tiprankstipranks
Trending News
More News >
Orezone Gold (TSE:ORE)
TSX:ORE

Orezone Gold (ORE) AI Stock Analysis

Compare
124 Followers

Top Page

TSE:ORE

Orezone Gold

(TSX:ORE)

Select Model
Select Model
Select Model
Outperform 73 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:73Outperform
Price Target:
C$3.00
▲(20.00% Upside)
The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (growth, profitability, and low leverage) with a supportive valuation. Offsetting factors include weaker free cash flow dynamics and technically overextended momentum signals, while the earnings call outlook is constructive but tempered by higher cost guidance and execution/schedule risks.
Positive Factors
Profitability and Margins
Consistent high gross (43.3%) and net (19.8%) margins reflect operational efficiency and pricing power in gold mining. Durable profitability supports reinvestment, funds sustaining capex, and provides a cushion versus metal price swings, underpinning long-term project economics.
Balance Sheet Strength
A low debt-to-equity ratio (0.21) alongside a strong ROE (~24%) gives Orezone financial flexibility to fund development and absorb shocks. Prudent leverage reduces refinancing risk, enabling steady capex funding for expansions and opportunistic M&A without compromising solvency over the medium term.
Strategic Financing & Growth Funding
The $100M Franco-Nevada stream is a structural, non-dilutive financing that materially improves liquidity for acquisitions and project builds. A blue-chip streaming partner lowers funding risk, validates management's growth plan, and supports sustained production scale-up into new assets over coming years.
Negative Factors
Weak Free Cash Flow Generation
Despite strong accounting profits, negative free cash flow growth and a low FCF-to-net-income ratio indicate earnings are not converting into cash. This structural cash conversion gap forces reliance on external financing for capex and acquisitions, increasing funding cost and execution risk.
Rising Unit Costs
A material upward revision in AISC driven by higher government royalties and currency pressures signals structurally higher operating costs. Persistently elevated unit costs can compress margins at given gold prices and reduce the project's long-term cash margin and reinvestment capacity.
Execution & Schedule Risk for Stage 2
Unresolved WAF negotiations and prior weather-related access delays create tangible execution risk for Stage 2. Schedule slippage or constrained access can increase capex and defer production ramp, delaying the anticipated free-cash-flow inflection and reducing the project's long-term return profile.

Orezone Gold (ORE) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

Orezone Gold Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionOrezone Gold Corporation engages in the exploration and development of gold properties. Its flagship property is the 90%-owned Bomboré gold project comprising a block of contiguous permits covering an area of 15,029 ha located in Burkina Faso, West Africa. The company was incorporated in 2008 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.
How the Company Makes MoneyOrezone Gold generates revenue primarily through the exploration, development, and potential production of gold from its mining projects. The key revenue stream is anticipated to come from the sale of gold once the Bomboré Gold Project reaches commercial production. This will involve extracting gold ore, processing it at their facilities, and selling the refined gold on the open market. The company may also engage in partnerships with other mining firms or enter joint ventures to enhance its operational capabilities and reduce financial risk. Additionally, Orezone may benefit from favorable gold prices, which can significantly impact its earnings. The company's strategic focus on optimizing production efficiency and managing costs will also contribute to its profitability.

