SU Group Holdings Ltd (SUGP) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $7.15M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 95.45K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 2.08
• Revenue Growth: N/A
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: US
• Employees: 202
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Security & Protection Services
• EPS (TTM): -1.22
• Shares Outstanding: 563,092
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 83,619
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 95,452
• PEG Ratio: <0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.59
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.27
• P/FCF Ratio: -3.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 72.47
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.70
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 16.87
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -34.19
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 44 Neutral
• Price Target: $5.00 ▼(-22.36% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 01/22/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 01/22/26

The score is driven primarily by weakened financial performance, with a swing to losses and negative operating/free cash flow despite low balance-sheet leverage. Technicals add a secondary headwind due to the stock trading below key moving averages, while valuation is constrained by a negative P/E and no dividend support.

Positive Factors

Low leverage / strong balance sheet

Very low debt relative to equity provides durable financial flexibility. With modest leverage the company can fund operations, manage working-capital needs, and pursue strategic actions without immediate refinancing risk, buffering it through cyclical pressure while execution is restored.

Proven prior profitability

A multi-year track record of profitability shows the underlying business model can deliver positive margins. That history supports the view that current losses may be cyclical or operational rather than structural, and recovery in pricing, mix or cost control could restore sustainable earnings.

Lean workforce / operational agility

A relatively small employee base implies lower fixed labor overhead and potential agility in reallocating resources. This structure can enable faster cost adjustments and operational changes, helping the company improve margins and scale selectively without large permanent cost increases.

Negative Factors

Profitability collapse and margin pressure

A sharp swing to negative net margin and large gross-margin compression indicate meaningful deterioration in pricing power, mix, or cost control. Such structural margin pressure undermines free cash generation and requires sustained operational fixes or pricing recovery to re-establish durable profitability.

Inconsistent, negative cash generation

Repeated swings into negative operating and free cash flow reduce ability to self-fund growth, capex, or working-capital needs. Persistent negative cash generation increases reliance on external financing and raises execution risk, constraining durable investments in the business until cash flow stabilizes.

Volatile returns; ROE deterioration

A reversal from strong ROE to negative indicates erosion of shareholder value and inconsistent returns on invested capital. This volatility signals that capital allocation or operating execution failed recently, and sustained improvement is needed before returns normalize and investor confidence can rebuild.

SU Group Holdings Ltd Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

SU Group Holdings Limited, through its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated security-related services company in Hong Kong and internationally. The company operates through two segments, Security-Related Engineering Services Business; and Security Guarding and Screening Services Business. It primarily provides security-related engineering, security guarding and screening, and related vocational training services. The company also engages in the design, supply, installation, maintenance, and testing and commissioning of various security systems. In addition, it offers threat detection systems, including X-ray machines, trace detection products, metal detectors, and mail screening machines; traffic and pedestrian control systems, such as traffic control system, automatic fare control systems, turnstiles, automatic door system, and people counting systems; and extra-low voltage systems comprising closed-circuit television, access control, public address, and building management systems to commercial properties, public facilities, and residential properties. Further, the company provides screening services, such as the detection of explosives, and incendiary devices in air cargo consignment and detection of dangerous goods through threat detection systems by screeners; and training courses for basic security services, mandatory basic safety, and training revalidation courses. Additionally, it offers equipment leasing services. The company was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in Kwun Tong, Hong Kong. SU Group Holdings Limited operates as a subsidiary of Exceptional Engineering Limited.

SU Group Holdings Ltd Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financials are pressured: the latest year swung to a net loss with negative revenue growth and materially lower gross margin, alongside negative operating and free cash flow. The balance sheet is a relative strength due to low leverage, but profitability and cash generation instability weigh heavily.

Income Statement

Profitability deteriorated sharply in the latest annual period (2025-09-30), with the company swinging to a net loss (net margin ~-9.6%) versus solid profitability in 2024 (net margin ~5.8%). Revenue growth also turned negative (about -3.1% after modest growth in 2024), and gross margin compressed materially (from ~26.1% to ~16.0%), signaling weaker pricing/mix and/or cost pressure. The key strength is that the business has demonstrated it can generate profits in prior years (2021–2024), but the most recent results show a clear break in the earnings trend.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet looks conservatively levered, with low debt relative to equity across the period (debt-to-equity ~0.07–0.09 in 2023–2025), which reduces financial risk. However, returns have become volatile: return on equity was strong in 2022–2024 but turned negative in 2025 due to the net loss. Overall, the company has a solid capital base and modest leverage, but current profitability needs to recover to protect equity value.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is inconsistent. In the latest annual period (2025-09-30), operating cash flow and free cash flow were both negative (about -15.4M and -17.1M), following positive operating and free cash flow in 2024, and negative operating/free cash flow again in 2023. While free cash flow as a percentage of net income can look optically strong in loss years (e.g., 2025), the more important takeaway is the recurring pattern of cash flow swings, which raises execution and working-capital risk.

Breakdown	Sep 2025	Sep 2024	Sep 2023	Sep 2022	Sep 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	192.02M	182.16M	163.69M	136.45M	117.57M
Gross Profit	30.69M	47.60M	48.04M	5.01M	4.63M
EBITDA	-15.24M	15.39M	14.89M	10.94M	6.99M
Net Income	-18.45M	10.65M	9.70M	7.76M	5.80M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	127.76M	157.08M	114.44M	11.92M	12.76M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	25.35M	52.34M	16.40M	25.19M	31.08M
Total Debt	11.02M	7.30M	3.77M	3.51M	2.93M
Total Liabilities	41.60M	59.36M	58.02M	6.61M	7.44M
Stockholders Equity	86.15M	97.72M	56.42M	40.09M	40.32M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-17.07M	10.85M	-14.32M	275.61K	2.02M
Operating Cash Flow	-15.43M	14.10M	-13.54M	569.39K	2.39M
Investing Cash Flow	-1.64M	-3.25M	-112.16K	-2.25M	14.87M
Financing Cash Flow	90.00	25.18M	4.79M	-8.07M	-16.55M

SU Group Holdings Ltd Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 6.44
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SUGP, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 6.44 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.16, above the 50-day MA of 5.69, and above the 200-day MA of 6.42, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.18 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 38.72 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 28.57 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SUGP.

SU Group Holdings Ltd Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
VRME	58 Neutral	$11.04M	-0.84	-37.45%	―	-14.21%	-20.44%
UUU	55 Neutral	$16.14M	-1.30	26.86%	―	-23.22%	―
BKYI	48 Neutral	$6.83M	-1.23	-73.33%	―	-1.19%	86.72%
SUGP	44 Neutral	$7.15M	-0.97	-4.31%	―	―	―