ONEX Corporation (TSE:ONEX)
TSX:ONEX
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ONEX Corporation
(TSX:ONEX)
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Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
C$113.00
â–²(13.80% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/26/26
The score is driven primarily by solid underlying financial strength (profitability and balance sheet) and a clearly attractive valuation (low P/E), supported by a constructive earnings call outlook and strategic progress. These are partially offset by weak technical momentum and the company’s historically volatile revenue and cash-flow profile.
Positive Factors
Strategic Convex Acquisition & AIG Partnership
Acquiring Convex and partnering with AIG creates a durable underwriting and insurance-platform earnings stream. Convex's scale, aligned management equity and demonstrated 2025 profitability provide recurring underwriting income and diversification of Onex’s fee and investment mix, strengthening long-term cash generation and strategic optionality.
Negative Factors
Volatile Revenue and Cash Flow
Large swings in revenue and intermittent negative cash flow undermine predictability of earnings and fee conversion. This cyclicality complicates capital allocation, fund-raising cadence and FRE stability, meaning investors must rely on realized exits and portfolio timing rather than steady operating cash generation over the near-to-medium term.
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Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strategic Convex Acquisition & AIG Partnership
Acquiring Convex and partnering with AIG creates a durable underwriting and insurance-platform earnings stream. Convex's scale, aligned management equity and demonstrated 2025 profitability provide recurring underwriting income and diversification of Onex’s fee and investment mix, strengthening long-term cash generation and strategic optionality.
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ONEX Corporation (ONEX) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$7.71B
Dividend Yield0.36%
Average Volume (3M)81.86K
Price to Earnings (P/E)9.0
Beta (1Y)0.70
Revenue Growth2.46%
EPS Growth-27.48%
CountryCA
Employees373
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryAsset Management
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)3.61
Shares Outstanding76,186,485
10 Day Avg. Volume79,779
30 Day Avg. Volume81,864
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.07
Price to Book (P/B)0.65
Price to Sales (P/S)19.37
P/FCF Ratio8.46
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$133.00Price Target Upside33.94% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
ONEX Corporation Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Onex Corporation is a private equity firm specializing in acquisitions and platform acquisitions. The firm makes investments in buyouts, large- middle market, large-cap, mid-cap, and small-cap market and distressed companies. It also invests in re...
How the Company Makes Money
ONEX generates revenue primarily through its investment activities, which include management fees and performance fees from its private equity funds and credit funds. The company earns management fees based on the committed capital of its funds, p...
ONEX Corporation Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 20, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 15, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized substantial strategic progress and strong operating results — notably the Convex acquisition, robust Convex financial performance (net income +25% vs Q3 LTM; +40% vs 2024), expansion of fee-generating AUM (+24% YoY), meaningful private equity realizations ($8B) and credit platform strength (28 CLOs, run-rate FRE $60M). Near-term headwinds include CLO mark-to-market impacts from spread compression, a modest firm-wide FRE loss for the quarter and timing/recognition delays for certain fee streams and MACV economics. Management presented conservative assumptions (excludes Convex contributions to FRE) and reiterated liquidity and capital allocation plans. Overall, positive operational momentum and high-impact strategic moves outweigh the manageable near-term financial and market challenges.Positive Updates
Convex Acquisition and Strategic Partnership
Completed acquisition of Convex valued at $7.0 billion with Onex and AIG owning ~63% and ~35% respectively; Convex management rolled ~$500 million of equity and accrued incentives, signaling strong alignment and confidence.
Negative Updates
Firm-wide FRE Near-Term Losses
Asset management reported quarterly firm-wide FRE loss of $4 million and a loss of $3 million for the year (Q4 Asset Management earnings $49 million but only $2 million of FRE from PE and credit), indicating fee income has not yet fully absorbed platform costs.
