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Centerra Gold (TSE:CG)
TSX:CG
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Centerra Gold
(TSX:CG)
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Rating:77Outperform
Price Target:
C$33.00
▲(24.86% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/21/26
The score is driven primarily by financial strength (low leverage and flexibility) and supportive technical momentum (price above key moving averages with positive MACD). Earnings-call takeaways add upside via strong cash generation, liquidity, and reserve/mine-life improvements, while uneven profitability/free cash flow and operational cost/recovery challenges temper the overall rating. Valuation is reasonable on P/E but less compelling on yield.
Positive Factors
Strong balance sheet / low leverage
Very low leverage and a sizable equity base give Centerra durable financial flexibility to fund capital programs, weather commodity cycles and absorb operational shocks. This structural balance-sheet strength reduces refinancing risk and supports project funding and sustained capital returns.
Mount Milligan reserve & mine-life extension
A ~10-year life extension and large reserve increases at Mount Milligan materially improve multi-year production visibility. Expected steady annual output from 2026–2042 supports predictable cash generation, lowers long-term growth risk and strengthens the company's core asset base.
Recent strong liquidity and cash generation
Recent generation of ~US$100m FCF and a cash balance north of US$560m provide durable liquidity to fund restarts, sustain capex and execute buybacks/dividends. That financial buffer enhances strategic optionality and resilience across multi-month commodity or operational swings.
Negative Factors
Volatile free cash flow conversion
Free cash flow volatility and consecutive contractions in 2024–2025 signal inconsistent conversion of profits into distributable cash. This reduces predictability for reinvestment, debt paydown and sustained shareholder returns, complicating medium-term planning and capital allocation.
Mount Milligan recovery & cost pressures
Complex mineralization and reduced recoveries at Mount Milligan have driven a meaningful rise in AISC. If these geological issues persist, they pose a structural risk to unit costs and margins, potentially eroding the long-term cash yield from a key producing asset.
Molybdenum unit cash flow deficit (Thompson Creek)
Restart spending at Thompson Creek has produced sustained cash outflows and a significant FCF deficit in the molybdenum unit. Continued negative cash contribution from this asset could drain liquidity, delay payback and increase execution risk over the medium term.
Centerra Gold (CG) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$5.29B
Dividend Yield1.36%
Average Volume (3M)1.21M
Price to Earnings (P/E)5.0
Beta (1Y)1.80
Revenue Growth3.93%
EPS Growth247.84%
CountryCA
Employees3,650
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryGold
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.56
Shares Outstanding200,093,490
10 Day Avg. Volume1,113,807
30 Day Avg. Volume1,214,485
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio<0.01
Price to Book (P/B)1.43
Price to Sales (P/S)2.22
P/FCF Ratio31.12
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$29.97Price Target Upside13.38% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)1.9
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$1.61B
Centerra Gold Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionCenterra Gold Inc., a gold mining company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and operation of gold and copper properties in North America, Turkey, and internationally. The company explores for gold, copper, and molybdenum deposits. Its flagship projects include the 100% owned Mount Milligan gold-copper mine located in British Columbia, Canada; and the Öksüt Gold Mine located in Turkey. The company was incorporated in 2002 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.
How the Company Makes MoneyCenterra Gold primarily generates revenue through the sale of gold and copper produced at its mining operations. The company operates mines that extract gold from ore, which is then sold in the form of bullion to various customers, including banks and jewelry manufacturers. Key revenue streams include the sale of gold, copper, and other by-products from its mining operations. Additionally, Centerra Gold may engage in forward sales or hedging strategies to manage price risk. The company benefits from partnerships with local governments and stakeholders, which can enhance operational stability and access to resources. Factors contributing to its earnings include gold market prices, production volumes, and operational efficiencies.
Centerra Gold Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Oct 28, 2025
(Q3-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Centerra Gold reported strong financial performance and significant advancements in mining operations, offset by some operational challenges, particularly at Mount Milligan. The company is well-positioned for future growth with a robust cash position and increased reserves. However, the molybdenum business unit faced financial challenges, impacting overall sentiment.Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Free Cash Flow and Cash Balance
Generated nearly $100 million of free cash flow. Cash balance increased to over $560 million, demonstrating financial robustness and ability to fund projects while returning capital to shareholders.
Mount Milligan Pre-Feasibility Study Success
Successfully extended the life of mine by approximately 10 years to 2045 with an optimized mine plan. Proven and probable reserves increased significantly to 4.4 million ounces of gold and 1.7 billion pounds of copper, representing a 56% and 52% increase, respectively.
Operational and Sustainability Achievements
Significant progress in sustainability initiatives, including a renewable diesel pilot project at Mount Milligan and community programs supporting over 13,000 students.
Robust Financial Performance
Adjusted net earnings in the third quarter were $66 million or $0.33 per share. Strong cash flow from operations and significant share repurchases, with $95 million returned to shareholders year-to-date.
High Commodity Prices
Benefited from elevated metal prices, which contributed to robust cash flow and financial performance.
Negative Updates
Challenges with Mineralization at Mount Milligan
Encountered zones with more complex mineralization, affecting gold recovery and increasing all-in sustaining costs by 14% compared to last quarter.
