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Tilly's Inc. (TLYS)
NYSE:TLYS
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Tilly's
(NYSE:TLYS)
48Neutral
Tilly's (TLYS) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)
Market Cap
$57.59M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)128.98K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.28
Revenue Growth-5.59%
EPS Growth-287.73%
CountryUS
Employees1,536
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength55
IndustryApparel - Retail
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-1.54
Shares Outstanding22,845,798
10 Day Avg. Volume105,859
30 Day Avg. Volume128,976
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG RatioN/A
Price to Book (P/B)N/A
Price to Sales (P/S)0.12
Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)-0.80
P/FCF Ratio0.00
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$2.50Price Target Upside30.89% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering1
Tilly's Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionTilly's, Inc. (TLYS) is a leading specialty retailer of casual apparel, footwear, and accessories for young men, young women, boys, and girls. The company operates a chain of retail stores across the United States and an e-commerce platform, offering a diverse mix of iconic global, emerging, and proprietary brands. Tilly's focuses on the youth and young adult market, providing a distinct shopping experience in a vibrant and engaging environment.
How the Company Makes MoneyTilly's generates revenue primarily through the sale of apparel, footwear, and accessories in its physical stores and online. The company's key revenue streams include direct sales to customers through its retail locations, which are strategically situated in malls and shopping centers, and through its e-commerce platform, which extends the brand's reach beyond its physical footprint. Tilly's works with a range of established and emerging brands, offering exclusive and limited-edition products that appeal to its target demographic. Additionally, the company may engage in marketing partnerships and collaborations with brands to enhance its offerings and attract more customers. Seasonal promotions, loyalty programs, and in-store events also contribute to driving sales and customer engagement.
Tilly's Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Tilly's faces significant financial challenges, with declining revenues and negative profit margins. High leverage and cash flow issues further undermine financial stability, necessitating operational improvements.Income Statement
Tilly's has shown a concerning decline in revenue and profitability over the years. The TTM data indicates a negative gross profit margin of 26.56% and a negative net profit margin of -8.92%, reflecting significant challenges in managing costs and achieving profitability. Revenue has decreased from $775.69 million in 2022 to $595.19 million in the TTM period. The negative EBIT and EBITDA margins further highlight operational inefficiencies.45
Neutral
Balance Sheet
The company's balance sheet shows a high debt-to-equity ratio of 1.80 in the TTM period, indicating high leverage and potential financial risk. The equity ratio is 29.53%, suggesting moderate reliance on equity financing. Despite these challenges, the company's stockholders' equity remains positive, which is a stabilizing factor.50
Neutral
Cash Flow
Tilly's cash flow situation is concerning, with negative free cash flow growth and an operating cash flow to net income ratio of -0.65 in the TTM period. This indicates cash flow challenges, as the company struggles with operational cash generation. The free cash flow to net income ratio is also negative, underscoring liquidity issues.40
Negative
| Breakdown | |||||
| TTM | Mar 2024 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2022 | Mar 2021 | Mar 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | ||||
| 595.18M | 623.08M | 672.28M | 775.69M | 531.33M | 619.30M | Gross Profit |
| 158.11M | 165.66M | 202.79M | 276.66M | 142.19M | 186.71M | EBIT |
| -41.63M | -27.55M | 11.45M | 87.59M | -3.04M | 28.45M | EBITDA |
| -32.54M | -18.15M | 25.59M | 104.43M | 16.02M | 49.40M | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| -53.12M | -34.49M | 9.68M | 64.25M | -1.15M | 22.62M |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | ||||
| 25.09M | 95.05M | 113.28M | 139.23M | 141.14M | 139.92M | Total Assets |
| 145.68M | 429.55M | 475.90M | 504.82M | 505.47M | 546.64M | Total Debt |
| 88.64M | 231.59M | 242.00M | 247.00M | 265.80M | 296.08M | Net Debt |
| 63.55M | 184.56M | 168.48M | 204.80M | 189.61M | 225.94M | Total Liabilities |
| 165.33M | 284.68M | 298.69M | 330.11M | 344.85M | 386.74M | Stockholders Equity |
| -19.65M | 144.87M | 177.21M | 174.71M | 160.62M | 159.90M |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | ||||
| -44.40M | -20.69M | -16.54M | 49.98M | 30.43M | 22.14M | Operating Cash Flow |
| -34.30M | -6.73M | -1.42M | 63.40M | 38.90M | 36.43M | Investing Cash Flow |
| 15.98M | -19.99M | 42.80M | -45.33M | -3.20M | -6.51M | Financing Cash Flow |
| 311.00K | 227.00K | -10.06M | -52.06M | -29.65M | -27.95M |
Tilly's Technical Analysis
Negative
1.91
Price Trends
3.47
Negative
3.74
Negative
4.36
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.41
Positive
24.61
Positive
33.81
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TLYS, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1.91 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.70, below the 50-day MA of 3.47, and below the 200-day MA of 4.36, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.41 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 24.61 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 33.81 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TLYS.
