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Canada Goose Holdings Inc (TSE:GOOS)
TSX:GOOS
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Canada Goose Holdings
(TSX:GOOS)
Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:
C$16.00
▲(1.78% Upside)
Positive Factors
Direct-to-Consumer Momentum
Canada Goose has quietly begun to inflect their business with material improvements in product and marketing driving meaningful direct-to-consumer growth, while wholesale upside now appears more visible.
Revenue Growth
Revenue accelerated sequentially as Americas and China were better, which bodes well for future quarters.
Negative Factors
Operating Profit
Operating profit missed Street estimates driven by increased marketing spend with Spring-Summer 25/Snow Goose campaigns.
SG&A and Margins
SG&A is likely to be well above the current consensus estimate, and operating margins further distance themselves from the peak of 24.9% in FY19.
Canada Goose Holdings (GOOS) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
$1.48B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)301.67K
Price to Earnings (P/E)31.4
Beta (1Y)1.08
Revenue Growth2.45%
EPS Growth-17.73%
CountryCA
Employees4,462
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength71
IndustryApparel - Manufacturers
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.91
Shares Outstanding46,063,976
10 Day Avg. Volume308,871
30 Day Avg. Volume301,667
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.17
Price to Book (P/B)2.04
Price to Sales (P/S)0.82
P/FCF Ratio4.03
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.40
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.51
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.16
Enterprise Value/Ebitda8.86
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$16.47Price Target Upside4.75% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering10
Canada Goose Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionCanada Goose Holdings Inc. designs, manufactures, and sells performance luxury apparel for men, women, youth, children, and babies in Canada, the United States, Asia Pacific, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America. The company operates through three segments: Direct-to-Consumer, Wholesale, and Other. It offers parkas, lightweight down jackets, rainwear, windwear, knitwear, footwear, and accessories for fall, winter, and spring seasons. As of April 3, 2022, the company operated through its 56 national e-commerce markets and 41 directly operated retail stores in North America, Europe, and Asia Pacific. It also sells its products through wholesale partners and distributors. The company was founded in 1957 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.
How the Company Makes MoneyCanada Goose generates revenue primarily through the sale of its high-end outerwear and apparel products. The company operates a direct-to-consumer model that includes branded retail stores and an online platform, which allows for higher profit margins compared to wholesale distribution. Key revenue streams include sales from both international and domestic markets, with a notable increase in direct-to-consumer sales contributing to overall growth. Additionally, Canada Goose has established partnerships with select luxury retailers and department stores to expand its reach. The brand's strong reputation and loyal customer base, along with seasonal demand for winter apparel, further bolster its earnings.
Canada Goose Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 31, 2025
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: -11.09%|
Next Earnings Date:Oct 29, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reflected strong performance in key markets, notably North America and APAC, with significant revenue growth and effective inventory management. However, increased SG&A expenses and adjusted EBIT losses were notable challenges. While sustainability achievements were highlighted, challenges in EMEA and Japan posed concerns. Overall, the highlights were balanced by the lowlights, leading to a cautious outlook.Q1-2026 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Revenue Growth
Revenue for the first quarter was $108 million, up 22% year-over-year on a reported and constant currency basis.
Direct-to-Consumer Success
D2C revenue increased to $78 million, up 23%, with a 15% comparable sales growth, marking the seventh consecutive month of positive comps.
North America and APAC Performance
Revenue in North America was up 27%, and APAC revenue increased by 27%, with strong performance in Mainland China.
Inventory Management
Inventory was $440 million, down 9%, marking the seventh consecutive quarter of year-over-year inventory declines.
Sustainability Achievements
Achieved a 9% reduction in Scope 1 emissions and a 25% reduction in Scope 3 emissions, with investments in 10 renewable energy projects.
Negative Updates
Increased SG&A Expenses
SG&A expenses increased by 50% year-over-year, including a $44 million onetime charge related to an arbitration award.
Adjusted EBIT and Net Loss
Adjusted EBIT was a loss of $106 million, increasing from a loss of $96 million in Q1 last year. Adjusted net loss attributable to shareholders was $88 million.
EMEA Revenue Decline
EMEA revenue was down slightly year-over-year due to a planned decline in wholesale revenue and low single-digit negative D2C comparable sales growth.
Challenges in Japan
Softer trends in Japan tempered growth in the APAC region, reflecting weaker consumer confidence and macroeconomic challenges.
