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Aris Mining (TSE:ARIS)
TSX:ARIS
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Aris Mining (ARIS) AI Stock Analysis

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TSE:ARIS

Aris Mining

(TSX:ARIS)

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Neutral 63 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:63Neutral
Price Target:
C$15.00
▲(7.76% Upside)
Aris Mining's overall stock score is driven by strong technical indicators and positive earnings call highlights, reflecting robust operational performance and growth prospects. However, the high P/E ratio suggests overvaluation, and financial performance concerns, particularly in profitability and cash flow, weigh down the score.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth
Consistent revenue growth indicates expanding market reach and effective operations, enhancing long-term business sustainability.
Increased Processing Capacity
Increased processing capacity at Segovia supports higher production targets, strengthening Aris Mining's competitive position in the gold market.
Positive Prefeasibility Study
The positive prefeasibility study for Soto Norte enhances Aris Mining's project pipeline, promising future growth and diversification.
Negative Factors
Profitability Concerns
Low profitability metrics indicate challenges in converting revenue into profit, potentially impacting long-term financial health.
Cash Flow Challenges
Negative cash flow growth suggests difficulties in generating sufficient cash, which may constrain future investment and operational flexibility.
Marmato Development Challenges
Challenges in Marmato development could delay production ramp-up, affecting Aris Mining's growth timeline and project execution.

Aris Mining (ARIS) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

Aris Mining Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionAris Mining (ARIS) is a publicly traded company engaged in the exploration, development, and operation of gold and mineral properties. The company's primary focus is on the mining sector, where it specializes in extracting and processing gold. Aris Mining operates multiple mining projects across various geographic locations, aiming to maximize production efficiency and resource utilization.
How the Company Makes MoneyAris Mining generates revenue primarily through the sale of gold produced from its mining operations. The company extracts gold from its owned and operated mines, processes the ore to produce gold bullion, and then sells the gold on the open market. Key revenue streams include the sale of gold directly to refiners and dealers, as well as potential long-term supply agreements with major buyers. Aris Mining's earnings are influenced by factors such as gold market prices, production volume, and the efficiency of its mining operations. The company may also engage in strategic partnerships or joint ventures to enhance its production capabilities and expand its market reach.

Aris Mining Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 07, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 18, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call presented strong financial performance with record earnings, increased cash reserves, and growth in production capacity. However, there were some challenges, notably noncash losses and issues in Marmato development. The positive aspects significantly outweigh the negative ones.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Adjusted Earnings
Q2 net adjusted earnings were $48 million or $0.27 a share, marking the highest quarter since Aris Mining's formation in September 2022.
Significant Cash Position Increase
The company ended the quarter with $310 million in cash, bolstered by $150 million from warrant exercises.
Gold Revenue Growth
Q2 gold revenue totaled $200 million, showing a 30% increase over Q1.
Increased Processing Capacity at Segovia
The commissioning of the second ball mill increased Segovia's processing capacity by 50%, positioning it to target 300,000 ounces next year.
All-in Sustaining Cost Margin Improvement
The ASIC margin increased by 43% compared to Q1, driven by strong production, higher realized gold prices, and solid cost controls.
Gold Production Increase
Total gold production increased by 7% from Q1 2025 and 13% compared to the first half of 2024.
Negative Updates
Noncash Loss on Financial Instruments
A $51 million noncash loss was recorded due to warrant revaluation, introducing earnings volatility.
Challenges in Marmato Development
Development was slowed by poor ground conditions and water ingress, though it remains on schedule for production ramp-up in the second half of 2026.
Company Guidance
During the Aris Mining Second Quarter 2025 Results Call, CEO Neil Woodyer reported robust financial performance, including record net adjusted earnings of $48 million, or $0.27 per share, marking the highest since the company's inception in 2022. The company achieved gold revenue of $200 million, a 30% increase over Q1, and ended the quarter with a cash balance of $310 million, bolstered by $150 million from exercised warrants. Production highlights included a total gold production of 58,700 ounces, a 7% increase from Q1, with Segovia contributing 51,500 ounces. The company is on track to meet its full-year production guidance, aiming for 300,000 ounces at Segovia in 2026. Aris Mining's All-in Sustaining Cost (AISC) margin increased by 43% from Q1, reflecting strong operational performance. The company is advancing its growth projects, including the Marmato bulk mining zone and the Soto Norte and Toroparu projects, with technical studies expected in Q3 2025.

