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Canacol Energy (TSE:CNE)
TSX:CNE

Canacol Energy (CNE) AI Stock Analysis

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Canacol Energy

(TSX:CNE)

Rating:58Neutral
Price Target:
C$3.00
▲(13.64%Upside)
Canacol Energy's stock score is influenced primarily by concerns over financial stability due to net losses and high leverage, despite strong operational efficiency. Technical indicators suggest a bearish trend, and valuation metrics are weak with negative earnings. However, recent corporate events and strategic plans provide some optimism for future improvements.

Canacol Energy (CNE) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

Canacol Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionCanacol Energy Ltd. (CNE) is a leading natural gas exploration and production company headquartered in Canada, with primary operations in Colombia. The company focuses on the exploration, development, and commercialization of natural gas, serving the energy needs of industrial, commercial, and residential customers. Canacol Energy strives to provide reliable and sustainable energy solutions, leveraging its expertise in the hydrocarbon industry to supply the growing energy market in Latin America.
How the Company Makes MoneyCanacol Energy generates revenue primarily through the exploration, production, and sale of natural gas. The company's key revenue streams include long-term contracts with industrial and commercial customers, which provide a stable income from the sale of natural gas. Additionally, Canacol Energy invests in infrastructure development to enhance its production capacity and distribution network, ensuring efficient delivery of natural gas to its clients. Strategic partnerships with local and international energy firms also contribute to its earnings, as these collaborations facilitate market expansion and operational efficiency. The company benefits from favorable market conditions in Colombia, where demand for natural gas is rising due to economic development and a push for cleaner energy alternatives.

Canacol Energy Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 08, 2025
(Q4-2024)
|
% Change Since: -15.65%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 07, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call presented a positive outlook for Canacol Energy, highlighting record EBITDAX, increased natural gas prices, successful drilling activities, and a strong cash position. However, the company did report a net loss in the fourth quarter due to tax expenses, and reduced capital expenditures were noted. Despite these lowlights, the overall performance and strategic positioning indicate a strong and positive trajectory.
Q4-2024 Updates
Positive Updates
Record-Breaking EBITDAX
Canacol Energy achieved a record EBITDAX of $296 million for fiscal year 2024, which is 25% higher than the previous year.
Increased Natural Gas Prices and Netbacks
Realized natural gas prices reached $6.99 per 1,000 cubic feet, generating netbacks of $5.41 per 1,000 cubic feet, a 32% increase compared to last year.
Successful Drilling and Reserve Replacement
The company drilled five exploration wells and five development wells, achieving a 2P reserve replacement ratio of 85% with 53 billion cubic feet in new discoveries.
Strong Cash Position
Canacol closed the year with a cash position of $79 million, marking its strongest cash position since Q3 of 2022.
Sustainability Recognition
The company scored 75 points in the S&P Global Corporate Sustainability Assessment, ranking fourth globally in the oil and gas sector.
Negative Updates
Net Loss in Q4 2024
The company reported a net loss of $25.4 million for Q4 2024, primarily due to a non-cash deferred income tax expense of $28.9 million.
Reduced Capital Expenditures
Capital expenditures for Q4 2024 were $28.6 million, a 60% decrease from the previous year, reflecting lower spending on various operational activities.
Company Guidance
During Canacol Energy's fiscal year 2024 conference call, the company reported a record-breaking EBITDAX of $296 million, marking a 25% increase from 2023. The average realized natural gas price was $6.99 per 1,000 standard cubic feet, yielding netbacks of $5.41, up 32% from the previous year, with an operational margin of 77%. The company averaged 165 million standard cubic feet per day in gas and oil sales, including 157 million standard cubic feet per day of natural gas. Capital investments for the year totaled $122 million, down 43% from 2023 and below the guidance of $138 million. The reduction was attributed to drilling and cost efficiency efforts. Canacol closed the year with a cash position of $79 million. The corporation drilled five exploration wells and five development wells, achieving a 2P reserve replacement ratio of 85% with 53 billion cubic feet in new discoveries, bringing total 2P reserves to 599 billion cubic feet of gas equivalents. The net present value of future net revenues from 2P reserves is estimated at $2.6 billion before tax. Canacol's Corporate Sustainability Assessment score by S&P Global was 75 points, ranking fourth among 165 global oil and gas companies. For 2025, Canacol aims to sustain EBITDAX generation and reserves, drill high-impact exploration wells, reduce debt, and prepare for operations in Bolivia by 2026, with a projected capital program between $143 million and $160 million.

