Allegiant Travel Company (ALGT) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.52B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 500.88K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.52
• Revenue Growth: 3.29%
• EPS Growth: -983.31%
• Country: US
• Employees: 6,057
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Airlines, Airports & Air Services
• EPS (TTM): 2.72
• Shares Outstanding: 18,452,293
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 555,222
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 500,876
• PEG Ratio: 0.42
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.46
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.59
• P/FCF Ratio: 20.49
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.11
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.23
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 4.18
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 9.84
• 1Y Price Target: $106.56
• Price Target Upside: 29.41% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 9
• EPS Forecast (FY): 7.66
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $2.74B

• Rating: 48 Neutral
• Price Target: $79.00 ▼(-4.06% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/18/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/18/26

The score is held down primarily by inconsistent profitability and a leveraged balance sheet, alongside bearish technical momentum. Positive offsets include constructive guidance and operational/cost improvements from the earnings call, plus favorable corporate developments (raised Q1 outlook and antitrust progress on the Sun Country deal), but these are not yet enough to outweigh the financial and trend risks.

Positive Factors

Ancillary-driven revenue model

Allegiant’s business model generates a large share of revenue from ancillaries and packaged travel, which are higher-margin and recurring per-passenger streams. This diversification reduces reliance on base fares, supports cash generation and resilience across leisure cycles for 2–6+ months.

Fleet modernization (737 MAX fuel edge)

Adoption of 737 MAX aircraft materially improves unit economics via lower fuel burn and better per-hour performance. Structural fuel and cost advantages from modern fleet reduce CASM ex-fuel and support durable margin improvement as MAX penetration rises over multiple quarters.

Positive operating cash flow and liquidity

Consistent positive operating cash flow (2025: $389.8M) and available liquidity (~$1.1B reported) provide a durable buffer versus cyclical revenues. Reliable cash generation helps fund operations, aircraft investment and debt paydowns, increasing financial flexibility over the medium term.

Negative Factors

Elevated leverage and weak equity returns

Persistently high leverage against a cyclical leisure airline exposes the company to demand shocks and interest-cost variability. Negative ROE and material debt levels limit capital allocation flexibility, raise refinancing risk and increase sensitivity to revenue/margin swings over the coming quarters.

Volatile profitability and margin inconsistency

Allegiant’s earnings have swung materially year-to-year with uneven operating results and a 2025 net loss, reflecting sensitivity to TRASM and seasonal demand. This inconsistent earnings track record undermines predictability of cash returns and complicates multi‑quarter planning and investor confidence.

Acquisition, capex and financing strain

Pursuing the Sun Country acquisition plus sizeable 2026 aircraft and maintenance capex (~$750M) creates sustained financing and execution demands. Integration risk, regulatory steps and large cash commitments can strain liquidity and distract management, raising structural execution and funding risk over multiple quarters.

Allegiant Travel Company Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Allegiant Travel Company, a leisure travel company, provides travel services and products to residents of under-served cities in the United States. The company offers scheduled air transportation on limited-frequency, nonstop flights between under-served cities and leisure destinations. As of February 14, 2022, it operated a fleet of 110 Airbus A320 series aircraft. The company also provides air-related services and products in conjunction with air transportation, including baggage fees, advance seat assignments, travel protection products, priority boarding, a customer convenience fee, food and beverage purchases on board, and other air-related services, as well as use of its call center for purchases. In addition, it offers third party travel products, such as hotel rooms and ground transportation, such as rental cars and hotel shuttle products; and air transportation services through fixed fee agreements and charter service on a year-round and ad-hoc basis. Further, the company operates a golf course. Allegiant Travel Company was founded in 1997 and is based in Las Vegas, Nevada.

