Education
About Us
Working with TipRanks
Follow Us
Sasol Ltd (SSL)
NYSE:SSL
Top Page
Sasol
(NYSE:SSL)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:67Neutral
Price Target:
$9.50
▲(45.71% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/23/26
Overall score reflects mixed financial performance (volatile profitability and weak free cash flow history) partially offset by improving balance-sheet direction and a constructive technical setup. The latest earnings call shows meaningful operational and cash-discipline progress, but impairments and macro/market pressures keep the outlook balanced. Valuation is broadly neutral at a mid-range P/E with no dividend yield provided.
Positive Factors
Integrated feedstock-to-products value chain
Sasol's vertically integrated model lets it optimize feedstock use and capture margin across conversion and marketing. Over months this supports resilience to input swings, the ability to shift slate to higher‑margin products and sustained cash generation potential versus asset-light peers.
Improving cash generation & cost discipline
Delivering positive free cash flow after multi-year weakness reflects durable execution on cash levers: lower cash fixed costs, CapEx discipline and working capital focus. Sustained FCF improvement enhances financial flexibility for deleveraging, sustaining operations and funding strategic transformation.
Strengthening balance sheet and liquidity buffer
Lower gross debt, sizable liquidity headroom and an explicit deleveraging pathway provide structural financial resilience. This buffer reduces refinancing risk, supports capex and transformation plans and allows management to weather commodity cycles without immediate distress.
Negative Factors
Significant impairments and earnings volatility
Large non-cash impairments point to structural asset value deterioration and reduce recoverable capital in key CGUs. Persistent earnings volatility and write‑downs impair return on invested capital, complicate long‑term planning and constrain distributable cash for shareholders.
Deferred gas monetisation and project delays
Delays and restrictions in Mozambique gas monetisation undermine a key strategic growth avenue and postpone expected cash flows. Extended timelines and execution risk materially reduce the near‑term earnings contribution from gas and raise uncertainty around long‑term project returns.
Structural weakness in international chemicals demand
Sustained softer chemical markets, regional overcapacity and elevated energy costs compress margins in a core earnings segment. Even with self‑help actions, prolonged weak demand can structurally reduce International Chemicals cashflows and slow margin recovery over the next several quarters.
Sasol (SSL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$5.69B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)2.33M
Price to Earnings (P/E)76.2
Beta (1Y)0.70
Revenue Growth-6.73%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees27,678
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryChemicals - Specialty
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.58
Shares Outstanding644,261,660
10 Day Avg. Volume2,694,664
30 Day Avg. Volume2,331,070
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.06
Price to Book (P/B)0.33
Price to Sales (P/S)0.20
P/FCF Ratio3.88
Enterprise Value/Market Cap31.56
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.74
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.69
Enterprise Value/Ebitda4.41
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusModerate Sell
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)1.2
Revenue Forecast (FY)$14.49B
Sasol Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionSasol Limited, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated chemical and energy company in South Africa. The company operates through six segments: Mining, Gas, Fuels, Chemicals Africa, Chemicals America, and Chemicals Eurasia. It offers acetate, acrylate monomer, ammonia, carbon, chlor alkali, explosive, fertilizer, glycol ether, hydrocarbon blend, inorganic, ketone, mining, polymer, and wax chemicals, as well as lacquer thinners, light alcohols, and phenolics or cresylic acids. The company also markets and sells brick, electrical, engine, hand, non-ferrous, and window cleaners, as well as parts wash products and super soaps; degreasers; bitumen, fuel oils, lubricants, motor fuels, and gas-to-liquid fuels; and other fuels, such as illuminating paraffin, light cycle and distillate oils, light straight run fuels, and synthetic paraffinic kerosene. In addition, it wholesales diesel and petrol; operates coal mines; offers engineering services; and develops lower carbon solutions. Further, the company explores, develops, produces, markets, and distributes natural gas and related products through pipelines. It serves adhesive, agriculture and forestry, automotive and transportation, aviation, burner fuel, chemical, construction and material, corrosion protection, electrical and electronic, flavor and fragrance, furniture, health and medical, household and consumer goods, industrial product, lubricant, manufacturing, mining, packaging, paint and coating, personal care, pharmaceutical, plastic and polymer, publishing and ink, pulp and paper, rubber and tyre, specialty graphite, steel and foundry, textile and leather, water treatment, and other industries. Sasol Limited was founded in 1950 and is headquartered in Johannesburg, South Africa.
How the Company Makes MoneySasol generates revenue through multiple channels, primarily by producing and selling synthetic fuels derived from coal and natural gas, which are essential for transportation and industrial use. The company's chemicals segment also contributes significantly to its earnings, with a diverse portfolio of products such as polymers, solvents, and other specialty chemicals used in various industries. Sasol benefits from its integrated business model, which allows it to optimize its production processes and reduce costs. Key revenue streams include sales from synthetic fuels, chemical products, and gas supply agreements. Additionally, Sasol engages in strategic partnerships and joint ventures that enhance its operational capabilities and market reach, contributing to its overall profitability. Factors such as global oil prices, demand for chemical products, and sustainability initiatives also play a critical role in influencing the company's financial performance.
