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Centerra Gold Inc. (TSE:CG)
:CG
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Centerra Gold (CG) AI Stock Analysis

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TSE:CG

Centerra Gold

(NYSE:CG)

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Outperform 75 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:75Outperform
Price Target:
C$17.50
▲(9.38% Upside)
Centerra Gold's strong financial performance, positive technical indicators, and attractive valuation contribute to a solid stock score. The earnings call further supports the company's growth potential, despite some operational challenges. The stock is well-positioned for future gains, with significant strengths in revenue growth and financial stability.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth
Strong revenue growth indicates robust sales momentum and market demand, supporting long-term business expansion and profitability.
Cash Generation
High free cash flow generation enhances financial flexibility, enabling strategic investments and shareholder returns, supporting sustainable growth.
Extended Mine Life
Extending the mine's life secures long-term production capacity, ensuring continued revenue streams and operational stability.
Negative Factors
Profit Margin Pressure
Declining profit margins suggest cost pressures or pricing challenges, potentially impacting long-term profitability and financial health.
Operational Challenges
Complex mineralization issues may lead to increased costs and reduced efficiency, affecting long-term operational performance and cost management.
Molybdenum Unit Deficit
Cash flow deficits in the molybdenum unit indicate financial strain, potentially diverting resources from other strategic initiatives and growth areas.

Centerra Gold (CG) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

Centerra Gold Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionCenterra Gold Inc. is a Canadian-based gold mining and exploration company engaged in the acquisition, exploration, development, and operation of gold properties in North America, Asia, and other regions. The company primarily operates two gold mines: the Kumtor Mine in Kyrgyzstan and the Mount Milligan Mine in British Columbia, Canada. Centerra Gold focuses on sustainable mining practices and strives to create value through the responsible extraction of gold and other minerals.
How the Company Makes MoneyCenterra Gold generates revenue primarily through the sale of gold. The company's key revenue streams come from the production of gold at its operational mines, particularly the Kumtor and Mount Milligan mines, where they extract gold and sell it in the market. Additionally, the company may generate revenue from by-products such as copper from the Mount Milligan Mine. Centerra Gold also benefits from strategic partnerships and joint ventures, which can enhance their operational capabilities and reduce risks associated with exploration and development. The global demand for gold, influenced by market conditions, investment trends, and economic factors, significantly affects Centerra's earnings, as higher gold prices directly lead to increased revenue from gold sales.

Centerra Gold Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Oct 28, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 19, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Centerra Gold reported strong financial performance and significant advancements in mining operations, offset by some operational challenges, particularly at Mount Milligan. The company is well-positioned for future growth with a robust cash position and increased reserves. However, the molybdenum business unit faced financial challenges, impacting overall sentiment.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Free Cash Flow and Cash Balance
Generated nearly $100 million of free cash flow. Cash balance increased to over $560 million, demonstrating financial robustness and ability to fund projects while returning capital to shareholders.
Mount Milligan Pre-Feasibility Study Success
Successfully extended the life of mine by approximately 10 years to 2045 with an optimized mine plan. Proven and probable reserves increased significantly to 4.4 million ounces of gold and 1.7 billion pounds of copper, representing a 56% and 52% increase, respectively.
Operational and Sustainability Achievements
Significant progress in sustainability initiatives, including a renewable diesel pilot project at Mount Milligan and community programs supporting over 13,000 students.
Robust Financial Performance
Adjusted net earnings in the third quarter were $66 million or $0.33 per share. Strong cash flow from operations and significant share repurchases, with $95 million returned to shareholders year-to-date.
High Commodity Prices
Benefited from elevated metal prices, which contributed to robust cash flow and financial performance.
Negative Updates
Challenges with Mineralization at Mount Milligan
Encountered zones with more complex mineralization, affecting gold recovery and increasing all-in sustaining costs by 14% compared to last quarter.
Molybdenum Business Unit Cash Flow Deficit
The molybdenum business unit used $16 million of cash in operations and had a free cash flow deficit of $54 million, mainly due to spending on the Thompson Creek restart.
Company Guidance
During Centerra Gold's Third Quarter 2025 Conference Call, the company's leadership provided detailed guidance and updates on various metrics. For the quarter, the company reported nearly $100 million in free cash flow, driven by strong operational performance and favorable metal prices. Gold and copper production reached approximately 82,000 ounces and 13.4 million pounds, respectively. Centerra's cash balance increased to over $560 million, allowing the company to fund projects like the Thompson Creek restart while returning $32 million to shareholders through share buybacks and dividends. Additionally, the Mount Milligan pre-feasibility study extended the mine's life by about 10 years, with expected average annual production of 150,000 ounces of gold and 69 million pounds of copper from 2026 to 2042. All-in sustaining costs for the quarter were reported at $1,652 per ounce, with expectations to remain near the low end of guidance for the year. Adjusted net earnings for the quarter were $66 million, or $0.33 per share. The company also announced significant growth in proven and probable reserves at Mount Milligan, reflecting a 56% increase in gold and a 52% increase in copper from the previous year-end. Centerra continues to focus on sustainability initiatives, including a renewable diesel pilot project at Mount Milligan to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Overall, Centerra maintains a robust financial position, with over $960 million in total liquidity, supporting its strategic growth and capital return initiatives.

