Centerra Gold (CG) AI Stock Analysis

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Centerra Gold

(TSX:CG)

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Neutral 69 (OpenAI - 4o)

Rating:69Neutral

Price Target:

C$10.50

▼(-26.37% Downside)

Centerra Gold's overall stock score reflects robust revenue growth and a strong balance sheet, despite challenges in profitability margins and cash flow conversion. Technical indicators suggest a neutral trend, and the valuation is fair. The earnings call provided positive insights into production and growth initiatives, contributing to a balanced outlook.

Positive Factors

Negative Factors

Centerra Gold (CG) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

Market Cap

$2.77B

Dividend Yield1.96%

Average Volume (3M)1.64M

Price to Earnings (P/E)27.0

Beta (1Y)1.56

Revenue Growth-4.17%

EPS Growth-40.92%

CountryCA

Employees3,650

SectorBasic Materials

Sector Strength58

IndustryGold

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.35

Shares Outstanding203,306,950

10 Day Avg. Volume2,693,488

30 Day Avg. Volume1,640,745

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG RatioN/A

Price to Book (P/B)N/A

Price to Sales (P/S)N/A

P/FCF RatioN/A

Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.50

Enterprise Value/Revenue1.14

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.93

Enterprise Value/Ebitda5.21

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$13.41

Price Target Upside-5.93% Downside

Rating ConsensusModerate Buy

Number of Analyst Covering9

Centerra Gold Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionCenterra Gold Inc. is a Canadian-based gold mining and exploration company engaged in the acquisition, exploration, development, and operation of gold properties in North America, Asia, and other regions. The company primarily operates two gold mines: the Kumtor Mine in Kyrgyzstan and the Mount Milligan Mine in British Columbia, Canada. Centerra Gold focuses on sustainable mining practices and strives to create value through the responsible extraction of gold and other minerals.

How the Company Makes MoneyCenterra Gold generates revenue primarily through the sale of gold. The company's key revenue streams come from the production of gold at its operational mines, particularly the Kumtor and Mount Milligan mines, where they extract gold and sell it in the market. Additionally, the company may generate revenue from by-products such as copper from the Mount Milligan Mine. Centerra Gold also benefits from strategic partnerships and joint ventures, which can enhance their operational capabilities and reduce risks associated with exploration and development. The global demand for gold, influenced by market conditions, investment trends, and economic factors, significantly affects Centerra's earnings, as higher gold prices directly lead to increased revenue from gold sales.

Centerra Gold Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 06, 2025

(Q2-2025)

% Change Since: |

Next Earnings Date:Oct 30, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

The earnings call reflects a mixture of strong production metrics and strategic growth initiatives, offset by operational challenges and increased costs. However, the company's financial performance showed improvement, and sustainability milestones were achieved. Shareholder returns through buybacks and dividends were highlighted, suggesting a balanced approach to capital allocation.

Q2-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Strong Production and Growth Initiatives

Gold and copper production in the quarter was over 63,000 ounces and 12.4 million pounds of copper. The company is making significant progress on studies supporting long-life copper-gold organic growth in British Columbia and advancing the Goldfield Project in Nevada.

Improved Financial Performance

Adjusted net earnings in the second quarter were $53 million or $0.26 per share, benefiting from strong metal prices. Cash flow from operations increased by 22% over the last quarter, generating a total of $98 million.

Sustainability Milestones Achieved

Centerra Gold published its 2024 sustainability report and achieved full compliance with the International Cyanide Management Code. The company also strengthened partnerships with indigenous-owned businesses, reaching 19% indigenous employee representation.

Shareholder Returns

The company increased share buybacks by 80% compared to the previous quarter, repurchasing 3.9 million shares for $27 million, and declared a quarterly dividend of $0.07 per share.

Negative Updates

Challenging Mineralization at Mount Milligan

Mining operations encountered zones with more challenging mineralization, resulting in lower-than-anticipated gold grades. This prompted a revision of 2025 gold production guidance to 145,000-165,000 ounces.

Increased Costs at Oksut

All-in sustaining costs on a byproduct basis were $1,755 per ounce, driven by higher royalty expenses due to elevated gold prices and an updated royalty structure approved by the Turkish government.

Free Cash Flow Deficit

The company reported a free cash flow deficit of $25 million for the quarter, with Oksut and the molybdenum business unit contributing to cash flow deficits due to tax, royalty payments, and spending on the Thompson Creek restart.