Orezone Gold Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Nov 12, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Mar 20, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call highlighted strong financial performance and confidence in meeting production targets, with successful project expansions and a positive outlook for future growth. However, there were challenges with increased costs and operational delays due to weather, as well as uncertainties around the Stage 2 schedule.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
On Track to Meet 2025 Gold Production Guidance
Gold production for Q3 was 23,371 ounces, on track to meet the 2025 guidance of 115,000 to 130,000 ounces.
Strong Financial Position
The company reported a very strong financial position with cash and bullion at the end of the quarter at $104.2 million and undrawn senior debt of $11.1 million.
Hard Rock Expansion on Schedule and Under Budget
The hard rock expansion is on schedule and slightly under budget, with first gold expected in early December.
Improved Grid Utilization
Grid utilization improved to 88% in Q3, a significant improvement from 50% in Q2, helping to reduce processing costs.
Positive Outlook for 2026
Q1 2026 is expected to be a major free cash flow inflection point with production expected to increase approximately 45% with the start-up of Phase 1 hard rock.
Stage 1 Hard Rock Expansion Complete
Stage 1 major CapEx is now essentially complete, with production anticipated to reach 170,000 to 185,000 ounces by 2026.
Negative Updates
Lower-than-Planned Gold Production
Q3 gold production was lower than planned due to a delayed export and sale of a quarter-end gold shipment into early October.
Increased All-In Sustaining Costs
All-in sustaining costs guidance revised to $1,700 to $1,800 per ounce from the original $1,400 to $1,500, impacted by higher government royalties and a stronger XOF currency.
Operational Delays Due to Weather
Longer-than-average rainfall delayed access to higher-grade zones, impacting feed grades to the mill.
Potential Schedule Impact for Stage 2
Ongoing WAF negotiations may affect the schedule for Stage 2, with no resolution yet in sight.
Company Guidance
During the Orezone Third Quarter 2025 Results Webcast and Conference Call, the company provided detailed guidance and performance metrics. Orezone reported gold production of 23,371 ounces for the third quarter, despite challenges posed by weather events impacting operations. The company is on track to meet its 2025 guidance of 115,000 to 130,000 ounces of gold production. Gold sales for the quarter were 20,350 ounces at an average realized price of $3,375 per ounce, generating $68.9 million in revenue. All-in sustaining costs were higher than anticipated at $1,958 per ounce, influenced by external factors such as government royalties and foreign exchange impacts. Orezone's financial position remains robust, with cash and bullion totaling $104.2 million and undrawn senior debt of $11.1 million at the end of Q3. The company has revised its all-in sustaining cost guidance to $1,700 to $1,800, up from the previous $1,400 to $1,500 range. Looking forward, Orezone anticipates a significant increase in production in 2026, with expectations of 170,000 to 185,000 ounces due to the transition to hard rock mining, which will also reduce production volatility caused by seasonal weather patterns.

Orezone Gold Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Strong income statement performance (revenue growth and solid margins) and a healthy balance sheet with low leverage and strong ROE are partly offset by weaker cash flow quality, including negative free cash flow growth and a low free cash flow to net income ratio.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
Orezone Gold has shown strong revenue growth, with a notable increase in total revenue over the TTM period. The company maintains solid profitability metrics, with a gross profit margin of 43.28% and a net profit margin of 19.83% in the TTM. EBIT and EBITDA margins are also robust, indicating efficient operations. The consistent improvement in revenue growth rate and margins over the years highlights a positive trajectory in financial performance.
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
The balance sheet reflects a healthy financial position with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.21 in the TTM, indicating prudent leverage management. Return on equity is strong at 23.98%, showcasing effective use of equity capital. The equity ratio is stable, suggesting a solid asset base. However, the historical high leverage in earlier years poses a potential risk if not managed carefully.
Cash Flow
65
Positive
Cash flow analysis reveals challenges, with a significant negative free cash flow growth rate in the TTM. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is reasonable, but the free cash flow to net income ratio is low, indicating potential liquidity constraints. The company needs to focus on improving free cash flow generation to support future growth and stability.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue338.01M283.52M271.49M43.43M0.000.00
Gross Profit150.28M117.71M126.85M16.66M-258.00K0.00
EBITDA156.69M126.53M111.50M6.40M-8.50M-18.57M
Net Income67.41M55.71M43.15M930.00K-18.60M-17.66M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets598.50M448.58M320.08M252.28M140.50M12.99M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments85.33M74.02M19.48M9.16M36.08M8.87M
Total Debt77.38M81.06M93.40M122.87M46.41M167.63K
Total Liabilities221.49M184.57M173.72M181.95M86.62M3.30M
Stockholders Equity372.26M257.78M148.87M79.12M63.98M19.70M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-44.40M10.69M35.40M-99.47M-82.87M-17.79M
Operating Cash Flow74.90M57.70M79.95M6.58M-5.94M-17.33M
Investing Cash Flow-117.74M-45.97M-43.78M-105.98M-76.75M-286.97K
Financing Cash Flow60.27M45.07M-25.38M74.03M108.49M14.89M

Orezone Gold Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price2.50
Price Trends
50DMA
1.91
Positive
100DMA
1.66
Positive
200DMA
1.42
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.25
Negative
RSI
60.21
Neutral
STOCH
67.13
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:ORE, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 2.5 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.30, above the 50-day MA of 1.91, and above the 200-day MA of 1.42, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.25 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 60.21 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 67.13 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:ORE.

