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Centerra Gold (TSE:CG)
TSX:CG
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Centerra Gold
(TSX:CG)
70Neutral
Positive Factors
Financial Performance
Centerra is well-positioned vis-à-vis its peers given relatively steady operational outlook, stable jurisdictional exposure, a strong balance sheet, and peer-leading FCF and capital returns.
Operational Expansion
The definitive feasibility study for Centerra's molybdenum business unit envisages restart of the Thompson Creek mine.
Negative Factors
Operational Challenges
The Langeloth metallurgical facility is already operational, and processes third-party molybdenum concentrate at reduced capacity (~30%).
Centerra Gold (CG) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.85B
Dividend Yield3.15%
Average Volume (3M)693.10K
Price to Earnings (P/E)17.1
Beta (1Y)1.62
Revenue Growth10.16%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryCA
Employees1,150
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength59
IndustryGold
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.49
Shares Outstanding209,635,330
10 Day Avg. Volume580,493
30 Day Avg. Volume693,098
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG RatioN/A
Price to Book (P/B)N/A
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00
Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)0.00
P/FCF Ratio0.00
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.46
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.20
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$12.01Price Target Upside36.15% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering9
Centerra Gold Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionCenterra Gold Inc., a gold mining company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and operation of gold and copper properties in North America, Turkey, and internationally. The company explores for gold, copper, and molybdenum deposits. Its flagship projects include the 100% owned Mount Milligan gold-copper mine located in British Columbia, Canada; and the Öksüt Gold Mine located in Turkey. The company was incorporated in 2002 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.
How the Company Makes MoneyCenterra Gold primarily generates revenue through the extraction and sale of gold and copper from its mining operations. The company's key revenue streams include the sale of gold doré bars and copper concentrates. These products are sold to various global refineries and smelters under long-term and spot market contracts, providing a steady income flow. Centerra Gold's earnings are influenced by factors such as commodity prices, production volumes, and operational efficiencies. Additionally, strategic partnerships and joint ventures may contribute to the company's financial performance by sharing risks and costs associated with exploration and development projects.
Centerra Gold Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Centerra Gold demonstrates strong revenue growth and operational efficiency, supported by a solid balance sheet with low leverage. Profitability margins are good but can improve further, and the cash flow position is healthy, indicating strong operational cash generation and positive free cash flow growth, positioning the company well for future investments and debt management.Income Statement
Centerra Gold has shown strong revenue growth with a 14.39% increase from the previous year, demonstrating robust demand and operational efficiency. The gross profit margin for TTM is 34.85%, indicating effective cost management. However, the net profit margin stands at 8.32%, suggesting room for improvement in controlling non-operational expenses. The EBIT margin of 16.03% and EBITDA margin of 26.49% reflect solid operational performance.72
Positive
Balance Sheet
The company maintains a strong balance sheet with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.013, indicating minimal reliance on debt financing. The equity ratio of 74.74% suggests a solid capital structure and financial stability. The return on equity (ROE) is 5.97%, signaling moderate profitability relative to shareholders' equity, presenting an opportunity for enhanced returns.78
Positive
Cash Flow
Operating cash flow to net income ratio is robust at 3.37, showcasing strong cash generation relative to net income. The free cash flow growth rate is positive at 11.21%, reflecting an increase in cash available for reinvestment or debt reduction. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is 1.71, indicating that a significant portion of earnings is effectively translated into free cash flow.70
Positive
| Breakdown | ||||
| Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 | Dec 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | |||
| 1.09B | 850.19M | 900.14M | 1.69B | 1.38B | Gross Profit |
| 264.00M | 178.52M | 291.96M | 786.04M | 450.08M | EBIT |
| 17.84M | 108.01M | 173.98M | 438.22M | 136.85M | EBITDA |
| 143.98M | 59.67M | 300.35M | 130.43M | 152.10M | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| -81.28M | -77.21M | 446.95M | 408.54M | -93.51M |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | |||
| 615.77M | 531.92M | 949.40M | 548.66M | 42.72M | Total Assets |
| 2.28B | 2.34B | 2.68B | 3.14B | 2.70B | Total Debt |
| 24.21M | 13.97M | 20.20M | 18.91M | 92.65M | Net Debt |
| -588.73M | -517.94M | -927.03M | -526.26M | 49.93M | Total Liabilities |
| 606.52M | 525.62M | 632.95M | 669.99M | 635.81M | Stockholders Equity |
| 1.67B | 1.81B | 2.04B | 2.47B | 2.07B |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | |||
| 160.29M | -82.91M | 322.26M | 603.77M | 34.71M | Operating Cash Flow |
| 245.60M | -1.98M | 414.76M | 930.01M | 334.15M | Investing Cash Flow |
| -90.29M | -255.64M | 36.43M | -303.38M | -309.65M | Financing Cash Flow |
| -74.28M | -157.69M | -49.14M | -123.99M | -133.49M |
Centerra Gold Technical Analysis
Negative
8.82
Price Trends
8.77
Positive
8.70
Positive
8.92
Negative
Market Momentum
0.07
Positive
45.24
Neutral
15.30
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:CG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 8.82 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.04, above the 50-day MA of 8.77, and below the 200-day MA of 8.92, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.07 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 45.24 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 15.30 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:CG.
