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Sierra Metals (TSE:SMT)
TSX:SMT
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Sierra Metals (SMT) AI Stock Analysis

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TSE:SMT

Sierra Metals

(TSX:SMT)

Rating:66Neutral
Price Target:
C$1.00
▼(-13.04%Downside)
Sierra Metals' score reflects strong financial performance and undervaluation, tempered by technical neutrality and significant risks from ongoing corporate events. The acquisition by Alpayana introduces uncertainty, affecting market perception and operational stability.

Sierra Metals (SMT) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

Sierra Metals Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionSierra Metals Inc., together with its subsidiaries, focuses on the production, exploration, and development of precious and base metals in Peru and Mexico. It primarily focuses on exploration of silver, copper, lead, zinc, and gold deposits. The company's flagship property is the 81.84% owned polymetallic Yauricocha Mine covering an area of 18,778 hectares located in the Yauyos province in Peru. It also holds 100% interest in the Bolivar mine, comprising of 12 mining concessions covering an area 15,217 hectares; and Cusi Mines that comprises of 73 concessions covering 11,977 hectares in Mexico. The company was formerly known as Dia Bras Exploration Inc. and changed its name to Sierra Metals Inc. in December 2012. Sierra Metals Inc. was incorporated in 1996 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.
How the Company Makes MoneySierra Metals generates revenue primarily through the extraction and sale of metals such as copper, zinc, silver, lead, and gold. These metals are extracted from the company's mining operations and sold in the global commodities markets. The company also benefits from long-term sales contracts with various purchasers, which help stabilize revenue streams. Additionally, Sierra Metals invests in exploration and development activities to increase resource estimates and extend the life of its mines, thereby enhancing future revenue potential. Strategic partnerships and joint ventures may also contribute to its earnings by sharing operational risks and costs while expanding its market reach.

Sierra Metals Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2025
(Q4-2024)
|
% Change Since: 1.77%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 07, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted Sierra Metals' strong operational and financial performance in 2024, with record revenue and production increases. Despite high capital expenditures and uncertainties due to an unsolicited takeover bid, the company showed significant growth and improvement, particularly in operational capabilities and resource expansion. The overall sentiment is positive due to the outweighing positive developments.
Q4-2024 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Revenue and Production
Sierra Metals achieved record revenues of over $272 million in 2024, a 19% increase over 2023. The company also exceeded 2024 production guidance, with throughput rates 11% higher than in 2023.
Operational Improvements at Yauricocha and Bolivar
Yauricocha achieved throughput rates 31% higher in Q4 2024 compared to Q4 2023. Bolivar consistently produced at its capacity of 5,000 tonnes per day and beyond, with a 10% increase in throughput rates compared to 2023.
Strong Financial Performance
Adjusted EBITDA from continuing operations was $74.2 million in 2024, a significant increase of 44% from 2023. Cash flow from operating activities before movements in working capital was $69.5 million, 60% higher than in 2023.
Debt Refinancing
Refinancing long-term debt into a $95 million facility enhanced working capital and financial flexibility.
Exploration and Resource Expansion
Nearly 44,000 meters were drilled at Bolivar in 2024 to expand resources. At Yauricocha, over 20,000 meters of diamond drilling was conducted to replace depleted resources.
Negative Updates
Flat and Lower Metal Production in Certain Areas
Bolivar's Q4 2024 copper production was flat compared to Q4 2023, and gold production was 19% lower.
Uncertainty Due to Unsolicited Takeover Bid
The unsolicited takeover bid has been a distraction and has adversely impacted Sierra Metals' value.
High Capital Expenditures
CapEx in 2024 was high at around $60 million, with expectations to remain high in 2025 at around $75 million.
Company Guidance
During the Sierra Metals Inc. Q4 and full-year 2024 results conference call, significant achievements were outlined, including surpassing production guidance for the year. The company reported an 11% increase in throughput rates over 2023, leading to a 10% rise in copper production. Yauricocha achieved record Q4 throughput of 798,000 tonnes, a 31% increase from the previous year, while Bolivar consistently operated at its capacity of 5,000 tonnes per day. Financially, Sierra Metals recorded a 19% increase in revenues to over $272 million and a 44% rise in adjusted EBITDA to $74.2 million. The company also managed to reduce its net debt-to-EBITDA ratio to one times. Looking forward, Sierra Metals anticipates further production growth in 2025, with expectations to increase copper, zinc, silver, and lead output while reducing all-in sustaining costs at Yauricocha by 20%. EBITDA is projected to grow to around $100 million, reflecting a 76% increase over 2024.

