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Southwest Airlines (LUV)
NYSE:LUV

Southwest Airlines (LUV) AI Stock Analysis

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LUSouthwest Airlines
(NYSE:LUV)
63Neutral
Southwest Airlines' overall score reflects strong revenue growth and operational improvements, tempered by high P/E valuation and cash flow challenges. Technical indicators show bearish momentum, partially offset by strategic initiatives and positive earnings call sentiment. The recent workforce reduction and executive changes could drive long-term efficiency gains.
Positive Factors
Business Transformation
LUV has embarked on a multi-quarter, multi-initiative journey to transform its business model and restore earnings power.
Earnings
LUV's 4Q was a big beat and FY guidance should actually end up moving consensus a touch higher.
Negative Factors
Cost Pressures
Inflationary cost pressures are going to be difficult to overcome without the benefit of more premium or international offerings.
Operational Challenges
Analyst continues to expect multiple compression.
Regulatory Issues
The US DOT is bringing a lawsuit against LUV.

Southwest Airlines (LUV) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Southwest Airlines Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionSouthwest Airlines Co. (LUV) is a major American airline headquartered in Dallas, Texas. It operates within the transportation sector, specifically focusing on the air travel industry. The company is renowned for its no-frills, low-cost business model, providing point-to-point service across a network of destinations in the United States and select international locations. Southwest Airlines emphasizes customer service, operational efficiency, and a strong company culture.
How the Company Makes MoneySouthwest Airlines makes money primarily through the sale of passenger tickets for air travel, which constitutes the majority of its revenue. The company employs a low-cost carrier model, focusing on high-frequency, short-haul routes to maximize aircraft utilization and minimize costs. Ancillary services such as fees for additional services, including early check-in, upgraded boarding, and other in-flight offerings, also contribute to its revenue streams. Southwest's rapid turnaround times and focus on operational efficiency help keep costs low and maintain profitability. The company also benefits from strategic partnerships with other travel-related businesses, loyalty programs, and co-branded credit cards, which provide additional revenue through commissions and fees.

Southwest Airlines Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Southwest Airlines shows strong revenue growth and improved cost management, enhancing profitability and operational efficiency. The balance sheet reflects a healthier leverage position with reduced debt levels. However, cash flow management needs improvement, as operating cash flow ratios declined and free cash flow remains negative.
Income Statement
75
Positive
Southwest Airlines shows positive momentum in revenue with an 5.34% growth in TTM compared to 2023. Gross Profit Margin improved to 24.40% from 16.19% last year, indicating better cost management. While the Net Profit Margin slightly decreased to 1.69% from 1.78%, the company still demonstrates resilience. EBIT and EBITDA margins also improved, reflecting operational efficiency; EBIT Margin rose to 1.47% from 0.86% in 2023.
Balance Sheet
68
Positive
The company's Debt-to-Equity Ratio improved to 0.29 from 0.88, showcasing reduced leverage and potential financial stability. The Equity Ratio stands at 47.36%, indicating a solid equity position. Return on Equity, however, slightly underperformed at 4.48% compared to 4.42% in 2023, suggesting room for profitability enhancement.
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio declined significantly to 0.99 from 6.80, highlighting potential cash flow challenges. Free Cash Flow remains negative at -$1.62B, though the Free Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is -3.49. The Free Cash Flow Growth Rate is not applicable due to negative figures.
Breakdown
Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
27.48B26.09B23.81B15.79B9.05B
Gross Profit
4.46B4.22B4.75B4.12B-1.89B
EBIT
321.00M224.00M1.02B1.72B-3.82B
EBITDA
2.50B2.39B2.38B3.03B-2.70B
Net Income Common Stockholders
465.00M465.00M539.00M977.00M-3.07B
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
8.72B11.47B12.29B15.50B13.33B
Total Assets
33.75B36.49B35.37B36.32B34.59B
Total Debt
8.06B9.23B9.43B12.28B12.20B
Net Debt
549.00M-59.00M-61.00M-199.00M1.14B
Total Liabilities
23.40B25.97B24.68B25.91B25.71B
Stockholders Equity
10.35B10.52B10.69B10.41B8.88B
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
-1.62B-389.00M-156.00M1.81B-1.64B
Operating Cash Flow
462.00M3.16B3.79B2.32B-1.13B
Investing Cash Flow
-261.00M-2.93B-3.75B-1.26B-16.00M
Financing Cash Flow
-1.98B-436.00M-3.03B359.00M9.66B

Southwest Airlines Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price29.20
Price Trends
50DMA
31.59
Negative
100DMA
31.66
Negative
200DMA
29.66
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.46
Positive
RSI
37.54
Neutral
STOCH
24.59
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For LUV, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 29.2 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 30.16, below the 50-day MA of 31.59, and below the 200-day MA of 29.66, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.46 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 37.54 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 24.59 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for LUV.

