Aris Mining (ARIS) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$5.39B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.26M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 38.3
• Beta (1Y): 1.98
• Revenue Growth: 62.92%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: CA
• Employees: 2,081
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Other Precious Metals
• EPS (TTM): 0.63
• Shares Outstanding: 205,700,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,122,997
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,258,213
• PEG Ratio: 0.21
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.12
• Price to Sales (P/S): 3.24
• P/FCF Ratio: 44.11
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: C$38.33
• Price Target Upside: 46.30% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3
• EPS Forecast (FY): 2.3
• Revenue Forecast (FY): C$1.52B

• Rating: 63 Neutral
• Price Target: C$28.00 ▲(6.87% Upside)
• Action: Downgraded Date: 03/13/26
• Date: Action: Downgraded 03/13/26

The score is driven primarily by improved 2025 operating performance and a healthier balance sheet, supported by a positive earnings call with production/growth momentum. Offsetting these are weak and inconsistent free-cash-flow conversion, a premium valuation (high P/E with modest yield), and only neutral-to-soft near-term technicals.

Positive Factors

Improved leverage / balance sheet

Material deleveraging gives Aris greater financial flexibility to fund development projects, withstand price shocks, and reduce refinancing risk. A healthier capital structure supports long-term investment capacity without immediate reliance on dilutive equity or expensive debt.

Rising production and revenue scale

Sustained step-up in production and record revenue point to improving operating scale and throughput. Higher output drives better fixed-cost absorption, stronger EBITDA generation and a higher base for sustained cash flow if operational performance remains consistent.

Material growth pipeline

A multi-asset development pipeline (Marmato, Soto Norte, Toroparu studies) provides clear avenues to extend mine life and materially increase future production. Successful execution can translate into durable reserve growth and long-term cash generation beyond current operations.

Negative Factors

Weak free cash flow conversion

Despite stronger operating cash, the company converts little of profits into free cash flow, limiting internal funding for large projects, dividends, or debt reduction. Inconsistent FCF raises reliance on external financing and heightens execution risk for capital-intensive growth.

Very large upfront project capex

Multi-hundred-million-dollar initial capital needs create structural funding and execution risk. Large upfront spend can force debt issuance or equity dilution, compress returns during ramp, and make project economics sensitive to delays, cost overruns, or metal price weakness.

Volatile profitability and modest returns

Historic swings between losses and profits indicate operating and commodity exposure that undermines predictability. Modest ROE on an expanded equity base signals lower capital efficiency, reducing confidence that growth will deliver proportionate investor returns over the medium term.

Aris Mining Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Aris Mining Corporation together with its subsidiaries, engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and operation of gold and silver properties primarily in Colombia. The company holds interests in the Segovia operations comprising the El Silencio, Providencia, and Sandra K underground mines located in Colombia. It also owns interest in the Zancudo project located in the Titiribí mining district of Antioquia. In addition, the company holds interests in the Marmato project in Colombia; Juby project located in Ontario, Canada; and Toroparu project in the western Guyana gold district. The company was formerly known as Gran Colombia Gold Corp. and changed its name to GCM Mining Corp. in November 2021. The company was formerly known as GCM Mining Corp. and changed its name to Aris Mining Corporation on September 26, 2022. Aris Mining Corporation is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.

How the Company Makes Money

Aris Mining primarily makes money by producing and selling gold. Revenue is generated when ore mined from its operations is processed into gold (typically as doré bars) and sold to third-party buyers at market-linked prices (often based on prevailing gold benchmarks, net of refining and logistics charges). The company’s earnings are driven by (1) gold sales volumes (production levels), (2) realized gold prices, and (3) operating costs such as mining, processing, labor, energy, consumables, royalties, and sustaining capital needed to keep mines operating. Additional factors that can materially influence revenue and cash flow include metallurgical recovery rates at the processing facilities, grade and throughput variability, permitting and regulatory conditions in Colombia, and any use of hedging or streaming/royalty arrangements; specific details on such arrangements are null if not publicly specified in the provided context.

Aris Mining Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong 2025 step-up in revenue and margins plus improved leverage, but the cash flow profile is the key drag: free cash flow conversion remains thin and has been inconsistent, and profitability has been volatile across the cycle.

Income Statement

Results show a sharp step-up in scale and profitability in 2025, with revenue up ~23% and strong operating profitability (gross margin ~46%, EBIT margin ~40%, EBITDA margin ~46%). Net profit margin improved to ~8.4% versus ~4.8% in 2024, indicating better earnings quality year-over-year. Offsetting this, profitability has been volatile over the cycle (net losses in 2020 and 2022, unusually high net margin in 2021), which reduces confidence in consistency despite the strong 2025 performance.

Balance Sheet

Leverage has improved materially, with debt-to-equity declining to ~0.36 in 2025 from ~0.65 in 2024 and ~0.85 in 2022, alongside a much larger equity base. Returns on equity remain modest at ~5.5% in 2025 (up from ~3.1% in 2024), suggesting the company is not yet generating high returns on its expanded capital base. Overall, the balance sheet looks healthier and less levered, but returns are still middle-of-the-road for the risk profile of a metals business.