Company Guidance

During the Centerra Gold Second Quarter 2025 Conference Call, the company provided detailed guidance on its operations and financial metrics. Gold and copper production in the quarter exceeded 63,000 ounces and 12.4 million pounds, respectively. The company updated its 2025 gold production guidance for Mount Milligan to between 145,000 and 165,000 ounces and reaffirmed its copper production guidance of 50 million to 60 million pounds. All-in sustaining costs on a byproduct basis were adjusted to $1,350 to $1,450 per ounce, reflecting updated production guidance. The Goldfield Project is expected to have a 7-year mine life with an average annual production of around 100,000 ounces. The project has a competitive initial capital cost of $252 million and an after-tax NPV of $245 million with an after-tax IRR of 30%. Centerra's financial results for the quarter showed adjusted net earnings of $53 million or $0.26 per share, with consolidated all-in sustaining costs on a byproduct basis of $1,652 per ounce. The company reported a free cash flow deficit of $25 million for the quarter, despite an increase in cash flow from operations to $98 million. Centerra remains committed to its share buyback program, repurchasing 3.9 million shares for $27 million in the quarter, and declared a quarterly dividend of $0.07 per share. The company maintains a strong liquidity position with over $920 million, enabling it to fund its organic growth projects while continuing to return capital to shareholders.

Centerra Gold Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Centerra Gold shows strong revenue growth and a solid balance sheet with low leverage. However, profitability margins are under pressure, and cash conversion from profits has weakened, indicating challenges in sustaining margin improvements and cash flow efficiency.

Income Statement

Positive

Centerra Gold's income statement shows a mixed performance. The TTM data indicates a significant revenue growth rate of 49.9%, suggesting strong sales momentum. However, margins have been under pressure, with the TTM net profit margin at 6.2%, down from 24.2% in 2020. The gross profit margin has also declined from 46.5% in 2020 to 28.9% in the TTM period. Despite the revenue growth, the declining margins indicate cost pressures or pricing challenges.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The balance sheet reflects a solid financial position with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.011 in the TTM period, indicating minimal leverage. The return on equity has improved to 4.5% in the TTM period from negative values in previous years, showing a recovery in profitability. The equity ratio remains strong, suggesting a stable capital structure. However, the overall return on equity is still modest compared to historical highs.

Cash Flow

Positive

Cash flow analysis shows a positive trend with a free cash flow growth rate of 2.22% in the TTM period, recovering from negative growth in previous years. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is stable at 1.00, indicating efficient cash generation relative to earnings. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio has decreased to 0.25, suggesting less cash is being converted from profits compared to past performance.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.21B	1.21B	1.09B	850.19M	900.14M	1.69B
Gross Profit	351.01M	378.05M	360.51M	242.57M	291.96M	786.04M
EBITDA	264.63M	305.81M	143.98M	59.67M	300.35M	130.43M
Net Income	75.32M	80.39M	-81.28M	-77.21M	446.95M	408.54M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.32B	2.27B	2.28B	2.34B	2.68B	3.14B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	522.34M	628.43M	615.77M	531.92M	949.40M	548.66M
Total Debt	19.56M	20.11M	24.21M	13.97M	20.20M	18.91M
Total Liabilities	613.59M	609.22M	606.52M	525.62M	632.95M	669.99M
Stockholders Equity	1.70B	1.66B	1.67B	1.81B	2.04B	2.47B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	68.93M	114.11M	160.29M	-82.91M	322.26M	603.77M
Operating Cash Flow	280.33M	298.40M	245.60M	-1.98M	414.76M	930.01M
Investing Cash Flow	-236.11M	-193.20M	-90.29M	-255.64M	36.43M	-303.38M
Financing Cash Flow	-114.31M	-93.47M	-74.28M	-157.69M	-49.14M	-123.99M

Centerra Gold Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Positive

Last Price14.26

Price Trends

50DMA

11.06

Positive

100DMA

10.38

Positive

200DMA

9.48

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

0.83

Negative

RSI

84.71

Negative

STOCH

91.49

Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:CG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 14.26 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 12.64, above the 50-day MA of 11.06, and above the 200-day MA of 9.48, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.83 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 84.71 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 91.49 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:CG.

Centerra Gold Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (61)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
WDO	73 Outperform	3.17B	13.08	32.74%	―	81.12%	514.82%
CG	69 Neutral	$2.77B	26.99	4.38%	1.96%	-4.17%	-40.92%
ORA	51 Neutral	3.80B	-38.71	-43.20%	2.98%	39.55%	-89.48%
SEA	46 Neutral	3.12B	-58.23	―	―	―	-630.10%
NG	40 Underperform	4.70B	-33.42	―	―	―	-87.72%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%

* Basic Materials Sector Average

Performance Comparison

TSE:CG

Centerra Gold

14.26

4.54

46.69%

Novagold Resources New

8.30

4.07

96.22%

Seabridge Gold

21.90

4.68

27.18%

TSE:CXB

Calibre Mining

2.99

0.34

12.83%

TSE:ORA

Aura Minerals

45.97

31.06

208.32%

TSE:WDO

Wesdome Gold Mines

21.00

8.15

63.42%

Centerra Gold Corporate Events

Regulatory Filings and Compliance

Centerra Gold Files 2024 Annual Report with SEC

Neutral

Mar 27, 2025

Centerra Gold Inc. has filed its 2024 annual report on Form 40-F with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, which includes its annual information form, audited financial statements, and management’s discussion and analysis. These filings are accessible through EDGAR and SEDAR+, as well as on the company’s website. This filing ensures compliance with regulatory requirements and provides transparency to stakeholders, potentially impacting investor confidence and market perception.

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 20, 2025