Canadian Tire (TSE:CTC.A)
TSX:CTC.A
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Canadian Tire
(TSX:CTC.A)
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Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:
C$179.00
▼(-8.02% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/17/26
Score is driven primarily by fair-to-good financial performance (improving free cash flow but constrained by leverage and thin/volatile margins). Valuation is a positive (low P/E and solid yield), while technicals are the main drag due to a clear bearish trend and weak momentum. Earnings call adds modest support on strategy, buybacks and savings, tempered by tough comps and execution/inventory risks.
Positive Factors
Large, active loyalty program
A near-10M registered loyalty base with proven personalization-driven incremental sales is a durable competitive advantage. It raises repeat purchase rates, boosts customer lifetime value, aids cross-sell to financial products, and supports more efficient marketing and margin resilience over time.
Negative Factors
Elevated financial leverage
Mid‑1x debt-to-equity leaves limited financial flexibility for a cyclical retailer. In a downturn higher leverage increases refinancing and interest risk, constrains opportunistic investment or buybacks, and lengthens time required to materially reduce debt absent sustainably stronger free cash flow.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Large, active loyalty program
A near-10M registered loyalty base with proven personalization-driven incremental sales is a durable competitive advantage. It raises repeat purchase rates, boosts customer lifetime value, aids cross-sell to financial products, and supports more efficient marketing and margin resilience over time.
Read all positive factors
Canadian Tire (CTC.A) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$9.15B
Dividend Yield4.1%
Average Volume (3M)289.86K
Price to Earnings (P/E)23.1
Beta (1Y)0.60
Revenue Growth0.86%
EPS Growth-26.59%
CountryCA
Employees13,973
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustrySpecialty Retail
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)11.20
Shares Outstanding49,209,530
10 Day Avg. Volume300,543
30 Day Avg. Volume289,864
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.49
Price to Book (P/B)1.61
Price to Sales (P/S)0.58
P/FCF Ratio25.51
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$198.29Price Target Upside1.89% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)14.47
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$16.57B
Canadian Tire Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Canadian Tire Corporation, Limited provides a range of retail goods and services in Canada. It operates in three segments: Retail, CT REIT, and Financial Services. The Retail segment retails automotive maintenance products and accessories, parts, ...
How the Company Makes Money
Canadian Tire makes money primarily through (1) retail merchandise sales, (2) petroleum fuel sales, and (3) financial services income. Retail: The largest revenue driver is selling products across its banners in stores and online; revenue is recog...
Canadian Tire Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 19, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a majority of positive operational and financial developments: healthy sales growth, strong margin expansion, substantial EPS and IBT gains, meaningful loyalty and partnership traction, disciplined capital allocation and clear strategic investments (AI/MOSaiC, store refreshes). The principal cautions relate to a 53rd week that materially boosted results, elevated inventory, bank-level investment pressures and some banner/category-specific softness (CTR living, discretionary). Management articulated concrete plans to sustain momentum (loyalty, partnerships, DaiVID rollout, MOSaiC commercialization) and quantified savings and capital priorities. On balance, the highlights are stronger and more numerous than the lowlights, and the business appears to be executing through transformation while acknowledging near-term modeling caveats.Positive Updates
Strong Full-Year Financial Performance
Fiscal 2025 retail sales and revenue were up 5% (includes an extra week); profitability grew 14% and EPS increased 19% to $13.77. Annual comparable retail sales were up 4%, exceeding 4% in three of four quarters.
Negative Updates
Results Inflated by the 53rd Week
The 2025 reporting period included a 53rd retail week estimated to add ~$287 million of retail sales (ex Petroleum) and approximately $40 million of IBT. Management warned this materially affects year/quarter comparisons and modeling.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Full-Year Financial Performance
Fiscal 2025 retail sales and revenue were up 5% (includes an extra week); profitability grew 14% and EPS increased 19% to $13.77. Annual comparable retail sales were up 4%, exceeding 4% in three of four quarters.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reiterated True North long-term goals of annual retail sales growth of 3–5% with earnings growing faster than sales and a "North Star" retail gross margin rate of 35%+, while flagging 2026-specific expectations: operating CapEx of $500–$550 million (2025 OpEx was $502 million), continued share repurchases after >$440 million bought in 2025 (share count down ~5%), and a push to realize $100 million of restructuring savings (with $30 million recognized in Q4). They warned of tough weather and patriotic‑purchasing comps in H1 2026, said Q1 had started well but noted the bank will face some SG&A/headwind in H1 from ongoing investments (although not the same profitability hit as 2025), and signaled key program timing—DaiVID rollout to SportChek/Mark’s in late 2026 and MOSaiC commercialization in H2 2026—while pointing to 2025 metrics that underpin guidance (ROIC up to 11%, extra retail week in 2025 added ~$287M sales ex‑Petroleum and ~$40M IBT, and loyalty/partnership momentum such as 9.8M active members and eCTM issuance of $329M).Canadian Tire Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
63
Positive
Balance Sheet
54
Neutral
Cash Flow
61
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 16.43B | 16.32B | 16.36B | 16.66B | 17.81B | 16.29B |
| Gross Profit | 5.41B | 5.39B | 5.63B | 5.70B | 5.74B | 5.48B |
| EBITDA | 2.09B | 2.17B | 1.65B | 1.64B | 2.22B | 2.23B |
| Net Income | 599.20M | 578.50M | 887.70M | 213.30M | 1.04B | 1.13B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 21.84B | 21.54B | 22.24B | 21.98B | 22.10B | 21.80B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 494.50M | 702.00M | 575.90M | 488.40M | 490.10M | 2.34B |
| Total Debt | 7.79B | 9.76B | 7.91B | 8.81B | 7.72B | 7.09B |
| Total Liabilities | 15.04B | 14.73B | 15.15B | 15.53B | 15.06B | 15.29B |
| Stockholders Equity | 5.83B | 5.86B | 6.16B | 5.55B | 5.62B | 5.12B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 718.70M | 370.10M | 1.49B | 772.80M | -146.00M | 1.11B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.29B | 952.10M | 2.06B | 1.35B | 466.50M | 1.74B |
| Investing Cash Flow | 749.90M | 638.80M | -264.10M | -747.80M | -230.40M | -658.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -2.09B | -1.51B | -1.64B | -621.00M | -1.66B | -653.40M |
Canadian Tire Technical Analysis
Negative
194.60
Price Trends
187.03
Negative
181.64
Negative
173.28
Negative
Market Momentum
-2.74
Positive
27.35
Positive
8.75
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:CTC.A, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 194.6 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 186.33, above the 50-day MA of 187.03, and above the 200-day MA of 173.28, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -2.74 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 27.35 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 8.75 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:CTC.A.
Canadian Tire Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
68 Neutral | C$1.68B | 20.85 | 12.69% | 3.11% | 1.41% | -3.11% | |
65 Neutral | C$368.42M | 67.12 | 5.50% | ― | 24.65% | -28.30% | |
64 Neutral | C$72.04B | 15.86 | 17.65% | 1.08% | -0.34% | 7.11% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
60 Neutral | C$9.15B | 23.06 | 8.99% | 4.10% | 0.86% | -26.59% | |
57 Neutral | C$1.21B | 18.33 | 117.77% | 1.72% | 6.18% | 8.58% | |
43 Neutral | C$12.41M | -14.58 | ― | ― | 35.41% | 88.89% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
TSE:CTC.A
Canadian Tire
171.34
9.97
6.18%
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.