Sierra Metals Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Sierra Metals shows a strong revenue growth and profitability improvement, with a healthy gross profit margin. However, the historical volatility in profitability and increasing leverage pose potential risks.
Income Statement
72
Positive
Sierra Metals shows a healthy revenue growth with a recent increase in total revenue from 2024 to TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months). The gross profit margin improved to 27.4% in TTM from 24.1% in 2024. Net profit margin is also positive at 7.6% in TTM, marking a significant rebound from past losses. However, historical volatility in profitability, particularly in 2022 and 2023, suggests potential risks.
Balance Sheet
65
Positive
The company maintains a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 0.76 in TTM, reflecting a balanced capital structure. Return on Equity (ROE) is 20.7% in TTM, indicating efficient use of equity capital to generate profits. However, the equity ratio has decreased over the years, suggesting increasing leverage and potential financial risk.
Cash Flow
70
Positive
Sierra Metals shows strong cash generation with operating cash flows exceeding net income. The free cash flow growth rate is significant, improving from 2024 to TTM, which enhances liquidity. Despite this, capital expenditures are high, which may constrain free cash flow in the future.
BreakdownDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue272.63M229.54M165.23M272.01M246.89M
Gross Profit65.70M51.84M35.39M81.22M81.58M
EBITDA54.37M48.63M3.32M53.02M96.49M
Net Income15.78M-19.33M-87.50M-27.36M23.42M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets361.01M314.12M310.44M396.82M439.59M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments19.83M9.12M5.07M34.93M71.47M
Total Debt95.74M86.01M89.01M83.44M100.46M
Total Liabilities226.56M204.26M194.25M192.19M199.38M
Stockholders Equity101.13M75.26M81.61M169.25M201.00M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow5.50M6.19M-30.99M473.00K31.01M
Operating Cash Flow65.15M50.19M7.26M72.25M66.98M
Investing Cash Flow-57.02M-43.99M-38.26M-71.77M-34.25M
Financing Cash Flow2.65M-2.23M1.12M-36.89M-4.07M

Sierra Metals Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price1.15
Price Trends
50DMA
1.17
Negative
100DMA
1.04
Positive
200DMA
0.93
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
<0.01
Negative
RSI
50.01
Neutral
STOCH
20.00
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:SMT, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 1.15 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.15, below the 50-day MA of 1.17, and above the 200-day MA of 0.93, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of <0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 50.01 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 20.00 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TSE:SMT.

Sierra Metals Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
66
Neutral
$248.56M7.3626.39%25.53%
62
Neutral
€6.16B13.330.35%1.84%-3.77%-99.47%
50
Neutral
C$231.89M-30.68%
37
Underperform
C$313.68M-5.29%-43.69%
33
Underperform
C$343.27M-57.36%-62.76%
$232.44M
$190.66M146.32-0.07%
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE:SMT
Sierra Metals
1.15
0.40
53.33%
TSE:GQC
GoldQuest Mining
0.68
0.47
223.81%
TSE:NCX
NorthIsle Copper and Gold
1.34
0.83
162.75%
TSE:REG
Regulus Resources
2.50
0.60
31.58%
SRAFF
Sandfire Resources America
0.22
-0.02
-8.33%
ADBRF
Aldebaran Resources Inc
1.72
1.02
145.71%

Sierra Metals Corporate Events

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Sierra Metals Addresses Alpayana’s Acquisition Allegations
Negative
Jul 21, 2025

Sierra Metals has responded to allegations from Alpayana S.A.C. regarding the change of control entitlements for its senior officers, which were disclosed prior to Alpayana’s acquisition attempt. Alpayana’s hostile takeover bid, which began in December 2024, was marked by aggressive tactics and a refusal to engage in customary negotiations, leading to a protracted and costly acquisition process. Sierra Metals asserts that Alpayana’s actions have been detrimental to both companies and emphasizes the importance of honoring employee entitlements.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:SMT) stock is a Hold with a C$1.10 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Sierra Metals stock, see the TSE:SMT Stock Forecast page.

