Aris Mining Corporation (TSE:ARIS)
TSX:ARIS
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Aris Mining
(TSX:ARIS)
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Rating:72Outperform
Price Target:
C$26.00
▼(-9.57% Downside)
Action:Upgraded
Date:05/09/26
The score is driven primarily by strengthening financial performance (higher growth and margins, improved leverage) and a supportive valuation (low P/E). These positives are tempered by uneven cash-flow conversion and mixed technical momentum (negative MACD despite price holding above key moving averages), plus execution/timing and commodity/grade sensitivity highlighted on the earnings call.
Positive Factors
Revenue & Margin Improvement
Sustained topline growth with materially higher gross and net margins indicates improved operating leverage and cost execution. These margin levels support durable cash generation from operations and create room to fund development projects and sustain returns across commodity cycles.
Negative Factors
Cash-flow Conversion Volatility
Persistent weak or volatile conversion of accounting earnings into free cash flow shows capital spending and working-capital swings can constrain distributable cash. This reduces reliability of internal funding for growth and heightens sensitivity to timing of receipts and capex.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue & Margin Improvement
Sustained topline growth with materially higher gross and net margins indicates improved operating leverage and cost execution. These margin levels support durable cash generation from operations and create room to fund development projects and sustain returns across commodity cycles.
Read all positive factors
Aris Mining (ARIS) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$4.96B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)721.85K
Price to Earnings (P/E)9.8
Beta (1Y)2.27
Revenue Growth102.00%
EPS Growth399.31%
CountryCA
Employees2,081
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryOther Precious Metals
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.84
Shares Outstanding206,300,000
10 Day Avg. Volume595,268
30 Day Avg. Volume721,846
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.21
Price to Book (P/B)2.12
Price to Sales (P/S)3.24
P/FCF Ratio44.11
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$41.33Price Target Upside43.77% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)2.4
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$1.64B
Aris Mining Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Aris Mining Corporation together with its subsidiaries, engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and operation of gold and silver properties primarily in Colombia. The company holds interests in the Segovia operations comprising the E...
How the Company Makes Money
Aris Mining primarily makes money by producing and selling gold. Revenue is generated when mined ore is processed to produce gold-bearing output (typically sold as gold doré) that is then sold to precious metals purchasers/refiners at prices linke...
Aris Mining Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 06, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call communicated a strong quarter with notable increases in production, revenue (+20%), adjusted EBITDA (+25%), EPS (~30%), and a materially strengthened balance sheet (cash up $80M, net debt reduced to $1.6M). Operational milestones were achieved at Marmato (decline breakthrough) and Segovia capacity expansion progressed, and guidance for FY2026 was reaffirmed. Lowlights are mostly timing, execution, and dependence risks: Q1 cash flow was affected by working capital and incentive settlements, some development work extends into 2027–2028, margins benefited from a high-grade pocket and strong gold prices (introducing sensitivity), and several growth projects still face regulatory and ramp-up risks. Overall, the positives (strong financials, cash generation, project progress, and near-term milestones) outweigh the execution and timing risks.Positive Updates
Quarterly Production and Growth
Consolidated gold production of 74,300 ounces in Q1 2026, a 6% increase vs Q4 2025 (Segovia 66,600 oz; Marmato 7,800 oz). Company remains on track to deliver FY2026 guidance of 300,000–350,000 ounces and Segovia-targeted 265,000–300,000 ounces for the year.
Negative Updates
Quarterly Cash Flow Variability
Operating free cash flow after sustaining capex and taxes was $103 million but was $22 million lower than Q4 due to working capital movements and share-based incentive settlements; free cash flow reported as $42 million, indicating short-term variability in cash generation.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Quarterly Production and Growth
Consolidated gold production of 74,300 ounces in Q1 2026, a 6% increase vs Q4 2025 (Segovia 66,600 oz; Marmato 7,800 oz). Company remains on track to deliver FY2026 guidance of 300,000–350,000 ounces and Segovia-targeted 265,000–300,000 ounces for the year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reiterated full‑year 2026 guidance of 300,000–350,000 ounces (production weighted to H2), with Segovia targeted at 265,000–300,000 ounces and a 3,000 tpd processing rate expected by late 2026/early 2027 (El Silencio ramp Q4‑26, El Silencio–Sandra K connection Q1‑27, Providencia ramp/connection Q1‑28); Marmato’s new 5,000 tpd CIP plant is on schedule for first gold in Q4‑26 with progressive ramp to steady‑state in 2027; Toroparu PFS is due H2‑26 with a construction decision planned for early‑27; Soto Norte’s environmental license application will be submitted in Q2‑26; cost/ margin guidance included owner‑mining AISC guidance of $1,700–$1,800/oz (Q1 owner AISC was $1,492/oz) and a CMP sales margin guidance of 35%–40% (Q1 achieved 40%), while the company retains a longer‑term objective of ~1 million ounces of annual gold production.Aris Mining Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
82
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
68
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Mar 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.14B | 943.90M | 510.60M | 447.67M | 399.96M | 382.61M |
| Gross Profit | 607.83M | 438.12M | 195.84M | 185.91M | 204.14M | 198.71M |
| EBITDA | 523.12M | 430.90M | 152.23M | 153.49M | 166.33M | 170.39M |
| Net Income | 173.91M | 79.72M | 24.58M | 11.42M | -4.86M | 186.23M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.72B | 2.52B | 1.99B | 1.35B | 1.24B | 998.38M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 472.08M | 391.16M | 252.53M | 194.62M | 299.46M | 323.56M |
| Total Debt | 544.33M | 524.55M | 520.57M | 382.93M | 422.88M | 318.07M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.14B | 1.07B | 911.40M | 728.22M | 740.75M | 519.86M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.57B | 1.44B | 798.57M | 624.65M | 495.89M | 478.53M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 194.58M | 69.30M | -40.21M | -9.02M | -38.05M | 17.09M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 454.35M | 317.48M | 141.24M | 104.70M | 76.95M | 80.55M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -260.70M | -236.34M | -198.77M | -180.28M | -54.58M | -229.72M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 35.38M | 57.99M | 121.29M | -33.33M | -39.32M | 359.67M |
Aris Mining Technical Analysis
Negative
28.75
Price Trends
25.89
Negative
25.94
Negative
20.24
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.18
Positive
38.37
Neutral
35.20
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:ARIS, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 28.75 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 25.52, above the 50-day MA of 25.89, and above the 200-day MA of 20.24, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.18 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 38.37 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 35.20 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:ARIS.
Aris Mining Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | C$1.38B | 12.95 | 12.12% | ― | 67.33% | 899.33% | |
78 Outperform | C$1.56B | 16.89 | 17.63% | ― | 57.17% | 130.46% | |
72 Outperform | C$4.96B | 9.80 | 13.72% | ― | 102.00% | 399.31% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
61 Neutral | C$689.36M | 14.74 | 5.06% | ― | 176.40% | ― | |
56 Neutral | C$3.79B | 10.18 | -3.75% | ― | 179.02% | 72.44% | |
50 Neutral | C$2.73B | -36.13 | -95.35% | ― | ― | -59.72% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
TSE:ARIS
Aris Mining
24.05
15.33
175.80%
TSE:ASM
Avino Silver & Gold
9.30
5.25
129.63%
TSE:EDR
Endeavour Silver
12.82
7.84
157.43%
TSE:ITR
Integra Resources Corp
3.41
1.26
58.60%
TSE:GGD
GoGold Resources
3.18
1.35
73.77%
TSE:ABRA
AbraSilver Resource
16.96
13.00
328.28%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.