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Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Convex Acquisition and Strategic Partnership
Completed acquisition of Convex valued at $7.0 billion with Onex and AIG owning ~63% and ~35% respectively; Convex management rolled ~$500 million of equity and accrued incentives, signaling strong alignment and confidence.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Onex guided 2026 firm‑wide fee‑related earnings (FRE) to the low‑to‑mid $20 million range and said it expects to exit 2026 with a run‑rate FRE more than twice the $17 million start‑of‑year run‑rate (i.e., >$34M, with management referencing a year‑end target around $35M); that outlook assumes only ~1/3 of AIG’s $2.0B commitment and no Convex allocations. Credit finished 2025 with run‑rate FRE of $60M, asset management ended Q4 with ~$44B of fee‑generating AUM (up 24% YoY) and Q4 asset management earnings of $49M (only $2M FRE from PE/credit), while firm‑wide FRE was a $4M loss in Q4 and a $3M loss for the year. Convex is expected to be a major earnings driver — 2025 net income $711M (ROE 20%), up 40% vs 2024 and 25% vs the Q3 LTM $566M figure, $5.9B gross premium written (+14% YoY), 89% combined ratio, tangible book value $3.8B — the $7B transaction leaves Onex and AIG with ~63%/35% ownership, Onex’s 63% share equates to ~$423M of Convex 2025 net income after pro‑forma interest, and management rolled ~$500M of equity/incentives. Balance‑sheet and liquidity guidance: Onex drew $700M on a NAV loan (vs $1.0B contemplated), retained ~ $400M cash/near‑cash, has $500M undrawn on the revolver (~$900M total liquidity), holds ~ $5B of PE investments with $735M unfunded commitments (only $330M in commitment period), and cited $8B of 2025 realizations that delivered >$800M to Onex (including OP distributions of $7.7B with $4.3B to co‑investors and ~ $310M MACV proceeds, bringing OP V DPI to 0.8x).ONEX Corporation Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 293.04M | 647.00M | 1.12B | 437.00M | 2.03B |
| Gross Profit | 221.82M | 431.00M | 865.00M | 163.00M | 1.74B |
| EBITDA | 653.24M | 331.00M | 569.00M | 302.00M | 1.47B |
| Net Income | 627.80M | 303.00M | 529.00M | 235.00M | 1.41B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 11.24B | 13.96B | 12.90B | 12.16B | 12.89B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.33B | 929.00M | 265.00M | 161.00M | 790.00M |
| Total Debt | 32.94M | 5.20B | 3.94B | 3.56B | 3.83B |
| Total Liabilities | 2.47B | 5.54B | 4.33B | 3.91B | 4.51B |
| Stockholders Equity | 8.77B | 8.42B | 8.56B | 8.25B | 8.37B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 671.00M | 174.00M | 60.00M | -392.00M | 361.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 671.00M | 174.00M | 68.00M | -384.00M | 361.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 150.00M | 38.00M | 55.00M | 234.00M | -55.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -421.00M | 453.00M | 30.00M | -282.00M | -465.00M |
ONEX Corporation Technical Analysis
Neutral
99.30
Price Trends
106.59
Negative
109.45
Negative
112.49
Negative
Market Momentum
-2.11
Negative
48.81
Neutral
77.34
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:ONEX, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 99.3 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 100.43, below the 50-day MA of 106.59, and below the 200-day MA of 112.49, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -2.11 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 48.81 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 77.34 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TSE:ONEX.
ONEX Corporation Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | C$99.06B | 33.39 | 41.10% | 3.37% | 597.75% | 50.43% | |
71 Outperform | C$15.24B | 13.28 | 12.37% | 3.59% | -1.02% | -5.65% | |
71 Outperform | C$990.97M | 2.39 | 5.72% | 0.14% | -44.78% | -95.84% | |
69 Neutral | C$1.67B | 5.53 | 13.66% | 2.29% | 58.88% | 82.03% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
65 Neutral | C$7.71B | 9.04 | 7.20% | 0.36% | 2.46% | -27.48% | |
47 Neutral | C$4.33B | -2.93 | 249.84% | 0.71% | -0.16% | -2945.66% |
* Financial Sector Average
TSE:ONEX
ONEX Corporation
101.10
3.90
4.01%
TSE:IGM
IGM Financial
65.10
21.89
50.65%
TSE:CVG
Clairvest
72.44
3.45
4.99%
TSE:GCG
Guardian Capital
67.97
27.95
69.85%
TSE:BBUC
Brookfield Business Corp. Class A
45.63
6.17
15.64%
TSE:BAM
Brookfield Asset Management Ltd. Class A
60.47
-9.30
-13.33%
ONEX Corporation Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions
Onex Profits Surge as Convex Deal Caps Year of Strong Growth
Positive
Feb 20, 2026
Onex Corporation reported a sharp rise in profitability for 2025, with net earnings climbing to $617 million and diluted earnings per share more than doubling to $8.88, driven by stronger performance in both its investing and asset management segm...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
Onex Closes US$7 Billion Convex Deal and Deepens Strategic Ties With AIG
Positive
Feb 7, 2026
Onex Corporation has completed its previously announced US$7 billion acquisition of Convex Group Limited, a specialty property and casualty insurance and reinsurance company, marking Convex as a new core platform alongside its private equity and c...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Onex Completes Exit from Ryan Specialty with Strong Returns
Positive
Dec 8, 2025
Onex Corporation has completed the sale of its remaining shares in Ryan Specialty Holdings, marking its full exit from the investment. The sale generated $226 million in proceeds, contributing to a total realization of $1.2 billion from the invest...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Onex Partners Completes Strategic Investment in OneDigital
Positive
Dec 4, 2025
Onex Partners announced the completion of a strategic investment in OneDigital by Stone Point Capital and CPP Investments, valuing OneDigital at over $7 billion. This investment supports OneDigital’s growth through organic expansion and stra...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.