Canacol Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Canacol Energy demonstrates strong operational efficiency with consistent EBITDA performance. However, increased leverage and recent net losses raise concerns about long-term financial stability. Improved cash flow is a positive, but profitability needs attention.
Income Statement
65
Positive
Canacol Energy has experienced mixed revenue growth with a decline from 2022 to 2023 but an increase in 2024. The gross profit margin is strong, reflecting efficient production. However, the net profit margin has seen a downturn, culminating in a net loss in 2024, indicating challenges in managing expenses or other costs. EBIT margin is absent in 2024, but EBITDA margin remains robust, suggesting good operational efficiency despite the lack of EBIT data.
Balance Sheet
60
Neutral
The balance sheet shows a high debt-to-equity ratio, indicating significant leverage which could pose risks in adverse market conditions. The return on equity (ROE) has turned negative in 2024 due to net losses, impacting shareholder returns. The equity ratio is moderate, suggesting the company is neither overly reliant on debt nor excessively equity-funded.
Cash Flow
70
Positive
Operating cash flow has improved significantly, demonstrating strong cash generation capabilities. Free cash flow growth is positive, indicating better management of capital expenditures. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is negative due to net losses, highlighting potential issues in translating profits into cash.
BreakdownDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue375.92M315.80M335.71M310.54M278.81M
Gross Profit294.13M239.88M239.57M216.59M212.10M
EBITDA262.20M183.71M168.70M158.30M172.72M
Net Income-32.73M86.24M147.27M15.18M-4.74M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets1.22B1.23B1.01B843.76M749.79M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments79.20M39.42M60.79M138.52M68.57M
Total Debt728.24M676.43M512.18M512.57M390.07M
Total Liabilities894.64M881.75M722.91M658.63M542.42M
Stockholders Equity321.14M351.67M291.94M185.13M207.37M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow95.27M-67.13M93.77M66.66M92.33M
Operating Cash Flow168.04M95.34M185.43M123.81M152.32M
Investing Cash Flow-102.25M-206.11M-179.91M-101.48M-88.96M
Financing Cash Flow-22.63M83.83M-80.67M51.53M-33.41M

Canacol Energy Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price2.64
Price Trends
50DMA
2.81
Negative
100DMA
3.27
Negative
200DMA
3.39
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.05
Negative
RSI
41.22
Neutral
STOCH
28.89
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:CNE, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 2.64 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.69, below the 50-day MA of 2.81, and below the 200-day MA of 3.39, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.05 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 41.22 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 28.89 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:CNE.

Canacol Energy Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (52)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
TSTXP
58
Neutral
$87.49M13.657.06%-6.52%
TSCNE
58
Neutral
$89.74M4.40-1.29%6.77%17.52%-105.04%
TSQEC
55
Neutral
C$132.84M-5.05%-0.03%71.16%
52
Neutral
C$2.91B-0.99-3.26%6.30%2.20%-43.43%
TSCDR
51
Neutral
C$129.59M-52.56%968.30%81.49%
48
Neutral
C$110.36M-21.67%-42.15%-117.23%
TSFO
36
Underperform
£149.73M-6.26%13.95%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE:CNE
Canacol Energy
2.64
-1.62
-38.03%
TSE:FO
Falcon Oil & Gas
0.14
0.03
22.73%
TSE:TXP
Touchstone Exploration
0.30
-0.24
-44.44%
TSE:QEC
Questerre
0.32
0.06
23.08%
TSE:CVVY
Pieridae Energy
0.37
0.03
8.82%
TSE:CDR
Condor Energies
1.84
0.37
25.17%

Canacol Energy Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder MeetingsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Canacol Energy Announces Board Elections and Strategic Approvals
Positive
Jun 24, 2025

Canacol Energy Ltd. announced the results of its annual general and special meeting held in Bogotá, Colombia, where shareholders elected a new board of directors, appointed PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP as auditors, and approved unallocated awards under the company’s long-term incentive plan. These decisions are expected to strengthen Canacol’s governance and operational strategies, potentially enhancing its market position and stakeholder confidence.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:CNE) stock is a Hold with a C$5.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Canacol Energy stock, see the TSE:CNE Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Canacol Energy Reports Increased Natural Gas Netback Amid Strategic Expansion Plans
Positive
May 8, 2025

Canacol Energy Ltd. reported a 12% increase in natural gas netback for Q1 2025, driven by higher average sales prices despite a decrease in sales volumes. The company is focusing on maintaining and growing its EBITDA and reserves through investments in drilling and new facilities, while also exploring high-impact opportunities in the Lower Magdalena Valley. Canacol plans to optimize production and increase reserves with a strategic drilling program, aiming to leverage strong gas market conditions throughout 2025.

Financial Disclosures
Canacol Energy to Release Q1 2025 Financial Results
Neutral
Apr 28, 2025

Canacol Energy Ltd. announced that it will release its first quarter 2025 financial results on May 8, 2025, after market close, with a subsequent conference call scheduled for May 9, 2025. This announcement is significant for stakeholders as it provides insights into the company’s financial performance and strategic direction, potentially impacting its market positioning and investor confidence.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jun 25, 2025