Tilly's (TLYS) AI Stock Analysis

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Tilly's

(NYSE:TLYS)

43Neutral

Tilly's stock score of 43 reflects significant financial challenges, bearish technical indicators, and concerning valuation metrics. Despite some strategic improvements noted in the earnings call, the company's declining revenues, profitability issues, and liquidity pressures significantly weigh down its overall performance.

Tilly's (TLYS) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Market Cap

$51.26M

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)133.89K

Price to Earnings (P/E)―

Beta (1Y)1.01

Revenue Growth-8.61%

EPS Growth-33.30%

CountryUS

Employees1,410

SectorConsumer Cyclical

Sector Strength58

IndustryApparel - Retail

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)-1.54

Shares Outstanding22,845,798

10 Day Avg. Volume126,272

30 Day Avg. Volume133,889

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG RatioN/A

Price to Book (P/B)N/A

Price to Sales (P/S)0.12

Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)-0.80

P/FCF Ratio0.00

Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$2.50

Price Target Upside47.06% Upside

Rating ConsensusHold

Number of Analyst Covering1

Tilly's Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionTilly's, Inc. operates as a specialty retailer of casual apparel, footwear, accessories, and hardgoods for young men and women, and boys and girls in the United States. Its apparel merchandise includes tops, outerwear, bottoms, and dresses; and accessories merchandise comprises backpacks, hydration bottles, hats, sunglasses, small electronics and accessories, handbags, watches, jewelry, and others, as well as hardgoods consists of skateboards, longboards, bikes, roller-skates, and equipment for snowboarding and surfing. The company also provides third-party merchandise assortment across its various product categories. As of March 14, 2022, it operated 241 stores. The company also sells its merchandise through its e-commerce website, tillys.com. Tilly's, Inc. was founded in 1982 and is headquartered in Irvine, California.

How the Company Makes MoneyTilly's generates revenue primarily through the sale of apparel, footwear, and accessories in its physical stores and online. The company's key revenue streams include direct sales to customers through its retail locations, which are strategically situated in malls and shopping centers, and through its e-commerce platform, which extends the brand's reach beyond its physical footprint. Tilly's works with a range of established and emerging brands, offering exclusive and limited-edition products that appeal to its target demographic. Additionally, the company may engage in marketing partnerships and collaborations with brands to enhance its offerings and attract more customers. Seasonal promotions, loyalty programs, and in-store events also contribute to driving sales and customer engagement.

Tilly's Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Tilly's financial performance is under significant pressure, with declining revenues and profitability, increased leverage, and negative cash flows. The income statement shows a declining trend in revenue and profitability, while the balance sheet reveals moderate financial stability with concerning leverage levels. Cash flow analysis indicates liquidity pressures with negative operating and free cash flow.

Income Statement

Neutral

Tilly's income statement reveals a declining trend in revenue and profitability. The company has experienced negative revenue growth over the past three years, with revenues falling from $775 million in 2022 to $569 million in 2025. The gross profit margin has also decreased significantly, causing a deeper negative net profit margin. EBIT and EBITDA margins are negative, indicating operating challenges.

Balance Sheet

Neutral

The balance sheet shows a stable equity ratio of around 30%, but the debt-to-equity ratio has increased due to declining equity. The return on equity is negative, reflecting recent losses. The overall financial stability is moderate, with a concerning leverage level, though cash reserves provide some liquidity cushion.

Cash Flow

Negative

Cash flow analysis indicates negative operating cash flow and free cash flow, highlighting liquidity pressures. The company has struggled to convert net income into cash flow, which is concerning for future operations. Free cash flow growth is negative, and reliance on debt could increase if cash flows do not improve.

Mar 2025	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022	Mar 2021
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
569.45M	623.08M	672.28M	775.69M	531.33M
	Gross Profit
153.42M	165.66M	202.79M	276.66M	142.19M
	EBIT
-49.85M	-27.55M	11.45M	87.59M	-3.04M
	EBITDA
-37.08M	-18.15M	25.59M	104.43M	16.02M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-46.23M	-34.49M	9.68M	64.25M	-1.15M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
46.71M	95.05M	113.28M	139.23M	141.14M
	Total Assets
342.46M	429.55M	475.90M	504.82M	505.47M
	Total Debt
193.87M	231.59M	242.00M	247.00M	265.80M
	Net Debt
172.81M	184.56M	168.48M	204.80M	189.61M
	Total Liabilities
241.59M	284.68M	298.69M	330.11M	344.85M
	Stockholders Equity
100.87M	144.87M	177.21M	174.71M	160.62M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-50.24M	-20.69M	-16.54M	49.98M	30.43M
	Operating Cash Flow
-42.02M	-6.73M	-1.42M	63.40M	38.90M
	Investing Cash Flow
15.75M	-19.99M	42.80M	-45.33M	-3.20M
	Financing Cash Flow
294.00K	227.00K	-10.06M	-52.06M	-29.65M

Tilly's Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Negative

Last Price1.70

Price Trends

50DMA

2.81

Negative

100DMA

3.43

Negative

200DMA

4.11

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

-0.32

Negative

RSI

30.90

Neutral

STOCH

30.01

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TLYS, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1.7 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.94, below the 50-day MA of 2.81, and below the 200-day MA of 4.11, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.32 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 30.90 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 30.01 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TLYS.