Sasol Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 23, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 25, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call balanced clear operational and financial progress against meaningful macro and asset-specific headwinds. Management reported tangible delivery on controllable levers (positive free cash flow, lower cash fixed costs, CapEx discipline, Secunda production improvement, successful destoning plant start-up, hedging and liquidity) and meaningful progress on the Grow & Transform agenda (renewables, offsets, SAF grant). Offsetting these positives are sizable impairments, a large reduction in EBIT driven by non-cash remeasurements, deferred gas monetization and continued weak chemical market conditions. Overall, the company is demonstrating disciplined execution and improving resilience, but significant near-term challenges and impairments temper the outlook.Q2-2026 Updates
Positive Updates
Positive free cash flow and improved cash generation
Generated positive free cash flow in H1 FY26 for the first time in four years with a >100% improvement versus prior period; free cash flow generation cited as a key success of execution of cash levers.
Net debt and liquidity position
Net debt ended at USD 3.8 billion with liquidity headroom of more than USD 4 billion; gross debt down 9% year-on-year and management remains on a deleveraging pathway aiming for net debt below USD 3.7 billion by year-end (target now likely FY28 under current macro).
Operational recovery at Secunda and Southern Africa value chain
Secunda production increased 10% year-on-year supported by improved coal quality and gasifier availability; destoning plant reached beneficial operation in December, operating at target specification (~12% ash) and within budget, helping restore value chain stability.
Cost and capital discipline
Cash fixed costs reduced (group -2% year-on-year) and capital expenditure was 43% lower year-on-year in H1 FY26; full-year CapEx guidance was revised down by ZAR 2 billion to ZAR 22–24 billion and the company emphasised that this is not a deferral rolling into later years.
International Chemicals self-help progress
International Chemicals adjusted EBITDA improved ~10% year-on-year despite tough markets, with cash fixed costs down 6% YoY (10% when normalized for exchange rates) and asset/variable cost optimization and commercial initiatives beginning to deliver benefits.
Hedging and risk management
Completed FY26 hedging program; oil hedges cover 55–60% with an average floor of approximately $59/bl and FX cover of 25–30% via zero-cost collars in the ZAR18–22 range, helping manage macro volatility and protecting the balance sheet.
Renewables and Grow & Transform progress
Secured an additional 300 MW of renewable energy bringing total secured capacity to >1.2 GW (target 2 GW by 2030); 180 MW operational, 740 MW under construction; received renewable energy trading licence and contracted ~9 million tonnes of carbon offsets (~60% of near-term requirement).
Commercial and operational wins at Natref and RBCT
Natref operational performance improved (commissioning of last low-carbon boiler) and Sasol leased Richards Bay Coal Terminal capacity generating additional income (management later quantified >ZAR1 billion from exports plus ~ZAR0.5 billion leasing entitlement).
Negative Updates
Group earnings pressure and lower adjusted EBITDA
Group adjusted EBITDA was lower year-on-year due to weaker macro conditions and softer chemical pricing; gross margin declined 6% YoY and overall earnings were impacted by commodity and FX dynamics.
Significant impairments and non-cash remeasurements
Earnings before interest and tax decreased 52% largely due to non-cash remeasurement items; total impairments of ZAR 7.8 billion (vs ZAR 5.7 billion prior year) including ZAR 3.0 billion impairment on Secunda liquid fuels refinery CGU (fully impaired) and ZAR 3.9 billion impairment related to Mozambique/PSA gas.
Challenging macro environment
Brent crude down 14% YoY and the rand oil price down c.17% YoY; global chemical markets faced overcapacity, softer demand and high European energy costs—these external factors weighed on pricing and margins across the portfolio.
Mozambique/PSA gas delays and deferred monetization
Start-up delays at the CTT gas-to-power project and physical restrictions at PSA led to deferred gas monetization, a revised gas production profile and related impairment (ZAR 3.9 billion); gas EBITDA declined on lower volumes and FX headwinds.
Unplanned outages and portfolio disruption
An unplanned JV ethylene cracker outage at the end of the prior year and other operational constraints contributed to weaker-than-expected International Chemicals market outcomes and forced additional reset actions.
Safety incident
A tragic fatality occurred in September 2025; investigation found gaps in risk awareness and inconsistent adherence to safety rules. Management reported strengthened controls and improvements in leading safety indicators but the fatality remains a material negative.
Net debt still above management’s near-term target
Net debt at USD 3.8 billion is slightly above the full-year target (below USD 3.7 billion); management now expects the originally communicated net debt target and dividend trigger (USD 3.0bn) to be achieved around FY27–FY28 under varying macro scenarios.
Working capital and inventory timing
Temporary increase in net working capital in H1 due to timing lag between higher production and sales; management expects unwind opportunities before year-end but working capital build weighed on near-term cash flow.
