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First Capital Realty (TSE:FCR.UN)
TSX:FCR.UN
Canadian Market

First Capital Realty (FCR.UN) AI Stock Analysis

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First Capital Realty

(TSX:FCR.UN)

Rating:76Outperform
Price Target:
First Capital Realty exhibits solid financial fundamentals with strengths in profitability and cash flow management. Technical indicators support stock strength, and the company's fair valuation and attractive dividend yield enhance investment appeal. The positive earnings call reinforces operational efficiency and strategic progress, though macroeconomic uncertainties and revenue growth challenges present risks. Overall, the stock is positioned well for stability and potential growth.
Positive Factors
Asset Management
The REIT's asset sales strategy focuses on non-core properties, achieving a sale price 25% above the IFRS value for a Montreal site.
Leasing Activity
Leasing activity remains strong, and the runway for rent growth is long.
Operational Performance
Operating performance improves with double-digit leasing spreads and improvement in same-property occupancy driving strong internal growth of 5.3%.
Negative Factors
Business Plan Execution
Failure to execute on the three-year business plan is the primary risk.
Economic Outlook
The near-term economic outlook has become increasingly uncertain due to lower immigration targets and the threat of a protracted trade dispute with the U.S.
Interest Expenses
Interest expense rose due to refinancing debt maturities at higher interest rates, increasing FCR's weighted average interest rate.

First Capital Realty (FCR.UN) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

First Capital Realty Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionFirst Capital is a leading developer, owner and manager of mixed-use real estate located in Canada's most densely populated cities. First Capital's focus is on creating thriving urban neighbourhoods to generate value for businesses, residents, communities and our investors.
How the Company Makes MoneyFirst Capital Realty generates revenue primarily through the leasing and management of its retail-centered real estate properties. The company earns income from leasing space to a variety of tenants, including national retailers, local businesses, and service providers, ensuring a diversified and stable revenue stream. Additionally, First Capital Realty engages in strategic property development and redevelopment projects that enhance property values and increase rental income. The company also benefits from property appreciation and potential capital gains on asset sales. Key partnerships with retailers and other stakeholders contribute to the successful execution of its development strategies and long-term revenue growth.

First Capital Realty Financial Statement Overview

Summary
First Capital Realty shows a moderate level of profitability and stability. The income statement reveals a strong gross profit margin of 62.91%, but inconsistent revenue growth. The balance sheet indicates a solid equity base with a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.02, though asset utilization could be improved. Cash flow generation is robust, with a strong operating cash flow to net income ratio of 1.09, despite fluctuations in free cash flow growth.
Income Statement
72
Positive
The company's income statement shows a moderate level of profitability and stability. The gross profit margin for TTM is a healthy 62.91%, indicating strong cost control and efficient operations. However, the net profit margin has improved to 29.68% from a negative position in 2023, reflecting significant recovery but also recent volatility. Revenue growth is inconsistent, with a slight increase from the previous year, indicating challenges in consistent revenue generation.
Balance Sheet
68
Positive
The balance sheet reveals a solid equity base with a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.02, suggesting a balanced approach to leveraging. The return on equity for TTM is 5.39%, indicating moderate profitability relative to shareholder equity. However, the equity ratio of 43.37% shows a stable financial structure, though there is room for improvement in asset utilization efficiency.
Cash Flow
75
Positive
The cash flow statement indicates robust cash generation capabilities. The free cash flow growth rate is slightly negative at -0.96% in the latest period, but the operating cash flow to net income ratio is 1.09, indicating strong cash flow relative to net earnings. The free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.51 further supports a solid cash position, despite some fluctuations in free cash flow growth.
Breakdown
TTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
722.73M713.52M755.87M693.10M674.89M672.89M
Gross Profit
454.52M447.29M493.14M425.50M412.54M399.03M
EBIT
400.84M388.25M445.48M399.26M367.65M383.41M
EBITDA
454.57M386.27M445.48M3.15M373.67M389.00M
Net Income Common Stockholders
214.56M204.93M-134.06M-159.76M460.13M7.48M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
82.93M153.54M90.22M36.03M74.06M104.16M
Total Assets
9.64B9.18B9.19B9.58B10.11B10.03B
Total Debt
4.24B4.05B4.09B4.14B4.43B4.79B
Net Debt
4.16B3.90B4.00B4.11B4.40B4.69B
Total Liabilities
5.32B5.17B5.19B5.25B5.44B5.78B
Stockholders Equity
4.27B3.95B3.93B4.28B4.62B4.23B
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
108.97M110.02M84.71M126.21M96.09M14.47M
Operating Cash Flow
233.50M233.79M227.73M251.22M249.61M219.50M
Investing Cash Flow
-33.00K33.38M83.69M133.98M154.89M10.23M
Financing Cash Flow
-254.41M-204.30M-256.70M-387.21M-470.25M-154.79M