Tilly's Risk Analysis
Tilly's disclosed 46 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Tilly's reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Tilly's Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (59)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | $4.90B | 13.00 | 17.56% | ― | 7.71% | 40.01% | |
75 Outperform | $42.60B | 20.44 | 40.28% | 1.15% | 3.69% | 13.71% | |
70 Outperform | $1.95B | 9.88 | 46.71% | 4.02% | -3.44% | -11.74% | |
67 Neutral | $2.11B | 7.28 | 18.80% | 4.79% | 1.27% | 96.32% | |
61 Neutral | $3.85B | 7.79 | 47.77% | ― | 15.60% | 71.45% | |
59 Neutral | $12.18B | 11.09 | -1.08% | 3.77% | 1.26% | -19.82% | |
48 Neutral | $57.59M | ― | -37.63% | ― | -5.59% | -287.73% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
TLYS
Tilly's
1.91
-4.42
-69.83%
ANF
Abercrombie Fitch
70.26
-52.70
-42.86%
AEO
American Eagle
10.44
-13.33
-56.08%
BKE
Buckle
34.80
-0.15
-0.43%
ROST
Ross Stores
131.21
-7.03
-5.09%
URBN
Urban Outfitters
45.24
4.66
11.48%
Tilly's Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date: Mar 12, 2025 | % Change Since: -42.12% | Next Earnings Date: May 29, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reflects a mixed sentiment with both positive and negative aspects. While there are improvements in inventory management, product margins, and a strategic focus on expense reduction, the company is facing significant challenges in declining net sales, especially in e-commerce, and increased losses. The cautious optimism for the future is based on potential improvements in sales trends with warmer weather and strategic merchandising changes.Highlights
Inventory Management Improvement
Despite a challenging fourth quarter, inventory levels were reduced by 6.1% year-over-year as of March 1, 2025, due to specific actions taken to address this issue.
Increased Physical Store Sales Proportion
Total net sales from physical stores increased by 13.7% and represented 73.5% of total net sales compared to 72.6% last year.
Improved Product Margins
Product margins improved by 190 basis points compared to last year, primarily due to higher initial markups.
Significant Expense Reductions Planned
Targeted significant expense reductions through diligent scrutiny of store lease decisions, strict management of payroll, and negotiated reductions in contractual commitments.
Positive Trends with Warmer Weather
During a brief period of warmer weather, stores experienced positive comps, indicating that the spring assortment is on trend.
Lowlights
Decline in Total Net Sales
Total net sales of $147.3 million decreased by 14.9% compared to the fourth quarter of fiscal 2023.
Decrease in E-commerce Net Sales
E-commerce net sales decreased by 17.8% and represent 26.5% of total net sales compared to 27.4% last year.
Increased Pretax Loss
Pretax loss was $13.4 million compared to $6.9 million last year due to lower net sales and increased inventory valuation reserves.
Net Loss Despite Reduced SG&A
Net loss was $13.7 million or $0.45 per share compared to $20.6 million or $0.69 per share during last year's fourth quarter.
Store Closures
Ended the fiscal year with 240 total stores, a net decrease of eight stores compared to the end of fiscal 2023 after closing 10 stores during the fourth quarter.
Company Guidance
During the Tilly's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2024 Earnings Conference Call, the company reported a decline in total net sales by 14.9% to $147.3 million compared to the same quarter last year, which included an extra week accounting for $0.7 million in sales. The comparable net sales decreased by 11.2%, with physical stores showing a 9.8% decrease and e-commerce sales down by 17.8%. The gross margin dropped to 26% from 27% the previous year, despite a 190 basis point improvement in product margins. SG&A expenses were $52.4 million, or 35.6% of net sales, compared to $55.2 million last year. The company's pre-tax loss widened to $13.4 million from $6.9 million, while the net loss improved to $13.7 million or $0.45 per share from $20.6 million or $0.69 per share last year. Tilly's ended the fiscal year with $47 million in cash and marketable securities and anticipates having $25 million to $30 million by the end of the first quarter of fiscal 2025, with no need to access their credit facility due to anticipated reductions in inventory and expenses. Looking ahead, Tilly's projects first-quarter net sales between $105 million and $111 million, with comparable store sales expected to decrease by 8% to 3%.Tilly's Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Tilly’s Expands Board with Industry Veteran Appointment
Positive
Jan 7, 2025
Tilly’s, Inc. announced the appointment of Michael Relich to its Board of Directors, expanding the board to seven members. With over 40 years in retail, especially in systems and information technology, and experience in leadership roles at major companies like PacSun and Guess, Relich is expected to bring valuable insights to Tilly’s, enhancing its strategic direction in the retail industry.
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.