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Canada Goose Holdings Inc (TSE:GOOS)
TSX:GOOS
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Canada Goose Holdings
(TSX:GOOS)
Rating:66Neutral
Price Target:
C$17.50
▼(-2.83% Downside)
Positive Factors
Direct-to-Consumer Growth
Total revenue increased by 22% vs. Street 4% estimate given a 15% increase in DTC comparable sales.
Strategic Sale
Recent reports that Bain Capital is looking to sell appear to have merit, with initial offers representing a premium to the closing price.
Valuation and Growth Potential
Canada Goose is considered an inexpensive stock with a solid brand and lots of growth potential.
Negative Factors
EBIT Margin Decline
GOOS' EBIT margin has decreased 1220bps since FY19, coinciding with its owned store base increasing from 11 to 74.
Operating Profit Challenges
Operating profit missed Street estimates driven by increased marketing spend with Spring-Summer 25/Snow Goose campaigns.
Retail Investments
GOOS' senior management has significantly over-invested in high street retail locations, leading to excessive fixed costs.
Canada Goose Holdings (GOOS) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
$1.73B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)313.70K
Price to Earnings (P/E)37.0
Beta (1Y)1.05
Revenue Growth2.45%
EPS Growth-17.73%
CountryCA
Employees4,462
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength81
IndustryApparel - Manufacturers
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.91
Shares Outstanding46,063,976
10 Day Avg. Volume311,623
30 Day Avg. Volume313,696
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.17
Price to Book (P/B)2.04
Price to Sales (P/S)0.82
P/FCF Ratio4.03
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.20
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.51
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.16
Enterprise Value/Ebitda8.86
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$19.10Price Target Upside6.05% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering9
Canada Goose Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionCanada Goose Holdings Inc. designs, manufactures, and sells performance luxury apparel for men, women, youth, children, and babies in Canada, the United States, Asia Pacific, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America. The company operates through three segments: Direct-to-Consumer, Wholesale, and Other. It offers parkas, lightweight down jackets, rainwear, windwear, knitwear, footwear, and accessories for fall, winter, and spring seasons. As of April 3, 2022, the company operated through its 56 national e-commerce markets and 41 directly operated retail stores in North America, Europe, and Asia Pacific. It also sells its products through wholesale partners and distributors. The company was founded in 1957 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.
How the Company Makes MoneyCanada Goose generates revenue primarily through the sale of its high-end outerwear and apparel products. The company operates a direct-to-consumer model that includes branded retail stores and an online platform, which allows for higher profit margins compared to wholesale distribution. Key revenue streams include sales from both international and domestic markets, with a notable increase in direct-to-consumer sales contributing to overall growth. Additionally, Canada Goose has established partnerships with select luxury retailers and department stores to expand its reach. The brand's strong reputation and loyal customer base, along with seasonal demand for winter apparel, further bolster its earnings.
Canada Goose Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 31, 2025
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 29, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call presented a strong start to the fiscal year with notable revenue growth, especially in the North American and APAC regions. The company made significant progress in sustainability and inventory management. However, increased SG&A expenses, challenges in EMEA, and consumer softness in Japan and the U.K. were notable concerns.Q1-2026 Updates
Positive Updates
Significant Revenue Growth
Revenue for the first quarter was $108 million, up 22% year-over-year on a reported and constant currency basis.
Direct-to-Consumer Channel Success
D2C revenue increased to $78 million, up 23%. This channel showed a 15% comparable sales growth on a consolidated basis.
Strong Performance in North America and Mainland China
Revenue in North America was up 27%, with stores leading the way. APAC revenue increased by 27%, driven by strong D2C growth in Mainland China.
Sustainability Achievements
In fiscal 2025, achieved a 9% reduction in Scope 1 emissions and a 25% reduction in Scope 3 emissions, while investing in 10 renewable energy projects.
Inventory Management Improvements
Inventory was $440 million, down 9% year-over-year, marking the seventh consecutive quarter of year-over-year inventory declines.
Strong Operational Foundation
Net debt was significantly reduced to $542 million compared to $766 million at the end of Q1 fiscal '25, reflecting improved cash performance.
Negative Updates
SG&A Expenses Increase
SG&A expenses increased by 50% year-over-year, partly due to a $44 million one-time arbitration charge and a $9 million earn-out.
Adjusted EBIT Loss
Adjusted EBIT was a loss of $106 million, increasing from a loss of $96 million in Q1 last year.
Challenges in EMEA
Revenue in EMEA was down slightly due to a planned decline in wholesale revenue and low single-digit negative D2C comparable sales growth.
U.K. Consumer Pressure
D2C comparable sales growth in the U.K. was negative, reflecting a consumer under pressure with macroeconomic challenges affecting performance.
Japan Consumer Softness
Softer trends in Japan tempered growth in the APAC region, impacting overall performance.
