious consumers and prime cost pressures.
Net Store Reduction
MTY opened 76 locations and closed 77, resulting in a net decrease of 1 location for the quarter.
Price Pressures in the U.S.
MTY faced prime cost pressures in the U.S., prompting strategic price increases which may not lead to significant margin improvements.
Company Guidance
During MTY Food Group's 2025 second quarter earnings call, the company provided detailed guidance on its performance metrics and strategic initiatives. Canadian same-store sales increased by 1.4%, driven by strength in the casual dining segment, while U.S. same-store sales saw a 3.8% decline due to economic uncertainties affecting consumer behavior. The company's digital sales grew by 3%, now accounting for 21% of total system sales, primarily concentrated in U.S. brands. MTY opened 76 locations and closed 77, resulting in a net decrease of one location for the quarter, but reported a robust pipeline with 108 locations under construction. Normalized adjusted EBITDA fell by 5%, attributed entirely to the corporate store segment due to strategic decisions such as reclaiming 50 underperforming Papa Murphy's locations. The corporate segment's EBITDA margins settled at 9%, which the company considers healthy. The franchising segment saw a 3% growth, while the retail segment grew by 9%. MTY remained committed to a balanced capital allocation strategy, repurchasing nearly 300,000 shares and maintaining a net debt of $623.5 million. The company also highlighted the successful Canadian go-live of its ERP system, with a U.S. implementation planned in two phases later in 2025.

MTY Food Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary
MTY Food Group exhibits solid financial health with strong cash flows and operational efficiency, despite challenges in revenue growth and thin net margins. The balance sheet shows manageable leverage, but profitability metrics indicate room for improvement.
Income Statement
75
Positive
MTY Food Group demonstrates a strong gross profit margin of 36.7% and a net profit margin of 0.74% for TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), indicating operational efficiency but thin profitability. EBIT margin at 26.3% shows robust core earnings capability. However, revenue growth has been modest, with a slight increase in TTM compared to previous annual reports, suggesting limited top-line expansion.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
The company's debt-to-equity ratio of 1.49 indicates a moderate level of leverage, which is common in the restaurant industry but could pose risks if not managed well. Return on equity is relatively low at 1.05% for TTM, reflecting limited profitability. However, the equity ratio of 31.2% suggests a stable capital structure, providing some financial stability.
Cash Flow
80
Positive
MTY Food Group's cash flow performance is robust with a high operating cash flow to net income ratio of 24.34 for TTM, indicating strong cash generation relative to net earnings. Free cash flow growth has been consistent, reinforcing financial flexibility. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio of 21.48 suggests strong cash conversion, supporting strategic investments and debt servicing.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue1.17B1.16B1.17B716.52M551.90M511.12M
Gross Profit348.42M419.18M340.98M255.40M300.62M276.61M
EBITDA180.95M165.34M263.02M165.60M169.80M14.65M
Net Income38.62M24.17M104.08M74.82M85.64M-36.90M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets2.51B2.59B2.68B2.33B1.90B2.01B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments47.20M50.41M58.90M59.48M61.23M44.30M
Total Debt1.17B1.22B1.30B1.08B834.28M1.02B
Total Liabilities1.72B1.78B1.87B1.60B1.26B1.43B
Stockholders Equity794.20M801.84M811.41M723.41M647.64M581.75M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow186.47M177.08M152.42M130.14M132.54M128.03M
Operating Cash Flow209.03M204.81M184.59M142.80M139.30M133.65M
Investing Cash Flow-20.65M-23.54M-319.66M-258.42M7.20M-12.11M
Financing Cash Flow-188.72M-186.78M135.94M105.30M-129.58M-126.37M

MTY Food Group Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price38.94
Price Trends
50DMA
40.27
Negative
100DMA
41.14
Negative
200DMA
43.54
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.33
Negative
RSI
46.83
Neutral
STOCH
59.59
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:MTY, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 38.94 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 38.71, below the 50-day MA of 40.27, and below the 200-day MA of 43.54, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.33 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 46.83 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 59.59 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:MTY.

MTY Food Group Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
63
Neutral
$889.64M23.354.59%3.26%0.55%-59.39%
61
Neutral
$17.75B12.56-5.49%3.02%1.43%-14.12%
$394.02M17.6210.14%5.64%
45
Neutral
C$19.69M
-2.40%9.13%
C$29.00M6.84%
C$69.31K
46
Neutral
C$19.18M11.42%-16.73%-78.61%
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE:MTY
MTY Food Group
38.70
-3.79
-8.91%
PZRIF
Pizza Pizza Royalty
11.89
2.96
33.15%
TSE:ODD
Odd Burger Corporation
0.20
0.04
25.00%
TSE:AEG
Aegis Brands
0.34
-0.06
-15.00%
TSE:JIVA
PlantX Life Inc.
0.06
-0.53
-89.83%
TSE:FOOD
Goodfood Market Corp
0.20
-0.08
-28.57%

MTY Food Group Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
MTY Food Group Reports Strong Q2 2025 Earnings Amid Market Challenges
Positive
Jul 11, 2025

MTY Food Group reported a significant increase in net income for the second quarter of fiscal 2025, with net income attributable to owners rising to $57.3 million compared to $27.3 million in the previous year. Despite a slight decrease in cash flows from operating activities and a decrease in normalized adjusted EBITDA, the company saw a slight increase in system sales. The company is addressing challenges in its Corporate segment by exploring strategic options to enhance long-term profitability, while its Franchise and Retail segments performed better. The U.S. market faced macroeconomic pressures, but Canada showed strong performance, particularly in casual dining, highlighting the resilience of MTY’s brands.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:MTY) stock is a Hold with a C$51.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MTY Food Group stock, see the TSE:MTY Stock Forecast page.

Financial Disclosures
MTY Food Group to Discuss Q2 Results in Upcoming Conference Call
Neutral
Jul 3, 2025

MTY Food Group Inc. has announced it will hold a conference call to discuss its second quarter results on July 11, 2025. The call is open to analysts, investors, and interested parties, with options to join via phone or webcast. This announcement allows stakeholders to gain insights into the company’s financial performance and strategic direction for the upcoming period.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:MTY) stock is a Hold with a C$55.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MTY Food Group stock, see the TSE:MTY Stock Forecast page.

Stock BuybackBusiness Operations and Strategy
MTY Food Group Renews Share Buyback Program
Positive
Jul 2, 2025

MTY Food Group Inc. has announced the renewal of its normal course issuer bid, allowing the company to repurchase up to 1,142,068 common shares, which is about 5% of its outstanding shares, from July 3, 2025, to July 2, 2026. This strategic move is seen as a beneficial capital allocation strategy by MTY’s Board of Directors and senior management, potentially impacting the company’s market positioning and shareholder value positively.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:MTY) stock is a Hold with a C$55.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MTY Food Group stock, see the TSE:MTY Stock Forecast page.

Stock BuybackBusiness Operations and Strategy
MTY Food Group Renews Share Buyback Program
Positive
Jun 30, 2025

MTY Food Group Inc. announced the renewal of its normal course issuer bid, allowing the company to repurchase up to 1,196,513 common shares, approximately 5% of its outstanding shares, between July 3, 2024, and July 2, 2025. This strategic move is seen as a beneficial capital allocation strategy by MTY’s Board of Directors and senior management, reflecting their confidence in the company’s market position and future prospects.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:MTY) stock is a Buy with a C$54.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MTY Food Group stock, see the TSE:MTY Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 11, 2025