Swedbank AB (SWDBY) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $39.32B
• Dividend Yield: 6.22%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.10K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 11.0
• Beta (1Y): 0.69
• Revenue Growth: -11.76%
• EPS Growth: -0.87%
• Country: US
• Employees: 16,933
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Banks - Regional
• EPS (TTM): 0.81
• Shares Outstanding: 1,132,005,700
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,245
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,096
• PEG Ratio: -1.84
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.59
• Price to Sales (P/S): 3.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -7.67
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 25.81
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 9.66
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 19.50
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 33.20
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): 3.01
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $7.84B

• Rating: 65 Neutral
• Price Target: $38.00 ▲(6.44% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 01/31/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 01/31/26

The score is driven primarily by financial quality concerns from highly volatile operating/free cash flow despite strong profitability, with a constructive (but overbought) technical uptrend and supportive valuation (reasonable P/E and high dividend yield). Earnings call factors are balanced: strong ROE/capital and dividend strength are offset by NII pressure from rate cuts, rising costs, Entercard credit effects, and ongoing regulatory uncertainty.

Positive Factors

ROE achievement

Meeting a mid-teens ROE target demonstrates a profitable, capital-efficient banking model. Sustained ROE near targets implies strong underlying margins, disciplined capital allocation and ability to generate shareholder returns over the medium term, supporting dividends and reinvestment.

Strong CET1 capital buffer

A 17.8% CET1 ratio with a multi-hundred basis-point buffer provides regulatory resilience and flexibility. Robust capital supports acquisitions, cushions RWA growth from recent deals, and allows a sustainable payout policy while absorbing shocks from credit or market stress over the next several quarters.

Loan and market share growth

Material lending expansion and front‑book mortgage gains indicate successful customer acquisition and scale in core markets. Persistent volume growth enhances franchise economics, supports diversified NII generation, and deepens client relationships that bolster long-term revenue resilience.

Negative Factors

Net interest income pressure

Policy rate cuts represent a structural near-term headwind to net interest income and margins. For a bank reliant on NII, lower rates compress core profitability, reduce cushion for cost increases, and can persist across multiple quarters until repricing or balance-sheet mix adjustments restore margins.

Mortgage margin competition

Intense competitive pressure in the mortgage market undermines pricing power for a large portion of the loan book. Given mortgages' high share of assets, sustained margin compression would materially erode bank earnings and ROE unless offset by higher volumes or cost reductions over the medium term.

Volatile cash generation

Recurrent swings to negative operating and free cash flow reduce predictability of internal funding. Weak cash conversion limits flexibility for investments, acquisitions or dividends, increases dependence on external funding, and elevates earnings sensitivity to cyclical shocks over time.

Swedbank AB Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Swedbank AB (publ) provides various banking products and services to individuals and companies. The company operates through Swedish Banking, Baltic Banking, and Large Corporates & Institutions segments. It offers savings accounts, mutual funds and insurance savings, pension savings, institutional asset management, and other savings and investment products; private residential lending, consumer financing, corporate lending, leasing, other financing products, trade finance, and factoring services; and current accounts, cash handling, debit and credit cards, card acquiring, other payment products, as well as domestic, international, mobile, and document payments. The company also provides equity trading, structured products, corporate finance, custody services, fixed income and currency trading, and other capital market products; and administrative services, treasury operations, real estate brokerage and management, legal services, safe deposit boxes, and others. In addition, it offers asset management, as well as life insurance and pension services; investment and trading services, including currency, fixed income, and equity and related derivatives services, as well as structured products; advisory and investment banking products and services, such as corporate financing, debt capital market, leveraged finance, and loans and syndication; and transaction banking services comprising cash management, trade finance, securities, commercial payments, account, and clearing and settlement services. Further, the company provides telephone, Internet, and mobile banking services. The company operates 153 branches in Sweden, 17 branches in Estonia, 21 in Latvia, and 42 in Lithuania. It also has operations in Norway, Finland, Denmark, China, the United States, and South Africa. The company was formerly known as ForeningsSparbanken AB and changed its name to Swedbank AB (publ) in September 2006. Swedbank AB (publ) was founded in 1820 and is headquartered in Sundbyberg, Sweden.

