ONEX Corporation (ONEX) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$7.94B
• Dividend Yield: 0.36%
• Average Volume (3M): 81.86K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 8.1
• Beta (1Y): 0.78
• Revenue Growth: 2.46%
• EPS Growth: -27.48%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 373
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Asset Management
• EPS (TTM): 3.61
• Shares Outstanding: 76,186,485
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 79,779
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 81,864
• PEG Ratio: 0.07
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.65
• Price to Sales (P/S): 19.37
• P/FCF Ratio: 8.46
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: C$133.00
• Price Target Upside: 27.81% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 65 Neutral
• Price Target: C$113.00 ▲(8.59% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/26/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/26/26

The score is driven primarily by solid underlying financial strength (profitability and balance sheet) and a clearly attractive valuation (low P/E), supported by a constructive earnings call outlook and strategic progress. These are partially offset by weak technical momentum and the company’s historically volatile revenue and cash-flow profile.

Positive Factors

Strategic Convex Acquisition & AIG Partnership

Acquiring Convex and partnering with AIG creates a durable underwriting and insurance-platform earnings stream. Convex's scale, aligned management equity and demonstrated 2025 profitability provide recurring underwriting income and diversification of Onex’s fee and investment mix, strengthening long-term cash generation and strategic optionality.

Growing Fee-Generating AUM and Credit Platform

A 24% AUM expansion to ~$44B indicates durable fee revenue runway. Higher fee-bearing scale plus active CLO issuance expands recurring management fees, reduces reliance on volatile fair-value gains, and supports sustainable FRE growth as platforms mature and fee economics compound over multiple years.

Improved Capital Structure and Liquidity

Material deleveraging and a larger equity cushion improve financial flexibility for follow-on investments, support distributions or opportunistic M&A, and reduce refinancing risk. Improved balance-sheet health makes Onex better positioned to weather investment volatility and execute multi-year value creation strategies.

Negative Factors

Volatile Revenue and Cash Flow

Large swings in revenue and intermittent negative cash flow undermine predictability of earnings and fee conversion. This cyclicality complicates capital allocation, fund-raising cadence and FRE stability, meaning investors must rely on realized exits and portfolio timing rather than steady operating cash generation over the near-to-medium term.

Credit Mark-to-Market Sensitivity (CLOs)

The credit platform’s NAV and fee realization are sensitive to loan spread moves and CLO equity marks. Spread compression can depress reported earnings and NAV marks for 1–2 years until liability refinancing, creating episodic mark-to-market losses that can mute FRE and investment returns despite long-term CLO economics.

P&C Pricing Headwinds for Convex

A structural decline in P&C pricing pressures underwriting margins at Convex, requiring sustained operating leverage, reserve discipline or investment returns to offset. If pricing weakness persists, it could compress insurance earnings and slow the pace at which Convex contributes stable, long-term FRE and net income to Onex.

ONEX Corporation Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Onex Corporation is a private equity firm specializing in acquisitions and platform acquisitions. The firm makes investments in buyouts, large- middle market, large-cap, mid-cap, and small-cap market and distressed companies. It also invests in recapitalization, growth capital, corporate carve-outs of subsidiaries and mission-critical supply divisions from multinational corporations, operational restructurings of undervalued businesses, and builds up. The firm seeks to invest in technology, electronics manufacturing services, industrial, aerospace, healthcare, retail, restaurants, industrials products, customer care services, metal services, building products, entertainment, gaming, cabinetry products, commercial vehicles, commercial and investment banking, financial services, commercial and multi-unit residential real estate. It invests in global businesses headquartered in North America, including United States and Canada, or Europe. The firm seeks to invest between $125 million and $1 billion in companies that have minimum revenues of $300 million. It does not consider size if the company is in an industry in which the firm already has presence. The firm seeks to make direct as well as co-investments through managed private equity, real estate and credit funds. It seeks to acquire a control position in its portfolio companies. Onex Corporation was founded in 1984 and is based in Toronto, Canada with additional offices in New York, New York; Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey; Boston, Massachusetts and London, United Kingdom.

How the Company Makes Money

ONEX generates revenue primarily through its investment activities, which include management fees and performance fees from its private equity funds and credit funds. The company earns management fees based on the committed capital of its funds, providing a steady income stream. Performance fees, or carried interest, are contingent on the funds' performance, allowing ONEX to earn additional revenue when investments exceed certain return thresholds. The firm also benefits from capital appreciation of its portfolio companies, which enhances the value of its own investments. Significant partnerships with institutional investors and strategic alliances further contribute to its earnings by expanding its investment capacity and market reach.

ONEX Corporation Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong profitability and a well-capitalized balance sheet with meaningful deleveraging in 2025 support the score, but large volatility in revenue and uneven cash flows (including a negative year in 2022 and a sharp revenue decline in 2025) reduce predictability.

