Alphamin Resources (AFM) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$1.71B
• Dividend Yield: 9.17%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.58M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 10.3
• Beta (1Y): 1.09
• Revenue Growth: 34.89%
• EPS Growth: 67.31%
• Country: CA
• Employees: N/A
• Sector: General
• Sector Strength: N/A
• Industry: Industrial Materials
• EPS (TTM): 0.04
• Shares Outstanding: 1,278,910,500
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,905,715
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,577,392
• PEG Ratio: 0.08
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.85
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.80
• P/FCF Ratio: 7.01
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 77 Outperform
• Price Target: C$1.50 ▲(29.31% Upside)

Score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (profitability, low leverage, and rising free cash flow). Valuation also supports the rating with a modest P/E and high dividend yield. Technicals are positive trend-wise but tempered by overbought momentum signals (high RSI/Stochastic), which adds near-term volatility risk.

Positive Factors

High operating and profit margins

Consistently high gross, EBIT and EBITDA margins point to low unit costs and efficient processing of high‑grade tin ore. Durable margin strength supports reinvestment, dividend capacity and resilience to moderate negative price swings over the next several months.

Improving free cash flow generation

A 25% rise in free cash flow and strong operating cash flow coverage indicate robust cash conversion from operations. This enhances financial flexibility for sustaining capex, funding maintenance and supporting distributions without relying on external financing.

Conservative leverage and strong ROE

Low leverage and a high ROE reflect prudent capital structure and effective use of equity. This balance sheet health reduces refinancing risk and provides capacity for opportunistic investment or to withstand cyclical swings in tin demand over the medium term.

Negative Factors

Single-asset and product concentration

Revenue dependence on a single mine and a single product concentrates operational and commercial risk: any prolonged disruption at Bisie or a processing setback would directly curtail cash flow and production, impairing growth and payouts until resolved.

Country and jurisdictional risk (DRC)

Operating in the DRC exposes the company to heightened political, regulatory and security risks that can disrupt operations, alter permitting or increase costs. These structural risks raise project execution and long‑term operational uncertainty.

Revenue exposed to tin price volatility

Sales linked to commodity market rates mean company revenues and margins are materially cyclical. Prolonged tin price declines would compress cash flow and profitability, complicating capital allocation and dividend consistency across multi‑month industry cycles.

Alphamin Resources Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Alphamin Resources Corp., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the extraction, production, and sale of tin concentrates in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Its flagship property is the Mpama North Tin project that consists of five exploration licenses and one current mining license covering an area of 1,270 square kilometers located in the North Kivu Province of the Democratic Republic of Congo. The company was formerly known as La Plata Gold Corporation and changed its name to Alphamin Resources Corp. in October 2008. Alphamin Resources Corp. was incorporated in 1981 and is headquartered in Grand Baie, Mauritius.

How the Company Makes Money

Alphamin Resources generates revenue primarily through the sale of tin concentrate produced at its Bisie Tin Mine. The company benefits from the high demand for tin, which is used in a wide range of applications, and sells its product to various customers in the metals market. Key revenue streams include direct sales of tin concentrate to traders and manufacturers, with pricing typically linked to market rates for tin. Additionally, the company may engage in strategic partnerships and long-term contracts with key buyers to secure stable revenue. Factors contributing to its earnings include the efficiency of its mining operations, favorable tin prices in the global market, and the company's ability to manage production costs effectively.

Alphamin Resources Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong overall fundamentals: revenue growth of 7.48% (TTM), high profitability (gross margin 46.69%, net margin 20.25%), conservative leverage (debt-to-equity 0.15), strong ROE (32.62%), and improving cash generation (free cash flow up 25.27%).

Income Statement

Alphamin Resources shows strong revenue growth with a 7.48% increase in TTM, supported by robust gross and net profit margins of 46.69% and 20.25% respectively. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are also healthy at 39.70% and 49.41%, indicating efficient operational management. The company has consistently improved its revenue and profitability over the years, reflecting a positive growth trajectory.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is solid with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.15, suggesting conservative leverage. Return on Equity (ROE) is impressive at 32.62%, demonstrating effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio stands at 64.28%, indicating a strong equity base relative to total assets. Overall, the company maintains a stable financial position with manageable debt levels.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals a significant 25.27% growth in free cash flow, highlighting improved cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 1.79 and free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.87 indicate strong cash flow coverage. The company has shown consistent improvement in cash flow metrics, enhancing its financial flexibility.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	284.46M	527.99M	288.50M	391.05M	352.88M	187.44M
Gross Profit	131.95M	247.58M	127.46M	215.77M	188.49M	42.87M
EBITDA	136.77M	258.11M	134.09M	217.89M	164.55M	36.23M
Net Income	60.79M	100.78M	47.22M	100.92M	48.20M	-8.84M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	606.57M	577.78M	516.76M	490.10M	421.15M	297.72M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	57.68M	16.80K	7.16M	74.70M	8.25K	6.71K
Total Debt	59.48M	73.80M	80.65M	9.82M	21.23M	64.03M
Total Liabilities	149.18M	187.71M	151.25M	122.70M	110.42M	99.79M
Stockholders Equity	389.88M	333.54M	312.79M	320.42M	274.73M	171.73M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	81.12M	135.37M	-114.56M	133.18M	119.68M	10.76M
Operating Cash Flow	99.02M	184.46M	2.33M	186.63M	142.19M	18.21M
Investing Cash Flow	-7.21M	-49.40M	-117.22M	-72.76M	-25.53M	-7.54M
Financing Cash Flow	-72.82M	-112.54M	2.66M	-85.12M	-32.58M	-10.04M

