Mandalay Resources (MND) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$439.23M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 113.11K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 5.5
• Beta (1Y): 1.55
• Revenue Growth: 41.30%
• EPS Growth: 340.97%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 460
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 71
• Industry: Gold
• EPS (TTM): 0.29
• Shares Outstanding: 94,662,506
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 112,983
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 113,111
• PEG Ratio: 0.04
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.60
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -2.37
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.25
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.12
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 0.98
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 0.27
• 1Y Price Target: C$6.25
• Price Target Upside: 34.70% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2

• Rating: 77 Outperform
• Price Target: C$5.50 ▲(18.53%Upside)

The overall stock score is driven by strong financial performance and favorable corporate developments, notably the strategic merger with Alkane Resources. While technical indicators suggest bearish momentum, the stock's attractive valuation and the merger's potential benefits provide a positive outlook.

Positive Factors

Earnings Performance

Mandalay Resources reported earnings that beat expectations with adjusted EPS of $0.30/sh, versus an estimate of US$0.21/sh.

Grade Optimization

Grade optimization efforts at Björkdal and the development of the Youle lode at Costerfield are expected to act as positive catalysts for the stock.

Index Inclusion

The combined company is expected to benefit from a primary ASX listing valuation re-rate driven by GDXJ and potential ASX 300 index inclusion.

Negative Factors

Cost Increases

Updated unit and capital costs at both Costerfield and Björkdal have increased, impacting the company's financial outlook negatively.

Production Forecast

The updated mine plan at Björkdal has resulted in lower gold production forecasts and delayed restart of the open pit, negatively affecting the company's NAV.

Valuation Concerns

Mandalay Shareholders will receive 7.875 ordinary shares of Alkane for each ordinary share of MND, implying a C$5.56 value for each share of MND, which is well below the target price of C$7.00.

Mandalay Resources Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Mandalay Resources Corporation, a natural resource company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, extraction, processing, and reclamation of mineral properties. It explores for gold, silver, and antimony deposits. The company primarily holds 100% interests in the Costerfield gold-antimony mine located in Central Victoria, Australia; and the Björkdal gold mine located in Västerbotten County in northern Sweden. The company was incorporated in 1997 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.

How the Company Makes Money

Mandalay Resources generates revenue through the extraction and sale of precious and base metals, including gold, silver, and antimony. The company's key revenue streams include the sale of these mined metals to various customers in the global market. Revenue is primarily derived from its operational mines: the Costerfield gold-antimony mine in Australia, and the Björkdal gold mine in Sweden. The company benefits from fluctuations in metal prices, which can significantly impact its earnings. Mandalay Resources also engages in ongoing exploration and development to expand its reserves and production capacity, thereby ensuring future revenue generation. Strategic partnerships with local governments and adherence to regulatory standards play a crucial role in its ability to operate efficiently and sustainably.

Mandalay Resources Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Mandalay Resources demonstrates a strong financial profile with robust revenue growth, high net and gross profit margins, low leverage, and effective cash flow management. The stability reflected in these metrics positions the company well for future growth.

Income Statement

Mandalay Resources demonstrates strong financial performance with robust revenue growth of 9.37% in TTM, supported by a healthy net profit margin of 21.54% and a gross profit margin of 43.16%. EBIT and EBITDA margins also reflect solid operational efficiency, indicating effective cost management.

Balance Sheet

The company maintains a strong balance sheet with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.02, suggesting conservative leverage. The equity ratio of 68.89% indicates financial stability and a strong asset base. Return on equity of 22.08% highlights effective utilization of shareholder funds.

Cash Flow

Mandalay Resources exhibits stable cash flow management with an impressive operating cash flow to net income ratio of 1.96 in TTM, indicating strong cash conversion. However, the free cash flow growth rate shows a slight decline, which warrants attention.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	263.21M	240.66M	173.34M	191.70M	229.40M	178.97M
Gross Profit	113.58M	94.00M	34.21M	62.92M	82.16M	64.34M
EBITDA	120.54M	107.90M	49.87M	77.08M	119.04M	61.69M
Net Income	56.70M	47.76M	7.86M	23.51M	54.88M	9.31M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	372.68M	329.58M	295.25M	282.22M	317.84M	301.28M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	88.26M	76.37M	28.78M	41.13M	34.14M	34.21M
Total Debt	5.31M	4.65M	22.96M	24.02M	49.79M	63.95M
Total Liabilities	115.94M	100.31M	98.32M	98.07M	141.16M	165.50M
Stockholders Equity	256.73M	229.27M	196.93M	184.15M	176.69M	135.78M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	63.07M	67.89M	1.55M	40.37M	13.92M	16.70M
Operating Cash Flow	111.19M	112.72M	43.29M	80.04M	62.03M	61.66M
Investing Cash Flow	-48.26M	-44.07M	-44.61M	-36.99M	-43.84M	-34.74M
Financing Cash Flow	-21.21M	-17.52M	-10.25M	-34.70M	-21.51M	-18.30M

Mandalay Resources Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 4.64
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:MND, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 4.64 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.91, below the 50-day MA of 5.02, and above the 200-day MA of 4.43, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.12 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 36.97 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 32.14 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:MND.

