Centerra Gold (CG) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.37B
• Dividend Yield: 2.43%
• Average Volume (3M): 877.65K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 23.1
• Beta (1Y): 1.52
• Revenue Growth: -4.17%
• EPS Growth: -40.92%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 3,650
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 66
• Industry: Gold
• EPS (TTM): 0.34
• Shares Outstanding: 203,306,950
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 910,580
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 877,651
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.58
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.14
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.93
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 5.21
• 1Y Price Target: $13.19
• Price Target Upside: 14.66% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 8

• Rating: 69 Neutral
• Price Target: C$10.50 ▼(-8.70% Downside)

Centerra Gold's overall stock score reflects robust revenue growth and a strong balance sheet, despite challenges in profitability margins and cash flow conversion. Technical indicators suggest a neutral trend, and the valuation is fair. The earnings call provided positive insights into production and growth initiatives, contributing to a balanced outlook.

Positive Factors

Financial Performance

Centerra is well-positioned vis-à-vis its peers given relatively steady operational outlook, stable jurisdictional exposure, a strong balance sheet, and peer-leading FCF and capital returns.

Operational Expansion

The definitive feasibility study for Centerra's molybdenum business unit envisages restart of the Thompson Creek mine.

Negative Factors

Operational Challenges

The Langeloth metallurgical facility is already operational, and processes third-party molybdenum concentrate at reduced capacity (~30%).

Centerra Gold Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Centerra Gold Inc., a gold mining company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and operation of gold and copper properties in North America, Turkey, and internationally. The company explores for gold, copper, and molybdenum deposits. Its flagship projects include the 100% owned Mount Milligan gold-copper mine located in British Columbia, Canada; and the Öksüt Gold Mine located in Turkey. The company was incorporated in 2002 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.

How the Company Makes Money

Centerra Gold generates revenue primarily through the sale of gold. The company's key revenue streams come from the production of gold at its operational mines, particularly the Kumtor and Mount Milligan mines, where they extract gold and sell it in the market. Additionally, the company may generate revenue from by-products such as copper from the Mount Milligan Mine. Centerra Gold also benefits from strategic partnerships and joint ventures, which can enhance their operational capabilities and reduce risks associated with exploration and development. The global demand for gold, influenced by market conditions, investment trends, and economic factors, significantly affects Centerra's earnings, as higher gold prices directly lead to increased revenue from gold sales.

Centerra Gold Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Centerra Gold shows strong revenue growth and a solid balance sheet with low leverage. However, profitability margins are under pressure, and cash conversion from profits has weakened, indicating challenges in sustaining margin improvements and cash flow efficiency.

Income Statement

Centerra Gold's income statement shows a mixed performance. The TTM data indicates a significant revenue growth rate of 49.9%, suggesting strong sales momentum. However, margins have been under pressure, with the TTM net profit margin at 6.2%, down from 24.2% in 2020. The gross profit margin has also declined from 46.5% in 2020 to 28.9% in the TTM period. Despite the revenue growth, the declining margins indicate cost pressures or pricing challenges.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a solid financial position with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.011 in the TTM period, indicating minimal leverage. The return on equity has improved to 4.5% in the TTM period from negative values in previous years, showing a recovery in profitability. The equity ratio remains strong, suggesting a stable capital structure. However, the overall return on equity is still modest compared to historical highs.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows a positive trend with a free cash flow growth rate of 2.22% in the TTM period, recovering from negative growth in previous years. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is stable at 1.00, indicating efficient cash generation relative to earnings. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio has decreased to 0.25, suggesting less cash is being converted from profits compared to past performance.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.21B	1.21B	1.09B	850.19M	900.14M	1.69B
Gross Profit	351.01M	378.05M	360.51M	242.57M	291.96M	786.04M
EBITDA	264.63M	305.81M	143.98M	59.67M	300.35M	130.43M
Net Income	75.32M	80.39M	-81.28M	-77.21M	446.95M	408.54M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.32B	2.27B	2.28B	2.34B	2.68B	3.14B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	522.34M	628.43M	615.77M	531.92M	949.40M	548.66M
Total Debt	19.56M	20.11M	24.21M	13.97M	20.20M	18.91M
Total Liabilities	613.59M	609.22M	606.52M	525.62M	632.95M	669.99M
Stockholders Equity	1.70B	1.66B	1.67B	1.81B	2.04B	2.47B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	68.93M	114.11M	160.29M	-82.91M	322.26M	603.77M
Operating Cash Flow	280.33M	298.40M	245.60M	-1.98M	414.76M	930.01M
Investing Cash Flow	-236.11M	-193.20M	-90.29M	-255.64M	36.43M	-303.38M
Financing Cash Flow	-114.31M	-93.47M	-74.28M	-157.69M	-49.14M	-123.99M

Centerra Gold Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 11.50
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:CG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 11.5 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.41, above the 50-day MA of 10.07, and above the 200-day MA of 9.11, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.43 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 69.08 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 89.42 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:CG.

Centerra Gold Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CG	69 Neutral	$2.37B	23.10	4.38%	2.43%	-4.17%	-40.92%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$10.27B	6.37	0.76%	2.91%	3.10%	-36.03%
NG	―	$2.72B	―	-123.35%	―	―	―
SA	―	$1.80B	―	-4.84%	―	―	―
WDO	73 Outperform	C$2.85B	12.15	39.89%	―	81.12%	514.82%
CXB	69 Neutral		―		―	20.03%	-46.48%
ORA	51 Neutral	C$3.47B	―	-32.74%	3.27%	39.55%	-89.48%

Centerra Gold Corporate Events

Centerra Gold Files 2024 Annual Report with SEC

Centerra Gold Inc. has filed its 2024 annual report on Form 40-F with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, which includes its annual information form, audited financial statements, and management’s discussion and analysis. These filings are accessible through EDGAR and SEDAR+, as well as on the company’s website. This filing ensures compliance with regulatory requirements and provides transparency to stakeholders, potentially impacting investor confidence and market perception.