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Canacol Energy (TSE:CNE)
TSX:CNE
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Canacol Energy (CNE) AI Stock Analysis

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TSE:CNE

Canacol Energy

(TSX:CNE)

Rating:63Neutral
Price Target:
C$1.50
▼(-10.18% Downside)
The overall stock score of 63 reflects a mixed outlook for Canacol Energy. Strong financial performance and strategic corporate events are offset by bearish technical indicators and financial stability concerns due to high leverage and recent net losses. The stock's undervaluation presents a potential opportunity, but risks remain due to operational and market challenges.

Canacol Energy (CNE) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

Canacol Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionCanacol Energy Ltd., an oil and gas company, engages in the exploration, development, and production of natural gas in Colombia. As of December 31, 2021, it had a total proved developed producing reserves of 236 billion cubic feet (Bcf) conventional natural gas; a total proved plus probable reserves of 607 Bcf conventional natural gas; and a total proved reserves of 368 Bcf conventional natural gas. The company was incorporated in 1970 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.
How the Company Makes MoneyCanacol Energy generates revenue primarily through the production and sale of oil and natural gas. The company operates multiple oil fields and has a robust portfolio of exploration blocks that provide potential for future production growth. Key revenue streams include the sale of crude oil to local and international markets, as well as the sale of natural gas, primarily to the Colombian domestic market where demand has been increasing. Additionally, Canacol has entered into strategic partnerships and contracts with various stakeholders, including utility companies, which facilitate stable sales agreements and help secure a consistent revenue flow. Factors contributing to its earnings include the global oil and gas price fluctuations, operational efficiency, and the successful development of its exploration projects.

Canacol Energy Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 07, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: -16.92%|
Next Earnings Date:Nov 06, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call indicates a strong financial performance with consecutive profitable quarters and successful drilling operations, yet it was balanced by production challenges and financial obligations. The company is addressing operational issues and remains focused on future growth and exploration opportunities.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Profitable Quarter with Strong Net Income
Canacol reported a net income of $13.9 million for Q2 2025, marking the fourth consecutive profitable quarter and a significant turnaround from a net loss in Q2 2024.
High Operating Netbacks and Margins
The company achieved operating netbacks of $5.11 per Mcf and maintained robust operating margins of approximately 75%.
Successful Drilling Operations
Four successful wells were drilled: Siku-3, Fresa-4, Zamia-1, and Borbon-1, adding to the inventory of commercial opportunities.
Strong Financial Performance
Adjusted funds from operations were reported at $36.9 million, and adjusted EBITDAX at $47.4 million.
Publication of ESG and TCFD Reports
Canacol published its 2024 ESG and TCFD reports, emphasizing the company's commitment to sustainable and responsible energy production.
Negative Updates
Production Challenges Due to Drilling Delays
Production was impacted by delays at Zamia-1, Borbon-1, and Palomino-1 due to local unrest, leading to lower quarterly average production compared to Q1 2025.
Accelerated Loan Amortization
Due to sales volumes falling below the threshold, an accelerated amortization clause was triggered on a $50 million term loan, requiring repayment over 6 months instead of 12.
High Capital Expenditures
Q2 2025 was capital intensive with $57 million in capital expenditures, impacting cash reserves.
Challenges with Natilla-2 Well
The Natilla-2 well faced wellbore instability, impacting the ability to run production casing, leading to a need for reevaluation in future drilling plans.
Company Guidance
In the Canacol Energy second quarter 2025 financial results conference call, the company reported strong financial metrics, with realized average natural gas prices net of transportation at $6.77 per Mcf and operating netbacks of $5.11 per Mcf, translating into robust operating margins of approximately 75%. Adjusted funds from operations reached $36.9 million, while adjusted EBITDAX stood at $47.4 million, and net income was reported at $13.9 million—marking the fourth consecutive profitable quarter. Sales comprised 127 million standard cubic feet equivalent per day, with 119 million standard cubic feet per day from natural gas and 1,382 barrels of oil per day. Despite some production delays due to site access issues, current gas sales increased to approximately 137 million standard cubic feet per day. The company maintained a consolidated leverage ratio of 2.7x and an interest coverage ratio of 4.49x, with cash and cash equivalents at $37 million as of June 30. Capital expenditures for the quarter were $57 million, funded by operating cash flow and cash reserves. Looking ahead, Canacol aims to sustain EBITDAX growth, advance exploration in Colombia and Bolivia, and uphold strong ESG practices, with plans to drill several wells, including the high-impact Valiente-1, by year-end.