Cash Flow

Cash generation improved in 2025, with operating cash flow rising to ~317M and roughly covering net income (~1.04x), which supports earnings credibility. However, free cash flow remains relatively thin versus profits (about ~0.22x net income) and declined ~40% year-over-year, following negative free cash flow in 2022–2024. The key weakness is the inconsistent ability to convert operating performance into durable free cash flow.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Mar 2022
Income Statement
Total Revenue	943.90M	510.60M	447.67M	399.96M	382.61M
Gross Profit	438.12M	195.84M	185.91M	204.14M	198.71M
EBITDA	430.90M	152.23M	153.49M	166.33M	170.39M
Net Income	79.72M	24.58M	11.42M	-4.86M	186.23M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.52B	1.99B	1.35B	1.24B	998.38M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	391.16M	252.53M	194.62M	299.46M	323.56M
Total Debt	524.55M	520.57M	382.93M	422.88M	318.07M
Total Liabilities	1.07B	911.40M	728.22M	740.75M	519.86M
Stockholders Equity	1.44B	798.57M	624.65M	495.89M	478.53M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	69.30M	-40.21M	-9.02M	-38.05M	17.09M
Operating Cash Flow	317.48M	141.24M	104.70M	76.95M	80.55M
Investing Cash Flow	-236.34M	-198.77M	-180.28M	-54.58M	-229.72M
Financing Cash Flow	57.99M	121.29M	-33.33M	-39.32M	359.67M

Aris Mining Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 26.20
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:ARIS, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 26.2 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 27.79, below the 50-day MA of 26.32, and above the 200-day MA of 16.46, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.15 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 45.76 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 32.31 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TSE:ARIS.

Aris Mining Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ITR	71 Outperform	C$795.73M	-21.18	15.43%	―	―	―
GGD	71 Outperform	$1.22B	16.04	5.38%	―	104.08%	832.86%
ASM	70 Outperform	$1.71B	33.89	14.35%	―	65.77%	458.38%
ARIS	63 Neutral	C$5.39B	38.35	5.13%	―	62.92%	―
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
EDR	56 Neutral	C$4.35B	-21.96	-23.02%	―	50.37%	-191.85%
ABRA	41 Neutral	$2.18B	-15.25	-81.61%	―	―	-171.41%

Aris Mining Corporate Events

Aris Mining Reshapes Board and Management to Drive Next Phase of Growth

Aris Mining has overhauled its board and senior management structure as it moves into a growth execution phase, with long-time chair Ian Telfer retiring from the board and remaining only in an advisory role. Founder Neil Woodyer has assumed the combined positions of chair and chief executive officer, while director David Garofalo has been named lead independent director to bolster oversight under the streamlined governance model. On the management side, Doug Bowlby has been promoted to president, the chief operating officer role has been eliminated with Richard Thomas departing, and operational and project responsibilities have been reassigned directly to senior vice presidents who report to the CEO. The company says the simplified leadership structure is designed to shorten decision-making, increase accountability and better align management with its operational and growth ambitions across its Colombian mines and development projects in Colombia and Guyana.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:ARIS) stock is a Buy with a C$30.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aris Mining stock, see the TSE:ARIS Stock Forecast page.

Aris Mining Tops 2025 Gold Targets and Signals Stronger Output for 2026

Aris Mining reported 2025 gold production of 256,503 ounces, a 22% increase over 2024 and above the midpoint of its guidance range, driven primarily by the expansion and ramp-up of its Segovia operation and strong, above-guidance performance at Marmato. With a preliminary year-end cash balance exceeding US$390 million after acquiring the remaining 49% of Soto Norte and with a second ball mill at Segovia boosting second-half output, the company now expects 2026 consolidated production to rise further to 300,000–350,000 ounces, underscoring accelerating growth from its core Colombian assets and reinforcing its strategy to build a larger, multi-asset gold producer.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:ARIS) stock is a Buy with a C$30.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aris Mining stock, see the TSE:ARIS Stock Forecast page.

Aris Mining Lifts High-Grade Reserves and Resources at Segovia Complex

Aris Mining has reported a significant increase in mineral reserves and resources at its Segovia operation as of November 28, 2025, reinforcing the asset’s status as a high-grade, long-life gold mine. Measured and indicated resources rose 7% to 3.6 million ounces of gold and inferred resources climbed 12% to 2.9 million ounces, while proven and probable reserves grew 12% to 1.5 million ounces, net of mined depletion, underscoring successful resource conversion and sustained exploration success. The company highlighted that Segovia’s grades remain exceptionally high, with measured and indicated resources averaging 15.3 g/t gold and reserves averaging 10.7 g/t gold, and a sensitivity analysis shows the mineral resource base is largely insensitive to gold price assumptions across a wide range, pointing to robust underlying economics and supporting higher production rates following the site’s mill expansion.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:ARIS) stock is a Hold with a C$21.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aris Mining stock, see the TSE:ARIS Stock Forecast page.