Company Guidance
During the Canada Goose Q1 Fiscal Year 2026 earnings call, several key metrics and strategic priorities were highlighted. Revenue for the first quarter was $108 million, marking a 22% increase year-over-year. The direct-to-consumer (D2C) channel was a primary driver, with a 15% growth in comparable sales. The company experienced significant growth in North America and APAC, particularly in Mainland China, while Europe saw a slight decline due to planned decreases in wholesale revenue. Gross margin expanded by 170 basis points to 61.4%. SG&A expenses increased by 50% year-over-year, including one-time charges, but adjusted SG&A grew at a slower pace than revenue, improving as a percentage of revenue by 850 basis points. Inventory was reduced by 9% from the prior year, and net debt decreased significantly, reflecting improved inventory management and strong operating cash performance. The company emphasized continued investment in strategic marketing, product innovation, and store operations to sustain growth.Canada Goose Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Canada Goose Holdings exhibits strong financial health with consistent revenue growth and improving profitability metrics. The company maintains a robust cash flow position, enhancing its ability to invest and manage debt effectively. However, attention should be given to managing leverage to avoid potential financial strain.Income Statement
Canada Goose has shown a consistent revenue growth with a revenue increase from $1.09 billion in 2022 to $1.35 billion in 2025. The gross profit margin has remained strong, reflecting efficient production and pricing strategies. Net profit margin improved significantly from 5.32% in 2024 to 7.03% in 2025, indicating better cost control and operational efficiency. However, EBIT margins have fluctuated, suggesting some variability in operational efficiency.78
Positive
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet reflects a strong equity position with an equity ratio of 33.49% in 2025. The debt-to-equity ratio is relatively high at 1.37, suggesting leverage risk if not managed carefully. Return on equity improved from 13.99% in 2024 to 17.52% in 2025, indicating improved profitability relative to shareholder equity. The overall financial health is stable but warrants monitoring of debt levels.72
Positive
Cash Flow
Operating cash flows have shown strength with a significant increase in free cash flow from $108.1 million in 2024 to $274 million in 2025. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is impressive, indicating robust cash generation relative to reported profits. Free cash flow growth rate is substantial, reflecting effective cash management and investment strategies.82
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.37B | 1.35B | 1.33B | 1.22B | 1.10B | 903.70M |
| Gross Profit | 956.70M | 943.10M | 917.40M | 815.20M | 733.60M | 554.00M |
| EBITDA | 233.70M | 299.80M | 244.30M | 236.50M | 263.70M | 192.10M |
| Net Income | 47.00M | 94.80M | 58.40M | 72.70M | 94.60M | 70.30M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.53B | 1.62B | 1.48B | 1.59B | 1.34B | 1.51B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 180.50M | 334.40M | 144.90M | 286.50M | 287.70M | 477.90M |
| Total Debt | 721.90M | 742.80M | 728.40M | 754.00M | 620.70M | 622.60M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.08B | 1.06B | 1.06B | 1.11B | 912.70M | 907.10M |
| Stockholders Equity | 431.70M | 541.20M | 417.00M | 469.50M | 427.90M | 600.10M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 275.10M | 274.00M | 108.10M | 68.20M | 114.40M | 261.70M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 292.50M | 292.40M | 164.60M | 116.30M | 151.60M | 293.70M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -17.40M | -18.40M | -72.40M | -45.30M | -37.20M | -32.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -165.30M | -93.60M | -232.80M | -80.70M | -298.20M | 197.00M |
Canada Goose Holdings Technical Analysis
Positive
18.01
Price Trends
17.06
Positive
15.29
Positive
14.57
Positive
Market Momentum
0.26
Negative
58.35
Neutral
60.45
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:GOOS, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 18.01 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 16.23, above the 50-day MA of 17.06, and above the 200-day MA of 14.57, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.26 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 58.35 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 60.45 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:GOOS.
Canada Goose Holdings Risk Analysis
Canada Goose Holdings disclosed 49 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Canada Goose Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Canada Goose Holdings Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
66 Neutral | $1.73B | 37.04 | 11.35% | ― | 2.45% | -17.73% | |
61 Neutral | $17.87B | 13.25 | -4.88% | 3.05% | 1.25% | -14.67% | |
| ― | $8.11B | 16.65 | 29.70% | 1.68% | ― | ― | |
64 Neutral | C$510.77M | 13.98 | 10.85% | 1.07% | 10.36% | -4.77% | |
58 Neutral | C$127.11M | 30.45 | -19.69% | ― | 2.63% | -3376.73% | |
51 Neutral | C$24.34M | ― | -16.28% | ― | -3.10% | 67.01% | |
| ― | $5.69B | 41.02 | 23.27% | ― | ― | ― |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
TSE:GOOS
Canada Goose Holdings
18.12
3.05
20.24%
GIL
Gildan Activewear
53.03
9.04
20.55%
TSE:PBL
Pollard Banknote
18.75
-6.28
-25.09%
TSE:UNI
Unisync
1.29
-0.35
-21.34%
TSE:ROOT
Roots Corporation
3.08
0.98
46.67%
ATZAF
Aritzia
61.44
28.04
83.95%
Canada Goose Holdings Corporate Events
Legal ProceedingsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Canada Goose Faces $30 Million Charge in Vendor Dispute
Negative
Jun 4, 2025
Canada Goose Holdings Inc. announced that an arbitrator has awarded financial compensation to a former vendor due to a contract termination dispute from 2021, resulting in a one-time financial charge of approximately $30 million USD. Despite disagreeing with the award’s legal basis, Canada Goose states this judgment will not impact current vendor relationships or long-term financial strategy, reaffirming its commitment to brand growth and shareholder value.
The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:GOOS) stock is a Sell with a C$11.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Canada Goose Holdings stock, see the TSE:GOOS Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.