Tractor Supply (TSCO) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $24.19B
• Dividend Yield: 1.8%
• Average Volume (3M): 5.70M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 24.8
• Beta (1Y): 0.66
• Revenue Growth: 4.26%
• EPS Growth: 0.73%
• Country: US
• Employees: 26,000
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Specialty Retail
• EPS (TTM): 0.43
• Shares Outstanding: 526,351,260
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 5,983,886
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 5,704,744
• PEG Ratio: 25.47
• Price to Book (P/B): 10.55
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.75
• P/FCF Ratio: 36.78
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.24
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.93
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 5.80
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 15.27
• 1Y Price Target: $57.59
• Price Target Upside: 25.33% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 20
• EPS Forecast (FY): 2.18
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $16.33B

• Rating: 67 Neutral
• Price Target: $51.00 ▲(10.99% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/12/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/12/26

The score is driven primarily by solid underlying profitability and steady cash generation, tempered by higher balance-sheet leverage and uneven free-cash-flow trends. Technicals are neutral-to-modestly positive, while valuation (P/E ~26) limits upside. The latest earnings call supports a constructive medium-term view via guided growth and strategic initiatives, but near-term margin and demand uncertainty remains.

Positive Factors

Resilient profitability and margins

Tractor Supply has maintained stable gross and net margins across multiple years, showing an ability to preserve pricing power and category mix in specialty retail. Durable margins support consistent earnings and cash generation, enabling reinvestment in stores, logistics and shareholder returns even through cyclical swings.

Omnichannel & logistics expansion

Investments in final‑mile hubs, digital capabilities and direct‑sales scale are structural: broader delivery coverage and stronger online fulfillment reduce dependence on in‑store traffic, enable faster growth in rural markets, and create a durable advantage in convenience and reach versus smaller competitors.

Disciplined capital returns & allocation

Management balances reinvestment (store openings, DCs, digital) with returning cash via buybacks and a long track record of dividend increases. This disciplined allocation signals confidence in free cash generation and supports shareholder value while still funding structural growth initiatives.

Negative Factors

Sharply higher leverage

Debt roughly doubled versus earlier years, elevating financial risk and reducing flexibility. Higher leverage can amplify downside in weak demand, constrain capital moves, and makes returns more dependent on balance‑sheet risk rather than purely operational improvement, limiting defensive capacity.

Volatile free cash flow

FCF volatility despite positive operating cash reduces predictability for funding capex, buybacks and debt service. With sizable planned capex and store expansion, inconsistent FCF increases refinancing and liquidity risk, making capital returns and deleveraging plans more sensitive to near‑term performance.

Margin pressure from promotions, tariffs and SG&A

Elevated promotions, higher tariffs and delivery expenses combined with SG&A deleverage materially compressed operating income. These are persistent cost headwinds that can erode structural profitability if not offset by pricing, supply actions, or productivity gains, particularly amid discretionary category softness.

Tractor Supply Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Tractor Supply Company operates as a rural lifestyle retailer in the United States. The company offers a selection of merchandise, including equine, livestock, pet, and small animal products necessary for their health, care, growth, and containment; hardware, truck, towing, and tool products; seasonal products, such as heating products, lawn and garden items, power equipment, gifts, and toys; work/recreational clothing and footwear; and maintenance products for agricultural and rural use. It provides its products under the 4health, Producer's Pride, American Farmworks, Red Shed, Bit & Bridle, Redstone, Blue Mountain, Retriever, C.E. Schmidt, Ridgecut, Countyline, Royal Wing, Dumor, Strive, Groundwork, Traveller, Huskee, Treeline, JobSmart, TSC Tractor Supply Co, Paws & Claws, and Untamed brands. As of June 25, 2022, it operated 2,016 Tractor Supply stores in 49 states; and 178 Petsense stores in 23 states. The company operates its retail stores under the Tractor Supply Company, Del's Feed & Farm Supply, and Petsense names; and operates websites under the TractorSupply.com and Petsense.com names. It sells its products to recreational farmers, ranchers, and others. The company was founded in 1938 and is based in Brentwood, Tennessee.

How the Company Makes Money

Tractor Supply primarily makes money by selling merchandise to consumers through its network of retail stores and its e-commerce channels, with revenue recognized from product sales across core categories such as livestock and equine supplies (including feed), pet food and supplies, hardware and farm supplies, lawn and garden products, tools, workwear, and seasonal goods. The company’s earnings are driven by transaction volume, product mix, and gross margin management (including pricing, promotions, and sourcing). In addition to merchandise sales, Tractor Supply generates revenue from services offered in-store where available (e.g., certain pet-related services) and from ancillary programs that support customer retention and repeat purchases (e.g., loyalty initiatives). Specific, itemized revenue contributions by category, service line, or named partnerships are null.