How the Company Makes Money

Allegiant primarily makes money through (1) base airfares and (2) ancillary revenue tied to its passenger airline operations. Base airfare revenue comes from selling seats on scheduled flights, generally focused on price-sensitive leisure travelers and point-to-point routes. A significant portion of Allegiant’s revenue is generated from ancillary products and fees sold in connection with travel, which may include items such as baggage fees, seat selection and upgrades, priority boarding, change/cancellation-related fees, and other optional services purchased by customers in addition to the ticket. These add-ons are typically sold during the booking path and through pre-departure and airport channels. The company also earns revenue from travel-related products marketed to customers booking flights, including products commonly associated with trip packaging (for example, hotel and car rental offerings) and other third-party travel or protection products offered during purchase. To the extent these offerings are fulfilled by third parties, Allegiant can earn commissions or referral/marketing revenue rather than bearing the full economics of providing the service itself. Overall earnings are influenced by passenger demand for leisure travel, the company’s ability to keep operating costs low (a key element of the ultra-low-cost model), route and capacity decisions, and the attachment rate and pricing of ancillary products per passenger.

Allegiant Travel Company Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Revenue recovery has been strong, but earnings quality is weak: profitability has been volatile and 2025 ended with a net loss. The balance sheet is a key constraint with elevated leverage (debt-to-equity ~1.71x in 2025) and negative ROE, while cash flow is a partial offset with consistently positive operating cash flow and modestly positive recent free cash flow.

Income Statement

Revenue has grown from $0.99B (2020) to $2.61B (2025), but profitability has been volatile. After solid profitability in 2021 and 2023 (net margin ~8.9% and ~4.7%), results weakened materially in 2024 (operating loss) and remained pressured in 2025 with a net loss (-$44.7M) despite positive operating profit. Margins show meaningful year-to-year swings, and the business has not yet re-established consistent earnings power post-2023.

Balance Sheet

Leverage is elevated and persistent, with debt-to-equity generally around ~1.5x–2.5x and at ~1.71x in 2025. Returns on equity have been inconsistent and recently negative (2025 ROE ~-4.2%), reflecting weaker profitability against a still-levered capital structure. While equity has held up versus the 2020 trough, the balance sheet remains a risk factor given cyclical industry conditions and the recent earnings losses.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow has been consistently positive from 2020–2025 and improved to $389.8M in 2025, providing a stabilizing offset to earnings volatility. Free cash flow, however, has been uneven (large outflow in 2023, modestly positive in 2024–2025), indicating variability in cash generation after investments. Cash conversion is mixed, with free cash flow not consistently tracking reported earnings across periods.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.61B	2.51B	2.51B	2.30B	1.71B
Gross Profit	400.67M	1.57B	664.37M	340.47M	231.54M
EBITDA	326.94M	60.86M	490.24M	305.57M	446.13M
Net Income	-44.70M	-240.24M	117.60M	2.49M	151.85M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	4.21B	4.55B	4.92B	4.51B	4.01B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	805.65M	797.55M	831.00M	955.05M	1.22B
Total Debt	1.86B	2.15B	2.36B	2.21B	1.88B
Total Liabilities	3.16B	3.46B	3.59B	3.29B	2.79B
Stockholders Equity	1.05B	1.09B	1.33B	1.22B	1.22B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	75.10M	38.30M	-447.39M	-131.64M	294.58M
Operating Cash Flow	389.77M	338.46M	423.09M	303.05M	538.19M
Investing Cash Flow	-220.43M	5.58M	-721.88M	-491.42M	-593.28M
Financing Cash Flow	-280.90M	-201.30M	212.92M	33.12M	285.47M

Allegiant Travel Company Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 82.34
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ALGT, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 82.34 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 86.77, below the 50-day MA of 93.25, and above the 200-day MA of 71.44, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -5.42 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 44.01 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 49.76 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for ALGT.

Allegiant Travel Company Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SKYW	74 Outperform	$3.68B	11.02	16.35%	―	19.27%	78.26%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
SNCY	53 Neutral	$900.16M	14.47	8.62%	―	4.27%	28.47%
ALGT	48 Neutral	$1.52B	-34.43	-4.22%	―	3.29%	-983.31%
JBLU	46 Neutral	$1.55B	-2.79	-26.05%	―	-2.49%	47.88%
VLRS	45 Neutral	$837.06M	-9.81	-20.74%	―	-6.55%	-133.03%
ULCC	45 Neutral	$799.04M	-7.87	-27.39%	―	1.77%	-1964.48%

Allegiant Travel Company Corporate Events

Allegiant Lifts Q1 Outlook Ahead of Investor Conference

Allegiant Travel Company, a U.S. leisure-focused low-cost airline, concentrates on connecting underserved cities to vacation destinations and supplements fare income with ancillary travel revenues aimed at value-oriented leisure passengers. Its model emphasizes disciplined capacity management and cost control to sustain profitability in a competitive domestic air travel market.

