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Canadian Tire
(TSX:CTC.A)
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Rating:62Neutral
Price Target:
C$198.00
▲(1.75% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:06/14/26
Overall score reflects fair-to-good financial performance with improving free cash flow but meaningful leverage and thin/volatile margins as key constraints. Technicals are constructive (price above major moving averages) but near-term momentum is slightly soft (negative MACD). Valuation is supportive with a moderate P/E and a solid dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Diversified revenue streams
A three-pronged revenue model (retail, petroleum, financial services) creates structural resilience versus single-channel peers. Retail sales, fuel volumes and credit-card/net interest income diversify cash flows and lower reliance on any one cycle, supporting steadier earnings over months.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage
Meaningful leverage reduces financial flexibility and heightens interest-rate and downturn sensitivity. For a retailer with cyclical sales, mid-1x debt-to-equity limits rapid deleveraging, constrains capacity for opportunistic investments and raises refinancing risk over the next several quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Diversified revenue streams
A three-pronged revenue model (retail, petroleum, financial services) creates structural resilience versus single-channel peers. Retail sales, fuel volumes and credit-card/net interest income diversify cash flows and lower reliance on any one cycle, supporting steadier earnings over months.
Read all positive factors
Canadian Tire (CTC.A) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$10.06B
Dividend Yield4.1%
Average Volume (3M)289.86K
Price to Earnings (P/E)17.1
Beta (1Y)0.62
Revenue Growth0.86%
EPS Growth-26.59%
CountryCA
Employees13,973
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustrySpecialty Retail
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)11.20
Shares Outstanding48,965,690
10 Day Avg. Volume300,543
30 Day Avg. Volume289,864
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.49
Price to Book (P/B)1.61
Price to Sales (P/S)0.58
P/FCF Ratio25.51
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$206.50Price Target Upside6.12% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)14.55
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$16.63B
Canadian Tire Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Canadian Tire Corporation, Limited is a Canadian enterprise that delivers a wide spectrum of retail products and related services. Its operations are structured into three distinct divisions: Retail, CT REIT, and Financial Services. The Retail arm...
How the Company Makes Money
Canadian Tire makes money primarily through (1) retail merchandise sales, (2) petroleum fuel sales, and (3) financial services income. Retail: The largest revenue driver is selling products across its banners in stores and online; revenue is recog...
Canadian Tire Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 19, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 13, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a majority of positive operational and financial developments: healthy sales growth, strong margin expansion, substantial EPS and IBT gains, meaningful loyalty and partnership traction, disciplined capital allocation and clear strategic investments (AI/MOSaiC, store refreshes). The principal cautions relate to a 53rd week that materially boosted results, elevated inventory, bank-level investment pressures and some banner/category-specific softness (CTR living, discretionary). Management articulated concrete plans to sustain momentum (loyalty, partnerships, DaiVID rollout, MOSaiC commercialization) and quantified savings and capital priorities. On balance, the highlights are stronger and more numerous than the lowlights, and the business appears to be executing through transformation while acknowledging near-term modeling caveats.Positive Updates
Strong Full-Year Financial Performance
Fiscal 2025 retail sales and revenue were up 5% (includes an extra week); profitability grew 14% and EPS increased 19% to $13.77. Annual comparable retail sales were up 4%, exceeding 4% in three of four quarters.
Negative Updates
Results Inflated by the 53rd Week
The 2025 reporting period included a 53rd retail week estimated to add ~$287 million of retail sales (ex Petroleum) and approximately $40 million of IBT. Management warned this materially affects year/quarter comparisons and modeling.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Full-Year Financial Performance
Fiscal 2025 retail sales and revenue were up 5% (includes an extra week); profitability grew 14% and EPS increased 19% to $13.77. Annual comparable retail sales were up 4%, exceeding 4% in three of four quarters.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reiterated True North long-term goals of annual retail sales growth of 3–5% with earnings growing faster than sales and a "North Star" retail gross margin rate of 35%+, while flagging 2026-specific expectations: operating CapEx of $500–$550 million (2025 OpEx was $502 million), continued share repurchases after >$440 million bought in 2025 (share count down ~5%), and a push to realize $100 million of restructuring savings (with $30 million recognized in Q4). They warned of tough weather and patriotic‑purchasing comps in H1 2026, said Q1 had started well but noted the bank will face some SG&A/headwind in H1 from ongoing investments (although not the same profitability hit as 2025), and signaled key program timing—DaiVID rollout to SportChek/Mark’s in late 2026 and MOSaiC commercialization in H2 2026—while pointing to 2025 metrics that underpin guidance (ROIC up to 11%, extra retail week in 2025 added ~$287M sales ex‑Petroleum and ~$40M IBT, and loyalty/partnership momentum such as 9.8M active members and eCTM issuance of $329M).Canadian Tire Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
63
Positive
Balance Sheet
54
Neutral
Cash Flow
61
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 16.43B | 16.32B | 16.36B | 16.66B | 17.81B | 16.29B |
| Gross Profit | 5.41B | 5.39B | 5.63B | 5.70B | 5.74B | 5.48B |
| EBITDA | 2.04B | 1.97B | 1.65B | 1.64B | 2.22B | 2.23B |
| Net Income | 599.20M | 578.50M | 887.70M | 213.30M | 1.04B | 1.13B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 21.84B | 21.54B | 22.24B | 21.98B | 22.10B | 21.80B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 494.50M | 702.00M | 575.90M | 488.40M | 490.10M | 2.34B |
| Total Debt | 7.79B | 9.76B | 7.91B | 8.81B | 7.72B | 7.09B |
| Total Liabilities | 15.04B | 14.73B | 15.15B | 15.53B | 15.06B | 15.29B |
| Stockholders Equity | 5.83B | 5.86B | 6.16B | 5.55B | 5.62B | 5.12B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 718.70M | 370.10M | 1.49B | 772.80M | -146.00M | 1.11B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.29B | 952.10M | 2.06B | 1.35B | 466.50M | 1.74B |
| Investing Cash Flow | 749.90M | 638.80M | -264.10M | -747.80M | -230.40M | -658.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -2.09B | -1.51B | -1.64B | -621.00M | -1.66B | -653.40M |
Canadian Tire Technical Analysis
Positive
194.60
Price Trends
184.82
Positive
186.40
Positive
177.20
Positive
Market Momentum
2.29
Positive
52.50
Neutral
26.94
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:CTC.A, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 194.6 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 191.10, above the 50-day MA of 184.82, and above the 200-day MA of 177.20, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 2.29 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 52.50 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 26.94 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:CTC.A.
Canadian Tire Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | C$84.27B | 19.11 | 17.65% | 1.08% | 3.91% | 23.32% | |
63 Neutral | C$1.64B | 10.41 | 12.69% | 3.11% | 1.41% | -3.11% | |
62 Neutral | C$10.06B | 17.08 | 10.24% | 4.10% | 0.86% | -26.59% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
60 Neutral | C$480.36M | 137.11 | 5.50% | ― | 24.65% | -28.30% | |
57 Neutral | C$1.28B | 13.08 | 117.77% | 1.72% | 6.18% | 8.58% | |
55 Neutral | C$15.00M | -56.67 | ― | ― | 39.58% | 83.15% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
TSE:CTC.A
Canadian Tire
191.26
9.14
5.02%
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.