Geodrill (GEO) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$163.03M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 55.48K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.22
• Revenue Growth: 25.76%
• EPS Growth: 15.68%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 52
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Industrial Materials
• EPS (TTM): -0.33
• Shares Outstanding: 47,119,870
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 79,693
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 55,477
• PEG Ratio: 0.79
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.21
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.76
• P/FCF Ratio: -77.96
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.26
• Revenue Forecast (FY): C$182.90M

• Rating: 57 Neutral
• Price Target: C$3.50 ▼(-10.71% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/05/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/05/26

The score is driven primarily by strong balance-sheet resilience, but is held back by the 2025 earnings setback and volatile/free cash flow weakness. Technicals are also soft with the stock below major moving averages, while valuation is constrained by negative earnings. Offsetting these factors, the latest earnings call points to improving 2026 conditions (utilization, pricing, and margin recovery), though currency and tax-related risks remain.

Positive Factors

Strong balance sheet

Low leverage with shareholders' equity of $117M and net cash (ex-ROU) supports financial flexibility. This durable balance-sheet strength lets the company fund incremental rig additions, weather cyclical mining downturns, and continue disciplined buybacks without relying on external debt.

Consistent revenue growth

Sustained top-line growth (record revenue +29% YoY) reflects strong structural demand for contract drilling. Durable revenue expansion improves utilization leverage, supports reinvestment in the fleet, and enhances long-term contract credibility with customers across multiple jurisdictions.

Fleet scale and contract visibility

A 100-rig fleet and rapid South America expansion (Chile ~100% utilized, multiyear accounts) provide durable operational scale and revenue visibility. Scale improves fixed-cost absorption and bidding competitiveness, enabling more predictable utilization and supporting margin recovery as markets normalize.

Negative Factors

Margin compression

A ~6pp drop in gross margin signals structural pressure from cost inflation, adverse mix and ramp-up inefficiencies. Persistent margin compression erodes operating leverage and return on invested capital, making profitability more sensitive to pricing, input costs, and regional operational execution challenges.

Inconsistent free cash flow

Variable free cash flow, despite positive operating cash flow, shows capex and working-capital swings tied to fleet expansion. Unreliable FCF limits the company's ability to self-fund growth, sustain buybacks, or absorb shocks, increasing dependence on maintaining strong balance-sheet buffers.

Tax settlement cash burden

An $8.4M tax settlement payable via monthly installments creates a sustained cash outflow and outcome uncertainty. This reduces available cash for reinvestment and increases short-term liquidity pressure, complicating capital allocation and weakening resilience against operational or currency shocks.

Geodrill Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Geodrill Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides mineral exploration drilling services to mining companies in West Africa, Zambia, and Peru. It offers reverse circulation, core, air-core, deep directional, reverse circulation grade control, water borehole, underground, mine blast hole, and horizontal drilling services. The company operates a fleet of multi-purpose, core, air-core, grade control, and underground drill rigs; boosters and auxiliary compressors; and various support vehicles, such as pick-up, MAN, and other trucks, as well as purpose-built crawler-mounted support vehicles and bell tractors. As of December 31, 2021, it operated a fleet of 71 drill rigs. Geodrill Limited was incorporated in 1998 and is headquartered in Douglas, Isle of Man.

How the Company Makes Money

Geodrill generates revenue primarily through its drilling services, which are contracted by mining companies for exploration and resource definition projects. The company's key revenue streams come from various types of drilling contracts, including fixed-price contracts and time-and-materials contracts, depending on the specific needs of their clients. Additionally, Geodrill maintains significant partnerships with major mining companies, which helps secure ongoing projects and stabilize revenue. The company also benefits from a diverse client base across multiple countries, mitigating risks associated with economic fluctuations in any single market. Investments in advanced drilling technology and equipment enhance operational efficiency and service quality, further contributing to its profitability.

Geodrill Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Balance sheet strength is a major positive (low leverage and substantial equity), but the 2025 profitability reversal (net loss) and inconsistent free cash flow, including negative FCF in 2025, reduce overall financial quality despite continued revenue growth.

