Sun Country Airlines Holdings (SNCY) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $854.73M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.15M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 14.5
• Beta (1Y): 1.21
• Revenue Growth: 4.27%
• EPS Growth: 28.47%
• Country: US
• Employees: 3,124
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Airlines, Airports & Air Services
• EPS (TTM): 0.17
• Shares Outstanding: 53,453,880
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,283,858
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,149,390
• PEG Ratio: -14.47
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.22
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.68
• P/FCF Ratio: 9.10
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.52
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.15
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 1.72
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 7.09
• 1Y Price Target: $19.50
• Price Target Upside: 21.95% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.6
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $1.21B

• Rating: 53 Neutral
• Price Target: $16.00 ▲(0.06% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/16/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/16/26

The score is held back primarily by weak and volatile cash flow trends (including a sharp 2025 step-down) and bearish technical momentum (below key moving averages with negative MACD). Offsetting factors include a reasonable P/E and positive M&A-related corporate events, including key antitrust clearance.

Positive Factors

Top-line momentum

Sun Country’s multi-year revenue expansion, including a pronounced uptick in 2025, indicates durable demand capture and network growth. Persistent top-line strength supports scale economies, route optimization and ancillary revenue development, underpinning long-term commercial viability despite margin pressure.

Improving leverage

Leverage reduction to about 0.95 signals improving balance-sheet discipline and greater financial flexibility versus earlier periods. A stronger equity base reduces refinancing strain, enhances creditor confidence, and better positions the company to execute strategic initiatives or withstand cyclical downturns over the medium term.

Acquisition cleared key antitrust step

Early termination of the HSR waiting period materially advances the Allegiant acquisition, a structural transaction that would combine networks, add scale, and target $140m in annual synergies by year three. Successful close would reshape competitive positioning and long-term operational stability.

Negative Factors

Cash-flow volatility

Sharp 2025 deterioration and a history of multi-year swings in operating and free cash flow point to inconsistent cash generation. This undermines capacity to self-fund fleet investment, pay down debt, or absorb shocks, increasing execution risk and reliance on external financing over the medium term.

Compressed profitability

Step-down in operating and net margins from prior peaks means less buffer against cost inflation or demand shocks. Modest 2025 margins limit reinvestment and free-cash-flow resilience, making earnings more susceptible to fuel, labor, or cyclical revenue swings in the coming quarters.

Meaningful remaining debt

Although leverage improved, overall debt remains sizable relative to equity, constraining liquidity and strategic flexibility. In a cyclical industry, persistent debt levels raise refinancing and interest-rate exposure and could limit the company’s ability to invest or absorb downside without dilutive or costly financing.

Sun Country Airlines Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Sun Country Airlines Holdings, Inc., an air carrier company, provides scheduled passenger, air cargo, charter air transportation, and related services in the United States, Latin America, and internationally. As of December 31, 2021, the company operated a fleet of 48 aircraft, including 36 passenger and 12 cargo aircraft. Sun Country Airlines Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1983 and is headquartered in Minneapolis, Minnesota.

How the Company Makes Money

Sun Country Airlines Holdings makes money primarily by selling air transportation and related services across multiple lines of business. (1) Scheduled passenger revenue: The core model is selling tickets for scheduled flights, with pricing and load factors driving passenger fare revenue. The company also earns ancillary revenue associated with passenger travel (e.g., optional fees tied to the travel experience); specific fee categories and amounts are null. (2) Charter revenue: The company operates charter flights for third parties, generating revenue under charter arrangements where a customer contracts for aircraft capacity or specific flight services. (3) Cargo revenue: The company provides air cargo services; details on specific cargo customers, contract structures, or concentration are null. Overall earnings are influenced by factors typical to airlines—such as passenger demand, capacity utilization, route/network decisions, and operating costs (notably fuel and labor)—but company-specific quantitative sensitivities are null.

Sun Country Airlines Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Income statement trends are fair (strong revenue growth but compressed profitability), the balance sheet is improving but still meaningfully leveraged, and cash flow is a major weak spot due to sharp 2025 operating/free cash flow deterioration and multi-year volatility.

Income Statement

Revenue expanded strongly from 2020–2025, including a very large jump in 2025 versus 2024 (per the provided growth rate). Profitability, however, has become less consistent: net margin and operating margins stepped down from 2021 highs, and 2025 profitability remained positive but modest (net margin ~4.7%, EBITDA margin ~17.9%). Overall, the business shows solid top-line momentum, but margin durability looks pressured versus earlier years.

Balance Sheet

Leverage has improved over time, with debt-to-equity falling to ~0.95 in 2025 from higher levels earlier in the period, supported by a larger equity base. That said, debt remains meaningful at roughly similar magnitude to equity, leaving less flexibility in a cyclical airline environment. Returns on equity are positive but have trended down from peak levels (about 8.4% in 2025 versus stronger results in 2021–2023).

