Canadian Tire Corp Ltd (TSE:CTC)
TSX:CTC
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Canadian Tire
(TSX:CTC)
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Rating:55Neutral
Price Target:
C$209.00
â–²(2.29% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/26/26
The score is held back primarily by weakening financial quality (higher leverage and materially weaker 2025 cash flow/cash conversion) and bearish technical conditions (price below key moving averages with negative momentum). These are partially offset by reasonable valuation (mid-teens P/E and ~3.5% yield) and a constructive earnings-call outlook emphasizing margin expansion, cost savings, and ongoing share repurchases despite near-term execution and comparison risks.
Positive Factors
Loyalty ecosystem growth
Rising Triangle membership and ~$300M of incremental sales from personalized offers indicate durable customer retention and cross‑banner spending. A larger linked loyalty base increases frequency, card usage and lifetime value, supporting recurring retail and financial-services revenue beyond short cycles.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage
Higher leverage reduces financial flexibility and raises vulnerability to retail slowdowns or higher funding costs. With debt materially up and equity down, the company faces greater constraint on capital allocation and less buffer to absorb earnings or cash-flow shocks over the coming quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Loyalty ecosystem growth
Rising Triangle membership and ~$300M of incremental sales from personalized offers indicate durable customer retention and cross‑banner spending. A larger linked loyalty base increases frequency, card usage and lifetime value, supporting recurring retail and financial-services revenue beyond short cycles.
Read all positive factors
Canadian Tire (CTC) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$9.74B
Dividend Yield3.17%
Average Volume (3M)195.00
Price to Earnings (P/E)16.3
Beta (1Y)0.30
Revenue Growth-0.13%
EPS Growth13.73%
CountryCA
Employees13,973
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustrySpecialty Retail
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)4.47
Shares Outstanding3,423,366
10 Day Avg. Volume304
30 Day Avg. Volume195
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.49
Price to Book (P/B)1.61
Price to Sales (P/S)0.58
P/FCF Ratio25.51
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$193.00Price Target Upside-5.54% Downside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)14.35
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$16.48B
Canadian Tire Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Canadian Tire Corporation, Limited provides a range of retail goods and services in Canada. It operates in three segments: Retail, CT REIT, and Financial Services. The Retail segment retails automotive maintenance products and accessories, parts, ...
How the Company Makes Money
CTC primarily makes money by selling goods and services through its retail banners and by earning interest and fees through its financial services operations. (1) Retail merchandise sales: The largest revenue stream is the sale of branded and priv...
Canadian Tire Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 19, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 07, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a clearly positive operational and financial story: strong 2025 sales, margin expansion, sizeable profit and EPS growth, loyalty and partnership momentum, meaningful cost savings and aggressive share repurchases. Management also highlighted strategic investments (AI/MOSaiC, store concepts) and reiterated long-term targets. Key risks include the 53rd-week distortion, inventory builds at corporate and dealer levels, category-specific underperformance (CTR Living and discretionary categories), OpEx and bank investment pressures in early 2026, and near-term volatility from weather and lapping patriotic purchasing. Overall, the positive operating and financial progress materially outweighs the discrete challenges flagged, but investors should be mindful of the one-time calendar effect and near-term execution/investment pressures.Positive Updates
Full-Year Revenue and Profit Growth
Fiscal 2025 retail sales and revenue were up 5% (includes extra week); annual comparable retail sales up 4%. Profitability grew 14% and EPS increased 19% to $13.77.
Negative Updates
Impact of the Extra (53rd) Week
The 53rd retail week in 2025 materially boosted results: an estimated $287 million of retail sales (ex Petroleum) and ~ $40 million of IBT. This extra week complicates year-over-year comparisons and inflates some growth rates.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Full-Year Revenue and Profit Growth
Fiscal 2025 retail sales and revenue were up 5% (includes extra week); annual comparable retail sales up 4%. Profitability grew 14% and EPS increased 19% to $13.77.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company gave directional guidance rather than hard annual guidance, saying True North should drive long‑term retail sales growth of 3%–5% with earnings growing faster than sales, and reaffirming a North Star retail gross margin target of 35%+, while noting DaiVID rollout to SportChek/Mark’s in late 2026 and MOSaiC commercialization in H2‑2026. For 2026 financials they expect operating CapEx of $500–$550M (2025 OpEx was $502M), will continue share repurchases (2025 repurchases >$440M, ~5% fewer shares), and reiterated restructuring savings of $100M versus 2024 (with $30M realized in Q4). Near‑term commentary: Q1 momentum is positive but comps and weather are tough, CTFS should see less profitability headwind than 2025 though H1 SG&A pressure from investments is expected; key metrics from the call to model include the 53rd‑week impact of ~$287M retail sales (ex‑Petroleum) and ~$40M IBT, Triangle members ~9.8M (active members +6%), personalized offers driving ~$300M incremental sales, Q4 normalized retail GM rate (ex‑Petroleum) 35.4% (+118 bps), normalized retail EBITDA $557M, retail IBT $242M, CTFS receivable $7.7B with allowance 12%, PD2+ 3.5% and net write‑off 7.2%.Canadian Tire Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
48
Neutral
Cash Flow
45
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 16.32B | 16.36B | 16.66B | 17.81B | 16.29B |
| Gross Profit | 5.39B | 5.63B | 5.70B | 5.74B | 5.48B |
| EBITDA | 2.17B | 1.65B | 1.64B | 2.22B | 2.23B |
| Net Income | 578.50M | 887.70M | 213.30M | 1.04B | 1.13B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 21.54B | 22.24B | 21.98B | 22.10B | 21.80B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 702.00M | 575.90M | 488.40M | 490.10M | 2.34B |
| Total Debt | 9.76B | 7.91B | 8.81B | 7.72B | 7.09B |
| Total Liabilities | 14.73B | 15.15B | 15.53B | 15.06B | 15.29B |
| Stockholders Equity | 5.86B | 6.16B | 5.55B | 5.62B | 5.12B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 370.10M | 1.49B | 772.80M | -146.00M | 1.11B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 952.10M | 2.06B | 1.35B | 466.50M | 1.74B |
| Investing Cash Flow | 638.80M | -264.10M | -747.80M | -230.40M | -658.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.51B | -1.64B | -621.00M | -1.66B | -653.40M |
Canadian Tire Technical Analysis
Negative
204.32
Price Trends
216.24
Negative
223.79
Negative
237.38
Negative
Market Momentum
-1.92
Positive
39.66
Neutral
21.21
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:CTC, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 204.32 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 216.59, below the 50-day MA of 216.24, and below the 200-day MA of 237.38, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.92 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 39.66 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 21.21 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:CTC.
Canadian Tire Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
67 Neutral | C$1.77B | 12.20 | 13.08% | 3.11% | 1.99% | 31.36% | |
66 Neutral | C$401.57M | 10.16 | 5.49% | 2.80% | 7.20% | -33.22% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
57 Neutral | C$1.47B | 19.75 | 106.59% | 1.72% | 5.09% | 14.05% | |
55 Neutral | C$9.74B | 16.32 | 13.16% | 3.17% | -0.13% | 13.73% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
TSE:CTC
Canadian Tire
204.32
-1.95
-0.95%
TSE:GBT
BMTC Group Inc.
12.61
0.81
6.86%
TSE:LNF
Leon's Furniture
25.75
3.43
15.36%
TSE:PET
Pet Valu Holdings Ltd.
21.39
-3.72
-14.80%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.