Canacol Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Canacol Energy shows operational efficiency through EBITDA but faces challenges with net losses and high leverage, impacting long-term stability.
Income Statement
65
Positive
Canacol Energy has experienced mixed revenue growth with a decline from 2022 to 2023 but an increase in 2024. The gross profit margin is strong, reflecting efficient production. However, the net profit margin has seen a downturn, culminating in a net loss in 2024, indicating challenges in managing expenses or other costs. EBIT margin is absent in 2024, but EBITDA margin remains robust, suggesting good operational efficiency despite the lack of EBIT data.
Balance Sheet
60
Neutral
The balance sheet shows a high debt-to-equity ratio, indicating significant leverage which could pose risks in adverse market conditions. The return on equity (ROE) has turned negative in 2024 due to net losses, impacting shareholder returns. The equity ratio is moderate, suggesting the company is neither overly reliant on debt nor excessively equity-funded.
Cash Flow
70
Positive
Operating cash flow has improved significantly, demonstrating strong cash generation capabilities. Free cash flow growth is positive, indicating better management of capital expenditures. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is negative due to net losses, highlighting potential issues in translating profits into cash.
BreakdownDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue375.92M315.80M335.71M310.54M278.81M
Gross Profit294.13M239.88M239.57M216.59M212.10M
EBITDA262.20M183.71M168.70M158.30M172.72M
Net Income-32.73M86.24M147.27M15.18M-4.74M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets1.22B1.23B1.01B843.76M749.79M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments79.20M39.42M60.79M138.52M68.57M
Total Debt728.24M676.43M512.18M512.57M390.07M
Total Liabilities894.64M881.75M722.91M658.63M542.42M
Stockholders Equity321.14M351.67M291.94M185.13M207.37M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow95.27M-67.13M93.77M66.66M92.33M
Operating Cash Flow168.04M95.34M185.43M123.81M152.32M
Investing Cash Flow-102.25M-206.11M-179.91M-101.48M-88.96M
Financing Cash Flow-22.63M83.83M-80.67M51.53M-33.41M

Canacol Energy Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price1.67
Price Trends
50DMA
2.36
Negative
100DMA
2.72
Negative
200DMA
3.20
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.19
Positive
RSI
20.91
Positive
STOCH
9.83
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:CNE, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1.67 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.04, below the 50-day MA of 2.36, and below the 200-day MA of 3.20, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.19 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 20.91 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 9.83 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:CNE.

Canacol Energy Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
63
Neutral
$54.59M1.318.72%6.77%3.24%174.21%
60
Neutral
5.66B17.372.52%6.75%-1.64%-6.78%
$50.10M68.930.90%
59
Neutral
C$158.55M-6.39%9.47%64.01%
58
Neutral
C$162.63M-4.38%-29.38%93.99%
55
Neutral
C$107.40M-83.41%968.30%81.49%
£80.09M-6.26%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE:CNE
Canacol Energy
1.67
-2.68
-61.61%
PBEGF
Touchstone Exploration
0.19
-0.21
-52.50%
TSE:CDR
Condor Energies
1.60
-0.50
-23.81%
TSE:CVVY
Pieridae Energy
0.56
0.21
60.00%
TSE:QEC
Questerre
0.36
0.12
50.00%
GB:FOG
Falcon Oil & Gas
7.38
2.13
40.57%

Canacol Energy Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Canacol Energy Reports $13.9 Million Net Income in Q2 2025 Amidst Operational Challenges
Neutral
Aug 7, 2025

Canacol Energy Ltd. reported a net income of $13.9 million for the second quarter of 2025, marking a significant turnaround from a net loss in the previous year. Despite a decrease in natural gas sales volumes and revenues, the company benefited from a non-cash deferred income tax recovery, contributing to the positive net income. The company continues to focus on its exploration and development activities, with successful drilling operations in the Sucre Norte area, which are expected to enhance production capabilities. However, challenges remain with decreased EBITDAX and adjusted funds from operations due to lower sales volumes. The resignation of a senior executive also marks a notable change within the company’s management.

Financial Disclosures
Canacol Energy to Release Q2 2025 Financial Results
Neutral
Jul 31, 2025

Canacol Energy Ltd. announced that it will release its second quarter 2025 financial results on August 7, 2025, after market closure, with a conference call scheduled for August 8, 2025, to discuss the results. This announcement is significant for stakeholders as it provides insights into the company’s financial performance and operational progress, which are crucial for assessing its market positioning and future prospects.

Product-Related AnnouncementsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Canacol Energy Provides Update on Exploration Drilling Activities
Positive
Jul 14, 2025

Canacol Energy Ltd. has provided an update on its recent exploration drilling activities. The Natilla-2 ST3 well was temporarily abandoned due to well bore instability, with plans to either re-enter the well or drill a new Natilla-3 well. The Borbon-1 and Zamia-1 wells have been successfully drilled and are expected to begin production in August 2025, with anticipated outputs of 10-12 MMscfpd and 8-10 MMscfpd, respectively. The Palomino-1 well is set to begin drilling soon, and the Fresa-4 well is currently being drilled, targeting gas-charged sandstones. These developments are expected to enhance Canacol’s production capabilities and strengthen its position in the Colombian natural gas market.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:CNE) stock is a Hold with a C$5.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Canacol Energy stock, see the TSE:CNE Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder MeetingsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Canacol Energy Announces Board Elections and Strategic Approvals
Positive
Jun 24, 2025

Canacol Energy Ltd. announced the results of its annual general and special meeting held in Bogotá, Colombia, where shareholders elected a new board of directors, appointed PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP as auditors, and approved unallocated awards under the company’s long-term incentive plan. These decisions are expected to strengthen Canacol’s governance and operational strategies, potentially enhancing its market position and stakeholder confidence.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:CNE) stock is a Hold with a C$5.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Canacol Energy stock, see the TSE:CNE Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 15, 2025