Orezone Gold Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
83
Outperform
C$1.04B4.5568.37%2.78%92.67%207.16%
73
Outperform
C$1.50B12.9522.92%34.05%80.47%
61
Neutral
$10.43B7.12-0.05%2.87%2.86%-36.73%
59
Neutral
C$930.05M-14.54-20.37%114.30%-2606.59%
53
Neutral
C$1.35B-14.98-458.89%-66.50%
52
Neutral
C$1.48B-12.70-25.39%29.47%1.53%
47
Neutral
C$1.10B-65.50-76.61%-111.48%
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE:ORE
Orezone Gold
2.50
1.77
242.47%
TSE:GAU
Galiano Gold
3.58
1.93
116.97%
TSE:OMG
Omai Gold Mines
1.69
1.32
356.76%
TSE:ATX
ATEX Resources Inc
3.90
1.98
103.13%
TSE:RBX
Robex Resources
5.87
3.52
149.79%
TSE:THX
Thor Explorations
1.56
1.22
362.91%

Orezone Gold Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
Orezone Gold Buys Casa Berardi Mine in Transformational Canada Expansion
Positive
Jan 26, 2026

Orezone Gold has agreed to acquire Hecla Quebec Inc., including 100% of the Casa Berardi gold mine and associated exploration properties in Quebec, in a deal valued at $352 million in upfront and deferred consideration plus up to $241 million in contingent payments. The transaction, financed through a mix of cash, Orezone shares and a structured consideration package with financial sponsorship from Franco-Nevada, transforms Orezone into a diversified, multi-asset gold producer by adding a long-life, cash-generating operation in a Tier 1 jurisdiction with 1.3 million ounces of proven and probable reserves and significant exploration potential along a 37 km mineralized corridor. Management positions the acquisition as accretive on key operating and financial metrics, enhancing production scale, free cash flow and capital markets profile while bringing Hecla in as a major shareholder and integrating Casa Berardi’s workforce, with implications for sustained growth and value creation for shareholders and regional stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:ORE) stock is a Buy with a C$3.75 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Orezone Gold stock, see the TSE:ORE Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyProduct-Related Announcements
Orezone Gold Achieves First Gold Pour from Bomboré Expansion
Positive
Dec 16, 2025

Orezone Gold Corporation has successfully completed the first gold pour from its new 2.5Mtpa hard rock expansion at the Bomboré Gold Mine. This marks a significant milestone, with commercial production expected in early Q1-2026, potentially increasing overall gold production by 45% to between 170,000 and 185,000 ounces in 2026. The expansion is anticipated to enhance cash flow and strengthen Orezone’s market position amid high gold prices.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ORE) stock is a Buy with a A$2.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Orezone Gold Corporation Registered Shs stock, see the AU:ORE Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyProduct-Related Announcements
Orezone Gold Advances Bomboré Mine with High-Grade Drill Results and New Plant Commissioning
Positive
Dec 3, 2025

Orezone Gold Corporation has reported successful high-grade drill results from the P17 Zone at its Bomboré Gold Mine, indicating strong mineralization continuity. The company is advancing the commissioning of its new hard rock plant, with first gold production expected soon, marking a significant production increase and cash flow milestone.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ORE) stock is a Buy with a A$3.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Orezone Gold Corporation Registered Shs stock, see the AU:ORE Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Orezone Gold Reports Robust Q3 2025 Results and Promising Outlook
Positive
Nov 12, 2025

Orezone Gold Corporation reported its third-quarter 2025 financial results, highlighting a gold production of 23,371 ounces and revenue of $68.9 million. The company maintained strong liquidity with $115.3 million available, and its Stage 1 hard rock expansion is on track to increase production significantly in 2026. The commencement of hard rock processing is expected to enhance production in the fourth quarter, positioning Orezone for a promising year ahead amid favorable gold prices.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:ORE) stock is a Buy with a C$1.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Orezone Gold stock, see the TSE:ORE Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Orezone Gold to Announce Q3 2025 Results Amid Expansion Progress
Positive
Nov 4, 2025

Orezone Gold Corporation announced it will release its third quarter 2025 financial results on November 12, 2025, followed by a conference call and webcast. The completion of stage 1 hard rock expansion at the Bomboré Gold Mine is expected to significantly boost production levels, with further expansion plans underway to enhance output.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ORE) stock is a Buy with a A$3.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Orezone Gold Corporation Registered Shs stock, see the AU:ORE Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jan 21, 2026