Southwest Airlines Risk Analysis

Southwest Airlines disclosed 24 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Southwest Airlines reported the most risks in the “Legal & Regulatory” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Southwest Airlines Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
UAUAL
80
Outperform
$27.13B8.7928.63%6.23%20.08%
DADAL
77
Outperform
$34.42B9.9926.19%1.03%6.19%-25.26%
ALALK
77
Outperform
$7.46B19.869.31%12.56%69.33%
LULUV
63
Neutral
$17.31B38.714.50%2.46%5.34%-6.20%
62
Neutral
$8.11B13.341.17%3.02%4.16%-15.14%
AAAAL
58
Neutral
$8.57B11.76-21.27%2.70%2.20%
47
Neutral
$2.16B-26.60%-3.50%-148.99%
* Industrials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
LUV
Southwest Airlines
29.20
-3.99
-12.02%
ALK
Alaska Air
60.64
23.28
62.31%
DAL
Delta Air Lines
53.28
11.06
26.20%
JBLU
JetBlue Airways
6.11
-0.93
-13.21%
UAL
United Airlines Holdings
82.88
39.99
93.24%
AAL
American Airlines
13.03
-1.62
-11.06%

Southwest Airlines Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date: Jan 30, 2025 | % Change Since: -7.74% | Next Earnings Date: Apr 24, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflects a positive sentiment overall, with strong revenue performance, strategic partnerships, and operational improvements outweighing concerns about cost inflation and fleet delivery uncertainties.
Highlights
Industry-Leading Completion Factor
Southwest Airlines finished the year with an industry-leading completion factor, indicating significant improvements in operational performance and fewer flight cancellations.
Strong Year-Over-Year Unit Revenue Improvement
For the fourth quarter, unit revenues increased by 8% year-over-year, exceeding the prior guidance range. This improvement was driven by strong demand and effective revenue management initiatives.
Strategic Partnerships and Expansion
Southwest signed its first commercial agreement with Icelandair, marking a significant milestone in expanding travel options for customers. This partnership will enhance connectivity across the Atlantic.
Launch of New Products and Initiatives
The company is on track to launch assigned and premium seating products, Getaways by Southwest, and has secured a partnership with MGM Resorts International in Las Vegas.
Enhanced Financial Performance and Strategic Execution
Southwest Airlines exceeded expectations for fourth-quarter performance, with improved year-over-year margins and a comprehensive plan for cost reductions and strategic growth.
Lowlights
Above Normal Unit Cost Inflation
Southwest experienced higher-than-normal unit cost inflation due to wage increases, airport costs, and healthcare expenses. These factors contributed to an 11.1% year-over-year increase in CASM-X for the fourth quarter.
Conservative Fleet Delivery Assumptions
Boeing's production challenges have led Southwest to plan conservatively with 38 aircraft deliveries in 2025, posing potential risks to operational plans and fleet modernization.
Challenges in Cost Management
Southwest is urgently working towards implementing a $500 million cost reduction plan to mitigate inflationary pressures. The company acknowledges the need for aggressive actions to improve cost efficiency.
Company Guidance
During Southwest Airlines' Fourth Quarter 2024 Conference Call, the company provided detailed guidance and updates on various key metrics. The airline reported an 8% year-over-year increase in unit revenue for the fourth quarter, exceeding their prior guidance range of 5.5% to 7%. They highlighted a strong nominal RASM, which was 7% higher sequentially compared to the third quarter, surpassing historical trends by 5 points. Southwest also achieved an industry-leading completion factor with less than 1% flight cancellations, and was recognized by The Wall Street Journal for its operational performance. Looking ahead, the company plans for a modest capacity growth of 1% to 2% in 2025, which will be funded by efficiency initiatives such as turn time reductions and redeye flights. They aim to deliver $1.5 billion in incremental EBIT by 2025, supported by their Southwest Even Better plan, which includes a $500 million cost-saving initiative. The airline also plans to execute fleet monetization strategies and maintain a low-single-digit CASM-X growth rate by the end of 2025. Additionally, Southwest intends to repurchase $2.25 billion of stock this year, representing approximately 12% of their market cap.

