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Aris Mining (TSE:ARIS)
TSX:ARIS

Aris Mining (ARIS) AI Stock Analysis

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Aris Mining

(TSX:ARIS)

Rating:76Outperform
Price Target:
C$10.50
▲(10.99%Upside)
Aris Mining's strong financial performance and positive technical indicators are significant strengths. The company's strategic growth initiatives and recent corporate actions further bolster its outlook. However, a high P/E ratio suggests the stock might be overvalued, limiting its appeal. Overall, the company is well-positioned for growth, but investors should be cautious of valuation levels.
Positive Factors
Financial Resources
The sale of the Juby Gold Project is expected to bring in US$22M, providing additional financial resources.
Production Capacity
The successful installation and commissioning of a second processing mill at Segovia is expected to increase production capacity.
Valuation
Aris is trading at 0.14x NAV vs. junior producer peers at 0.60x, indicating an inexpensive valuation.
Negative Factors
Project Delays
The Colombian Ministry of Environment has completed the public consultation process in respect to establishing a Temporary Reserve Area where the Soto Norte Project is located, which may delay the start of construction for Soto Norte to 2029.

Aris Mining (ARIS) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

Aris Mining Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionAris Mining (ARIS) is a prominent company in the mining sector, focusing primarily on the exploration and production of precious metals. The company is engaged in activities such as mining, extracting, and processing gold and other valuable minerals. Aris Mining aims to maximize shareholder value through efficient operations and strategic investments in high-potential mining projects.
How the Company Makes MoneyAris Mining makes money primarily through the sale of gold and other precious metals extracted from its mining operations. The company's revenue is generated by selling these metals at market prices, which can fluctuate based on global supply and demand dynamics. Key revenue streams include the sale of mined gold and by-products such as silver. Additionally, Aris Mining may engage in strategic partnerships or joint ventures to enhance its operational capabilities and expand its mining footprint, thus contributing to its earnings. The company's profitability is influenced by factors such as production costs, metal prices, and operational efficiency.

Aris Mining Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 17.96%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 06, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted record results, increased gold production, and a strong financial position, along with advancing growth projects. However, high all-in sustaining costs and pending capital requirements for the Marmato project were noted. Overall, the positive achievements and financial stability significantly outweigh the challenges.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Quarterly Results
Aris Mining reported its best quarterly results since its formation in September 2022, supported by solid operational execution and record gold prices. Adjusted net earnings were $27 million, or $0.16 per share.
Significant Increase in Gold Revenue
Gold revenue totaled $154 million in Q1, representing an increase of 47% over the same quarter last year.
Increased Gold Production
Total gold production was 55,000 ounces, an increase of 8% from Q1 2024, accounting for 22% of the midpoint of the full-year production guidance.
Strong Financial Position
Aris Mining closed the quarter with a cash balance of $240 million and a low net leverage ratio of 1.2x.
Growth Project Milestones
The Segovia processing plant expansion is on track with the commissioning expected in June, and the Marmato Lower Mine construction is advancing with increased processing capacity to 5,000 tonnes per day.
Negative Updates
High All-In Sustaining Costs
Owner Mining all-in sustaining cost was $1,482 per ounce, which is at the lower end of the company's full-year guidance range but remains a high cost.
Pending Capital Requirements
The net construction capital balance of $208 million for the Marmato Lower Mine remains, although it is fully funded by cash on hand and ongoing cash flow.
Company Guidance
During the Aris Mining First Quarter 2025 Results Call, management provided a robust financial and operational performance overview, highlighting several key metrics. The company reported adjusted net earnings of $27 million, equating to $0.16 per share, with gold revenue reaching $154 million—an impressive 47% increase from the previous year. The 12-month trailing adjusted EBITDA was noted at $201 million. Operationally, Aris Mining achieved a total gold production of 55,000 ounces, marking an 8% increase from Q1 2024, with Segovia contributing 47,500 ounces at an average gold grade of 9.4 grams per tonne and gold recoveries of 96%. The company's all-in sustaining cost margin from Segovia more than doubled to $61 million compared to the previous year. Financially, Aris Mining maintained a cash balance of $240 million, with net debt at $250 million, resulting in a net leverage ratio of 1.2x. The company also highlighted progress on strategic growth initiatives, including the Segovia plant expansion and advancements in the Marmato Lower Mine construction, positioning itself for increased production and enhanced shareholder value.

Aris Mining Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Aris Mining exhibits solid financial performance with strong revenue growth and improved profitability margins. The balance sheet shows moderate leverage and a strong equity foundation, although cash flow conversion remains a challenge due to capital expenditures.
Income Statement
76
Positive
Aris Mining demonstrated solid revenue growth with a notable increase of 9.77% TTM over the previous year. The gross profit margin improved to 35.19% TTM, indicating effective cost management. The net profit margin also increased to 4.94% TTM, reflecting enhanced profitability. However, the EBIT margin decreased slightly to 26.84% TTM, suggesting some operational cost pressures.
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
The company's financial leverage is moderate with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.63 TTM, indicating a balanced capital structure. Return on equity improved to 3.29% TTM, which is a positive sign of profitability but still relatively low. The equity ratio stands at 40.44% TTM, suggesting a strong equity foundation.
Cash Flow
68
Positive
Free cash flow showed improvement, reducing its deficit significantly TTM compared to previous periods. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is favorable at 6.84 TTM, indicating strong cash generation relative to net income. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio remains negative, highlighting ongoing capital expenditures impacting free cash flow.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue560.51M510.60M447.67M399.96M382.61M390.92M
Gross Profit197.25M161.69M185.91M171.95M170.05M192.20M
EBITDA158.28M140.73M122.22M119.55M168.85M70.35M
Net Income27.69M24.58M11.42M-4.86M186.23M-4.65M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets2.08B1.99B1.35B1.24B998.38M650.57M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments239.83M252.53M194.62M299.46M323.56M122.51M
Total Debt527.45M520.57M382.93M436.06M318.07M145.15M
Total Liabilities950.88M911.40M728.22M740.75M519.86M454.34M
Stockholders Equity841.24M798.57M624.65M501.38M478.53M153.71M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-13.43M-40.21M-9.02M-38.05M17.09M73.58M
Operating Cash Flow189.35M141.24M104.70M76.95M80.55M136.38M
Investing Cash Flow-221.16M-198.77M-180.28M-54.58M-229.72M-72.31M
Financing Cash Flow128.90M121.29M-33.33M-39.32M359.67M-23.61M

