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Canadian Tire
(TSX:CTC)
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Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:
C$221.00
▲(0.91% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:06/14/26
The score is driven primarily by steady-but-muted financial performance: flat revenue, compressed net margins, and still-elevated leverage, partially offset by improved TTM free cash flow. Technical indicators are a notable headwind as the stock sits below major moving averages with negative MACD, while valuation is a modest positive supported by a reasonable P/E and a ~3.4% dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Loyalty-driven ecosystem
Integrated loyalty (Triangle Rewards) and co-branded payment products create durable customer stickiness, increasing visit frequency, basket size and card balances. This cross-segment integration supports recurring interchange and interest income while reinforcing retail demand over months.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage
Debt-to-equity near 1.34x remains high for a retailer; although improved, leverage amplifies sensitivity to earnings volatility and rising funding costs. Elevated debt limits strategic flexibility, constrains capital allocation, and increases downside risk if retail earnings slip.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Loyalty-driven ecosystem
Integrated loyalty (Triangle Rewards) and co-branded payment products create durable customer stickiness, increasing visit frequency, basket size and card balances. This cross-segment integration supports recurring interchange and interest income while reinforcing retail demand over months.
Read all positive factors
Canadian Tire (CTC) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$10.50B
Dividend Yield3.36%
Average Volume (3M)195.00
Price to Earnings (P/E)17.8
Beta (1Y)0.37
Revenue Growth1.05%
EPS Growth-6.66%
CountryCA
Employees13,973
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustrySpecialty Retail
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)11.20
Shares Outstanding3,423,366
10 Day Avg. Volume304
30 Day Avg. Volume195
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.49
Price to Book (P/B)1.61
Price to Sales (P/S)0.58
P/FCF Ratio25.51
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$209.50Price Target Upside-4.34% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)14.52
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$16.60B
Canadian Tire Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Canadian Tire Corporation, Limited serves the Canadian market with a diverse portfolio of retail goods and consumer services. The company's operations are divided into three primary segments: Retail, CT REIT, and Financial Services. The Retail seg...
How the Company Makes Money
CTC primarily makes money through (1) retail and (2) financial services, supported by loyalty-driven customer engagement.
1) Retail revenue (merchandise sales): The largest source of revenue is the sale of goods through its retail banners and cha...
Canadian Tire Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 13, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a net-positive picture: strong headline metrics (EPS +10%), banner-level momentum (SportChek and Mark's), robust eCommerce growth and margin improvement offset weather-driven softness at Canadian Tire Retail and some timing/investment-related pressure on SG&A and inventory. Management emphasized strategic progress — AI pricing, MOSaiC customer intelligence, digital harmonization, loyalty expansion — and maintained confidence in full-year margin targets and a path to long-term growth. Short-term operational challenges (weather, dealer restocking, elevated bank SG&A and receivable dynamics) were acknowledged but framed as manageable and largely timing or environment-driven.Positive Updates
Earnings per Share Growth
Diluted normalized EPS of $3.94, up 10% year-over-year, driven by higher Retail IBT, a lower share count and a favorable blended tax rate.
Negative Updates
Canadian Tire (CTR) Weather-Driven Weakness
CTR comparable sales declined 0.8% year-over-year in Q2 (but were +5.5% on a 2-year stack); management attributed declines to unusually wet spring/summer with major outdoor categories (e.g., Gardening, summer climate control) driving more than 100% of the sales challenge.
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Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Earnings per Share Growth
Diluted normalized EPS of $3.94, up 10% year-over-year, driven by higher Retail IBT, a lower share count and a favorable blended tax rate.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Guidance and outlook highlighted a full‑year retail gross margin “North Star” target of 35%+ (Q2 margin excl. Petroleum 35.1%, +33 bps y/y) while expecting some Q3 headwinds from higher transportation fuel surcharges and targeted investments; CapEx is now guided to $450–$500 million in 2026 with 30 store refresh projects completed in H1 and the pipeline to more than double by year‑end (modestly below an original 70‑project plan); the company expects eCommerce to continue to significantly outpace bricks‑and‑mortar (eCom comps +12% YTD, CTR eCom +14%), plans to lean into digital and loyalty (Triangle sales +3.5%, >2 million active loyalty members, CT Money issuance rising) and to keep investing in bank‑related growth (CTFS GAAR +4.2%) even as CTFS SG&A is expected to run at ~28% through H2; other Q2 metrics to anchor models include diluted normalized EPS $3.94 (+10% y/y), consolidated comparable sales +0.7% (SportChek +8%, Mark’s +4.2%, CTR -0.8% / 2‑yr stack +5.5%), retail revenue -1.1% (retail sales excl. Petroleum +2.5%), Retail IBT $201M (+1.2%), normalized retail EBITDA $498M (+2.2%), Retail ROIC 11.1% (+80 bps), corporate inventory +7% (CTR dealer inventory +1%), allowance $935M (allowance rate 11.8%), aging 3.3% and net write‑off ~7.2%, plus ongoing buybacks ($85M repurchased in Q2).Canadian Tire Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
57
Neutral
Cash Flow
66
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 16.43B | 16.32B | 16.36B | 16.66B | 17.81B | 16.29B |
| Gross Profit | 5.41B | 5.39B | 5.63B | 5.70B | 5.74B | 5.48B |
| EBITDA | 2.04B | 1.97B | 1.65B | 1.64B | 2.22B | 2.23B |
| Net Income | 599.20M | 578.50M | 887.70M | 213.30M | 1.04B | 1.13B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 21.84B | 21.54B | 22.24B | 21.98B | 22.10B | 21.80B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 494.50M | 702.00M | 575.90M | 488.40M | 490.10M | 2.34B |
| Total Debt | 7.79B | 9.76B | 7.91B | 8.81B | 7.72B | 7.09B |
| Total Liabilities | 15.04B | 14.73B | 15.15B | 15.53B | 15.06B | 15.29B |
| Stockholders Equity | 5.83B | 5.86B | 6.16B | 5.55B | 5.62B | 5.12B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 718.70M | 370.10M | 1.49B | 772.80M | -146.00M | 1.11B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.29B | 952.10M | 2.06B | 1.35B | 466.50M | 1.74B |
| Investing Cash Flow | 749.90M | 638.80M | -264.10M | -747.80M | -230.40M | -658.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -2.09B | -1.51B | -1.64B | -621.00M | -1.66B | -653.40M |
Canadian Tire Technical Analysis
Negative
219.00
Price Trends
213.49
Positive
214.64
Positive
218.03
Negative
Market Momentum
1.90
Positive
48.56
Neutral
49.29
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:CTC, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 219 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 217.96, above the 50-day MA of 213.49, and above the 200-day MA of 218.03, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 1.90 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 48.56 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 49.29 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:CTC.
Canadian Tire Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
67 Neutral | C$1.72B | 10.80 | 12.76% | 6.12% | -0.15% | -2.29% | |
66 Neutral | C$401.49M | 9.16 | 7.97% | 2.85% | -0.75% | 52.17% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
61 Neutral | C$1.37B | 13.66 | 117.77% | 2.67% | 5.62% | 7.18% | |
60 Neutral | C$10.50B | 17.80 | 10.24% | 3.26% | 1.05% | -6.66% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
TSE:CTC
Canadian Tire
213.36
-18.30
-7.90%
TSE:GBT
BMTC Group Inc.
12.76
-0.24
-1.85%
TSE:LNF
Leon's Furniture
24.83
-3.26
-11.60%
TSE:PET
Pet Valu Holdings Ltd.
19.80
-16.94
-46.11%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.