Cash Flow

Cash generation weakened sharply in 2025: operating cash flow and free cash flow are far below prior years, and free cash flow growth is deeply negative versus 2024. While recent history (2024) showed strong positive free cash flow, the multi-year profile includes volatility with negative free cash flow in 2022–2023. Free cash flow relative to net income in 2025 is positive, but the absolute cash flow level and year-to-year swing raise execution and reinvestment risk.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.13B	1.08B	1.05B	894.44M	623.01M
Gross Profit	754.17M	748.96M	269.17M	177.74M	133.17M
EBITDA	201.34M	210.58M	226.24M	122.64M	200.21M
Net Income	52.81M	52.90M	72.18M	17.68M	81.25M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.68B	1.63B	1.62B	1.52B	1.38B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	234.31M	187.27M	187.41M	271.02M	315.62M
Total Debt	591.80M	619.03M	697.78M	629.66M	545.62M
Total Liabilities	1.06B	1.06B	1.11B	1.03B	889.83M
Stockholders Equity	625.20M	570.37M	514.40M	492.71M	490.59M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	84.00M	117.53M	-44.04M	-60.48M	35.70M
Operating Cash Flow	157.10M	164.86M	174.12M	127.44M	152.00M
Investing Cash Flow	-39.01M	8.40M	-171.23M	-349.33M	-117.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-52.50M	-136.47M	-42.14M	7.03M	212.40M

Sun Country Airlines Holdings Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 15.99
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SNCY, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 15.99 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 17.93, below the 50-day MA of 18.21, and above the 200-day MA of 13.89, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.85 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 36.92 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 27.86 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SNCY.

Sun Country Airlines Holdings Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
LUV	54 Neutral	$19.75B	50.61	5.33%	1.73%	0.65%	―
SNCY	53 Neutral	$854.73M	14.47	8.62%	―	4.27%	28.47%
ALGT	48 Neutral	$1.42B	-34.43	-4.22%	―	3.29%	-983.31%
JBLU	46 Neutral	$1.50B	-2.79	-26.05%	―	-2.49%	47.88%
VLRS	45 Neutral	$838.12M	-9.81	-20.74%	―	-6.55%	-133.03%
ULCC	45 Neutral	$711.79M	-7.87	-27.87%	―	1.77%	-1964.48%

Sun Country Airlines Holdings Corporate Events

Sun Country-Allegiant Merger Gains Key Antitrust Clearance

On January 11, 2026, Sun Country Airlines agreed to be acquired by Allegiant Travel Company through a two-step merger structure that will ultimately make Sun Country a wholly owned subsidiary of Allegiant. On March 16, 2026, the companies announced that U.S. antitrust authorities granted early termination of the Hart-Scott-Rodino waiting period for the deal.

The clearance from the Department of Justice marked a key regulatory milestone, moving the leisure-focused airline combination closer to completion, with closing now expected in the second or third quarter of 2026. The transaction still requires U.S. Department of Transportation approvals and shareholder votes at both companies, and management touts the deal as creating a stronger, broader network and greater long-term value for stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (SNCY) stock is a Hold with a $17.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Sun Country Airlines Holdings stock, see the SNCY Stock Forecast page.

Sun Country to be acquired by Allegiant Travel

On January 11, 2026, Sun Country Airlines Holdings entered into a definitive cash-and-stock merger agreement to be acquired by Allegiant Travel Company, in a transaction valuing Sun Country at about $1.5 billion, including net debt, and implying $18.89 per share—a roughly 19% premium to its January 9 closing price—under which Sun Country shareholders will receive $4.10 in cash and 0.1557 Allegiant shares for each Sun Country share and will hold approximately 33% of the combined company. The deal, structured as a two-step merger that will ultimately make Sun Country a wholly owned Allegiant subsidiary and lead to the delisting of Sun Country’s Nasdaq-traded stock, includes conversion of Sun Country equity awards into Allegiant instruments, board expansion to add three Sun Country-designated directors including CEO Jude Bricker, and customary regulatory, shareholder and antitrust closing conditions, with an outside date of January 11, 2027 and a package of reverse and standard break fees and expense reimbursements. Strategically, Allegiant and Sun Country aim to create a leading U.S. leisure airline with complementary route networks, an enlarged fleet of 195 aircraft and more than 650 routes serving 22 million annual passengers, enhanced international reach across Mexico, Central America, Canada and the Caribbean, strengthened charter and cargo operations to smooth seasonality, and a combined loyalty base exceeding 23 million members, while management highlights expected $140 million in annual synergies by year three, EPS accretion in the first year post-closing and greater career opportunities and operational stability for employees under existing labor agreements.

The most recent analyst rating on (SNCY) stock is a Buy with a $18.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Sun Country Airlines Holdings stock, see the SNCY Stock Forecast page.

Sun Country Airlines Elevates Commercial and Operations Leadership

Effective January 6, 2026, Sun Country Airlines appointed Colton Snow, previously Senior Vice President and Chief Marketing Officer, as Senior Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer, formalizing the leadership of a long-tenured executive who has overseen key functions including ancillary revenue, marketing, loyalty, communications, digital experience, customer service, network planning, revenue management, and charters. On the same date, the board named Stephen Coley, formerly Senior Vice President and Head of Operations, as Senior Vice President and Chief Operating Officer, elevating an operations leader with more than 22 years of industry experience across technical operations, maintenance, safety, and security; together, these internal promotions consolidate commercial and operational leadership under experienced executives without related-party concerns, signaling a continued focus on disciplined growth and operational reliability for stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (SNCY) stock is a Buy with a $20.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Sun Country Airlines Holdings stock, see the SNCY Stock Forecast page.