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Centerra Gold Inc. (TSE:CG)
:CG
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Centerra Gold
(NYSE:CG)
Rating:74Outperform
Price Target:
C$11.50
▲(19.29%Upside)
Positive Factors
Financial Performance
Centerra is well-positioned vis-à-vis its peers given relatively steady operational outlook, stable jurisdictional exposure, a strong balance sheet, and peer-leading FCF and capital returns.
Operational Expansion
The definitive feasibility study for Centerra's molybdenum business unit envisages restart of the Thompson Creek mine.
Negative Factors
Operational Challenges
The Langeloth metallurgical facility is already operational, and processes third-party molybdenum concentrate at reduced capacity (~30%).
Centerra Gold (CG) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$2.00B
Dividend Yield2.76%
Average Volume (3M)698.34K
Price to Earnings (P/E)33.5
Beta (1Y)1.50
Revenue Growth1.58%
EPS Growth-21.40%
CountryCA
Employees3,650
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength65
IndustryGold
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.18
Shares Outstanding207,560,880
10 Day Avg. Volume934,622
30 Day Avg. Volume698,335
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.15
Price to Book (P/B)0.76
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00
P/FCF Ratio-16.53
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.19
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.48
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit6.29
Enterprise Value/Ebitda1.78
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$13.42Price Target Upside39.20% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering7
Centerra Gold Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionCenterra Gold Inc., a gold mining company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and operation of gold and copper properties in North America, Turkey, and internationally. The company explores for gold, copper, and molybdenum deposits. Its flagship projects include the 100% owned Mount Milligan gold-copper mine located in British Columbia, Canada; and the Öksüt Gold Mine located in Turkey. The company was incorporated in 2002 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.
How the Company Makes MoneyCenterra Gold primarily generates revenue through the extraction and sale of gold and copper from its mining operations. The company's key revenue streams include the sale of gold doré bars and copper concentrates. These products are sold to various global refineries and smelters under long-term and spot market contracts, providing a steady income flow. Centerra Gold's earnings are influenced by factors such as commodity prices, production volumes, and operational efficiencies. Additionally, strategic partnerships and joint ventures may contribute to the company's financial performance by sharing risks and costs associated with exploration and development projects.
Centerra Gold Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 06, 2025
(Q1-2025)
| % Change Since: 8.75%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 31, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call highlighted positive developments such as free cash flow generation, a substantial share buyback program, and an updated resource at Kemess. However, it also noted challenges like lower-than-planned production at Mount Milligan and Öksüt, increased costs, and a free cash flow deficit in the molybdenum unit.Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Positive Free Cash Flow Generation
The company generated positive free cash flow at both gold and copper operations in Q1 2025, maintaining a strong cash position of $608 million.
Share Buyback Program
Centerra Gold's Board approved the repurchase of up to $75 million of shares in 2025, reinforcing its commitment to returning capital to shareholders.
Updated Resource at Kemess
Published an updated resource at Kemess, estimating gold mineral resources to contain 2.7 million ounces of indicated and 2.2 million ounces of inferred, with copper mineral resources containing 971 million pounds of indicated and 821 million pounds of inferred.
Molybdenum Business Unit Performance
Sold approximately 4.2 million pounds of molybdenum at an average realized price of $21.59 per pound, despite using $6 million of cash in operations.
Strong Liquidity and Strategic Plan Execution
Ended Q1 2025 with a cash balance of $608 million, providing total liquidity of $1 billion, supporting strategic plans and shareholder value delivery.
Negative Updates
Lower Production at Mount Milligan
Mount Milligan produced 35,800 ounces of payable gold and 11.6 million pounds of payable copper, lower than planned due to lower grades encountered.
Production Shortfall at Öksüt
Öksüt's first quarter production was 23,500 ounces lower than planned due to lower grades from mine sequencing and unfavorable weather conditions.
Increased All-In Sustaining Costs
All-in sustaining costs on a byproduct basis were $1,491 per ounce in Q1 2025, with higher costs at both Mount Milligan and Öksüt compared to the previous quarter.
Molybdenum Free Cash Flow Deficit
The Molybdenum business unit had a free cash flow deficit of $34 million in Q1 2025, mainly due to spending on the Thompson Creek restart.