Mandalay Resources Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
MND	77 Outperform	C$439.23M	5.49	25.03%	―	41.30%	340.97%
Sector *	43 Neutral	AU$1.42B	-6.27	-40.74%	4.05%	-3.45%	-41.76%
GAU		$348.76M	64.86	-7.13%	―	―	―
RBX	54 Neutral	C$624.64M	―	-5.78%	―	19.84%	84.50%
ASE	52 Neutral	C$816.86M	―	-2232.66%	―	13.51%	3.80%
RIO	50 Neutral	C$688.66M	―	-0.28%	―	―	83.41%
LUM	48 Neutral	$527.12M	―	105.38%	―	―	-97.12%

Mandalay Resources Corporate Events

Mandalay Resources Announces Shareholder Meeting for Acquisition Approval

Mandalay Resources Corporation has announced the mailing of a management information circular for a special meeting of shareholders to approve a plan of arrangement. This arrangement involves Alkane Resources Limited acquiring all issued and outstanding common shares of Mandalay. The board of directors has unanimously recommended the arrangement, considering it in the best interests of the company and fair to shareholders. The arrangement is anticipated to be completed on August 5, 2025, pending necessary approvals.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:MND) stock is a Buy with a C$3.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mandalay Resources stock, see the TSE:MND Stock Forecast page.

Mandalay Resources Secures Key Approvals for Alkane Merger

Mandalay Resources has received approval from the Australian Foreign Investment Review Board for its proposed merger with Alkane Resources, marking a significant step forward in the transaction. The merger, which aims to create a diversified mid-tier gold and antimony producer, has been unanimously approved by Mandalay’s board and is expected to close in early August 2025, pending shareholder approval and other customary conditions.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:MND) stock is a Buy with a C$3.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mandalay Resources stock, see the TSE:MND Stock Forecast page.

Mandalay Resources Gains Swedish Approval for Merger with Alkane

Mandalay Resources has received Swedish regulatory approval for its proposed merger with Alkane Resources, allowing the transaction to proceed under Swedish law. The merger still requires approval from the Supreme Court of British Columbia, regulatory bodies, and shareholders from both companies, with meetings expected in late July 2025.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:MND) stock is a Buy with a C$3.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mandalay Resources stock, see the TSE:MND Stock Forecast page.

Mandalay Resources Reports Strong Q1 2025 Financial Performance

Mandalay Resources reported a significant financial upturn in Q1 2025, with a 41% increase in revenue to $78.1 million and a 152% rise in net income to $14.8 million compared to the previous year. The company strengthened its balance sheet with $88.3 million in cash and no debt, driven by favorable metal prices and strategic investments in its operations. This financial performance highlights Mandalay’s solid operational capabilities and positions the company for continued growth, with expectations of stronger production and reduced capital expenditure in the latter half of the year.

Mandalay Resources to Announce Q1 2025 Financial Results

Mandalay Resources announced the release of its first quarter 2025 financial results, scheduled for May 7, 2025, followed by a conference call on May 8, 2025. This announcement is part of Mandalay’s ongoing efforts to enhance transparency and communication with investors and analysts, reflecting its commitment to shareholder value through profitable operations and strategic growth initiatives.

Alkane and Mandalay Merge to Form Leading Gold and Antimony Producer

Alkane Resources Limited and Mandalay Resources Corporation have announced a merger of equals to form a larger gold and antimony producer. This strategic merger is expected to enhance production capabilities with a projected increase in gold-equivalent production to over 180,000 ounces by 2026. The combined entity will benefit from improved capital market positioning, increased trading liquidity, and a robust balance sheet, enabling further growth and exploration opportunities. The merger aims to create a diversified platform with a shared vision for continued growth, benefiting shareholders through expanded operations and market presence.

Mandalay Resources Reports Strong Q1 2025 Production, Aligns with Annual Guidance

Mandalay Resources reported solid first-quarter production results for 2025, with a total of 22,342 gold equivalent ounces produced, aligning with their annual guidance. The company anticipates increased production in the latter half of the year, supported by ongoing optimization and capital investment projects aimed at enhancing mining flexibility and operational efficiency at both Costerfield and Björkdal sites.