Aris Mining Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Aris Mining shows strong revenue growth and improved profitability margins. The balance sheet is stable with balanced leverage and strong equity. Cash flow performance is improving, but challenges remain in converting earnings into free cash flow due to capital expenditures.
Income Statement
65
Positive
Aris Mining demonstrated solid revenue growth with a notable increase of 9.77% TTM over the previous year. The gross profit margin improved to 35.19% TTM, indicating effective cost management. The net profit margin also increased to 4.94% TTM, reflecting enhanced profitability. However, the EBIT margin decreased slightly to 26.84% TTM, suggesting some operational cost pressures.
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
The company's financial leverage is moderate with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.63 TTM, indicating a balanced capital structure. Return on equity improved to 3.29% TTM, which is a positive sign of profitability but still relatively low. The equity ratio stands at 40.44% TTM, suggesting a strong equity foundation.
Cash Flow
50
Neutral
Free cash flow showed improvement, reducing its deficit significantly TTM compared to previous periods. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is favorable at 6.84 TTM, indicating strong cash generation relative to net income. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio remains negative, highlighting ongoing capital expenditures impacting free cash flow.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue646.78M510.60M447.67M399.96M382.61M374.98M
Gross Profit303.90M195.84M185.91M204.14M198.71M192.20M
EBITDA245.50M152.23M153.49M166.33M170.39M177.38M
Net Income5.08M24.58M11.42M-4.86M186.23M-4.65M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets2.19B1.99B1.35B1.24B998.38M650.57M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments310.16M252.53M194.62M299.46M323.56M122.51M
Total Debt520.66M520.57M382.93M436.06M318.07M145.15M
Total Liabilities974.00M911.40M728.22M740.75M519.86M454.34M
Stockholders Equity930.13M798.57M624.65M495.89M478.53M153.71M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow50.19M-40.21M-9.02M-38.05M17.09M73.58M
Operating Cash Flow258.68M141.24M104.70M76.95M80.55M136.38M
Investing Cash Flow-221.22M-198.77M-180.28M-54.58M-229.72M-72.31M
Financing Cash Flow152.64M121.29M-33.33M-39.32M359.67M-23.61M

Aris Mining Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price13.92
Price Trends
50DMA
11.54
Positive
100DMA
10.33
Positive
200DMA
8.21
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.64
Positive
RSI
65.75
Neutral
STOCH
85.78
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:ARIS, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 13.92 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 13.32, above the 50-day MA of 11.54, and above the 200-day MA of 8.21, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.64 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 65.75 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 85.78 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:ARIS.

Aris Mining Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
78
Outperform
C$1.09B47.0310.18%58.97%849.69%
66
Neutral
C$885.83M56.200.56%110.25%
63
Neutral
C$2.82B275.100.63%42.84%-52.71%
52
Neutral
C$3.10B-28.83-13.16%14.41%-350.79%
41
Neutral
C$1.21B-25.96-193.85%
31
Underperform
C$1.49B-15.77-28.38%
61
Neutral
$10.43B7.12-0.05%2.87%2.86%-36.73%
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE:ARIS
Aris Mining
13.92
7.86
129.70%
TSE:ASM
Avino Silver & Gold
7.60
6.04
387.18%
TSE:EDR
Endeavour Silver
10.75
4.95
85.34%
TSE:GGD
GoGold Resources
2.60
1.13
76.87%
TSE:ABRA
AbraSilver Resource
7.69
5.08
194.64%
TSE:SLS
Solaris Resources
8.98
5.61
166.47%

Aris Mining Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Aris Mining Reports Record Q2 2025 Financial Results and Strategic Growth
Positive
Aug 7, 2025