Company Guidance
During Centerra Gold's first quarter 2025 conference call, the company reported stable guidance for the fiscal year while emphasizing key metrics and strategic initiatives. The production guidance remains unchanged, with an anticipated strong second half driven by higher grades. The company produced approximately 60,000 ounces of gold and 12 million pounds of copper in Q1. Centerra maintains a robust cash position with $608 million, facilitating financial flexibility for ongoing projects. A share repurchase of up to $75 million has been approved. The updated Kemess project resource highlights 2.7 million ounces of indicated and 2.2 million ounces of inferred gold, and 971 million pounds of indicated and 821 million pounds of inferred copper. Exploration investment at Kemess is set to double to $10-$12 million, with 28,500 meters of drilling planned. The company is advancing the Kemess preliminary economic assessment, targeting a significant gold-copper operation, with potential average annual production of around 250,000 gold equivalent ounces. Additionally, Mount Milligan produced over 35,800 ounces of gold and 11.6 million pounds of copper in Q1, with all-in sustaining costs of $1,168 per ounce. Öksüt's production was 23,500 ounces, with all-in sustaining costs at $1,563 per ounce. The company generated positive free cash flow, with overall Q1 sales of 61,000 ounces of gold and 12.1 million pounds of copper.Centerra Gold Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Centerra Gold shows financial stability with a strong equity position and low leverage. However, challenges exist in profitability and cash flow growth, with a slight revenue decline. Strategic initiatives are needed to enhance margins and growth.Income Statement
Centerra Gold's income statement shows a modest performance with a TTM gross profit margin of 31.3% and a net profit margin of 3.7%. The revenue growth rate is a concern, showing a decrease of 0.5% in the TTM period compared to the previous year. While EBIT and EBITDA margins remain relatively low at 3.0% and 21.1% respectively, profitability is under pressure from operational costs.70
Positive
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet reflects a strong equity position with an equity ratio of 71.9% and a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.01, indicating low leverage. Return on equity (ROE) stands at 2.7%, showing moderate returns on shareholder investments. The company's high equity ratio suggests financial stability, though improvement in profitability is needed to enhance ROE.75
Positive
Cash Flow
Cash flow analysis indicates a decline in free cash flow by 40.9% in the TTM period. The company maintains a healthy operating cash flow to net income ratio of 5.8, suggesting effective cash generation relative to net income. However, the reduction in free cash flow growth highlights potential cash management challenges.65
Positive
| Breakdown | |||||
| TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | ||||
| 1.21B | 1.21B | 1.09B | 850.19M | 900.14M | 1.69B | Gross Profit |
| 378.18M | 378.05M | 360.51M | 242.57M | 291.96M | 786.04M | EBIT |
| 35.73M | 76.52M | 17.84M | -36.79M | 173.98M | 438.22M | EBITDA |
| 255.44M | 305.81M | 143.98M | 59.67M | 300.35M | 130.43M | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| 44.42M | 80.39M | -81.28M | -77.21M | 446.95M | 408.54M |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | ||||
| 615.77M | 628.43M | 615.77M | 531.92M | 949.40M | 548.66M | Total Assets |
| 2.28B | 2.27B | 2.28B | 2.34B | 2.68B | 3.14B | Total Debt |
| 24.21M | 20.11M | 24.21M | 13.97M | 20.20M | 18.91M | Net Debt |
| -588.73M | -604.57M | -588.73M | -517.94M | -927.03M | -526.26M | Total Liabilities |
| 606.52M | 609.22M | 606.52M | 525.62M | 632.95M | 669.99M | Stockholders Equity |
| 1.67B | 1.66B | 1.67B | 1.81B | 2.04B | 2.47B |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | ||||
| 67.44M | 114.11M | 160.29M | -82.91M | 322.26M | 603.77M | Operating Cash Flow |
| 257.58M | 298.40M | 245.60M | -1.98M | 414.76M | 930.01M | Investing Cash Flow |
| -199.06M | -193.20M | -90.29M | -255.64M | 36.43M | -303.38M | Financing Cash Flow |
| -97.96M | -93.47M | -74.28M | -157.69M | -49.14M | -123.99M |
Centerra Gold Technical Analysis
Positive
9.64
Price Trends
9.33
Positive
9.02
Positive
8.94
Positive
Market Momentum
0.19
Positive
49.40
Neutral
20.65
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:CG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 9.64 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.67, above the 50-day MA of 9.33, and above the 200-day MA of 8.94, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.19 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 49.40 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 20.65 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:CG.
Centerra Gold Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | C$2.95B | 15.65 | 34.73% | ― | 80.44% | 3757.72% | |
76 Outperform | C$2.81B | 31.48 | 6.74% | ― | 20.03% | -46.48% | |
74 Outperform | C$2.00B | 33.47 | 2.63% | 2.76% | 1.58% | -21.40% | |
72 Outperform | C$2.52B | ― | -43.50% | 5.11% | 42.46% | -2626.56% | |
51 Neutral | $2.04B | -1.15 | -21.37% | 3.64% | 2.88% | -30.57% | |
46 Neutral | $1.98B | ― | -1.46% | ― | ― | 1.89% | |
40 Underperform | $2.27B | ― | 96.21% | ― | ― | 2.34% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
TSE:CG
Centerra Gold
9.64
0.64
7.10%
TSE:NG
Novagold Resources New
5.93
1.03
21.02%
TSE:SEA
Seabridge Gold
19.65
-0.54
-2.67%
TSE:CXB
Calibre Mining
3.28
1.44
78.26%
TSE:WDO
Wesdome Gold Mines
19.42
8.42
76.55%
TSE:ORA
Aura Minerals
34.04
22.93
206.39%
Centerra Gold Corporate Events
Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Centerra Gold Files 2024 Annual Report with SEC
Neutral
Mar 27, 2025
Centerra Gold Inc. has filed its 2024 annual report on Form 40-F with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, which includes its annual information form, audited financial statements, and management’s discussion and analysis. These filings are accessible through EDGAR and SEDAR+, as well as on the company’s website. This filing ensures compliance with regulatory requirements and provides transparency to stakeholders, potentially impacting investor confidence and market perception.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.