Income Statement

Revenue has grown steadily from 2023 to 2025 (with a strong step-up in 2024 and continued growth in 2025), but profitability weakened materially in 2025: net income turned slightly negative and both gross and EBITDA margins compressed versus 2024. The company still generated positive EBIT in 2025, suggesting the core business remains profitable, but the sharp drop from 2024’s healthy net margin to a small loss raises questions around cost pressure, pricing, or below-the-line items.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is a clear strength: leverage is low across the period, with debt-to-equity remaining modest even after the 2025 debt increase, and equity representing a substantial portion of the capital base. Asset growth and consistently high equity levels provide financial flexibility, though the negative return on equity in 2025 reflects the earnings setback rather than balance-sheet stress.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow has generally been positive and remained solid in 2025, but free cash flow is inconsistent, swinging between positive and negative and turning negative again in 2025. The sharp decline in free cash flow in 2025 alongside a net loss suggests cash generation is being pressured by investment needs or working-capital swings, and overall cash conversion appears less reliable than the income statement would ideally indicate.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	188.15M	143.05M	130.54M	138.63M	115.21M
Gross Profit	33.19M	34.68M	30.59M	40.58M	30.10M
EBITDA	31.22M	31.16M	20.56M	38.35M	29.45M
Net Income	-1.55M	9.26M	3.90M	18.92M	14.14M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	176.28M	161.49M	148.61M	141.23M	116.56M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	18.93M	19.52M	15.81M	15.11M	13.53M
Total Debt	10.26M	3.45M	978.29K	5.82M	7.61M
Total Liabilities	59.08M	41.97M	38.65M	34.17M	29.03M
Stockholders Equity	117.90M	119.88M	110.12M	107.07M	87.55M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-1.82M	372.49K	-4.28M	8.40M	150.12K
Operating Cash Flow	16.40M	21.05M	11.00M	25.29M	14.78M
Investing Cash Flow	-18.22M	-20.68M	-15.28M	-16.88M	-14.63M
Financing Cash Flow	-2.83M	-2.35M	5.39M	-2.85M	2.83M

Geodrill Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 3.92
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:GEO, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 3.92 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.53, above the 50-day MA of 3.69, and above the 200-day MA of 3.62, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.07 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 45.29 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 46.72 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:GEO.

Geodrill Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
OGD	64 Neutral	C$75.87M	10.45	6.47%	―	1.04%	107.55%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
FAR	61 Neutral	C$279.81M	10.86	16.77%	―	-17.73%	-36.29%
GMX	61 Neutral	C$153.46M	4.70	15.34%	―	-73.34%	16.21%
GEO	57 Neutral	C$163.03M	-91.55	-1.34%	―	25.76%	15.68%
LIS	52 Neutral	C$61.19M	-7.47	-35.75%	―	―	31.55%
AGX	50 Neutral	C$245.81M	-59.63	-6.09%	―	8.28%	87.46%

Geodrill Corporate Events

Geodrill Delivers Record 2025 Revenue but Books Loss Amid Tax Hit and Margin Pressure

Geodrill reported record 2025 revenue of $184.9 million, up 29% year over year, driven by robust drilling activity in West Africa and expanding operations in other regions, but swung to a net loss of $1.9 million after an $8.4 million additional tax expense and margin pressure from currency, cost inflation and ramp-up spending. Despite lower margins and short-term profitability challenges, the company ended the year with net cash of $7.8 million, repurchased shares, and secured $150 million of multi-year contracts, positioning it for sustained revenue visibility and growth as strong gold and copper prices support high exploration spending and further expansion in Africa and Chile.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:GEO) stock is a Hold with a C$4.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Geodrill stock, see the TSE:GEO Stock Forecast page.

Geodrill Sets March 2 Date to Release 2025 Year-End Results and Host Investor Call

Geodrill Limited has announced it will publish its financial results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025, before markets open on March 2, 2026, followed by a management-hosted conference call and webcast to discuss the performance. The planned disclosure and investor call underscore the company’s ongoing efforts to engage the market and its stakeholders as it consolidates its leading drilling position in West Africa and pursues international expansion, particularly into South America.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:GEO) stock is a Hold with a C$4.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Geodrill stock, see the TSE:GEO Stock Forecast page.

Geodrill Strikes Tax Settlement With Côte d’Ivoire to Safeguard Operations

Geodrill Limited has entered into a memorandum of understanding with Côte d’Ivoire’s tax authorities to resolve a previously disclosed tax recovery dispute that had prompted measures aimed at restricting the company’s operations in the country. Under the settlement, Geodrill will pay CFA 4.71 billion (US$8.4 million) in monthly instalments starting January 2026, while the authorities have waived related penalties of CFA 4.99 billion (US$8.9 million); the company will record the settlement as an additional income tax charge, increasing its 2025 annual and fourth-quarter tax expense and weighing on net income and earnings per share, but enabling continued operations in a key West African market.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:GEO) stock is a Hold with a C$4.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Geodrill stock, see the TSE:GEO Stock Forecast page.