Tilly's Risk Analysis

Tilly's disclosed 46 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Tilly's reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Tilly's Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (60)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
URBN	76 Outperform	$4.63B	11.78	17.56%	―	7.71%	40.01%
BKE	66 Neutral	$1.77B	8.91	46.71%	4.05%	-3.44%	-11.74%
AEO	65 Neutral	$1.90B	6.58	18.80%	4.53%	1.27%	96.32%
Sector *	60 Neutral	$6.55B	11.40	3.24%	4.25%	2.38%	-21.28%
CTRN	54 Neutral	$164.81M	―	-31.87%	―	0.69%	-254.98%
ZUMZ	49 Neutral	$229.34M	―	-0.50%	―	1.57%	98.64%
TLYS	43 Neutral	$51.26M	―	-37.62%	―	-8.61%	-33.30%

* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average

Performance Comparison

TLYS

Tilly's

1.70

-4.18

-71.09%

AEO

American Eagle

11.23

-11.00

-49.48%

BKE

Buckle

35.09

1.35

4.00%

CTRN

Citi Trends

20.83

-0.95

-4.36%

URBN

Urban Outfitters

50.84

12.06

31.10%

ZUMZ

Zumiez

12.20

-4.78

-28.15%

Tilly's Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date: Mar 12, 2025 | % Change Since: -48.48% | Next Earnings Date: May 29, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

The earnings call reflects a mixed sentiment with both positive and negative aspects. While there are improvements in inventory management, product margins, and a strategic focus on expense reduction, the company is facing significant challenges in declining net sales, especially in e-commerce, and increased losses. The cautious optimism for the future is based on potential improvements in sales trends with warmer weather and strategic merchandising changes.

Highlights

Inventory Management Improvement

Despite a challenging fourth quarter, inventory levels were reduced by 6.1% year-over-year as of March 1, 2025, due to specific actions taken to address this issue.

Increased Physical Store Sales Proportion

Total net sales from physical stores increased by 13.7% and represented 73.5% of total net sales compared to 72.6% last year.

Improved Product Margins

Product margins improved by 190 basis points compared to last year, primarily due to higher initial markups.

Significant Expense Reductions Planned

Targeted significant expense reductions through diligent scrutiny of store lease decisions, strict management of payroll, and negotiated reductions in contractual commitments.

Positive Trends with Warmer Weather

During a brief period of warmer weather, stores experienced positive comps, indicating that the spring assortment is on trend.

Lowlights

Decline in Total Net Sales

Total net sales of $147.3 million decreased by 14.9% compared to the fourth quarter of fiscal 2023.

Decrease in E-commerce Net Sales

E-commerce net sales decreased by 17.8% and represent 26.5% of total net sales compared to 27.4% last year.

Increased Pretax Loss

Pretax loss was $13.4 million compared to $6.9 million last year due to lower net sales and increased inventory valuation reserves.

Net Loss Despite Reduced SG&A

Net loss was $13.7 million or $0.45 per share compared to $20.6 million or $0.69 per share during last year's fourth quarter.

Store Closures

Ended the fiscal year with 240 total stores, a net decrease of eight stores compared to the end of fiscal 2023 after closing 10 stores during the fourth quarter.

Company Guidance

During the Tilly's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2024 Earnings Conference Call, the company reported a decline in total net sales by 14.9% to $147.3 million compared to the same quarter last year, which included an extra week accounting for $0.7 million in sales. The comparable net sales decreased by 11.2%, with physical stores showing a 9.8% decrease and e-commerce sales down by 17.8%. The gross margin dropped to 26% from 27% the previous year, despite a 190 basis point improvement in product margins. SG&A expenses were $52.4 million, or 35.6% of net sales, compared to $55.2 million last year. The company's pre-tax loss widened to $13.4 million from $6.9 million, while the net loss improved to $13.7 million or $0.45 per share from $20.6 million or $0.69 per share last year. Tilly's ended the fiscal year with $47 million in cash and marketable securities and anticipates having $25 million to $30 million by the end of the first quarter of fiscal 2025, with no need to access their credit facility due to anticipated reductions in inventory and expenses. Looking ahead, Tilly's projects first-quarter net sales between $105 million and $111 million, with comparable store sales expected to decrease by 8% to 3%.

Tilly's Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy

Tilly’s Expands Board with Industry Veteran Appointment

Positive

Jan 7, 2025

Tilly’s, Inc. announced the appointment of Michael Relich to its Board of Directors, expanding the board to seven members. With over 40 years in retail, especially in systems and information technology, and experience in leadership roles at major companies like PacSun and Guess, Relich is expected to bring valuable insights to Tilly’s, enhancing its strategic direction in the retail industry.

Glossary

OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.

NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.

UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.