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Canada Goose Holdings Inc (TSE:GOOS)
TSX:GOOS
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Canada Goose Holdings
(TSX:GOOS)
Rating:77Outperform
Price Target:
C$21.50
▲(10.82%Upside)
Positive Factors
Gross Margin Improvement
Gross margin exceeded expectations due to lower inventory provisioning and a higher proportion of direct-to-consumer revenue.
Revenue Growth
Canada Goose reported an increase in total revenue by 7.4% due to a 6.8% rise in direct-to-consumer comparable sales.
Sales Inflection
GOOS management did call out a positive sales inflection attributed to marketing campaigns supporting the Snow Goose and Sea Mantra collections.
Negative Factors
Brand Perception
There's a disconnect between management's belief that Canada Goose is a luxury brand, vs. consumers' belief that Canada Goose is a premium outdoor brand.
Market Sentiment
Management attributed slower traffic in China and the UK to 'more difficult consumer sentiment'.
Operating Margin Decline
As the Canada Goose store base has increased from 11 in FY19 to 68 in FY24, operating margin has decreased 1180bps to 13.1%.
Canada Goose Holdings (GOOS) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
$1.84B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)223.52K
Price to Earnings (P/E)19.9
Beta (1Y)0.99
Revenue Growth1.20%
EPS Growth60.11%
CountryCA
Employees4,462
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength65
IndustryApparel - Manufacturers
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.33
Shares Outstanding46,026,210
10 Day Avg. Volume293,668
30 Day Avg. Volume223,524
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.63
Price to Book (P/B)3.38
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00
P/FCF Ratio6.67
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$15.56Price Target Upside-19.77% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Sell
Number of Analyst Covering9
Canada Goose Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionCanada Goose Holdings Inc. designs, manufactures, and sells performance luxury apparel for men, women, youth, children, and babies in Canada, the United States, Asia Pacific, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America. The company operates through three segments: Direct-to-Consumer, Wholesale, and Other. It offers parkas, lightweight down jackets, rainwear, windwear, knitwear, footwear, and accessories for fall, winter, and spring seasons. As of April 3, 2022, the company operated through its 56 national e-commerce markets and 41 directly operated retail stores in North America, Europe, and Asia Pacific. It also sells its products through wholesale partners and distributors. The company was founded in 1957 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.
How the Company Makes MoneyCanada Goose Holdings Inc. generates revenue primarily through the design, manufacturing, and sales of its premium outerwear and apparel. The company's revenue model is largely retail-driven, with significant earnings derived from direct-to-consumer sales through its branded retail stores and e-commerce platforms. Additionally, Canada Goose engages in wholesale distribution, partnering with luxury department stores and specialty retailers around the world. Key revenue streams include the sale of parkas, jackets, knitwear, and accessories, with a focus on expanding its product offerings and market reach. Strategic partnerships, seasonal collections, and collaborations with designers and influencers also contribute to its financial performance.
Canada Goose Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 22, 2025
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: 31.17%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 31, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reflected a mix of positive growth in revenue, gross margin, and direct-to-consumer performance, with significant challenges in wholesale revenue and regional sales in EMEA and China. Inventory management showed positive results, but there was an increase in SG&A costs. The company is cautious due to uncertainties in the global trade environment.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Revenue Growth
Fourth quarter revenue increased by 7% year-over-year, with D2C comparable sales growth of 7%.
Gross Margin Improvement
Gross margin expanded by 620 basis points in Q4 to 71.3% and 69.9% for the full year.
D2C Sales Performance
D2C revenue increased to $314 million, up 12% year-over-year, with North America leading with a 17% comp growth for the quarter.
Inventory Management
Inventory was reduced by 14% year-over-year, with inventory turns reaching 1.0x, up from 0.9x last year.
Marketing Campaign Success
Marketing campaigns such as Sea Mantra and eyewear resulted in a 19% year-over-year increase in global brand search demand.
Adjusted EBIT Growth
Adjusted EBIT for Q4 was $60 million, up 49% year-over-year, with a margin expansion of 430 basis points.
Negative Updates
Wholesale Revenue Decline
Wholesale revenue declined by 18% for the full year, primarily due to strategic order book rationalization and challenging EMEA conditions.
Challenges in EMEA and China
D2C comparable sales growth in EMEA was negative 7% for the full year, and in APAC, it was negative 10%.
SG&A as a Percentage of Revenue
SG&A as a percent of revenue increased by 220 bps year-over-year in Q4 and 130 bps for the full year, indicating challenges in cost management.
Uncertain Global Trade Environment
Decision not to provide financial outlook for fiscal 2026 due to uncertainties in the global trade environment and macroeconomic conditions.
