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Surf Air Mobility, Inc. (SRFM)
NYSE:SRFM
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Surf Air Mobility, Inc.
(NYSE:SRFM)
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Rating:44Neutral
Price Target:
$1.50
▲(4.90% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/17/26
The score is held down primarily by weak financial performance (large losses, negative equity, and heavy cash burn) and bearish technical signals (below key moving averages with negative MACD). The latest earnings call provides a partial offset through improved execution, reduced net debt, and upbeat 2026 growth guidance, but continued expected EBITDA losses and certification/commercialization timing risks temper the outlook.
Positive Factors
Strategic electric-aircraft partnership & firm order
A firm 25-aircraft order, large option rights and exclusive factory-authorized MRO status create a durable supply and service advantage. This anchors future fleet electrification, potential operating-cost improvements, and early mover positioning in regional eVTOL/CTOL operations, strengthening long-term strategic optionality.
Platform software commercialization (Surf OS / BrokerOS)
Commercializing Surf OS and BrokerOS establishes an asset-light, high-margin revenue stream tied to operations tech. Palantir partnership accelerates product robustness and sales credibility, while early profitable BrokerOS receipts demonstrate scalable software monetization that can diversify revenue and improve margins over time.
Operational execution and airline ops profitability
Sustained operational improvements (completion, on-time metrics) and profitable airline operations indicate improving unit economics and service reliability. Better operations reduce variable costs, support customer retention and on-demand growth, and provide a firmer base for scaling higher-margin platform and electrified services.
Negative Factors
Stressed balance sheet and negative equity
Persistent negative shareholders' equity and material debt constrain financial flexibility, increase refinancing and dilution risk, and limit the company’s ability to invest opportunistically. Capital-structure stress raises the cost of funding and constrains longer-term program execution if markets tighten.
Heavy, persistent cash burn
Large negative operating and free cash flows indicate the business cannot self-fund ongoing investments in electrification, Surf OS rollout and network growth. Continued external capital will likely be required, raising dilution risk and making multi-year investments contingent on capital access.
Revenue contraction and persistent consolidated EBITDA losses
A recent revenue decline plus an ongoing consolidated adjusted EBITDA loss show the business still lacks durable consolidated profitability. Route exits improved margins but reduced scale; Surf OS monetization is delayed to H2 2026, limiting near-term offsets and keeping execution and cash-pressure risks elevated.
Surf Air Mobility, Inc. (SRFM) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$111.64M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)2.10M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)3.46
Revenue Growth-8.51%
EPS Growth82.15%
CountryUS
Employees556
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryAirlines, Airports & Air Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.08
Shares Outstanding76,993,256
10 Day Avg. Volume2,664,013
30 Day Avg. Volume2,100,793
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.04
Price to Book (P/B)-0.74
Price to Sales (P/S)0.38
P/FCF Ratio-0.58
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.09
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.14
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit29.10
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-1.80
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$7.13Price Target Upside398.60% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)-1.15
Revenue Forecast (FY)$115.26M
Surf Air Mobility, Inc. Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionSurf Air Mobility Inc. operates as an electric aviation and air travel company in the United States. It offers an air mobility platform with scheduled routes and on demand charter flights operated by third parties; and air cargo services. The company is headquartered in Hawthorne, California.
How the Company Makes MoneySurf Air Mobility’s revenue model is primarily based on providing air transportation services and related aviation services. Key revenue streams include: (1) passenger flight revenue generated from selling seats and/or memberships for scheduled or on-demand regional air travel (where applicable to its operating model); (2) revenue from aviation operations conducted through its operating platform, which may include charter or scheduled service offerings; and (3) any revenue associated with aviation-related services tied to its network and operational capabilities. The company also pursues electrification and hybrid-electric powertrain initiatives for regional aircraft; however, specific, quantified commercialization pathways (e.g., product sales, licensing, or recurring service revenue from electrification programs) are not available in this response and are therefore null. Significant partnerships or factors contributing to earnings beyond its core flight operations and aviation services: null.
Surf Air Mobility, Inc. Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 12, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 19, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a constructive strategic pivot and strong operational progress: airline operations achieved profitability, key operational metrics materially improved, net debt declined substantially, Surf OS and BrokerOS show early commercial traction, and a significant partnership and aircraft order with Beta Technologies positions the company as an early mover in electric aircraft operations and MRO services. These positive developments are balanced by near-term revenue declines due to exit of unprofitable routes, a consolidated adjusted EBITDA loss that is expected to continue in 2026 as the company invests in Surf OS and Hawaii, and dependency on aircraft certification timelines. Overall, the tone is optimistic and growth-oriented, with clear execution milestones and quantified plans, but execution and timing risks (certification, commercialization pacing, and continued investment needs) remain.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Consistent Guidance Execution
Met or exceeded revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance for eight consecutive quarters, demonstrating sustained execution against the transformation plan.
