Aris Mining (TSE:ARIS)
TSX:ARIS
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Aris Mining
(TSX:ARIS)
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Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
C$26.00
▼(-9.57% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/16/26
The score is driven primarily by improved financial performance and a positive earnings outlook with meaningful production growth guidance, supported by strong technical uptrend signals. These positives are partially offset by expensive valuation and key risks around cash-flow durability and capital intensity required to execute the growth pipeline.
Positive Factors
Production growth roadmap
A clear multi-year production roadmap materially raises the company’s scalable revenue potential and operating leverage. Achieving 300–350k oz in 2026 and a pathway to 500k–1M oz spreads fixed costs, improves unit economics, and underpins durable top-line growth if project execution remains on plan.
Negative Factors
High capital intensity & financing need
Large, concentrated future CapEx requirements create durable funding and execution pressure. Even with improved cash flow, the scale of Marmato, Toroparu and Soto Norte investment raises the probability of additional financing, dilution or delayed projects if cash generation or capital markets access weakens.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Production growth roadmap
A clear multi-year production roadmap materially raises the company’s scalable revenue potential and operating leverage. Achieving 300–350k oz in 2026 and a pathway to 500k–1M oz spreads fixed costs, improves unit economics, and underpins durable top-line growth if project execution remains on plan.
Read all positive factors
Aris Mining (ARIS) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$5.28B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.26M
Price to Earnings (P/E)38.3
Beta (1Y)2.23
Revenue Growth84.65%
EPS Growth157.97%
CountryCA
Employees2,081
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryOther Precious Metals
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.63
Shares Outstanding206,300,000
10 Day Avg. Volume1,122,997
30 Day Avg. Volume1,258,213
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.21
Price to Book (P/B)2.12
Price to Sales (P/S)3.24
P/FCF Ratio44.11
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$41.33Price Target Upside43.77% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)2.26
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$1.53B
Aris Mining Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Aris Mining Corporation together with its subsidiaries, engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and operation of gold and silver properties primarily in Colombia. The company holds interests in the Segovia operations comprising the E...
How the Company Makes Money
Aris Mining primarily makes money by producing and selling gold. Revenue is generated when ore mined from its operations is processed into gold (typically as doré bars) and sold to third-party buyers at market-linked prices (often based on prevail...
Aris Mining Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 11, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized strong operational and financial momentum: sizable production growth, record revenue and earnings, conversion to free cash flow, on-time/on-budget completion of Segovia expansion, and clear project progress at Marmato. Key risks and headwinds were acknowledged—unscheduled Segovia downtime in Q4, higher consolidated AISC driven by elevated gold prices and project-specific cost increases, and substantial near-term CapEx requirements tied to Marmato, Toroparu and Soto Norte. Overall, the positive operational execution, large earnings and cash-flow improvements, and strengthened balance sheet and liquidity materially outweigh the manageable execution and capital intensity risks.Positive Updates
Material Production Growth
Consolidated gold production increased 22% year-over-year to 257,000 ounces in 2025, with Segovia production up 21% to 228,000 ounces driven by the second mill commissioning and higher average feed grade (9.82 g/t, +4.4% vs 2024). 2026 guidance of 300,000–350,000 ounces (midpoint >25% growth) and a pathway to ~500,000 oz once Segovia and Marmato are fully ramped.
Negative Updates
Operational Downtime at Segovia in Q4
Unscheduled maintenance in November caused 6.5 days of downtime on the older mill, reducing throughput to ~2,244 tpd in November and resulting in Q4 Segovia production of 63,137 ounces, ~4% lower than Q3.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Material Production Growth
Consolidated gold production increased 22% year-over-year to 257,000 ounces in 2025, with Segovia production up 21% to 228,000 ounces driven by the second mill commissioning and higher average feed grade (9.82 g/t, +4.4% vs 2024). 2026 guidance of 300,000–350,000 ounces (midpoint >25% growth) and a pathway to ~500,000 oz once Segovia and Marmato are fully ramped.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided 2026 production of 300,000–350,000 ounces (midpoint >25% YoY growth), with a target of ~500,000 oz once Segovia and Marmato are fully ramped and a pathway to 1,000,000 oz through Toroparu and Soto Norte; Segovia is expected to reach a steady 3,000 tpd by Q4 2026 (running ~2,600 tpd at end‑Q4/into Q1), had a 2025 owner‑mining AISC of $1,534/oz and total Segovia AISC of $1,705/oz, and is forecast to generate $650 million in AISC margin at $4,400/oz; Marmato’s CIP plant targets first gold in Q4 2026 (design 5,000 tpd, exit‑2026 ≈3,000 tpd, ~4,000 tpd mid‑2027, full 5,000 tpd end‑2027), owner‑mining ~900 tpd in 2026, decline >1,000 m (60% complete), total project cost ≈$400 million (≈$180M spent to end‑2025, $220M 2026 budget), with a $40M stream installment received and $42M payable at 75% completion; Toroparu PFS is targeted H2 2026 (PEA CapEx ~$820M) and the Soto Norte environmental license application is planned for Q2 2026.Aris Mining Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
Cash Flow
58
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Mar 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 943.90M | 510.60M | 447.67M | 399.96M | 382.61M |
| Gross Profit | 438.12M | 195.84M | 185.91M | 204.14M | 198.71M |
| EBITDA | 430.90M | 152.23M | 153.49M | 166.33M | 170.39M |
| Net Income | 79.72M | 24.58M | 11.42M | -4.86M | 186.23M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 2.52B | 1.99B | 1.35B | 1.24B | 998.38M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 391.16M | 252.53M | 194.62M | 299.46M | 323.56M |
| Total Debt | 524.55M | 520.57M | 382.93M | 422.88M | 318.07M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.07B | 911.40M | 728.22M | 740.75M | 519.86M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.44B | 798.57M | 624.65M | 495.89M | 478.53M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 69.30M | -40.21M | -9.02M | -38.05M | 17.09M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 317.48M | 141.24M | 104.70M | 76.95M | 80.55M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -236.34M | -198.77M | -180.28M | -54.58M | -229.72M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 57.99M | 121.29M | -33.33M | -39.32M | 359.67M |
Aris Mining Technical Analysis
Positive
28.75
Price Trends
26.66
Positive
24.81
Positive
18.57
Positive
Market Momentum
0.79
Negative
58.80
Neutral
49.84
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:ARIS, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 28.75 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 26.29, above the 50-day MA of 26.66, and above the 200-day MA of 18.57, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.79 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 58.80 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 49.84 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:ARIS.
Aris Mining Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | C$1.21B | 16.04 | 10.23% | ― | 75.88% | 1898.21% | |
69 Neutral | C$5.28B | 38.35 | 5.13% | ― | 84.65% | 157.97% | |
66 Neutral | C$1.56B | 33.89 | 15.48% | ― | 28.68% | 208.42% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
56 Neutral | C$2.78B | -28.05 | -85.04% | ― | ― | -88.20% | |
54 Neutral | C$796.51M | -409.55 | -1.50% | ― | 702.55% | 91.75% | |
50 Neutral | C$3.92B | -21.96 | -23.02% | ― | 117.74% | -235.24% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
TSE:ARIS
Aris Mining
23.70
16.16
214.32%
TSE:ASM
Avino Silver & Gold
8.49
5.47
181.13%
TSE:EDR
Endeavour Silver
12.18
7.18
143.60%
TSE:ITR
Integra Resources Corp
3.62
1.24
52.10%
TSE:GGD
GoGold Resources
2.60
0.83
46.89%
TSE:ABRA
AbraSilver Resource
15.43
12.26
386.75%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.