Company Guidance
During the Canada Goose Fourth Quarter Fiscal 2025 Earnings Call, the company reported a strong finish to the fiscal year with a 7% year-over-year increase in revenue, driven by a 7% growth in direct-to-consumer (D2C) comparable sales. Notably, the company saw a 19% year-over-year rise in global brand search demand, particularly boosted by its marketing campaigns for Sea Mantra and eyewear. Inventory management was a key focus, with inventory down year-over-year for six consecutive quarters. In the North American D2C sector, there was a robust 17% sales comp increase for the quarter. The company's gross margin expanded by 620 basis points to 71.3% in Q4, and adjusted EBIT increased by 49% year-over-year to $60 million, with an adjusted EBIT margin of 15.5%. The company also reported a significant improvement in inventory turnover, achieving 1.0x up from 0.9x the previous year. Despite the positive financial results, Canada Goose decided not to provide a financial outlook for fiscal 2026 due to global trade uncertainties, although they emphasized their strategic focus on brand heat, product expansion, and operational efficiency.Canada Goose Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Canada Goose has demonstrated strong financial health with consistent revenue growth and improved profitability metrics. The company shows a solid cash flow position, enhancing its ability to invest and manage debt. However, leverage remains a concern and should be monitored.Income Statement
Canada Goose has shown a consistent revenue growth with a revenue increase from $1.09 billion in 2022 to $1.35 billion in 2025. The gross profit margin has remained strong, reflecting efficient production and pricing strategies. Net profit margin improved significantly from 5.32% in 2024 to 7.03% in 2025, indicating better cost control and operational efficiency. However, EBIT margins have fluctuated, suggesting some variability in operational efficiency.78
Positive
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet reflects a strong equity position with an equity ratio of 33.49% in 2025. The debt-to-equity ratio is relatively high at 1.37, suggesting leverage risk if not managed carefully. Return on equity improved from 13.99% in 2024 to 17.52% in 2025, indicating improved profitability relative to shareholder equity. The overall financial health is stable but warrants monitoring of debt levels.72
Positive
Cash Flow
Operating cash flows have shown strength with a significant increase in free cash flow from $108.1 million in 2024 to $274 million in 2025. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is impressive, indicating robust cash generation relative to reported profits. Free cash flow growth rate is substantial, reflecting effective cash management and investment strategies.82
Very Positive
| Breakdown | Mar 2025 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2022 | Mar 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 1.35B | 1.33B | 1.22B | 1.10B | 903.70M |
| Gross Profit | 943.10M | 917.40M | 815.20M | 733.60M | 554.00M |
| EBITDA | 299.80M | 244.30M | 236.50M | 263.70M | 192.10M |
| Net Income | 94.80M | 58.40M | 72.70M | 94.60M | 70.30M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 1.62B | 1.48B | 1.59B | 1.34B | 1.51B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 334.40M | 144.90M | 286.50M | 287.70M | 477.90M |
| Total Debt | 742.80M | 728.40M | 754.00M | 620.70M | 622.60M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.06B | 1.06B | 1.11B | 912.70M | 907.10M |
| Stockholders Equity | 541.20M | 417.00M | 469.50M | 427.90M | 600.10M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 274.00M | 108.10M | 68.20M | 114.40M | 261.70M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 292.40M | 164.60M | 116.30M | 151.60M | 293.70M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -18.40M | -72.40M | -45.30M | -37.20M | -32.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -93.60M | -232.80M | -80.70M | -298.20M | 197.00M |
Canada Goose Holdings Technical Analysis
Positive
19.40
Price Trends
15.73
Positive
13.93
Positive
14.21
Positive
Market Momentum
1.05
Negative
75.69
Negative
88.91
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:GOOS, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 19.4 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 16.98, above the 50-day MA of 15.73, and above the 200-day MA of 14.21, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.05 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 75.69 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 88.91 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:GOOS.
Canada Goose Holdings Risk Analysis
Canada Goose Holdings disclosed 49 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Canada Goose Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Canada Goose Holdings Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (64)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $1.84B | 19.86 | 19.34% | ― | 1.20% | 60.11% | |
64 Neutral | £1.68B | 10.24 | 6.12% | 3.34% | 0.55% | -32.84% | |
| ― | $7.61B | 20.59 | 24.40% | 1.79% | ― | ― | |
79 Outperform | C$584.66M | 14.90 | 12.45% | 0.93% | 11.03% | 18.83% | |
60 Neutral | C$123.88M | 30.45 | -19.69% | ― | 2.63% | -3376.73% | |
52 Neutral | C$25.86M | ― | -30.57% | ― | -8.08% | 46.56% | |
| ― | $5.04B | 36.49 | 23.27% | ― | ― | ― |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
TSE:GOOS
Canada Goose Holdings
19.23
2.66
16.05%
GIL
Gildan Activewear
53.16
14.49
37.47%
TSE:PBL
Pollard Banknote
21.75
-5.15
-19.14%
TSE:UNI
Unisync
1.34
-0.39
-22.54%
TSE:ROOT
Roots Corporation
3.09
0.98
46.45%
ATZAF
Aritzia
54.55
21.17
63.42%
Canada Goose Holdings Corporate Events
Legal ProceedingsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Canada Goose Faces $30 Million Charge in Vendor Dispute
Negative
Jun 4, 2025
Canada Goose Holdings Inc. announced that an arbitrator has awarded financial compensation to a former vendor due to a contract termination dispute from 2021, resulting in a one-time financial charge of approximately $30 million USD. Despite disagreeing with the award’s legal basis, Canada Goose states this judgment will not impact current vendor relationships or long-term financial strategy, reaffirming its commitment to brand growth and shareholder value.
The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:GOOS) stock is a Sell with a C$11.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Canada Goose Holdings stock, see the TSE:GOOS Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.