Raised Capital and Improved Leverage
Raised over $100 million in equity in 2025 and reduced net debt by 47% (from $139M at 12/31/2024 to $74M at 12/31/2025), aided by conversion of $48M convertible notes.
Airline Operations Profitability and Operational Improvements
Achieved full-year profitability in airline operations (positive adjusted EBITDA). Controllable completion factor improved to 98% in 2025 (from 89% in 2024); Q4 controllable completion 98% vs 96% in Q3 2025. On-time departures improved to 72% from 62% (2024); on-time arrivals improved to 81% from 74% (2024).
On-Demand Charter Momentum
On-demand charter revenue showed meaningful growth: Q4 on-demand revenue increased 36% year-over-year and 8% sequentially. Full-year on-demand revenue increased 3% year-over-year. Improvements driven by mix shift to larger aircraft, international trips, better sourcing, and BrokerOS productivity.
Surf OS Progress and Commercialization Path
Launched multiple Surf OS tools (crew/aircraft scheduling, maintenance integration, pilot mobile apps, CRM) with Palantir powering the core. Executed a five-year exclusive teaming agreement with Palantir for Part 135 solutions. BrokerOS is live and already generating profitable revenue; commercial rollout of Surf OS targeted for 2026 with revenue weighted to H2 2026.
Strategic Product Launches
Launched 'Powered by SURF On Demand' (BrokerOS distribution to independent brokers) and 'SURF On Demand Cargo' in Q4; both began generating profitable revenue during 2025.
Beta Technologies Strategic Partnership and Aircraft Order
Secured strategic partnership with Beta Technologies, placed a firm order for 25 Beta electric aircraft with an option for 75 more; designated planned MRO facility as exclusive factory-authorized service center in Hawaii; selected as launch operator and co-marketing partner. Management expects demo cargo CTOL activity in 2026 and earlier certification potential via FAA EIPP selection.
Raised 2026 Revenue Guidance
Guided 2026 full-year revenue to $128M–$138M, representing 20%–30% year-over-year growth versus 2025 revenue of $106.6M; growth weighted to back half of the year driven by on-demand charter and partial-year Surf OS revenue.
Negative Updates
Overall Revenue Decline in 2025
Full-year 2025 revenue of $106.6M declined 11% versus 2024. Declines driven by exits of unprofitable scheduled-service routes: scheduled service revenue down 15% for the full year and down 19% in Q4 year-over-year.
Company-Level Adjusted EBITDA Loss Persists
Full-year 2025 adjusted EBITDA loss was $41.7M (a 5% improvement from $44.1M in 2024) and Q4 adjusted EBITDA loss was just under $8M (within guidance). Management expects adjusted EBITDA loss of $40M–$50M for 2026, reflecting continued investment in Surf OS and strategic initiatives.
Near-Term Profitability and Cash Visibility Uncertain
Although airline ops are profitable, the consolidated business remains loss-making. CFO did not provide explicit end-2026 cash/debt balances and noted continued opportunistic balance-sheet management; investments (e.g., Hawaii, Surf OS) will pressure near-term results.
Dependency on Certification and Timing of Electric Aircraft
Commercial deployment of Beta electric aircraft depends on FAA certification timelines (EIPP program participation helps but is not a guarantee). Management expects demo cargo flights in 2026 but full passenger service timing remains subject to certification risk.
Surf OS Revenue Delayed to Back Half of 2026
Commercial Surf OS monetization is expected in 2026 but revenue is concentrated in H2 2026, limiting near-term contribution to 1Q/first-half results.
Scheduled-Service Volume Reduction from Route Exits
Exit of unprofitable routes materially reduced scheduled service revenue (16% sequential decline Q4 vs Q3) even as it improved margins and operational metrics, indicating trade-offs between scale and profitability.
Mixed Messaging on Quarter-over-Quarter Adjusted EBITDA Commentary
Management commentary included inconsistencies regarding Q4 adjusted EBITDA comparisons (references to both improvement and a $1.1M increase due to corporate-level costs), indicating some near-term variability driven by corporate cost mix.
Operating Metrics Improved but Still Room to Improve
On-time departures at 72% and arrivals at 81% (improved vs 2024) remain below best-in-class levels, leaving additional operational upside required to sustain growth and customer experience gains.