Centerra Gold Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Centerra Gold shows strong revenue growth and a solid balance sheet with low leverage. However, profitability margins are under pressure, and cash conversion from profits has weakened, indicating challenges in sustaining margin improvements and cash flow efficiency.
Income Statement
65
Positive
Centerra Gold's income statement shows a mixed performance. The TTM data indicates a significant revenue growth rate of 49.9%, suggesting strong sales momentum. However, margins have been under pressure, with the TTM net profit margin at 6.2%, down from 24.2% in 2020. The gross profit margin has also declined from 46.5% in 2020 to 28.9% in the TTM period. Despite the revenue growth, the declining margins indicate cost pressures or pricing challenges.
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
The balance sheet reflects a solid financial position with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.011 in the TTM period, indicating minimal leverage. The return on equity has improved to 4.5% in the TTM period from negative values in previous years, showing a recovery in profitability. The equity ratio remains strong, suggesting a stable capital structure. However, the overall return on equity is still modest compared to historical highs.
Cash Flow
68
Positive
Cash flow analysis shows a positive trend with a free cash flow growth rate of 2.22% in the TTM period, recovering from negative growth in previous years. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is stable at 1.00, indicating efficient cash generation relative to earnings. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio has decreased to 0.25, suggesting less cash is being converted from profits compared to past performance.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue1.21B1.21B1.09B850.19M900.14M1.69B
Gross Profit351.01M378.05M360.51M242.57M291.96M786.04M
EBITDA264.63M305.81M143.98M59.67M300.35M130.43M
Net Income75.32M80.39M-81.28M-77.21M446.95M408.54M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets2.32B2.27B2.28B2.34B2.68B3.14B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments522.34M628.43M615.77M531.92M949.40M548.66M
Total Debt19.56M20.11M24.21M13.97M20.20M18.91M
Total Liabilities613.59M609.22M606.52M525.62M632.95M669.99M
Stockholders Equity1.70B1.66B1.67B1.81B2.04B2.47B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow68.93M114.11M160.29M-82.91M322.26M603.77M
Operating Cash Flow280.33M298.40M245.60M-1.98M414.76M930.01M
Investing Cash Flow-236.11M-193.20M-90.29M-255.64M36.43M-303.38M
Financing Cash Flow-114.31M-93.47M-74.28M-157.69M-49.14M-123.99M

Centerra Gold Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price16.00
Price Trends
50DMA
14.44
Positive
100DMA
12.16
Positive
200DMA
10.58
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.40
Positive
RSI
54.16
Neutral
STOCH
51.70
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:CG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 16 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 16.13, above the 50-day MA of 14.44, and above the 200-day MA of 10.58, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.40 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 54.16 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 51.70 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:CG.

Centerra Gold Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
76
Outperform
C$3.01B12.4042.97%69.33%253.46%
75
Outperform
C$3.26B6.9418.39%1.70%3.93%247.84%
69
Neutral
20.03%-46.48%
61
Neutral
$10.43B7.12-0.05%2.87%2.86%-36.73%
51
Neutral
39.55%-89.48%
46
Neutral
$3.23B-4.84%-630.10%
40
Underperform
$4.54B-129.07%-92.71%
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE:CG
Centerra Gold
16.00
7.30
83.82%
TSE:NG
Novagold Resources New
11.06
6.28
131.38%
TSE:SEA
Seabridge Gold
31.53
8.18
35.03%
TSE:CXB
Calibre Mining
2.99
0.70
30.57%
TSE:ORA
Aura Minerals
45.97
29.81
184.47%
TSE:WDO
Wesdome Gold Mines
20.35
8.20
67.49%