Company Guidance
The company reiterated disciplined financial guidance and targets for FY‑26 and beyond: H1 delivered positive free cash flow (first time in 4 years, >100% improvement) and 3% higher sales volumes while gross margin fell 6% and EBIT declined 52% (driven in part by ZAR 7.8bn impairments, including ZAR 3.0bn at Secunda and ZAR 3.9bn on the Mozambique/PSA). Net debt ended at USD 3.8bn with a year‑end target below USD 3.7bn (CMD net‑debt/dividend trigger of USD 3.0bn expected around FY‑28 under current macro assumptions); liquidity headroom remains >USD 4bn and gross debt is 9% lower YoY. Capital guidance was reduced by ZAR 2bn to ZAR 22–24bn for FY‑26 (H1 CapEx was 43% lower YoY); cash fixed costs were cut ~2% group‑wide (Chemicals cash fixed costs down 6% YoY, 10% when FX‑normalised) and Sasol aims to keep cash fixed cost increases below inflation and net working capital between 15.5–16.5%. Hedging is in place (H2 oil hedge cover ~55–60% with an average floor ≈$59/bbl; 25–30% of rand‑USD exposure hedged via zero‑cost collars ~ZAR18–22) and International Chemicals guidance was revised to roughly USD 450m adjusted EBITDA for FY‑26 (margin 8–10%) with a FY‑28 EBITDA ambition of USD 750–850m.Sasol Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Mixed fundamentals: leverage improved and the balance sheet is moderate, but profitability has been volatile (including a significant loss in 2024), margins have compressed, revenue declined in 2025, and free cash flow growth has been weak.Income Statement
Sasol's income statement shows a mixed performance. The gross profit margin has been relatively stable, but the net profit margin has been volatile, with a significant loss in 2024. Revenue growth has been inconsistent, with a decline in 2025. The EBIT and EBITDA margins have decreased over the years, indicating pressure on operational efficiency.65
Positive
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet reflects a moderate financial position. The debt-to-equity ratio has improved from 2020 to 2025, indicating better leverage management. However, the return on equity has been low, suggesting limited profitability on shareholders' investments. The equity ratio is stable, showing a balanced asset structure.70
Positive
Cash Flow
Cash flow analysis reveals challenges in free cash flow growth, with negative growth in recent years. The operating cash flow to net income ratio indicates decent cash generation relative to earnings, but the free cash flow to net income ratio suggests room for improvement in converting earnings to cash.60
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 | Jun 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 243.58B | 249.10B | 275.11B | 289.70B | 272.75B | 201.91B |
| Gross Profit | 66.82B | 105.95B | 121.71B | 122.32B | 135.43B | 104.42B |
| EBITDA | 40.71B | 35.62B | 57.88B | 64.47B | 43.29B | 43.29B |
| Net Income | 2.40B | 6.77B | -44.27B | 8.80B | 38.96B | 9.03B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 339.37B | 359.56B | 364.98B | 433.84B | 419.55B | 360.74B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 39.96B | 46.66B | 47.56B | 53.93B | 43.14B | 31.23B |
| Total Debt | 125.17B | 120.67B | 135.16B | 138.69B | 119.36B | 116.85B |
| Total Liabilities | 182.83B | 201.94B | 217.55B | 232.31B | 226.35B | 208.27B |
| Stockholders Equity | 151.15B | 152.43B | 143.00B | 196.90B | 188.62B | 146.49B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 14.69B | 12.89B | 7.31B | 18.45B | 17.16B | 17.72B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 33.48B | 38.31B | 37.38B | 49.18B | 40.30B | 34.09B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -18.81B | -25.89B | -30.66B | -28.23B | -15.08B | 25.09B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -15.92B | -16.61B | -14.60B | -12.57B | -15.00B | -58.31B |
Sasol Technical Analysis
Positive
6.52
Price Trends
7.25
Positive
6.79
Positive
6.14
Positive
Market Momentum
0.47
Negative
60.01
Neutral
71.08
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SSL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 6.52 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8.02, below the 50-day MA of 7.25, and above the 200-day MA of 6.14, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.47 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 60.01 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 71.08 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for SSL.
Sasol Risk Analysis
Sasol disclosed 41 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Sasol reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Sasol Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
68 Neutral | $8.46B | 15.45 | 8.07% | 5.33% | -3.33% | -19.59% | |
68 Neutral | $26.31B | 14.71 | 21.34% | 2.71% | -12.98% | -11.34% | |
67 Neutral | $5.69B | 76.21 | 1.55% | ― | -6.73% | ― | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
60 Neutral | $18.75B | -18.77 | -7.03% | 12.78% | -19.65% | -157.13% | |
55 Neutral | $19.84B | -32.60 | -5.24% | 1.10% | -23.92% | 90.47% | |
55 Neutral | $13.16B | -6.32 | -15.54% | 2.88% | -5.32% | -1108.29% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
SSL
Sasol
8.60
4.38
103.79%
ALB
Albemarle
168.35
95.65
131.57%
EMN
Eastman Chemical
73.45
-19.96
-21.37%
LYB
LyondellBasell
61.92
-6.62
-9.66%
PPG
PPG Industries
117.70
6.54
5.89%
WLK
Westlake Corporation
106.13
-1.94
-1.80%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.