First Capital Realty Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price17.09
Price Trends
50DMA
16.60
Positive
100DMA
16.58
Positive
200DMA
16.87
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.20
Positive
RSI
54.18
Neutral
STOCH
47.31
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:FCR.UN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 17.09 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 17.07, above the 50-day MA of 16.60, and above the 200-day MA of 16.87, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.20 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 54.18 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 47.31 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:FCR.UN.

First Capital Realty Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
76
Outperform
C$3.71B17.305.40%5.08%3.11%
60
Neutral
$2.82B10.380.33%8508.19%5.98%-17.49%
$3.78B20.003.61%6.32%
82
Outperform
C$3.69B8.3111.23%5.96%4.54%68.32%
78
Outperform
C$4.37B18.554.75%7.22%10.06%-19.26%
73
Outperform
C$3.16B13.554.92%6.50%6.68%14.72%
69
Neutral
C$2.69B-0.49%6.13%6.96%85.15%
* Real Estate Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE:FCR.UN
First Capital Realty
17.09
2.51
17.22%
RIOCF
RioCan Real Estate Investment
12.27
0.09
0.74%
TSE:CRR.UN
Crombie Real Estate ate
14.44
2.31
19.04%
TSE:CRT.UN
CT Real Estate Investment
15.38
2.63
20.63%
TSE:DIR.UN
Dream Industrl REIT
10.49
-1.62
-13.38%
TSE:SRU.UN
SmartCentres Real Estate Investment Trust
25.36
4.10
19.29%

First Capital Realty Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 06, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: -0.41%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 05, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a strong operational performance with record-high occupancy and robust leasing activity. However, the reduced disposition targets and macroeconomic uncertainty present challenges. The company's development target increase and consistent demand for leasing offer positive signs, but the external economic environment poses potential risks.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record High Occupancy
Q1 occupancy matched an all-time high of 96.9%, which was last set in Q4 of 2019. Rents in place are notably higher today than they were then.
Strong Leasing Activity
Over 500,000 square feet were renewed with a year one renewal rent increase of 13.6%, above the long-term average. Additionally, new leasing covered about 90,000 square feet across 42 spaces, achieving an average year one rent of approximately $32 per square foot.
Development Completion Target Increased
Development completions are now expected to be $300 million over the three-year plan versus $200 million previously, indicating progress ahead of initial expectations.
Same Property NOI Growth
Same property cash NOI grew by 5.3%, driven primarily by higher rents, exceeding internal business plan expectations.
Positive Leasing Market Outlook
Continued strong demand and leasing activity with no signs of slowdown despite macroeconomic uncertainties.
Negative Updates
Reduced Disposition Targets
Dispositions target lowered to $750 million over three years from the initial $1 billion due to increased macroeconomic uncertainty.
Year-over-Year FFO Decline
Operating FFO per unit fell to $0.321 from $0.365 in Q1 2024, though adjustments for non-recurring items show a 9% growth.
Market Uncertainty
The macroeconomic environment has become more uncertain and volatile, impacting disposition timing and potentially affecting future operations.
Company Guidance
During the Q1 2025 Conference Call, the guidance provided highlighted several key metrics. The REIT's same-property cash NOI grew by 5.3% before lease termination fees and bad debt, driven by higher rents. Occupancy reached an all-time high of 96.9%, with average net rent hitting a record $24.23 per square foot. Renewal rental rates in year one of the renewal term averaged $24.91 per square foot, marking a 13.6% increase, with 74% of renewed leases including rent escalations. The REIT is on track to meet its three-year strategic plan goals, which include at least 3% growth in operating FFO per unit and achieving a net debt-to-adjusted EBITDA ratio in the low 8 times range by 2026. Development completions are expected to total $300 million, while dispositions are revised to $750 million over the three-year period. Operating FFO per unit grew approximately 5%, and debt-to-EBITDA improved to 8.9 times. The REIT remains confident in strong leasing activity and a positive outlook amid macroeconomic uncertainties.