Centerra Gold Corporate Events

Centerra Gold’s Strong Q3 2025 Performance and Growth Plans
Oct 30, 2025

Centerra Gold Inc. is a Canadian-based mining company engaged in the exploration, development, and operation of gold and copper properties, with significant projects in North America and Türkiye. In its third quarter of 2025, Centerra Gold reported strong financial results, bolstered by robust production at its Öksüt mine and favorable metal prices, leading to a cash balance of $562 million. The company generated nearly $100 million in free cash flow and returned $32 million to shareholders through share buybacks and dividends. Key highlights include a 10-year mine life extension at Mount Milligan, a strategic investment in Liberty Gold Corp., and the advancement of the Goldfield project in Nevada. Centerra’s net earnings for the quarter reached $292.2 million, with adjusted net earnings of $66.4 million. The company maintained a strong liquidity position with $961.8 million in total liquidity. Looking ahead, Centerra Gold remains focused on its self-funded growth strategy, with plans to extend its asset life and enhance production capabilities, supported by a robust pipeline of projects and a strategic approach to capital allocation.

Centerra Gold Reports Strong Q3 2025 Results and Leadership Transition
Oct 28, 2025

On October 28, 2025, Centerra Gold Inc. reported strong third-quarter results, highlighting robust production at the Öksüt Mine and favorable metal prices, which increased the company’s cash balance to $562 million. The company announced a strategic focus on self-funded growth, including the extension of the Mount Milligan mine life to 2045 and the development of the Goldfield project. Centerra also announced a leadership transition with Paul Wright succeeding Michael Parrett as Chair of the Board, effective January 1, 2026, reflecting continued leadership strength. The company returned $32 million to shareholders through share buybacks and dividends, while maintaining a strong financial position to support future growth initiatives.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:CG) stock is a Buy with a C$13.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Centerra Gold stock, see the TSE:CG Stock Forecast page.

Centerra Gold Declares C$0.07 Quarterly Dividend
Oct 28, 2025

On October 28, 2025, Centerra Gold Inc. announced that its Board of Directors approved a quarterly dividend of C$0.07 per common share, totaling approximately C$14.1 million or US$10.1 million. This dividend, payable on November 26, 2025, reflects the company’s financial health and commitment to returning value to shareholders, considering its operating results, cash flow, and capital requirements.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:CG) stock is a Buy with a C$13.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Centerra Gold stock, see the TSE:CG Stock Forecast page.

Centerra Gold Reports Strong Q3 2025 Financial Results
Oct 28, 2025

Centerra Gold Inc. released its condensed consolidated interim financial statements for the third quarter of 2025, showing a strong financial position with total assets increasing to $2.69 billion from $2.27 billion at the end of 2024. The company’s financial performance reflects solid operational management, with significant growth in current assets and shareholders’ equity, indicating a positive outlook for stakeholders and potential for future expansion.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:CG) stock is a Buy with a C$13.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Centerra Gold stock, see the TSE:CG Stock Forecast page.

Centerra Gold Files Technical Report for Mount Milligan Mine
Oct 21, 2025

On October 21, 2025, Centerra Gold Inc. announced the filing of a technical report for its Mount Milligan Mine in British Columbia, Canada. This report, prepared in accordance with National Instrument 43-101, supports previous disclosures made in September 2025. The filing underscores Centerra’s commitment to transparency and regulatory compliance, potentially strengthening its position in the mining industry and providing stakeholders with detailed insights into the mine’s operations.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:CG) stock is a Sell with a C$7.90 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Centerra Gold stock, see the TSE:CG Stock Forecast page.

Centerra Gold Releases Technical Report on Mount Milligan Mine
Oct 21, 2025

On October 17, 2025, Centerra Gold Inc. released a technical report for its Mount Milligan Mine located in North-Central British Columbia. The report, effective as of June 30, 2025, provides detailed insights into the mine’s operations, including mineral reserves, production expectations, and associated risks. This announcement is crucial for stakeholders as it outlines the mine’s future production capabilities and potential financial outcomes, impacting Centerra’s strategic positioning in the mining industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:CG) stock is a Sell with a C$7.90 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Centerra Gold stock, see the TSE:CG Stock Forecast page.

Centerra Gold to Announce Q3 2025 Results and Host Conference Call
Oct 2, 2025

Centerra Gold Inc. announced on October 2, 2025, that it will release its third-quarter 2025 operating and financial results on October 28, 2025. The company will host a conference call and webcast on October 29, 2025, to discuss these results. This announcement is significant as it provides stakeholders with insights into the company’s recent performance and future outlook, potentially impacting investor decisions and market perceptions.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:CG) stock is a Hold with a C$15.75 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Centerra Gold stock, see the TSE:CG Stock Forecast page.

