Centerra Gold (CG) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $4.45B
• Dividend Yield: 1.36%
• Average Volume (3M): 735.11K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 9.7
• Beta (1Y): 1.73
• Revenue Growth: 3.93%
• EPS Growth: 247.84%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 3,650
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Gold
• EPS (TTM): 0.44
• Shares Outstanding: 201,731,080
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 697,728
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 735,112
• PEG Ratio: -0.08
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.73
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 10.64
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.51
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.78
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 6.03
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 4.09
• 1Y Price Target: $20.15
• Price Target Upside: -9.73% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 77 Outperform
• Price Target: C$25.00 ▲(12.01% Upside)

Centerra Gold's overall stock score reflects its strong financial performance, attractive valuation, and positive technical indicators. The company's robust earnings call further supports its growth potential, despite some operational challenges. The stock is well-positioned for future gains, with a solid balance sheet and strategic initiatives in place.

Positive Factors

Balance sheet strength

Extremely low leverage (debt-to-equity ~0.011) and a healthy equity ratio give Centerra durable financial flexibility. This reduces refinancing risk across commodity cycles, supports capital allocation to projects and returns, and preserves capacity to fund growth without eroding liquidity.

Cash generation and liquidity

Sustained free cash flow and a large cash balance enhance the company's ability to fund capital projects, restart assets like Thompson Creek, and return capital to shareholders. Strong liquidity also buffers commodity volatility and supports multi-year project timelines and strategic optionality.

Reserve growth & mine life extension

Material reserve increases and a roughly 10-year life extension at Mount Milligan materially de-risk production profile and extend cash flow visibility. Larger gold and copper reserves underpin long-term output, support scale economies, and improve the odds of sustained returns from an optimized mine plan.

Negative Factors

Complex mineralization at Mount Milligan

Persistent complex mineralization that reduces recoveries and raises all-in sustaining costs represents a structural operational risk. If higher processing challenges persist, margins and per-ounce economics could be structurally weaker, requiring capex or process changes to restore prior cost levels.

Molybdenum unit cash drain

A material free cash flow deficit in the molybdenum unit, driven by restart spending at Thompson Creek, creates a persistent cash drain and execution risk. Continued capital or operating support could divert liquidity and management focus away from higher-return projects or shareholder returns.

Margin compression

Declining EBIT and EBITDA margins point to structural cost pressures or efficiency shortfalls that can erode cash conversion and return on capital over time. Unless offset by higher metal prices or productivity gains, margin compression will limit reinvestment capacity and long-term profitability.

Centerra Gold Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Centerra Gold Inc., a gold mining company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and operation of gold and copper properties in North America, Turkey, and internationally. The company explores for gold, copper, and molybdenum deposits. Its flagship projects include the 100% owned Mount Milligan gold-copper mine located in British Columbia, Canada; and the Öksüt Gold Mine located in Turkey. The company was incorporated in 2002 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.

How the Company Makes Money

Centerra Gold primarily generates revenue through the sale of gold and copper produced at its mining operations. The company operates mines that extract gold from ore, which is then sold in the form of bullion to various customers, including banks and jewelry manufacturers. Key revenue streams include the sale of gold, copper, and other by-products from its mining operations. Additionally, Centerra Gold may engage in forward sales or hedging strategies to manage price risk. The company benefits from partnerships with local governments and stakeholders, which can enhance operational stability and access to resources. Factors contributing to its earnings include gold market prices, production volumes, and operational efficiencies.

Centerra Gold Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Centerra Gold demonstrates a solid financial position with improving revenue and cash flow trends. The company maintains a strong balance sheet with low leverage, though operational margins have faced some pressure. Overall, the financial health is robust, with opportunities for enhancing profitability and cash flow efficiency.

Income Statement

Centerra Gold's income statement shows a positive trajectory with a TTM revenue growth rate of 5.87%, indicating recovery from previous declines. The gross profit margin is stable at around 29%, while the net profit margin has improved to 6.20% in the TTM. However, the EBIT and EBITDA margins have decreased compared to previous years, suggesting some operational challenges.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is strong with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.011, indicating minimal leverage and financial stability. The return on equity is modest at 4.45%, reflecting moderate profitability. The equity ratio remains healthy, showcasing a solid capital structure.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals significant improvement in free cash flow growth at 88.75% in the TTM, indicating enhanced cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is stable at 1.00, but the free cash flow to net income ratio is relatively low at 0.25, suggesting room for improvement in cash conversion efficiency.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.29B	1.21B	1.09B	850.19M	900.14M	1.69B
Gross Profit	380.07M	378.05M	360.51M	242.57M	291.96M	786.04M
EBITDA	559.91M	305.81M	143.98M	59.67M	300.35M	130.43M
Net Income	338.72M	80.39M	-81.28M	-77.21M	446.95M	408.54M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.69B	2.27B	2.28B	2.34B	2.68B	3.14B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	568.23M	628.43M	615.77M	531.92M	949.40M	548.66M
Total Debt	17.62M	20.11M	24.21M	13.97M	20.20M	18.91M
Total Liabilities	750.52M	609.22M	606.52M	525.62M	632.95M	669.99M
Stockholders Equity	1.94B	1.66B	1.67B	1.81B	2.04B	2.47B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	130.12M	114.11M	160.29M	-82.91M	322.26M	603.77M
Operating Cash Flow	338.34M	298.40M	245.60M	-1.98M	414.76M	930.01M
Investing Cash Flow	-256.49M	-193.20M	-90.29M	-255.64M	36.43M	-303.38M
Financing Cash Flow	-124.40M	-93.47M	-74.28M	-157.69M	-49.14M	-123.99M

Centerra Gold Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 22.32
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:CG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 22.32 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 20.35, above the 50-day MA of 18.56, and above the 200-day MA of 12.84, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.94 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 75.25 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 91.09 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:CG.

Centerra Gold Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
WDO	81 Outperform	C$3.83B	13.20	42.97%	―	69.33%	253.46%
CG	77 Outperform	$4.45B	9.67	18.39%	1.36%	3.93%	247.84%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
MAU	60 Neutral	C$3.64B	-35.29	-48.70%	―	―	-53.84%
AAUC	60 Neutral	C$4.52B	-81.12	-14.03%	―	49.65%	71.84%
SEA	52 Neutral	C$4.52B	-81.21	-5.19%	―	―	-267.06%
SGD	49 Neutral	C$3.14B	-59.06	-50.94%	―	―	―