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Canada Goose (TSE:GOOS)
:GOOS
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Canada Goose Holdings
(NYSE:GOOS)
Rating:67Neutral
Price Target:―
Positive Factors
Financial Performance
Canada Goose reported an increase in total revenue by 7.4% due to a 6.8% rise in direct-to-consumer comparable sales.
Gross Margin
Gross margin exceeded expectations due to lower inventory provisioning and a higher proportion of direct-to-consumer revenue.
Sales Inflection
GOOS management did call out a positive sales inflection in December, but attributed the inflection to marketing campaigns supporting the Snow Goose and Sea Mantra collections.
Negative Factors
Macroeconomic Uncertainty
The company did not provide guidance due to macroeconomic uncertainty, impacting the outlook for discretionary purchases.
Operating Margin Challenges
As the Canada Goose store base has increased from 11 in FY19 to 68 in FY24, operating margin has decreased 1180bps to 13.1%.
Traffic and Consumer Sentiment
Management attributed slower traffic in China and the UK to 'more difficult consumer sentiment'.
Canada Goose Holdings (GOOS) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$1.52B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)299.51K
Price to Earnings (P/E)16.0
Beta (1Y)1.10
Revenue Growth4.64%
EPS Growth41.68%
CountryCA
Employees4,462
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength59
IndustryApparel - Manufacturers
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.33
Shares Outstanding46,026,210
10 Day Avg. Volume149,224
30 Day Avg. Volume299,508
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.82
Price to Book (P/B)5.82
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00
P/FCF Ratio40.04
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$15.03Price Target Upside-3.80% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Sell
Number of Analyst Covering9
Canada Goose Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionCanada Goose Holdings Inc. designs, manufactures, and sells performance luxury apparel for men, women, youth, children, and babies in Canada, the United States, Asia Pacific, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America. The company operates through three segments: Direct-to-Consumer, Wholesale, and Other. It offers parkas, lightweight down jackets, rainwear, windwear, knitwear, footwear, and accessories for fall, winter, and spring seasons. As of April 3, 2022, the company operated through its 56 national e-commerce markets and 41 directly operated retail stores in North America, Europe, and Asia Pacific. It also sells its products through wholesale partners and distributors. The company was founded in 1957 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.
How the Company Makes MoneyCanada Goose Holdings Inc. generates revenue primarily through the design, manufacturing, and sales of its premium outerwear and apparel. The company's revenue model is largely retail-driven, with significant earnings derived from direct-to-consumer sales through its branded retail stores and e-commerce platforms. Additionally, Canada Goose engages in wholesale distribution, partnering with luxury department stores and specialty retailers around the world. Key revenue streams include the sale of parkas, jackets, knitwear, and accessories, with a focus on expanding its product offerings and market reach. Strategic partnerships, seasonal collections, and collaborations with designers and influencers also contribute to its financial performance.
Canada Goose Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 22, 2025
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: 5.61%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 07, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reflected a mix of positive growth in revenue, gross margin, and direct-to-consumer performance, with significant challenges in wholesale revenue and regional sales in EMEA and China. Inventory management showed positive results, but there was an increase in SG&A costs. The company is cautious due to uncertainties in the global trade environment.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Revenue Growth
Fourth quarter revenue increased by 7% year-over-year, with D2C comparable sales growth of 7%.
Gross Margin Improvement
Gross margin expanded by 620 basis points in Q4 to 71.3% and 69.9% for the full year.
D2C Sales Performance
D2C revenue increased to $314 million, up 12% year-over-year, with North America leading with a 17% comp growth for the quarter.
Inventory Management
Inventory was reduced by 14% year-over-year, with inventory turns reaching 1.0x, up from 0.9x last year.
Marketing Campaign Success
Marketing campaigns such as Sea Mantra and eyewear resulted in a 19% year-over-year increase in global brand search demand.
Adjusted EBIT Growth
Adjusted EBIT for Q4 was $60 million, up 49% year-over-year, with a margin expansion of 430 basis points.
Negative Updates
Wholesale Revenue Decline
Wholesale revenue declined by 18% for the full year, primarily due to strategic order book rationalization and challenging EMEA conditions.
Challenges in EMEA and China
D2C comparable sales growth in EMEA was negative 7% for the full year, and in APAC, it was negative 10%.
SG&A as a Percentage of Revenue
SG&A as a percent of revenue increased by 220 bps year-over-year in Q4 and 130 bps for the full year, indicating challenges in cost management.
Uncertain Global Trade Environment
Decision not to provide financial outlook for fiscal 2026 due to uncertainties in the global trade environment and macroeconomic conditions.