Alphamin Resources Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 1.16
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:AFM, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 1.16 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.36, below the 50-day MA of 1.23, and above the 200-day MA of 0.98, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.03 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 46.55 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 30.50 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TSE:AFM.

Alphamin Resources Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ALS	81 Outperform	C$2.03B	5.62	53.36%	0.94%	-0.76%	2549.18%
AFM	77 Outperform	C$1.71B	10.27	33.87%	9.17%	34.89%	67.31%
Sector *	55 Neutral	$6.65B	3.83	-15.92%	6.20%	10.91%	7.18%
WRN	52 Neutral	C$903.19M	-217.02	-1.92%	―	―	41.98%
NDM	49 Neutral	$1.56B	-16.35	-92.64%	―	―	-381.19%
TLG	49 Neutral	C$957.98M	-13.27	-231.13%	―	―	-53.49%
USA	44 Neutral	C$2.76B	-23.41	-144.69%	―	14.32%	37.85%

Alphamin Resources Corporate Events

Alphamin Sets Record 2025 Tin Output, Lifts EBITDA Guidance and Targets Higher 2026 Production

Alphamin Resources reported record tin production for the 2025 financial year, delivering 18,576 tonnes of contained tin, a 7% increase on 2024 and broadly in line with revised guidance, despite a temporary production halt in March 2025 due to security issues. Fourth-quarter production of 5,008 tonnes met the company’s 5,000-tonne quarterly target, while tin sales closely tracked output at 18,638 tonnes for the year. Stronger volumes and a 13% rise in the average achieved tin price to US$34,388 per tonne underpinned an estimated 25% jump in full-year EBITDA to US$341m, aided by the ramp-up of the Mpama South expansion completed mid‑2024. Looking ahead, Alphamin is guiding to approximately 20,000 tonnes of contained tin production in 2026 and continues to advance its exploration programme, although rising tin prices and higher diesel taxes in the DRC are pushing up all-in sustaining costs through increased royalties, export duties and other off-mine charges. The company also announced CEO retirement and the appointment of a new CEO and CFO, signalling a leadership transition as it enters its next phase of growth.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:AFM) stock is a Buy with a C$1.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alphamin Resources stock, see the TSE:AFM Stock Forecast page.

Alphamin Director Paul Baloyi to Step Down at End of January 2026

Alphamin Resources Corp. announced that director Paul Baloyi will step down from the board effective 31 January 2026, marking the end of his tenure that began in April 2017 as an appointee of the Industrial Development Corporation of South Africa. The board publicly acknowledged and thanked Baloyi for his contributions, signaling a forthcoming change in board composition that may open the way for new strategic representation from significant shareholders or independent directors.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:AFM) stock is a Buy with a C$1.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alphamin Resources stock, see the TSE:AFM Stock Forecast page.

Alphamin Reports Fatal Accident at Mpama South Mine in DRC

Alphamin Resources has reported a fatal accident at its Mpama South underground tin mine in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, where an employee of its operating subsidiary Alphamin Bisie Mining S.A. was killed when a blast detonated unexpectedly during the connection of blasting wires after the scheduled evacuation for the night shift blast. The company says mining activities were temporarily suspended following the incident, the relevant authorities have been notified, operations have since restarted after an official visit, and a full investigation will be conducted to determine the exact cause, underscoring ongoing safety concerns and operational risks at its flagship operation.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:AFM) stock is a Buy with a C$1.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alphamin Resources stock, see the TSE:AFM Stock Forecast page.

Alphamin Declares Second Interim FY2025 Dividend

Alphamin Resources Corp. has announced a second interim FY2025 dividend of CAD$0.04 per share, amounting to approximately US$37 million in total, payable on December 8, 2025. This decision reflects the company’s continued financial health and strategic alignment with its subsidiary’s annual financial cycle, potentially impacting shareholder value positively.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:AFM) stock is a Buy with a C$1.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alphamin Resources stock, see the TSE:AFM Stock Forecast page.