Aris Mining Corporation reported strong financial results for Q2 2025, with record revenue of $200.2 million, a 30% increase from Q1 2025, driven by higher gold prices and increased sales volumes. The company’s cash balance rose to $310 million, and adjusted EBITDA nearly tripled compared to Q2 2024. Aris Mining is advancing its growth pipeline with significant investments in its Marmato Bulk Mining Zone and Segovia operations, positioning itself for stronger production in the latter half of 2025.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:ARIS) stock is a Buy with a C$8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aris Mining stock, see the TSE:ARIS Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and Strategy
Aris Mining Partners with Colombian Government to Formalize Artisanal Mining Near Marmato
Positive
Jul 16, 2025

Aris Mining has signed a Memorandum of Understanding with Colombia’s Ministry of Mines and Energy to formalize artisanal and small-scale miners (ASMs) near its Marmato operations. This initiative aims to enhance safety, environmental outcomes, and livelihoods while strengthening operational stability. The agreement is part of the government’s ‘Special Mining District for Peace and Life’ initiative, which prioritizes sustainable mining in Marmato. Aris Mining will provide technical support and training to ASMs and contribute milling capacity to process ASM-sourced material, while its own operations remain unaffected by this initiative.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:ARIS) stock is a Buy with a C$8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aris Mining stock, see the TSE:ARIS Stock Forecast page.

Delistings and Listing ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Aris Mining’s TSX-Listed Warrants Set to Expire, Strengthening Financial Position
Positive
Jul 9, 2025

Aris Mining Corporation has announced that its TSX-listed warrants, trading under the symbol ARIS.WT.A, will expire on July 29, 2025. The warrants are currently ‘in-the-money,’ and approximately 48.2% have been exercised, generating C$77 million for the company. If all remaining warrants are exercised, Aris Mining could receive an additional C$83 million. This expiration is part of the company’s strategy to simplify its capital structure, which, combined with strong cash flow, has strengthened its balance sheet. This move is expected to have a positive impact on the company’s financial position and streamline its operations.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:ARIS) stock is a Buy with a C$8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aris Mining stock, see the TSE:ARIS Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Aris Mining Achieves 13% Growth in H1 2025 Gold Production
Positive
Jul 7, 2025

Aris Mining Corporation reported a 13% increase in gold production for the first half of 2025, totaling 113,415 ounces. The company successfully commissioned the expanded Segovia mill, which is expected to enhance production capacity and help achieve the full-year production guidance of 230,000 to 275,000 ounces. This growth is part of Aris Mining’s strategy to expand its operations and capitalize on the strong gold price environment, positioning the company for a successful year and benefiting stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:ARIS) stock is a Buy with a C$8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aris Mining stock, see the TSE:ARIS Stock Forecast page.

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Aris Mining Sells Juby Gold Project to McFarlane Lake Mining for $22 Million
Positive
Jul 7, 2025

Aris Mining has announced the sale of its Juby Gold Project in Ontario, Canada, to McFarlane Lake Mining for a total consideration of $22 million. This strategic move aligns with Aris Mining’s focus on Latin American operations, allowing McFarlane to enhance its portfolio and transition into a gold exploration and development company. The transaction, expected to close within 90 days, involves a mix of cash and shares, with Aris Mining retaining a security interest until full payment is received. This sale is expected to unlock potential value for both companies, with Aris Mining concentrating on its core assets and McFarlane expanding its exploration capabilities.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:ARIS) stock is a Buy with a C$8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aris Mining stock, see the TSE:ARIS Stock Forecast page.

Product-Related AnnouncementsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Aris Mining Boosts Segovia Operations with New Mill Installation
Positive
Jun 30, 2025

Aris Mining has successfully installed and commissioned a second processing mill at its Segovia Operations in Colombia, increasing the site’s processing capacity by 50%. This expansion aligns with the company’s growth strategy and is expected to boost gold production significantly in the second half of 2025, with a projected annual production of 300,000 ounces by next year. The expansion further solidifies Segovia’s role as a key cash flow generator for Aris Mining.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:ARIS) stock is a Buy with a C$8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aris Mining stock, see the TSE:ARIS Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Oct 04, 2025