NextSource Materials Inc (NEXT) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$94.30M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 56.43K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.03
• Revenue Growth: N/A
• EPS Growth: -156.65%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 118
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Industrial Materials
• EPS (TTM): -0.06
• Shares Outstanding: 184,911,100
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 53,058
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 56,426
• PEG Ratio: >-0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.55
• Price to Sales (P/S): 42.66
• P/FCF Ratio: -0.99
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 51 Neutral
• Price Target: C$0.50 ▲(22.68% Upside)

The score is held back primarily by weak fundamentals—negative gross profit, large losses, and sustained cash burn—despite strong revenue growth and only moderate leverage. Technicals are supportive with price above major moving averages and positive MACD, but overbought signals (high RSI/Stoch) temper the near-term setup. Valuation remains challenged due to losses (negative P/E) and no dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Strong TTM Revenue Growth

Sustained triple-digit-ish revenue acceleration signals improving market traction for graphite products and potential scaling benefits. Over 2-6 months this supports capacity utilization gains, stronger customer validation, and a clearer path to margin recovery if costs are controlled.

Balance Sheet Equity Base and Moderate Leverage

A tangible equity cushion and moderate leverage provide financial flexibility for development and enable the company to endure near-term losses while progressing projects. This reduces immediate refinancing pressure and supports multi-month project execution and funding optionality.

Tangible Project Execution: Anode Equipment Delivered

Receipt of long-lead anode processing equipment and FEED advancement indicate concrete execution toward a downstream anode business. This structural move can diversify revenue mix, capture higher value chain margins, and materially change long-term cash generation if FID and ramp proceed.

Negative Factors

Negative Profitability and Large Losses

Persistent gross losses and sizeable net deficits show the core mining/processing operations are not yet profitable. Over several months this undermines internal funding, requires external capital to sustain operations, and increases execution risk before unit economics are proven.

Weak Cash Generation

Ongoing negative operating and free cash flow indicates the business is consuming cash to fund operations and investment. Without durable positive cash conversion, the company will remain dependent on external financing, raising dilution or refinancing risk over the next 2-6 months.

Rising Debt and Negative Returns on Equity

Increasing leverage combined with deeply negative ROE elevates refinancing and solvency risk if losses persist. Over the medium term this can constrain strategic options, increase interest burden, and pressure capital structure, potentially forcing asset or equity raises.

NextSource Materials Inc Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

NextSource Materials Inc. (NEXT) is a Canadian-based mining company focused on the development and production of strategic minerals and materials. The company primarily operates in the mining and materials sector, with its core product being graphite, sourced from its Molo Graphite Project in Madagascar. NextSource is committed to becoming a leading supplier of high-quality graphite materials, which are crucial for various industrial applications including electric vehicles, energy storage, and electronics.

How the Company Makes Money

NextSource Materials Inc. generates revenue through the extraction and sale of graphite from its Molo Graphite Project. The company earns money by supplying high-purity graphite materials to industries that require them for manufacturing batteries, electric vehicles, and other technological applications. Its revenue model is heavily reliant on mining operations, processing facilities, and the sale of processed graphite. Strategic partnerships with manufacturers and suppliers in the battery and energy sectors also play a critical role in its revenue generation, as these partnerships help to secure long-term sales contracts and expand market reach.

NextSource Materials Inc Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Despite sharp TTM revenue growth (+81.1%), profitability and cash generation are very weak (negative gross profit, large net loss of -$35.7M, negative operating cash flow of -$26.7M and free cash flow of -$31.6M). Balance sheet flexibility is moderate (equity ~$47.1M; debt-to-equity ~0.51), but rising debt and negative returns (ROE ~-24.8%) elevate execution risk.

Income Statement

TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue increased sharply (+81.1%), but profitability is very weak: gross profit is negative and losses are large, with net income at -$35.7M and deeply negative margins. Annual results also show a multi-year pattern of operating losses, indicating the business is still in a heavy investment/scale-up phase with limited earnings visibility.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a meaningful equity base (TTM stockholders’ equity ~$47.1M) and moderate leverage (debt-to-equity ~0.51), which provides some financial flexibility. However, returns remain negative (TTM return on equity ~-24.8%), and total debt has risen materially versus prior years, increasing execution and refinancing risk if losses persist.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is weak: TTM operating cash flow is negative (-$26.7M) and free cash flow is also negative (-$31.6M), with free cash flow deteriorating versus the prior period (growth -3.12). While free cash flow is higher than net income in the period (reflecting non-cash charges), the company is still consuming significant cash to fund operations and investment.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.13M	714.84K	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Gross Profit	-6.21M	-4.28M	-239.00	0.00	-100.00K	-6.59K
EBITDA	-28.57M	-27.15M	-7.37M	-4.58M	-2.56M	-5.52M
Net Income	-32.73M	-32.44M	-9.00M	-11.68M	16.12M	-41.96M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	83.36M	84.20M	92.85M	52.98M	29.30M	26.92M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	3.14M	4.48M	10.77M	6.89M	9.79M	22.44M
Total Debt	40.99M	24.27M	21.20M	11.50M	349.82K	11.10K
Total Liabilities	49.62M	43.21M	40.55M	27.77M	32.36M	53.07M
Stockholders Equity	33.74M	55.93M	52.30M	25.20M	-3.06M	-26.15M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-29.65M	-30.90M	-21.05M	-20.56M	-14.60M	-5.75M
Operating Cash Flow	-24.96M	-29.64M	-8.89M	-7.05M	-1.63M	-1.43M
Investing Cash Flow	-4.70M	-13.46M	-20.93M	-14.05M	-13.14M	-4.33M
Financing Cash Flow	30.63M	32.56M	33.70M	18.61M	2.05M	27.83M

NextSource Materials Inc Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 0.41
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:NEXT, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 0.41 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.51, below the 50-day MA of 0.44, and above the 200-day MA of 0.37, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.03 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 54.38 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 25.00 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TSE:NEXT.