Aris Mining Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price9.46
Price Trends
50DMA
8.73
Positive
100DMA
7.56
Positive
200DMA
6.65
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.21
Positive
RSI
56.45
Neutral
STOCH
79.99
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:ARIS, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 9.46 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.27, above the 50-day MA of 8.73, and above the 200-day MA of 6.65, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.21 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 56.45 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 79.99 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:ARIS.

Aris Mining Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (44)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
76
Outperform
C$1.74B40.743.74%26.36%69.74%
TSASM
74
Outperform
$729.62M34.3110.93%58.11%761.96%
TSGGD
66
Neutral
C$689.65M136.241.21%74.02%
TSEDR
58
Neutral
$2.07B-14.41%4.45%-3193.40%
44
Neutral
C$992.05M-6.72-13.73%2.53%17.45%-32.50%
41
Neutral
$797.83M-67.76%-16.69%
TSSLS
31
Underperform
C$1.29B-9999.00%-69.63%
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE:ARIS
Aris Mining
9.46
3.36
55.08%
TSE:ASM
Avino Silver & Gold
4.82
3.43
246.76%
TSE:GGD
GoGold Resources
2.03
0.61
42.96%
TSE:EDR
Endeavour Silver
6.62
0.32
5.08%
TSE:ABRA
AbraSilver Resource
4.95
2.09
73.08%
TSE:SLS
Solaris Resources
7.46
3.52
89.34%

Aris Mining Corporate Events

Delistings and Listing ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Aris Mining’s TSX-Listed Warrants Set to Expire, Strengthening Financial Position
Positive
Jul 9, 2025

Aris Mining Corporation has announced that its TSX-listed warrants, trading under the symbol ARIS.WT.A, will expire on July 29, 2025. The warrants are currently ‘in-the-money,’ and approximately 48.2% have been exercised, generating C$77 million for the company. If all remaining warrants are exercised, Aris Mining could receive an additional C$83 million. This expiration is part of the company’s strategy to simplify its capital structure, which, combined with strong cash flow, has strengthened its balance sheet. This move is expected to have a positive impact on the company’s financial position and streamline its operations.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:ARIS) stock is a Buy with a C$8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aris Mining stock, see the TSE:ARIS Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Aris Mining Achieves 13% Growth in H1 2025 Gold Production
Positive
Jul 7, 2025

Aris Mining Corporation reported a 13% increase in gold production for the first half of 2025, totaling 113,415 ounces. The company successfully commissioned the expanded Segovia mill, which is expected to enhance production capacity and help achieve the full-year production guidance of 230,000 to 275,000 ounces. This growth is part of Aris Mining’s strategy to expand its operations and capitalize on the strong gold price environment, positioning the company for a successful year and benefiting stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:ARIS) stock is a Buy with a C$8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aris Mining stock, see the TSE:ARIS Stock Forecast page.

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Aris Mining Sells Juby Gold Project to McFarlane Lake Mining for $22 Million
Positive
Jul 7, 2025

Aris Mining has announced the sale of its Juby Gold Project in Ontario, Canada, to McFarlane Lake Mining for a total consideration of $22 million. This strategic move aligns with Aris Mining’s focus on Latin American operations, allowing McFarlane to enhance its portfolio and transition into a gold exploration and development company. The transaction, expected to close within 90 days, involves a mix of cash and shares, with Aris Mining retaining a security interest until full payment is received. This sale is expected to unlock potential value for both companies, with Aris Mining concentrating on its core assets and McFarlane expanding its exploration capabilities.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:ARIS) stock is a Buy with a C$8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aris Mining stock, see the TSE:ARIS Stock Forecast page.

Product-Related AnnouncementsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Aris Mining Boosts Segovia Operations with New Mill Installation
Positive
Jun 30, 2025

Aris Mining has successfully installed and commissioned a second processing mill at its Segovia Operations in Colombia, increasing the site’s processing capacity by 50%. This expansion aligns with the company’s growth strategy and is expected to boost gold production significantly in the second half of 2025, with a projected annual production of 300,000 ounces by next year. The expansion further solidifies Segovia’s role as a key cash flow generator for Aris Mining.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:ARIS) stock is a Buy with a C$8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aris Mining stock, see the TSE:ARIS Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Aris Mining Reports Record Q1 2025 Earnings and Operational Growth
Positive
May 7, 2025

Aris Mining Corporation reported a strong start to 2025 with record adjusted earnings per share of $0.16, driven by high gold prices and solid operational performance. The company saw significant financial growth, with a 47% increase in gold revenue compared to Q1 2024 and a 134% rise in adjusted EBITDA. Operationally, gold production increased by 8% year-over-year, and the company is on track with its expansion projects, including the Segovia plant expansion and Marmato Lower Mine development, which are expected to boost production further in the second half of 2025.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 09, 2025