Tractor Supply Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong, steady earnings model with resilient margins (gross margin ~35–36%, net margin ~7–8% over 2020–2024) and consistent profitability. Offsetting this, leverage has increased materially (total debt rising to ~$9.6B in 2025; debt-to-equity elevated), and free cash flow is positive but choppy with a notable decline in 2025 (FCF growth -22.25%).

Income Statement

Revenue expanded steadily from ~$10.6B (2020) to ~$14.9B (2024), showing durable top-line momentum, though growth normalized to low-single-digits in 2023–2024 after the post-2020 surge. Profitability is consistently solid for specialty retail with stable operating leverage: gross margin held around ~35–36% (2020–2024) and net margin stayed ~7–8%. 2025 annual data shows margins recorded as 0.0 in the dataset (likely missing/invalid), but absolute earnings remained strong with net income still around ~$1.10B, implying continued profitability despite slower growth.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is more levered over time: total debt rose from ~$3.5B (2020) to ~$5.4B (2024), and then jumped to ~$9.6B in 2025, which increases financial risk and reduces flexibility. Equity increased modestly over the period (~$1.9B to ~$2.6B), but leverage remains elevated (debt-to-equity ~1.84x in 2020 rising to ~2.39x in 2024). Returns to shareholders are very strong (return on equity ~39% in 2020 and ~49–53% in 2021–2024), but that strength is partly supported by leverage, making the profile less defensive if operating conditions weaken.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is consistently positive, with operating cash flow generally in the ~$1.1B–$1.6B range (2021–2025) and free cash flow positive each year. However, free cash flow is volatile and has not consistently grown: it dropped sharply in 2021, recovered through 2022–2024, and then declined again in 2025 (free cash flow growth -22.25%). Free cash flow conversion versus net income is moderate and steady (~0.43–0.45 in 2021–2025), indicating earnings quality is reasonable, though not exceptionally cash-rich.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	15.52B	14.88B	14.56B	14.20B	12.73B
Gross Profit	5.16B	5.40B	5.23B	4.97B	4.48B
EBITDA	1.96B	1.91B	1.87B	1.78B	1.58B
Net Income	1.10B	1.10B	1.11B	1.09B	997.11M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	10.93B	9.81B	9.19B	8.49B	7.77B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	194.11M	251.49M	397.07M	202.50M	878.03M
Total Debt	5.94B	5.42B	5.04B	4.27B	3.92B
Total Liabilities	8.35B	7.54B	7.04B	6.45B	5.76B
Stockholders Equity	2.58B	2.27B	2.15B	2.04B	2.00B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	740.49M	636.79M	580.15M	583.61M	510.29M
Operating Cash Flow	1.64B	1.42B	1.33B	1.36B	1.14B
Investing Cash Flow	-778.58M	-643.92M	-653.07M	-1.09B	-627.34M
Financing Cash Flow	-914.06M	-922.50M	-486.39M	-938.78M	-975.11M

Tractor Supply Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 45.95
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSCO, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 45.95 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 50.47, below the 50-day MA of 51.80, and below the 200-day MA of 54.29, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.43 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 30.97 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 15.88 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSCO.

Tractor Supply Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CASY	72 Outperform	$24.74B	43.17	17.55%	0.39%	13.33%	13.33%
TSCO	67 Neutral	$24.19B	24.85	44.36%	1.80%	4.26%	0.73%
WSM	67 Neutral	$21.98B	23.88	51.88%	1.37%	5.10%	7.59%
DKS	64 Neutral	$17.11B	35.01	19.45%	2.33%	10.86%	-11.63%
GPC	63 Neutral	$13.86B	259.07	1.44%	3.33%	3.26%	-25.41%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
BBY	51 Neutral	$13.17B	12.85	38.54%	5.46%	-0.95%	-48.28%

Tractor Supply Corporate Events

Tractor Supply Boosts Dividend and Board Oversight Strategy

On February 10, 2026, Tractor Supply Company’s board appointed former Gap Inc. chief executive Sonia Syngal as an independent director, expanding the board to 10 members and adding deep experience in global supply chains, brand management and retail transformation. Announced publicly on February 11, 2026, her appointment underscores the retailer’s push to bolster strategic oversight as it executes its long-term growth plans and strengthens governance with a seasoned executive from major consumer and technology-driven businesses.

Also on February 11, 2026, Tractor Supply’s board raised its annual dividend by 4.3% to $0.96 per share, declaring a quarterly cash dividend of $0.24 per share payable on March 10, 2026, to shareholders of record on February 24, 2026. The increase, which marks the company’s 17th consecutive year of dividend growth, reinforces Tractor Supply’s emphasis on returning cash to investors and signals confidence in the resilience and cash-generating capacity of its rural lifestyle retail model.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSCO) stock is a Hold with a $59.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tractor Supply stock, see the TSCO Stock Forecast page.