First Capital Realty Corporate Events

Dividends
First Capital REIT Declares May 2025 Cash Distribution
Positive
May 15, 2025

First Capital REIT announced a cash distribution of $0.074167 per REIT unit for May, amounting to $0.89 per unit annually. This distribution, payable on June 16, 2025, reflects the company’s ongoing commitment to providing returns to its unitholders, reinforcing its position in the Canadian real estate market.

The most recent analyst rating on ($TSE:FCR.UN) stock is a Hold with a C$17.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on First Capital Realty stock, see the TSE:FCR.UN Stock Forecast page.

Spark’s Take on TSE:FCR.UN Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, TSE:FCR.UN is a Outperform.

First Capital Realty is performing well operationally with strong cash flow management and efficient leasing activities. However, challenges with revenue growth, net income stability, and increasing leverage are key risks. The solid dividend yield and fair valuation enhance its investment appeal, while the positive technical indicators suggest continued stock strength. Despite macroeconomic uncertainties, the company’s strategic initiatives and high occupancy rates provide a favorable outlook.

To see Spark’s full report on TSE:FCR.UN stock, click here.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
First Capital Reports Strong Q1 2025 Results Amid Robust Leasing
Positive
May 6, 2025

First Capital reported strong financial results for the first quarter of 2025, driven by robust leasing activity and strategic capital allocation. The company achieved a total portfolio occupancy of 96.9%, matching its all-time high, and reported a 5.3% growth in Same Property NOI, excluding certain expenses. Despite a decrease in Operating FFO per unit due to a prior year’s assignment fee, First Capital’s fundamentals remain strong, supporting stability and growth in cash flow.

Spark’s Take on TSE:FCR.UN Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, TSE:FCR.UN is a Outperform.

First Capital Realty exhibits solid operational efficiency and cash flow management, supported by strategic initiatives that enhance growth in OFFO. The fair valuation and attractive dividend yield add to its appeal. However, challenges with revenue growth, net income stability, and debt levels present risks, tempering the overall score.

To see Spark’s full report on TSE:FCR.UN stock, click here.

Dividends
First Capital REIT Declares April 2025 Cash Distribution
Positive
Apr 15, 2025

First Capital REIT announced a cash distribution of $0.074167 per REIT unit for April, equating to $0.89 annually. This distribution, payable on May 15, 2025, reflects the company’s ongoing commitment to providing returns to its unitholders, reinforcing its stable position in the Canadian real estate market.

Spark’s Take on TSE:FCR.UN Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, TSE:FCR.UN is a Outperform.

First Capital Realty’s stock is supported by strong operational efficiency, strategic initiatives leading to growth in OFFO, and a fair valuation with an attractive dividend yield. However, challenges with revenue growth, net income stability, and the disposition market present risks that temper the overall outlook.

To see Spark’s full report on TSE:FCR.UN stock, click here.

Financial Disclosures
First Capital REIT Schedules Q1 2025 Results Conference Call
Neutral
Apr 7, 2025

First Capital REIT announced that it will hold a live conference call on May 7, 2025, to discuss its financial results for the first quarter ending March 31, 2025. The financial statements and management’s discussion and analysis will be available on their website and the Canadian Securities Administrators’ website prior to the call. This announcement highlights the company’s commitment to transparency and engagement with stakeholders, providing insights into its financial performance and strategic direction.

Spark’s Take on TSE:FCR.UN Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, TSE:FCR.UN is a Outperform.

First Capital Realty’s stock is supported by strong operational efficiency, strategic initiatives leading to growth in OFFO, and a fair valuation with an attractive dividend yield. However, challenges with revenue growth, net income stability, and the disposition market present risks that temper the overall outlook.

To see Spark’s full report on TSE:FCR.UN stock, click here.

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder MeetingsBusiness Operations and Strategy
First Capital REIT Elects Trustees, Reinforces Governance
Positive
Apr 1, 2025

First Capital REIT announced the successful election of all ten nominated trustees during its annual meeting of unitholders, with a significant representation of 81.59% of the trust’s issued and outstanding units. This election reaffirms the company’s governance stability and supports its strategic focus on maintaining a strong presence in prime Canadian neighborhoods, potentially benefiting stakeholders through sustained operational and market positioning strength.

Dividends
First Capital REIT Declares March 2025 Cash Distribution
Positive
Mar 17, 2025

First Capital REIT announced a cash distribution of $0.074167 per REIT unit for March, amounting to $0.89 annually. This distribution, payable on April 15, 2025, reflects the company’s ongoing commitment to providing returns to its unitholders, reinforcing its stable financial operations and strong market positioning.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.