Company Guidance
During the Canada Goose Quarter 1 Fiscal Year 2026 earnings call, the company provided comprehensive guidance on its financial performance and strategic initiatives. Revenue for the quarter increased by 22% year-over-year to $108 million, with a notable 15% growth in direct-to-consumer (D2C) comparable sales, marking a seventh consecutive month of positive comps. The company highlighted strong performance in North America and Mainland China, with revenue in these regions up 27%, driven by both e-commerce and store sales. Gross margin expanded by 170 basis points to 61.4%, and the company achieved a 9% reduction in Scope 1 emissions and a 25% reduction in Scope 3 emissions in fiscal 2025. SG&A expenses rose by 50% to $225 million, including a one-time charge of $44 million, but adjusted SG&A grew at a slower pace than revenue, improving as a percentage of revenue by 850 basis points. The company ended the quarter with $542 million of net debt, reflecting an improvement from the previous year's $766 million, and its net debt leverage was 1.8x adjusted EBITDA compared to 2.8x the previous year. The earnings call emphasized expanding product offerings, enhancing brand heat through strategic marketing, and maintaining a strong operational focus, all contributing to the company's confidence in continued growth opportunities.Canada Goose Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Canada Goose Holdings exhibits strong financial health with consistent revenue growth and improving profitability metrics. The company maintains a robust cash flow position, enhancing its ability to invest and manage debt effectively. However, attention should be given to managing leverage to avoid potential financial strain.Income Statement
Canada Goose has shown a consistent revenue growth with a revenue increase from $1.09 billion in 2022 to $1.35 billion in 2025. The gross profit margin has remained strong, reflecting efficient production and pricing strategies. Net profit margin improved significantly from 5.32% in 2024 to 7.03% in 2025, indicating better cost control and operational efficiency. However, EBIT margins have fluctuated, suggesting some variability in operational efficiency.78
Positive
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet reflects a strong equity position with an equity ratio of 33.49% in 2025. The debt-to-equity ratio is relatively high at 1.37, suggesting leverage risk if not managed carefully. Return on equity improved from 13.99% in 2024 to 17.52% in 2025, indicating improved profitability relative to shareholder equity. The overall financial health is stable but warrants monitoring of debt levels.72
Positive
Cash Flow
Operating cash flows have shown strength with a significant increase in free cash flow from $108.1 million in 2024 to $274 million in 2025. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is impressive, indicating robust cash generation relative to reported profits. Free cash flow growth rate is substantial, reflecting effective cash management and investment strategies.82
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.37B | 1.35B | 1.33B | 1.22B | 1.10B | 903.70M |
| Gross Profit | 956.70M | 943.10M | 917.40M | 815.20M | 733.60M | 554.00M |
| EBITDA | 233.70M | 299.80M | 244.30M | 236.50M | 263.70M | 192.10M |
| Net Income | 47.00M | 94.80M | 58.40M | 72.70M | 94.60M | 70.30M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.53B | 1.62B | 1.48B | 1.59B | 1.34B | 1.51B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 180.50M | 334.40M | 144.90M | 286.50M | 287.70M | 477.90M |
| Total Debt | 721.90M | 742.80M | 728.40M | 754.00M | 620.70M | 622.60M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.08B | 1.06B | 1.06B | 1.11B | 912.70M | 907.10M |
| Stockholders Equity | 431.70M | 541.20M | 417.00M | 469.50M | 427.90M | 600.10M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 275.10M | 274.00M | 108.10M | 68.20M | 114.40M | 261.70M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 292.50M | 292.40M | 164.60M | 116.30M | 151.60M | 293.70M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -17.40M | -18.40M | -72.40M | -45.30M | -37.20M | -32.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -165.30M | -93.60M | -232.80M | -80.70M | -298.20M | 197.00M |
Canada Goose Holdings Technical Analysis
Neutral
15.72
Price Trends
16.81
Negative
14.58
Positive
14.37
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.53
Positive
39.93
Neutral
10.82
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:GOOS, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 15.72 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 17.74, below the 50-day MA of 16.81, and above the 200-day MA of 14.37, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.53 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 39.93 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 10.82 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TSE:GOOS.
Canada Goose Holdings Risk Analysis
Canada Goose Holdings disclosed 49 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Canada Goose Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Canada Goose Holdings Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (56)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
60 Neutral | $1.48B | 31.37 | 11.35% | ― | 2.45% | -17.73% | |
56 Neutral | HK$25.39B | 4.88 | -2.69% | 5.70% | -0.49% | -53.32% | |
| ― | $7.70B | 16.38 | 29.70% | 1.75% | ― | ― | |
74 Outperform | C$573.83M | 14.35 | 12.45% | 0.94% | 11.03% | 18.83% | |
61 Neutral | C$130.74M | 30.45 | -19.69% | ― | 2.63% | -3376.73% | |
51 Neutral | C$24.91M | ― | -16.28% | ― | -8.08% | 46.56% | |
| ― | $4.90B | 34.86 | 23.27% | ― | ― | ― |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
TSE:GOOS
Canada Goose Holdings
15.72
1.57
11.10%
GIL
Gildan Activewear
49.12
8.27
20.24%
TSE:PBL
Pollard Banknote
21.38
0.95
4.65%
TSE:UNI
Unisync
1.31
-0.38
-22.49%
TSE:ROOT
Roots Corporation
3.22
1.15
55.56%
ATZAF
Aritzia
53.48
21.74
68.49%
Canada Goose Holdings Corporate Events
Legal ProceedingsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Canada Goose Faces $30 Million Charge in Vendor Dispute
Negative
Jun 4, 2025
Canada Goose Holdings Inc. announced that an arbitrator has awarded financial compensation to a former vendor due to a contract termination dispute from 2021, resulting in a one-time financial charge of approximately $30 million USD. Despite disagreeing with the award’s legal basis, Canada Goose states this judgment will not impact current vendor relationships or long-term financial strategy, reaffirming its commitment to brand growth and shareholder value.
The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:GOOS) stock is a Sell with a C$11.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Canada Goose Holdings stock, see the TSE:GOOS Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.