Molybdenum Business Unit Cash Flow Deficit
The molybdenum business unit used $16 million of cash in operations and had a free cash flow deficit of $54 million, mainly due to spending on the Thompson Creek restart.
Company Guidance
During Centerra Gold's Third Quarter 2025 Conference Call, the company's leadership provided detailed guidance and updates on various metrics. For the quarter, the company reported nearly $100 million in free cash flow, driven by strong operational performance and favorable metal prices. Gold and copper production reached approximately 82,000 ounces and 13.4 million pounds, respectively. Centerra's cash balance increased to over $560 million, allowing the company to fund projects like the Thompson Creek restart while returning $32 million to shareholders through share buybacks and dividends. Additionally, the Mount Milligan pre-feasibility study extended the mine's life by about 10 years, with expected average annual production of 150,000 ounces of gold and 69 million pounds of copper from 2026 to 2042. All-in sustaining costs for the quarter were reported at $1,652 per ounce, with expectations to remain near the low end of guidance for the year. Adjusted net earnings for the quarter were $66 million, or $0.33 per share. The company also announced significant growth in proven and probable reserves at Mount Milligan, reflecting a 56% increase in gold and a 52% increase in copper from the previous year-end. Centerra continues to focus on sustainability initiatives, including a renewable diesel pilot project at Mount Milligan to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Overall, Centerra maintains a robust financial position, with over $960 million in total liquidity, supporting its strategic growth and capital return initiatives.Centerra Gold Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Strong balance sheet with very low leverage and solid equity base supports resilience. Revenue trend is improving, but multi-year earnings volatility and inconsistent free cash flow conversion (including recent FCF contraction) reduce predictability.Income Statement
Revenue has trended upward over the period, with growth accelerating in 2023–2025, showing improving top-line momentum. Profitability, however, has been volatile: the company swung from losses in 2022–2023 to positive net income in 2024 and a very strong profit outcome in 2025. Margins were solid in 2024, but the multi-year earnings variability reduces predictability and keeps the score below the top tier.72
Positive
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet is a clear strength: debt is very low relative to equity across the years, indicating conservative leverage and strong financial flexibility. Equity remains sizable versus total assets, supporting resilience through commodity cycles. The main weakness is that returns on equity have been inconsistent due to earnings swings (negative in 2022–2023, positive again in 2024), but overall balance-sheet risk appears low.86
Very Positive
Cash Flow
Cash generation is mixed. Operating cash flow has generally been positive and improved after a weak 2022, supporting ongoing operations, but free cash flow has been volatile and recently contracted (free cash flow declined in 2024 and again in 2025). Cash flow strength looks adequate, yet variability and a less consistent conversion of profits into free cash flow limit the score.63
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 1.33B | 1.21B | 1.09B | 850.19M | 900.14M |
| Gross Profit | 326.10M | 378.05M | 360.51M | 242.57M | 291.96M |
| EBITDA | 366.41M | 305.81M | 143.98M | 59.67M | 300.35M |
| Net Income | 594.21M | 80.39M | -81.28M | -77.21M | 446.95M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 2.94B | 2.27B | 2.28B | 2.34B | 2.68B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 539.91M | 628.43M | 615.77M | 531.92M | 949.40M |
| Total Debt | 29.60M | 20.11M | 24.21M | 13.97M | 20.20M |
| Total Liabilities | 884.28M | 609.22M | 606.52M | 525.62M | 632.95M |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.06B | 1.66B | 1.67B | 1.81B | 2.04B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 94.62M | 114.11M | 160.29M | -82.91M | 322.26M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 352.67M | 298.40M | 245.60M | -1.98M | 414.76M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -309.24M | -193.20M | -90.29M | -255.64M | 36.43M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -140.85M | -93.47M | -74.28M | -157.69M | -49.14M |
Centerra Gold Technical Analysis
Positive
26.43
Price Trends
23.84
Positive
20.51
Positive
15.67
Positive
Market Momentum
0.99
Positive
54.37
Neutral
55.18
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:CG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 26.43 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 25.82, above the 50-day MA of 23.84, and above the 200-day MA of 15.67, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.99 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 54.37 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 55.18 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:CG.
Centerra Gold Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
81 Outperform | C$3.84B | 9.41 | 42.97% | ― | 69.33% | 253.46% | |
77 Outperform | C$5.29B | 4.96 | 31.43% | 1.36% | 3.93% | 247.84% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
56 Neutral | C$5.33B | -28.57 | -14.04% | ― | 49.65% | 71.84% | |
54 Neutral | C$5.70B | -97.27 | -48.70% | ― | ― | -53.84% | |
52 Neutral | C$5.07B | -26.61 | -5.19% | ― | ― | -267.06% | |
49 Neutral | C$3.01B | -15.46 | -50.94% | ― | ― | ― |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
TSE:CG
Centerra Gold
25.17
16.95
206.06%
TSE:SEA
Seabridge Gold
45.43
29.10
178.20%
TSE:WDO
Wesdome Gold Mines
23.40
8.46
56.63%
TSE:MAU
Montage Gold Corp.
14.92
12.53
524.27%
TSE:SGD
Snowline Gold Corp.
18.36
11.21
156.78%
TSE:AAUC
Allied Gold Corporation
42.74
28.25
194.96%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.