NextSource Materials Inc Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
NBM	53 Neutral	C$87.94M	-14.42	-450.88%	―	―	-38.68%
NEXT	51 Neutral	C$94.30M	-2.45	-67.77%	―	―	-156.65%
LLG	50 Neutral	C$15.24M	0.80	45.75%	―	―	158.45%
FMS	47 Neutral	C$46.01M	-13.80	-16.33%	―	―	-64.76%
NGC	45 Neutral	C$39.79M	-1.13	―	―	2.76%	-1.06%
STS	44 Neutral	C$14.09M	-0.88	―	―	―	―

NextSource Materials Inc Corporate Events

NextSource Secures Japanese Backing for US$30 Million UAE Battery Anode Project

NextSource Materials has signed a non-binding letter of intent with Japanese trading house Hanwa Co. and government agency JOGMEC for a potential project-level equity investment of up to US$30 million in Phase 1 of its planned Battery Anode Facility in Abu Dhabi, representing up to a 15% stake. The proposed investment, to be made via a jointly owned special purpose vehicle and accompanied by an exclusivity period through March 2026, would support an initial 14,000 tonnes per year of natural graphite anode capacity and underpin a broader strategic framework that may include preferential Japanese offtake, logistics support, and long-term graphite feedstock supply from the Molo mine, reinforcing NextSource’s progress toward a final investment decision and strengthening its positioning in diversified, Japan-linked battery supply chains.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:NEXT) stock is a Hold with a C$0.52 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NextSource Materials Inc stock, see the TSE:NEXT Stock Forecast page.

NextSource Secures Strategic Investor Term Sheets for UAE Battery Anode Plant

NextSource Materials has signed multiple non-binding term sheets with strategic investors, including UAE sovereign-linked entities and a Japanese consortium, to fund Phase 1 of its proposed Battery Anode Facility in Abu Dhabi, under a structure that could see new partners acquire up to 50% of the project and contribute their pro rata share of capital costs. The contemplated equity partnerships, which follow completion of initial due diligence and a site visit, are designed to limit corporate dilution while bringing regional and supply-chain expertise, and support NextSource’s target of reaching a final investment decision on the UAE plant by the end of the first quarter of 2026, after which the company plans to move into full equipment procurement, installation, commissioning and phased ramp-up, potentially strengthening its role in diversifying anode supply away from China.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:NEXT) stock is a Sell with a C$0.42 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NextSource Materials Inc stock, see the TSE:NEXT Stock Forecast page.

NextSource Advances UAE Battery Anode Facility With First Equipment Arrival and FEED Progress

NextSource Materials has achieved a key development milestone with the arrival of the first shipment of long-lead anode processing equipment in Abu Dhabi for its inaugural Battery Anode Facility, underscoring its downstream expansion strategy in the United Arab Emirates. The equipment will be installed in a pre-existing industrial building in the Industrial City of Abu Dhabi, which reduces construction time and capital needs and allows the company to focus on process installation and operational readiness, while progress in front-end engineering and design to the schematic stage is sharpening cost and plant design estimates that will underpin a final investment decision and subsequent full-scale procurement, installation, commissioning and phased ramp-up.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:NEXT) stock is a Hold with a C$0.35 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NextSource Materials Inc stock, see the TSE:NEXT Stock Forecast page.

NextSource Shareholders Back Board and Auditor as Battery Materials Strategy Advances

NextSource Materials reported that shareholders strongly endorsed the company’s leadership and governance at its 2025 annual meeting, re-electing all director nominees with support levels near 99.5% or higher and backing the appointment of PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP as auditor for the fiscal year ending June 30, 2026, with 99.9% of votes cast in favour. With 54.7% of eligible shares represented at the virtual meeting, the results signal robust shareholder support as NextSource advances production at its Molo graphite mine in Madagascar and invests in downstream Battery Anode Facilities, reinforcing its strategic push to position itself as a key vertically integrated supplier to the global battery and electric-vehicle supply chain.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:NEXT) stock is a Hold with a C$0.35 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NextSource Materials Inc stock, see the TSE:NEXT Stock Forecast page.

NextSource Materials Hosts Strategic Investors at Abu Dhabi Battery Anode Facility

NextSource Materials Inc. hosted a site visit for strategic investors at its first commercial-scale Battery Anode Facility in Abu Dhabi, showcasing its readiness and strategic significance. This facility is a key part of NextSource’s vertical integration strategy, aiming to position the company as the largest anode producer outside of Asia, and is crucial for fulfilling a multi-year offtake agreement with Mitsubishi Chemical Corporation. The facility’s location offers competitive advantages, and the company is advancing its engineering and design processes with partners, targeting initial production by Q4 2026.