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Canada Goose Holdings Inc (TSE:GOOS)
TSX:GOOS
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Canada Goose Holdings
(TSX:GOOS)
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Rating:57Neutral
Price Target:
C$15.50
▲(3.89% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/07/26
The score is driven primarily by mixed financial performance: strong gross margins and continued cash generation are offset by sharply weaker profitability and elevated leverage. Technical signals are bearish and weigh on the score, while the very low P/E provides meaningful valuation support.
Positive Factors
Gross margin / Pricing power
A sustained ~68% gross margin reflects durable premium pricing and brand strength in performance luxury outerwear. High gross margins provide structural buffer against input cost inflation, support higher retail markups, and enable investment in DTC and product innovation over months ahead.
Cash generation
Consistent operating cash and FCF provide lasting financial flexibility despite weaker reported profits. Robust absolute cash generation funds store operations, inventory, and targeted marketing, and can be deployed to deleverage or support strategic DTC expansion over the next several quarters.
Top-line growth and channel mix
Positive revenue growth indicates resilient consumer demand and effective distribution. Revenue expansion across DTC and wholesale plus non-parka categories reduces seasonality risk and supports a structurally higher baseline for margins and scale benefits over a 2-6 month horizon.
Negative Factors
Compressed profitability
Sharp margin compression to ~1.5% net and ~5.5% EBIT signals weaker operating leverage and rising cost pressure. Low conversion of revenue to profit limits reinvestment capacity, increases sensitivity to sales slowdowns, and makes margin recovery structurally harder in the near term.
Elevated leverage
High debt relative to equity reduces financial flexibility for a discretionary apparel business. Elevated leverage increases interest and refinancing risk, constrains capital allocation to growth or inventories, and magnifies downside during demand softness over coming quarters.
Weakened return on equity
ROE decline to ~5.4% reflects diminished profit generation on shareholder capital. Lower ROE reduces attractiveness for long-term investors and suggests the business is not yet re-leveraging its equity gains into proportional earnings, limiting strategic reinvestment options.
Canada Goose Holdings (GOOS) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
$1.44B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)177.84K
Price to Earnings (P/E)3.2
Beta (1Y)1.46
Revenue Growth3.78%
EPS Growth-54.87%
CountryCA
Employees4,462
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryApparel - Manufacturers
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.43
Shares Outstanding46,124,374
10 Day Avg. Volume92,045
30 Day Avg. Volume177,838
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.81
Price to Book (P/B)4.04
Price to Sales (P/S)1.26
P/FCF Ratio15.59
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.46
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.44
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.11
Enterprise Value/Ebitda10.02
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$15.31Price Target Upside2.61% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)0.8
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.48B
Canada Goose Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionCanada Goose Holdings Inc. designs, manufactures, and sells performance luxury apparel for men, women, youth, children, and babies in Canada, the United States, Asia Pacific, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America. The company operates through three segments: Direct-to-Consumer, Wholesale, and Other. It offers parkas, lightweight down jackets, rainwear, windwear, knitwear, footwear, and accessories for fall, winter, and spring seasons. As of April 3, 2022, the company operated through its 56 national e-commerce markets and 41 directly operated retail stores in North America, Europe, and Asia Pacific. It also sells its products through wholesale partners and distributors. The company was founded in 1957 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.
How the Company Makes MoneyCanada Goose generates revenue primarily through the sale of its premium outerwear and related apparel. The company operates a direct-to-consumer model, selling products through its own branded retail stores and e-commerce platforms, which allows for higher profit margins. Additionally, Canada Goose sells its products through wholesale channels, partnering with select luxury department stores and specialty retailers worldwide. Key revenue streams include seasonal collections, limited edition releases, and collaborations that boost brand visibility. The company's focus on international expansion, particularly in markets such as Europe and Asia, along with strategic marketing and brand positioning, contributes significantly to its earnings.
Canada Goose Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Nov 06, 2025
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 14, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a mix of strong sales growth in the DTC channel and new product offerings, especially in APAC, with challenges related to operating margins and revenue declines in certain regions. The company showed confidence in strategic investments for long-term growth despite short-term margin pressures.Q2-2026 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Direct-to-Consumer Sales Growth
Direct-to-consumer comparable sales grew 10% year-over-year with positive comps in all regions, marking 10 consecutive months of positive comps. D2C revenue was up 21% with sustained strong performance across all regions.
Increase in New Product Offerings
Revenue from new styles as a percentage of total revenue more than doubled year-over-year, driven by new products in both downfilled and non-downfill categories, with newness now representing roughly 40% of DTC sales.
Growth in APAC Region
Revenue in APAC increased 20%, driven by growth in both DTC and wholesale channels, with Mainland China leading the way and strong demand in Japan supported by new store openings.
Gross Margin Improvement
Gross margin expanded 110 basis points year-over-year to 62.4%, primarily due to favorable channel mix with more DTC and less revenue in other channels.
Successful Cost Management
Inventory was down 3% from last year, reflecting stronger consumer demand and tighter inventory management. Net debt was reduced compared to the same period last year.
Negative Updates
Pressure on Operating Margin
Operating margin was pressured by key investments in marketing and stores, leading to a loss of $14 million in adjusted EBIT for the quarter compared to a $3 million profit in Q2 last year.
Revenue Decline in North America and EMEA
Revenue in North America was down 8% year-over-year due to channel mix and timing of wholesale shipments. Revenue in EMEA was down 7% year-over-year, with challenges in the U.K. consumer environment.