Income Statement

Profitability is strong on paper, with very high gross and bottom-line margins across most years and a sharp step-up in 2025 net income versus 2024. However, revenue is highly volatile: after strong growth in 2021 and 2023, revenue contracted in 2022 and then fell sharply again in 2025. Overall, earnings power looks solid but less dependable due to large swings in top-line results.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows solid capitalization with large equity relative to assets and generally healthy returns on equity. Leverage improved materially in 2025, with debt dropping to near-zero versus prior years where debt-to-equity was moderate. The main watch-out is the year-to-year volatility in leverage and profitability, which suggests capital structure and results can shift meaningfully depending on the environment and investment outcomes.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is uneven but improved meaningfully in the latest period: operating cash flow and free cash flow were strong in 2025 and improved versus 2024, following a negative cash flow year in 2022. In the more stable years (2020–2024), free cash flow generally tracked net income reasonably well, but the presence of negative operating/free cash flow in 2022 highlights sensitivity to working-capital and investment-related timing. Overall cash flow quality is decent, but not consistently steady.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	293.04M	647.00M	1.12B	437.00M	2.03B
Gross Profit	221.82M	431.00M	865.00M	163.00M	1.74B
EBITDA	653.24M	331.00M	569.00M	302.00M	1.47B
Net Income	627.80M	303.00M	529.00M	235.00M	1.41B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	11.24B	13.96B	12.90B	12.16B	12.89B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.33B	929.00M	265.00M	161.00M	790.00M
Total Debt	32.94M	5.20B	3.94B	3.56B	3.83B
Total Liabilities	2.47B	5.54B	4.33B	3.91B	4.51B
Stockholders Equity	8.77B	8.42B	8.56B	8.25B	8.37B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	671.00M	174.00M	60.00M	-392.00M	361.00M
Operating Cash Flow	671.00M	174.00M	68.00M	-384.00M	361.00M
Investing Cash Flow	150.00M	38.00M	55.00M	234.00M	-55.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-421.00M	453.00M	30.00M	-282.00M	-465.00M

ONEX Corporation Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 104.06
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:ONEX, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 104.06 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 106.15, below the 50-day MA of 111.27, and below the 200-day MA of 112.75, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -2.45 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 40.95 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 37.17 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:ONEX.

ONEX Corporation Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
IGM	75 Outperform	C$15.84B	14.58	12.37%	3.59%	-1.02%	-5.65%
CVG	71 Outperform	C$974.76M	13.59	0.32%	0.14%	-44.78%	-95.84%
GCG	69 Neutral	C$1.66B	8.81	13.82%	2.29%	58.88%	82.03%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
BAM	67 Neutral	C$105.56B	29.99	41.10%	3.37%	597.75%	50.43%
ONEX	65 Neutral	C$7.94B	8.12	5.15%	0.36%	2.46%	-27.48%
BBUC	47 Neutral	C$4.61B	-3.13	―	0.71%	-0.16%	-2945.66%

ONEX Corporation Corporate Events

Onex Profits Surge as Convex Deal Caps Year of Strong Growth

Onex Corporation reported a sharp rise in profitability for 2025, with net earnings climbing to $617 million and diluted earnings per share more than doubling to $8.88, driven by stronger performance in both its investing and asset management segments. The firm raised over $8 billion of new capital across its private equity and credit platforms, signaling growing investor appetite and reinforcing the profitability trajectory of its asset management business.

The company closed its $7 billion acquisition of Convex Group in early February 2026, cementing a new strategic relationship with co-investor AIG, which holds a significant minority stake. Convex delivered record 2025 results, including $711 million in net income, robust premium growth and strong returns on tangible equity, positioning Onex to benefit from a high-growth, profitable specialty insurance platform and enhancing its long-term growth momentum heading into 2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:ONEX) stock is a Hold with a C$139.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ONEX Corporation stock, see the TSE:ONEX Stock Forecast page.

Onex Closes US$7 Billion Convex Deal and Deepens Strategic Ties With AIG

Onex Corporation has completed its previously announced US$7 billion acquisition of Convex Group Limited, a specialty property and casualty insurance and reinsurance company, marking Convex as a new core platform alongside its private equity and credit businesses. Onex now owns about 63% of Convex, with American International Group holding roughly 35% and Convex management the remainder, and expects the business to deliver meaningful recurring net income and free cash flow while supporting a shift toward a more capital-light asset management model. As part of the transaction, AIG has taken a 9.9% stake in Onex via a subscription for 7.5 million subordinate voting shares and committed US$2 billion to Onex’s private equity and credit strategies over the next three years, deepening a strategic partnership that could enhance Onex’s earnings growth, improve transparency for investors, and reinforce its positioning in specialty insurance and alternative asset management markets.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:ONEX) stock is a Hold with a C$139.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ONEX Corporation stock, see the TSE:ONEX Stock Forecast page.

Onex Completes Exit from Ryan Specialty with Strong Returns

Onex Corporation has completed the sale of its remaining shares in Ryan Specialty Holdings, marking its full exit from the investment. The sale generated $226 million in proceeds, contributing to a total realization of $1.2 billion from the investment, which represents a 3.8x Multiple of Capital and an IRR of 49%. This strategic move underscores Onex’s successful investment strategy and its ability to generate significant returns for its stakeholders. The exit also coincides with the retirement of Onex’s CEO, Bobby Le Blanc, from Ryan Specialty’s Board, highlighting a transition in leadership as Ryan Specialty continues to solidify its position as a leader in specialty insurance solutions.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:ONEX) stock is a Buy with a C$134.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ONEX Corporation stock, see the TSE:ONEX Stock Forecast page.

Onex Partners Completes Strategic Investment in OneDigital

Onex Partners announced the completion of a strategic investment in OneDigital by Stone Point Capital and CPP Investments, valuing OneDigital at over $7 billion. This investment supports OneDigital’s growth through organic expansion and strategic acquisitions, highlighting confidence in its leadership and operating model. Onex Partners remains a significant minority owner, with total proceeds from the transaction amounting to approximately $1.1 billion for Onex Partners V and $235 million for Onex Corporation. The investment underscores OneDigital’s sustained growth across its core verticals, including employee benefits, HR, retirement, wealth management, and more.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:ONEX) stock is a Hold with a C$141.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ONEX Corporation stock, see the TSE:ONEX Stock Forecast page.