Chorus Aviation (CHR) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$556.82M
• Dividend Yield: 0.76%
• Average Volume (3M): 63.92K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 7.0
• Beta (1Y): 0.85
• Revenue Growth: -12.42%
• EPS Growth: 69.23%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 4,345
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Airlines, Airports & Air Services
• EPS (TTM): 0.57
• Shares Outstanding: 23,415,380
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 61,827
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 63,922
• PEG Ratio: -0.05
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.09
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.42
• P/FCF Ratio: 19.86
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: C$31.00
• Price Target Upside: 30.36% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.95
• Revenue Forecast (FY): C$1.28B

• Rating: 72 Outperform
• Price Target: C$26.00 ▲(9.34% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/20/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/20/26

The score is driven by improved financial stability (profitability rebound and major deleveraging) and a shareholder-friendly, positive-guidance earnings call (higher dividend, buybacks, and multi-year cash generation outlook). The main constraints are weaker 2025 cash-flow conversion and limited revenue momentum, while technicals are supportive but approaching stretched levels.

Positive Factors

Sharply improved leverage

Material deleveraging materially strengthens financial flexibility and reduces vulnerability to cyclical airline downturns. Lower leverage supports sustained investment in fleet/maintenance, funds shareholder returns, and provides capacity for opportunistic M&A without immediate refinancing pressure.

Return to profitability

A substantive earnings rebound reflects operational improvements and lower net interest expense, indicating the business can generate sustainable operating profits. Persistent positive net income enables reinvestment in fleet, steadier dividends, and reduces the chance of loss-driven strategic pivots.

Multi-year cash guidance & capital returns

Management's multi-year FCF guidance and committed capital return program signal disciplined allocation and predictable cash deployment. This underpins long-term shareholder value, funds modest M&A (e.g., Kadex) and supports dividend continuity while preserving flexibility for fleet investments.

Negative Factors

Weakened cash conversion

Marked decline in operating cash flow and weaker cash conversion erode the quality of reported earnings and reduce internally available capital. Over a multi-year horizon this raises dependence on asset sales or external funding to sustain buybacks/dividends and capital expenditures.

Revenue stagnation

Stagnant-to-declining top-line limits operating leverage and constrains sustainable margin expansion. For an asset-and-contract driven aviation firm, persistent revenue headwinds make growth reliant on cyclical asset transactions or contract renewals, increasing execution risk over the medium term.

Reliance on asset-sale timing & lease extensions

Dependence on realized proceeds and lease-extension assumptions injects lumpiness and execution risk into projected cash flows. If asset sales or lease renewals slip or occur at unfavorable prices, the company may face funding shortfalls or forced dispositions that weaken long-term cash generation.

Chorus Aviation Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Chorus Aviation Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides various aviation support services in the United States and Canada. The company operates through two segments, Regional Aviation Services and Regional Aircraft Leasing. The Regional Aviation Services segment includes all three sectors of the regional aviation, such as contract flying, including ACMI and charter operations; aircraft leasing; and maintenance, repair, and overhaul, as well as part sales and technical services. The Regional Aircraft Leasing segment provides aircraft leasing to third-party air operators. As of December 31, 2021, this segment's portfolio of leased aircraft consisted of 62 aircraft of which 56 aircraft were on lease to airline customers, such as 23 Dash 8-400s, 18 ATR72-600s, four CRJ1000s, four E190s, two E195s and five A220-300s. The company was formerly known as Jazz Air Income Fund and changed its name to Chorus Aviation Inc. in January 2011. Chorus Aviation Inc. was incorporated in 2010 and is based in Dartmouth, Canada.

How the Company Makes Money

Chorus Aviation generates revenue through multiple key streams. The primary source of income comes from its regional airline operations, where it earns revenue through capacity purchase agreements (CPA) with Air Canada, which provides a stable and predictable cash flow. Under these agreements, Chorus provides airline services using its fleet of regional aircraft, and Air Canada compensates it based on the number of flights operated and the number of available seat miles. Furthermore, Chorus Aviation Capital, the leasing division, generates income by leasing aircraft to other airlines, which includes long-term lease agreements and maintenance services. The company also benefits from maintenance and repair services provided to its aircraft and those of its leasing clients. Strategic partnerships with major airlines and a diverse fleet of regional aircraft enhance its revenue stability and growth potential.

Chorus Aviation Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Fundamentals improved with a return to profitability and sharply lower leverage, strengthening financial flexibility. Offsetting this, revenue has been flat-to-down and 2025 operating cash flow fell sharply with weaker cash conversion, tempering the quality of the earnings rebound.

Income Statement

Profitability improved meaningfully in 2025, with net income turning positive (vs. a loss in 2024) and stronger operating and EBITDA margins. That said, revenue has been essentially flat to down over the last two years (2025 revenue down ~2.4% YoY), and margins are still below the stronger 2022–2023 levels, indicating a less favorable earnings trajectory than earlier in the cycle.

Balance Sheet

Leverage has improved sharply, with total debt reduced from ~C$1.76B (2023) to ~C$374M (2025) and debt-to-equity falling to ~0.74x, which materially strengthens financial flexibility versus prior years. The main watch-out is that the company operates in a cyclical industry and the balance sheet was highly levered historically (over 2–3x debt-to-equity in 2020–2021), so maintaining this delevered profile is key.