Centerra Gold Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (49)
Financial Indicators
Performance Comparison
TSE:CG
Centerra Gold
8.82
0.37
4.38%
AEM
Agnico Eagle
111.12
46.28
71.38%
GOLD
Barrick Gold
18.41
2.11
12.94%
EGO
Eldorado Gold
18.30
3.55
24.07%
KGC
Kinross Gold
14.07
7.41
111.26%
BTG
B2Gold
2.94
0.53
21.99%
Centerra Gold Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 20, 2025
(Q4-2024)
| % Change Since: -5.45%|
Next Earnings Date:May 06, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a balanced view with strong free cash flow generation and progress in strategic projects like Thompson Creek and Mount Milligan. However, production challenges, particularly at Öksüt, and rising costs pose significant concerns. The strategic reevaluation of Goldfield adds uncertainty to future growth prospects.Q4-2024 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Free Cash Flow Generation
In the fourth quarter, Centerra Gold generated strong free cash flow of $47 million, driven by robust contributions from Mount Milligan, increasing the cash balance to $625 million.
Mount Milligan Performance
Mount Milligan produced almost 38,000 ounces of gold and 12.8 million pounds of copper in Q4. Full-year production was over 167,000 ounces of gold and 54 million pounds of copper. The site also achieved a mine life extension to 2036 due to increased reserves.
Progress on Strategic Projects
Significant advancements were made at Thompson Creek with detailed engineering work and fleet refurbishment 80% complete, targeting first production in the second half of 2027.
Liquidity and Capital Returns
Centerra Gold maintained a strong liquidity position with over $1 billion available and returned $88 million to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks in 2024.
Negative Updates
Production Below Guidance
Full-year 2024 gold and copper production at Mount Milligan was below guidance due to lower grades encountered in Phases 6 and 9. Öksüt also faced higher all-in sustaining costs due to lower sales and inflationary pressures.
Challenges at Öksüt
Gold production at Öksüt is expected to decrease to 105,000 to 125,000 ounces in 2025. Additionally, all-in sustaining costs are projected to rise to $1,475 to $1,575 per ounce due to inflation in Turkey and a lower production profile.
Uncertain Future for Goldfield
Goldfield's initial resource of 706,000 ounces of gold does not meet the company's requirements for near-term development, leading to strategic reevaluation and potential shelving of the project.
Higher Consolidated Costs
2025 consolidated all-in sustaining costs are expected to rise to $1,400 to $1,500 per ounce, reflecting increased costs at Öksüt and broader inflationary pressures.
Company Guidance
During the Centerra Gold Fourth Quarter 2024 Conference Call, the company provided detailed guidance and performance metrics. Centerra Gold reported producing over 73,000 ounces of gold and 12.8 million pounds of copper in Q4, ending the year near the low end of their production guidance range. The cash balance increased to $625 million, driven by strong free cash flow from operations, particularly from Mount Milligan. The company also highlighted the restart of operations at Thompson Creek and progress in their U.S. Molybdenum operations. For 2025, Centerra Gold expects consolidated gold production to be between 270,000 and 310,000 ounces, with copper production ranging from 50 to 60 million pounds. The all-in sustaining costs for 2025 are projected to be $1,400 to $1,500 per ounce. The company remains focused on advancing key projects, including technical studies at Mount Milligan and Kemess, while also maintaining their commitment to responsible mining and sustainability initiatives.Centerra Gold Corporate Events
Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Centerra Gold Files 2024 Annual Report with SEC
Neutral
Mar 27, 2025
Centerra Gold Inc. has filed its 2024 annual report on Form 40-F with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, which includes its annual information form, audited financial statements, and management’s discussion and analysis. These filings are accessible through EDGAR and SEDAR+, as well as on the company’s website. This filing ensures compliance with regulatory requirements and provides transparency to stakeholders, potentially impacting investor confidence and market perception.
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.