How the Company Makes Money

Swedbank makes money primarily through (1) net interest income, (2) net fee and commission income, and (3) other income streams typical for universal banks. 1) Net interest income (largest driver in most banking models): Swedbank earns interest on loans and other interest-bearing assets—such as residential mortgages, corporate and SME lending, and consumer credit—and pays interest on deposits and other funding sources. The difference between interest earned and interest paid (the net interest margin) generates a substantial portion of earnings. Profitability in this stream is influenced by the size and mix of the loan book, credit quality/loan losses, funding costs, and the level and shape of market interest rates. 2) Net fee and commission income: Swedbank generates fees from payment services (e.g., transfers and payment processing), card services, account-related services, and advisory/administration fees tied to savings and investment products. This can include fees from asset management and investment-related services provided to retail and institutional clients (e.g., management and distribution fees) and fees for various corporate banking services. 3) Other income (market-related and miscellaneous): Swedbank may earn income from financial transactions and treasury activities (e.g., customer-driven foreign exchange and interest rate products and related risk management), as well as other operating income. The contribution of these items can vary with customer activity and financial market conditions. Key factors that contribute to earnings include the bank’s scale in Swedish mortgage and retail banking, its corporate/SME franchise, high transaction volumes through payments infrastructure, and the breadth of its customer base across Sweden and the Baltics. If information about specific named partnerships or precise segment revenue splits is required, it is null.

Swedbank AB Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong earnings and solid margins support results (income statement score 74), and equity/ROE trends are decent despite structurally high leverage for a bank (balance sheet score 64). However, highly unstable operating and free cash flow with large negative years (cash flow score 38, including 2025) is a major quality and consistency risk that pulls the score down.

Income Statement

Revenue expanded strongly over the past several years, with growth peaking in 2023 and remaining positive in 2024, though 2025 revenue declined versus 2024. Profitability is solid with consistently large net income and strong 2024 margins (net margin ~24%, EBIT margin ~31%), but reported margin consistency is uneven across years (some margin fields look volatile/out-of-pattern), which reduces confidence in the smoothness of the trend.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is sizable and equity has grown over time, supporting decent returns on equity (about 12%–17% from 2022–2024). However, leverage is structurally high (debt-to-equity roughly 4–5x in recent years), which is typical for banks but still elevates sensitivity to credit/market cycles; 2025 also shows debt rising while revenue fell year-over-year.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is the weakest area due to significant volatility: operating cash flow and free cash flow were strongly positive in 2020–2021 and 2024, but sharply negative in 2022–2023 and again in 2025. While 2024 free cash flow was roughly in line with net income, the repeated swing to large negative cash flow raises concerns about consistency and the reliability of cash conversion through the cycle.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	119.82B	144.06B	131.14B	64.54B	49.66B
Gross Profit	67.90B	73.33B	72.25B	51.29B	46.70B
EBITDA	43.48B	47.15B	45.63B	29.58B	27.50B
Net Income	32.76B	34.87B	34.13B	21.36B	20.87B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	3.06T	3.01T	2.86T	2.85T	2.75T
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	263.63B	325.60B	252.99B	365.99B	360.15B
Total Debt	909.93B	916.01B	873.63B	881.46B	808.09B
Total Liabilities	2.84T	2.79T	2.66T	2.68T	2.59T
Stockholders Equity	225.80B	218.87B	198.76B	176.05B	161.67B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-46.83B	80.41B	-146.00B	-18.98B	49.16B
Operating Cash Flow	-46.34B	80.82B	-145.15B	-18.62B	49.41B
Investing Cash Flow	-3.67B	-147.00M	-418.00M	691.00M	628.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-1.43B	-12.64B	32.17B	10.02B	14.15B

Swedbank AB Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 35.70
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SWDBY, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 35.7 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 36.79, below the 50-day MA of 37.72, and above the 200-day MA of 31.52, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.65 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 37.79 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 31.42 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SWDBY.

Swedbank AB Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
MTB	74 Outperform	$29.52B	11.54	9.88%	2.76%	-0.81%	20.34%
RF	72 Outperform	$21.90B	11.00	11.45%	3.74%	4.00%	28.54%
FITB	68 Neutral	$39.85B	12.33	11.96%	3.14%	0.15%	11.62%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
HBAN	67 Neutral	$30.63B	11.61	10.06%	3.50%	5.73%	38.39%
SWDBY	65 Neutral	$39.32B	10.97	15.37%	6.22%	-11.76%	-0.87%
FCNCA	61 Neutral	$21.56B	12.03	9.94%	0.37%	-3.18%	-3.10%