Increase in SG&A Expenses
SG&A expense for the quarter increased by $25 million or 16% year-over-year, reflecting planned investments in marketing, stores, and product creation, leading to a decrease in EBIT dollars and margin.
Company Guidance
During the Canada Goose Inc. Second Quarter Fiscal 2026 Earnings Call, the company reported a 2% increase in revenue to $273 million, although this represented a 1% decline on a constant currency basis. Direct-to-consumer (DTC) comparable sales grew by 10% year-over-year, with strong performances across all regions, particularly North America and APAC, where the revenue increased by 20%. The company emphasized the success of new product offerings, with revenue from new styles now making up 40% of DTC sales, up from 10% the previous year. However, wholesale revenue fell by 5%, aligning with expectations. Gross margin expanded by 110 basis points to 62.4%, despite higher product costs. SG&A expenses increased by 16% year-over-year, attributed to investments in marketing and stores, contributing to an adjusted EBIT loss of $14 million. Inventory levels were managed carefully, showing a 3% decrease from the prior year, and net debt was reduced to $707 million. The company remains confident in its strategy, aiming for sustained growth and improved margins in the coming quarters.Canada Goose Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Revenue is growing (+6.3% TTM) and gross margin remains very strong (~68%), but profitability has deteriorated sharply (net margin ~1.5% TTM; EBIT margin ~5.5%). Cash flow is still solid (~$186M TTM FCF), yet leverage is elevated (debt-to-equity ~1.77) with modest debt coverage (OCF coverage ~0.44), limiting flexibility.Income Statement
TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue grew 6.3% to ~$1.46B and gross margin remains very strong (~68%), supporting solid underlying brand pricing power. However, profitability has compressed materially: net margin fell to ~1.5% in TTM (vs ~4.4% in FY2025 and ~8.6% in FY2022), and EBIT margin is down to ~5.5% TTM, indicating higher costs and/or weaker operating leverage. Overall, top-line trend is positive, but the sharp decline in bottom-line conversion is the key weakness.58
Neutral
Balance Sheet
Leverage is elevated with debt-to-equity ~1.77 in TTM (and consistently >1.4 over the period), which reduces financial flexibility for a consumer discretionary business. Equity has improved versus FY2024 (~$565M vs ~$417M), but return on equity has weakened to ~5.4% TTM (vs ~14% in FY2025 and >20% in FY2022), reflecting the lower earnings base. The balance sheet is serviceable, but the combination of high leverage and softer returns is a clear risk factor.49
Neutral
Cash Flow
Cash generation remains a relative bright spot: TTM operating cash flow is ~$216M and free cash flow is ~$186M, showing the business is still producing cash despite weaker reported earnings. That said, free cash flow declined ~8.7% in TTM, and operating cash flow covers less than half of total debt in TTM (coverage ~0.44), which is modest given leverage. Overall: healthy absolute cash flow, but recent growth and debt coverage are not strong.62
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Mar 2024 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2022 | Mar 2021 | Mar 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.46B | 1.35B | 1.22B | 1.10B | 903.70M | 958.10M |
| Gross Profit | 994.20M | 943.10M | 815.20M | 733.60M | 554.00M | 593.30M |
| EBITDA | 209.50M | 299.80M | 236.50M | 263.70M | 190.70M | 255.20M |
| Net Income | 21.50M | 94.80M | 72.70M | 94.60M | 70.30M | 148.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.80B | 1.62B | 1.59B | 1.34B | 1.51B | 1.11B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 346.90M | 334.40M | 286.50M | 287.70M | 477.90M | 31.70M |
| Total Debt | 999.50M | 742.80M | 754.00M | 620.70M | 622.60M | 386.00M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.22B | 1.06B | 1.11B | 912.70M | 907.10M | 592.50M |
| Stockholders Equity | 565.40M | 541.20M | 469.50M | 427.90M | 600.10M | 520.20M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 185.90M | 274.00M | 68.20M | 114.40M | 261.70M | 200.00K |
| Operating Cash Flow | 215.80M | 292.40M | 116.30M | 151.60M | 293.70M | 62.50M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -30.30M | -18.40M | -45.30M | -37.20M | -32.00M | -62.30M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -122.70M | -93.60M | -80.70M | -298.20M | 197.00M | -58.70M |
Canada Goose Holdings Technical Analysis
Negative
14.92
Price Trends
16.84
Negative
17.65
Negative
17.60
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.58
Positive
34.26
Neutral
15.28
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:GOOS, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 14.92 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 16.01, below the 50-day MA of 16.84, and below the 200-day MA of 17.60, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.58 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 34.26 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 15.28 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:GOOS.
Canada Goose Holdings Risk Analysis
Canada Goose Holdings disclosed 49 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Canada Goose Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Canada Goose Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | C$13.48B | 23.21 | 29.12% | ― | 26.51% | 172.52% | |
64 Neutral | C$14.85B | 23.55 | 20.31% | 1.47% | 6.64% | 27.37% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
57 Neutral | $1.44B | 3.20 | 4.23% | ― | 3.78% | -54.87% | |
55 Neutral | C$101.19M | 30.61 | -0.06% | ― | -1.95% | -102.54% | |
54 Neutral | C$134.50M | 14.11 | -19.60% | ― | 4.87% | -1195.39% | |
48 Neutral | C$6.44B | 23.28 | 5.55% | 0.86% | -5.14% | -87.15% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
TSE:GOOS
Canada Goose Holdings
14.79
2.78
23.15%
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.