Company Guidance
During the Canada Goose Fourth Quarter Fiscal 2025 Earnings Call, the company reported a strong finish to the fiscal year with a 7% year-over-year increase in revenue, driven by a 7% growth in direct-to-consumer (D2C) comparable sales. Notably, the company saw a 19% year-over-year rise in global brand search demand, particularly boosted by its marketing campaigns for Sea Mantra and eyewear. Inventory management was a key focus, with inventory down year-over-year for six consecutive quarters. In the North American D2C sector, there was a robust 17% sales comp increase for the quarter. The company's gross margin expanded by 620 basis points to 71.3% in Q4, and adjusted EBIT increased by 49% year-over-year to $60 million, with an adjusted EBIT margin of 15.5%. The company also reported a significant improvement in inventory turnover, achieving 1.0x up from 0.9x the previous year. Despite the positive financial results, Canada Goose decided not to provide a financial outlook for fiscal 2026 due to global trade uncertainties, although they emphasized their strategic focus on brand heat, product expansion, and operational efficiency.Canada Goose Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Canada Goose Holdings displays solid financial performance with robust revenue and cash flow growth. Despite some pressure on profit margins and high leverage, the company exhibits operational efficiency and strong cash generation, crucial for funding growth and reducing debt levels.Income Statement
Canada Goose Holdings has shown consistent revenue growth with a current TTM revenue of CAD 1,325 million, up from CAD 1,218 million in the previous period. The gross profit margin remains robust at approximately 63.6%, underscoring strong production efficiency and pricing power. However, the net profit margin has compressed slightly, standing at 5.5% for the TTM, suggesting rising costs or other operational challenges. EBIT and EBITDA margins also reflect stable operational performance at 10.2% and 20.7%, respectively.72
Positive
Balance Sheet
The company's balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio of 1.68, which might imply a higher financial risk due to leverage. Return on equity is moderate at 14.7%, suggesting efficient use of shareholder funds to generate income. The equity ratio is at 28.7%, indicating a reasonable level of asset financing through equity, though there is room for improvement in reducing reliance on debt.65
Positive
Cash Flow
Canada Goose has demonstrated significant growth in free cash flow, with a 97% increase from the previous period, reflecting strong cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is robust at 3.27, indicating strong cash conversion from earnings. The free cash flow to net income ratio is also healthy at 2.93, highlighting efficient capital expenditure management.75
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Mar 2024 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2022 | Mar 2021 | Mar 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.32B | 1.33B | 1.22B | 1.10B | 903.70M | 958.10M |
| Gross Profit | 843.40M | 917.40M | 815.20M | 733.60M | 554.00M | 593.30M |
| EBITDA | 274.20M | 244.30M | 236.50M | 263.70M | 192.10M | 255.20M |
| Net Income | 72.70M | 58.40M | 72.70M | 94.60M | 70.30M | 148.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.72B | 1.48B | 1.59B | 1.34B | 1.51B | 1.11B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 285.20M | 144.90M | 286.50M | 287.70M | 477.90M | 31.70M |
| Total Debt | 831.10M | 728.40M | 754.00M | 620.70M | 622.60M | 386.00M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.21B | 1.06B | 1.11B | 912.70M | 907.10M | 592.50M |
| Stockholders Equity | 494.70M | 417.00M | 469.50M | 427.90M | 600.10M | 520.20M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 213.00M | 108.10M | 68.20M | 114.40M | 261.70M | 200.00K |
| Operating Cash Flow | 237.50M | 164.60M | 116.30M | 151.60M | 293.70M | 62.50M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -28.10M | -72.40M | -45.30M | -37.20M | -32.00M | -62.30M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -85.10M | -232.80M | -80.70M | -298.20M | 197.00M | -58.70M |
Canada Goose Holdings Technical Analysis
Positive
15.62
Price Trends
14.11
Positive
13.52
Positive
14.02
Positive
Market Momentum
0.33
Positive
54.59
Neutral
63.58
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:GOOS, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 15.62 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 15.64, above the 50-day MA of 14.11, and above the 200-day MA of 14.02, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.33 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 54.59 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 63.58 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:GOOS.
Canada Goose Holdings Risk Analysis
Canada Goose Holdings disclosed 49 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Canada Goose Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Canada Goose Holdings Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
67 Neutral | C$1.52B | 15.99 | 19.34% | ― | 4.64% | 41.68% | |
66 Neutral | £1.85B | 11.46 | 6.20% | 2.99% | 0.64% | -17.57% | |
| $7.37B | 18.89 | 24.40% | 1.85% | ― | ― | ||
73 Outperform | C$576.54M | 14.42 | 12.45% | 0.94% | 11.03% | 18.83% | |
61 Neutral | C$122.26M | 30.45 | -19.69% | ― | 2.63% | -3376.73% | |
50 Neutral | C$23.77M | ― | -30.57% | ― | -8.08% | 46.56% | |
| $4.81B | 38.32 | 21.90% | ― | ― | ― |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
TSE:GOOS
Canada Goose Holdings
15.62
-1.90
-10.84%
GIL
Gildan Activewear
48.78
11.75
31.73%
TSE:PBL
Pollard Banknote
21.30
-7.04
-24.84%
TSE:UNI
Unisync
1.25
-0.63
-33.51%
TSE:ROOT
Roots Corporation
3.03
0.95
45.67%
ATZAF
Aritzia
50.40
22.87
83.07%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.