Southwest Airlines Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Southwest Airlines Amends Agreement with Elliott Investment
Neutral
Feb 19, 2025

On February 19, 2025, Southwest Airlines amended its Cooperation Agreement with Elliott Investment Management, increasing Elliott’s potential economic exposure in the airline’s stock from 14.9% to 19.9%. The agreement also maintains restrictions on Elliott’s beneficial ownership until April 2026. Additionally, Ryan Green, the company’s Executive Vice President & Chief Transformation Officer, announced his resignation effective April 1, 2025, which marks a significant leadership change for Southwest Airlines.

Business Operations and Strategy
Southwest Airlines Announces Major Workforce Reduction
Negative
Feb 18, 2025

On February 17, 2025, Southwest Airlines Co. announced a significant reduction in its corporate workforce, eliminating approximately 1,750 roles, or 15% of its corporate positions, as part of a transformational plan to enhance efficiency and agility. This unprecedented decision, aimed at reducing operating costs, is expected to generate substantial savings for the company, despite an initial one-time charge for severance and benefits, with expected savings of $210 million in 2025 and $300 million in 2026.

Executive/Board Changes
Southwest Airlines Appoints Tom Doxey as CFO
Positive
Feb 10, 2025

On February 10, 2025, Southwest Airlines announced the appointment of Tom Doxey as Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer, effective March 10, 2025. Doxey, with a robust background in aviation finance and strategic transformation, previously led Breeze Airways to profitability and held significant roles at United Airlines. His expertise is anticipated to strengthen Southwest’s financial and operational leadership.

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Southwest Airlines Announces Board Member Departures
Neutral
Feb 7, 2025

On February 4, 2025, Southwest Airlines announced that Eduardo F. Conrado and Elaine Mendoza will not seek re-election to the Board of Directors and will retire following the 2025 Annual Meeting. Their departure is aligned with a Cooperation Agreement involving Elliott Investment Management and related entities, and is not due to any disagreements with the company’s operations or policies.

Stock BuybackBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Southwest Airlines Reports Record 2024 Financial Results
Positive
Jan 30, 2025

On January 30, 2025, Southwest Airlines reported record financial results for the fourth quarter and full year 2024, with net income of $261 million and $465 million, respectively. The company achieved record operating revenues, driven by strong execution of tactical initiatives and robust demand. Additionally, Southwest Airlines announced a $750 million accelerated share repurchase program, while expressing optimism about its ongoing ‘Southwest. Even Better.’ transformational plan, including a newly amended co-brand agreement with Chase. The company aims to enhance shareholder returns and modernize customer experience, supported by a positive industry backdrop and strategic cost reduction targets.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Southwest Airlines Alters Convertible Notes Settlement Approach
Neutral
Jan 27, 2025

Southwest Airlines Co. announced a change in the settlement method for its 1.250% convertible senior notes due 2025, opting to settle in cash. This decision, communicated to securityholders and the trustee, may impact the company’s financial operations and stakeholder relations as it approaches the maturity of these notes.

Executive/Board Changes
Southwest Airlines Announces Executive Leadership Changes
Neutral
Jan 10, 2025

Southwest Airlines announced the retirement of two of its long-serving executives, Tammy Romo, Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer, and Linda Rutherford, Chief Administration Officer, effective April 1, 2025. Their departures mark a significant transition for the company as it begins the search for Romo’s replacement, highlighting their substantial contributions to the company’s achievements and the shaping of its future.

Business Operations and Strategy
Southwest Airlines Completes Sale-Leaseback for Fleet Monetization
Positive
Jan 7, 2025

Southwest Airlines Co. has completed a sale-leaseback transaction with BBAM for 35 of its Boeing 737-800 aircraft, resulting in gross proceeds of $871 million and expected gains of $92 million for Q4 2024. This transaction is part of Southwest’s fleet monetization strategy aimed at reducing operational costs and supporting capital allocation for future fleet updates and shareholder returns.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.