Shareholder Meetings
Sierra Metals Announces Combined Annual and Special Shareholder Meeting
Neutral
Jun 2, 2025

Sierra Metals has announced an annual general and special meeting of shareholders to be held on July 29, 2025, which will address both the annual business and specific matters requested by Alpayana S.A.C. The decision to combine the meetings was made to avoid the costs of holding separate meetings while still addressing the requisitioned matters. The Board of Directors is committed to operating in the best interests of stakeholders and is open to engaging with Alpayana on a transition plan.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:SMT) stock is a Hold with a C$1.10 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Sierra Metals stock, see the TSE:SMT Stock Forecast page.

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Sierra Metals Urges Shareholders to Act on Alpayana Offer Before Deadline
Negative
May 21, 2025

Sierra Metals has reminded its shareholders of the impending deadline to tender shares to Alpayana’s all-cash offer of $1.15 per common share. Alpayana has extended the offer period until May 23, 2025, and has already acquired approximately 86.7% of Sierra’s common shares. Despite Sierra’s efforts to negotiate a full acquisition, Alpayana has not committed to a second-step transaction to acquire 100% of the shares. Shareholders are advised to tender their shares promptly, as remaining minority shareholders could face reduced liquidity and market value of their shares, and potential conflicts of interest with Alpayana as the controlling shareholder.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:SMT) stock is a Hold with a C$1.10 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Sierra Metals stock, see the TSE:SMT Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Sierra Metals Reports Strong Q1 2025 Financial Results with Increased Metal Production
Positive
May 7, 2025

Sierra Metals reported a strong financial performance for Q1 2025, with revenues increasing by 36% to $86.1 million compared to Q1 2024, driven by higher metal production, particularly at the Yauricocha mine. The company’s adjusted EBITDA saw a significant rise of 114%, reflecting improved operational efficiency and increased metal output, positioning Sierra Metals favorably within the mining sector and enhancing its financial stability.

M&A Transactions
Sierra Metals Evaluates Enhanced Takeover Bid from Alpayana
Neutral
May 6, 2025

Sierra Metals has responded to an increased takeover bid from Alpayana S.A.C., raising the offer price to C$1.15 per share. Despite the premium offered, the Board has made no recommendation to shareholders, citing the conditionality and uncertainty of the offer. The Board encourages shareholders to review the details carefully, as the offer provides a significant premium to market price and offers liquidity and certainty of value amidst volatile markets.

M&A Transactions
Sierra Metals Reviews Amended Takeover Bid from Alpayana
Neutral
May 2, 2025

Sierra Metals has acknowledged receipt of an amended bid from Alpayana S.A.C., which has increased its offer price to acquire all common shares of the company from C$1.11 to C$1.15 per share. The company’s board of directors is reviewing the bid and plans to make a recommendation to shareholders soon. The bid’s expiry has been extended to May 12, 2025, but remains subject to numerous conditions at Alpayana’s discretion, which could impact Sierra Metals’ operations and stakeholder decisions.

Financial Disclosures
Sierra Metals’ Subsidiary Reports Q1 2025 Financial Results
Neutral
May 1, 2025

Sierra Metals’ subsidiary, Sociedad Minera Corona, has filed its unaudited financial results for Q1 2025 at the Lima Stock Exchange. The company holds an 81.84% interest in Corona. This announcement highlights Sierra Metals’ ongoing financial transparency and commitment to its stakeholders, potentially impacting its market position and investor confidence.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 22, 2025