Cash Flow

Cash generation weakened in 2025, with operating cash flow down sharply (to ~C$63M from ~C$265M in 2024) and free cash flow down ~14% YoY. Free cash flow is positive, but it is modest relative to earnings in 2025 (free cash flow running at ~44% of net income), suggesting earnings quality/cash conversion was less robust than in 2022–2024.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.32B	1.40B	1.40B	1.60B	1.02B
Gross Profit	264.86M	270.89M	337.13M	423.40M	205.63M
EBITDA	223.53M	165.54M	271.36M	360.85M	270.46M
Net Income	78.74M	-158.50M	101.35M	48.89M	-20.48M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.31B	1.61B	3.85B	4.06B	3.18B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	28.66M	222.22M	88.83M	100.03M	123.57M
Total Debt	374.16M	516.38M	1.76B	2.03B	1.91B
Total Liabilities	802.61M	1.10B	2.57B	2.79B	2.49B
Stockholders Equity	507.84M	511.95M	1.19B	1.18B	690.47M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	27.86M	212.13M	256.51M	217.23M	110.26M
Operating Cash Flow	62.75M	265.02M	299.68M	279.51M	184.97M
Investing Cash Flow	-28.04M	818.67M	37.56M	-231.37M	-45.74M
Financing Cash Flow	-225.49M	-1.06B	-325.55M	-71.46M	-180.93M

Chorus Aviation Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 23.78
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:CHR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 23.78 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 22.95, above the 50-day MA of 22.14, and above the 200-day MA of 21.69, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.71 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 57.27 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 51.40 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:CHR.

Chorus Aviation Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CHR	72 Outperform	C$556.82M	7.03	2.09%	0.76%	-12.42%	69.23%
EIF	72 Outperform	C$5.72B	25.57	9.88%	3.13%	15.47%	9.40%
MAL	72 Outperform	C$1.41B	18.44	5.64%	0.93%	8.84%	131.58%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
CJT	59 Neutral	C$1.41B	16.01	16.75%	1.67%	7.71%	3170.43%
AC	58 Neutral	C$5.40B	9.32	-10.66%	―	-0.09%	-109.21%
JET	49 Neutral	C$69.11M	-11.43	―	―	16.18%	87.47%

Chorus Aviation Corporate Events

Chorus Aviation to Buy Kadex Aero Supply in $50 Million Parts Expansion

Chorus Aviation has agreed to acquire Kadex Aero Supply, a private independent distributor of aircraft parts, supplies and repair and overhaul services, for approximately $50 million in cash and contingent payments. Kadex, which generated about $60 million in 2025 revenue and employs roughly 50 staff across Ontario and Alberta, brings relationships with more than 70 OEMs and a one-stop-shop model for aviation customers.

The deal, expected to close in the second quarter of 2026, will be financed through Chorus’s cash and is described as immediately accretive to earnings and cash flow once completed. By adding Kadex’s established parts sales platform and deep customer base, Chorus aims to significantly expand its aircraft parts business, enhance service breadth in the aviation parts market and strengthen its diversified aviation, aerospace and defence platform while reinforcing stable cash flows and long-term shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:CHR) stock is a Hold with a C$26.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Chorus Aviation stock, see the TSE:CHR Stock Forecast page.

Chorus Aviation Boosts Dividend, Plans Major Buybacks After Strong 2025

Chorus Aviation reported a strong turnaround in 2025, with fourth-quarter net income from continuing operations of $16.7 million and full-year net income of $78.7 million, both showing substantial year-over-year improvements. Adjusted earnings available to common shareholders rose to $58.6 million, or $2.27 per share, while free cash flow climbed to $135.3 million despite a modest decline in adjusted EBITDA.

The company raised its quarterly dividend by 38% to $0.11 per share, signalled plans for up to $100 million in share buybacks over the next four years, and has already repurchased about 14% of its shares for $85.2 million. Chorus also agreed to acquire aircraft parts distributor Kadex Aero Supply for approximately $50 million, a move aimed at enhancing higher-margin businesses, strengthening its aviation and defence platforms, and supporting long-term cash flow growth and shareholder returns.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:CHR) stock is a Hold with a C$26.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Chorus Aviation stock, see the TSE:CHR Stock Forecast page.

Chorus Aviation Sets February 13 Call for Q4 and Year-End 2025 Results

Chorus Aviation Inc. has scheduled the release of its fourth quarter and full-year 2025 financial results for Friday, February 13, 2026, with a conference call and audio webcast that morning for analysts and media. President and CEO Colin Copp and CFO Gary Osborne will lead the presentation and Q&A, and the company is offering both live access and a time-limited replay, reinforcing its investor relations efforts and commitment to transparent communication with financial stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:CHR) stock is a Buy with a C$31.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Chorus Aviation stock, see the TSE:CHR Stock Forecast page.

Jazz Aviation Secures New Labour Agreements with Maintenance Employees

Jazz Aviation LP announced the ratification of new five-year collective agreements with the Aircraft Mechanics Fraternal Association, covering 822 maintenance employees. These agreements include industry-competitive wage increases and enhancements, which are expected to strengthen Jazz’s operational stability and employee relations.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:CHR) stock is a Hold with a C$22.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Chorus Aviation stock, see the TSE:CHR Stock Forecast page.