Centerra Gold Extends Mount Milligan Mine Life to 2045 with Strategic Investment
Sep 11, 2025

On September 11, 2025, Centerra Gold announced a 10-year extension of the life of its Mount Milligan mine in British Columbia, now projected to operate until 2045. This extension is supported by a $186 million growth capital plan, including increased plant capacity and a new tailings storage facility, reinforcing Mount Milligan’s role as a low-cost, long-term asset. The Pre-Feasibility Study highlights significant increases in mineral reserves and robust economic potential, with an after-tax NPV of $1.5 billion, further solidifying Mount Milligan as a cornerstone asset in Centerra’s portfolio.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:CG) stock is a Hold with a C$14.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Centerra Gold stock, see the TSE:CG Stock Forecast page.

Centerra Gold’s Earnings Call: Strong Results Amid Challenges
Aug 13, 2025

Centerra Gold Inc.’s recent earnings call painted a picture of robust financial performance driven by favorable commodity prices and strategic advancements, though tempered by operational challenges. The company reported strong earnings, underscored by significant progress in sustainability and strategic projects. However, issues with mineralization at Mount Milligan and rising costs at Oksut contributed to a balanced outlook for the future.

Centerra Gold Reports Strong Q2 2025 Results
Aug 8, 2025

Centerra Gold Inc., a Canadian-based mining company, operates in the gold and copper sectors with key assets in North America and Türkiye, including the Mount Milligan and Öksüt mines. The company is also advancing projects like Goldfield in Nevada and Kemess in British Columbia.

Centerra Gold Advances Goldfield Project with Promising Economics
Aug 6, 2025

On August 6, 2025, Centerra Gold announced the completion of a technical study for its Goldfield Project in Nevada, revealing attractive economics with an after-tax NPV of $245 million and an IRR of 30%. The project is set to proceed with development and construction, aiming for first production by the end of 2028. The Goldfield Project is expected to enhance Centerra’s gold production profile, with a projected average annual production of 100,000 ounces during peak years and a mine life of approximately seven years. The company plans to fund the project from existing liquidity, benefiting from a supportive gold price environment and a strategic hedging strategy to secure strong margins.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:CG) stock is a Sell with a C$5.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Centerra Gold stock, see the TSE:CG Stock Forecast page.

Centerra Gold Reports Strong Q2 2025 Results and Advances Goldfield Project
Aug 6, 2025

On August 6, 2025, Centerra Gold Inc. reported its second quarter 2025 results, highlighting a strong operational cash flow of $98 million driven by high commodity prices. The company updated its 2025 gold production and cost guidance due to changes in mining zones and royalty structures. Centerra is advancing the Goldfield project in Nevada, which promises strong returns with an after-tax NPV of $245 million and an IRR of 30%. The project is expected to enhance Centerra’s gold production and is set for first production by the end of 2028, funded by existing liquidity. The company also increased its share buybacks by 80% to $27 million in the quarter, reflecting confidence in its long-term growth strategy.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:CG) stock is a Sell with a C$5.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Centerra Gold stock, see the TSE:CG Stock Forecast page.

Centerra Gold Declares C$0.07 Quarterly Dividend
Aug 6, 2025

On August 6, 2025, Centerra Gold announced that its Board of Directors has approved a quarterly dividend of C$0.07 per common share, totaling approximately C$14.3 million or US$10.5 million. This dividend is payable on September 4, 2025, to shareholders of record as of August 21, 2025. The decision reflects the company’s financial health and commitment to returning value to shareholders, indicating a stable economic position and positive outlook for stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:CG) stock is a Sell with a C$5.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Centerra Gold stock, see the TSE:CG Stock Forecast page.

Centerra Gold Reports Q2 2025 Financial Results
Aug 6, 2025

Centerra Gold Inc. has released its condensed consolidated interim financial statements for the second quarter of 2025, showing a decrease in cash and cash equivalents from $624.7 million at the end of 2024 to $522.3 million as of June 30, 2025. The report also highlights an increase in total assets from $2.27 billion to $2.32 billion, indicating ongoing investments in property, plant, and equipment. These financial results reflect Centerra’s strategic focus on enhancing its asset base while managing liquidity, which may impact its market positioning and stakeholder interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:CG) stock is a Sell with a C$5.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Centerra Gold stock, see the TSE:CG Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Nov 05, 2025