Company Guidance
Surf Air Mobility guided full-year 2026 revenue of $128–$138 million (up 20%–30% YoY versus 2025 revenue of $106.6M) and an adjusted EBITDA loss of $40–$50 million, noting revenue growth will be back‑half weighted and that FY2026 guidance excludes early electric‑aircraft contributions; Q1 2026 guidance is revenue of $24–$26 million and adjusted EBITDA loss of $13.5–$15.5 million (Q1 guidance excludes Surf OS revenue). Management reiterated 2025 results of $106.6M revenue, a full‑year airline operations positive adjusted EBITDA, a 2025 adjusted EBITDA loss of $41.7M (versus $44.1M in 2024), Q4 revenue of $26.4M (within guidance $25.5–$27.5M) and a Q4 adjusted EBITDA loss just under $8M (within guidance $8.0–$6.5M); operational metrics improved to a controllable completion factor of 98% (Q4 98% vs Q3 96% and Q4 2024 89%), on‑time departures 72% (from 62%) and on‑time arrivals 81% (from 74%). They also noted balance‑sheet progress (net debt down 47% to $74M from $139M at 12/31/2024 after raising over $100M equity and $48M convertible note conversion), Surf OS commercial rollout on track for 2026 (with meaningful revenue in H2), and strategic electrification commitments including a firm order for 25 Beta aircraft (+75 options) that management expects could eventually deliver ~30% operating‑cost improvement.Surf Air Mobility, Inc. Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Financials remain highly pressured: thin gross margin and very large net losses, negative stockholders’ equity, and heavy ongoing operating/free cash flow burn. While revenue scaled over prior years, 2025 momentum weakened and the capital structure/financing risk remains a key constraint.Income Statement
Revenue scaled rapidly from 2020–2024, but the trajectory weakened in 2025 (annual revenue down ~1.5%). Profitability remains very challenged: 2025 gross margin is thin (~3.9%) and net losses are larger again (net margin roughly -104%), indicating costs are still overwhelming the business despite prior improvement from 2023’s extremely weak margins. Overall, the income statement shows growth potential but no durable earnings power yet.18
Very Negative
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet is stressed by consistently negative stockholders’ equity (still negative in 2025), which reduces financial flexibility and raises refinancing/dilution risk. Total debt is sizable (~$83.5M in 2025) relative to the company’s scale, and the negative equity makes leverage signals structurally concerning even when debt levels move. Total assets (~$131.7M in 2025) provide some base, but the capital structure remains a key weakness.12
Very Negative
Cash Flow
Cash burn remains heavy and persistent: 2025 operating cash flow is about -$64.2M and free cash flow about -$70.1M, with free cash flow deteriorating versus 2024. A modest positive is that cash burn is not materially worse than 2023 levels, but the company is still far from self-funding operations and will likely require continued external capital if trends don’t improve.16
Very Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 106.56M | 119.42M | 60.51M | 20.27M | 11.80M |
| Gross Profit | 4.18M | 9.49M | -5.17M | -5.58M | -3.75M |
| EBITDA | -67.58M | -58.24M | -247.27M | -72.74M | -32.59M |
| Net Income | -110.56M | -74.91M | -250.70M | -74.36M | -35.78M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 131.68M | 124.06M | 110.99M | 13.70M | 7.56M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 12.67M | 21.11M | 1.72M | 6.00K | 719.00K |
| Total Debt | 83.47M | 92.49M | 47.45M | 30.25M | 23.47M |
| Total Liabilities | 186.54M | 244.06M | 188.47M | 235.79M | 180.58M |
| Stockholders Equity | -54.86M | -120.00M | -77.48M | -222.09M | -173.03M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -70.10M | -68.43M | -72.15M | -28.14M | -24.19M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -64.16M | -54.32M | -64.37M | -28.04M | -23.93M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -5.71M | -3.61M | -7.10M | -298.00K | -261.00K |
| Financing Cash Flow | 70.96M | 77.17M | 72.99M | 27.67M | 18.25M |
Surf Air Mobility, Inc. Technical Analysis
Negative
1.43
Price Trends
2.22
Negative
2.46
Negative
3.35
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.13
Positive
27.28
Positive
11.28
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SRFM, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1.43 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.90, below the 50-day MA of 2.22, and below the 200-day MA of 3.35, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.13 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 27.28 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 11.28 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SRFM.
Surf Air Mobility, Inc. Risk Analysis
Surf Air Mobility, Inc. disclosed 77 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Surf Air Mobility, Inc. reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Surf Air Mobility, Inc. Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
53 Neutral | $878.78M | 14.47 | 8.62% | ― | 4.27% | 28.47% | |
48 Neutral | $1.48B | -34.43 | -4.22% | ― | 3.29% | -983.31% | |
47 Neutral | $250.03M | -6.36 | 6.23% | ― | ― | ― | |
45 Neutral | $764.60M | -7.87 | -27.87% | ― | 1.77% | -1964.48% | |
44 Neutral | $111.64M | -0.37 | 110.96% | ― | -8.51% | 82.15% |
* Industrials Sector Average
SRFM
Surf Air Mobility, Inc.
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-2.39
-62.24%
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80.00
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SNCY
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27.54%
ULCC
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FLYX
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.