Ahead of its March 17, 2026 appearance at the J.P. Morgan Industrials Conference, Allegiant raised its first-quarter 2026 outlook, projecting record total revenue despite an expected 5.5 percent year-over-year decline in system capacity. The carrier now anticipates fuel at about $3.00 per gallon versus prior guidance of $2.60, but expects strong demand to more than offset higher fuel costs, lifting adjusted EPS guidance to $3.25–$3.75 and adjusted operating margin to 13.5–14.5 percent, while leaving full-year guidance unchanged amid fuel price volatility and excluding any impact from its planned Sun Country acquisition.

The most recent analyst rating on (ALGT) stock is a Hold with a $78.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Allegiant Travel Company stock, see the ALGT Stock Forecast page.

Allegiant Advances Sun Country Acquisition After Antitrust Clearance

On March 16, 2026, Allegiant Travel Company and Sun Country Airlines announced that U.S. antitrust regulators granted early termination of the Hart-Scott-Rodino waiting period for Allegiant’s proposed acquisition of Sun Country. This clearance from the Department of Justice removes a key regulatory hurdle and allows the carriers to move closer to combining their leisure-focused networks, though the merger still requires U.S. Department of Transportation approvals and shareholder votes and is now expected to close in the second or third quarter of 2026.

Allegiant’s CEO said the deal is expected to create a stronger leisure-focused airline, broaden the route network and travel options, and enhance long-term value for shareholders, customers, employees, and the communities served. The announcement underscores Allegiant’s strategy to scale its low-fare, leisure model and Sun Country’s hybrid low-cost platform, potentially reshaping competition in the U.S. leisure aviation segment if remaining conditions are satisfied and integration risks are successfully managed.

The most recent analyst rating on (ALGT) stock is a Hold with a $75.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Allegiant Travel Company stock, see the ALGT Stock Forecast page.

Allegiant Travel targets 2026 margin and EPS growth

Reporting February 4, 2026, Allegiant posted fourth-quarter 2025 GAAP EPS of $1.73 and adjusted airline-only EPS of $2.72 on $656.2 million in revenue, while the full year showed a GAAP loss per share of $2.48 but adjusted airline-only EPS of $5.07; management highlighted industry-leading completion rates, a 6% reduction in unit costs, and a planned Sun Country acquisition to bolster its leisure carrier strategy. The company expects 2026 adjusted operating momentum to continue with a projected 13.5% first-quarter margin and full-year adjusted EPS topping $8, underpinned by Allegiant Extra expansion, technology upgrades, and growing MAX aircraft contributions, positioning the carrier for stronger profitability.

The most recent analyst rating on (ALGT) stock is a Buy with a $108.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Allegiant Travel Company stock, see the ALGT Stock Forecast page.

Allegiant Travel to Acquire Sun Country in Merger

On January 11, 2026, Allegiant Travel Company signed a definitive cash-and-stock merger agreement to acquire Sun Country Airlines at an implied value of $18.89 per share, a roughly 19% premium to Sun Country’s prior close, valuing the target at about $1.5 billion including net debt and leaving Allegiant and Sun Country shareholders with approximately 67% and 33% of the combined company, respectively. Each Sun Country share will convert into $4.10 in cash plus 0.1557 Allegiant shares, while Sun Country’s equity awards will be rolled into Allegiant instruments or cashed out, Sun Country stock will be delisted from Nasdaq upon closing, and three Sun Country‑designated directors, including CEO Jude Bricker, will join an expanded Allegiant board; the deal, which is subject to shareholder approvals, multiple U.S. aviation and antitrust regulatory clearances, and standard closing conditions and termination-fee protections, is expected to create a leading leisure-focused U.S. airline with complementary route networks, expanded international reach, stronger charter and cargo operations, a larger loyalty program and targeted annual synergies of about $140 million by year three, with management positioning the combination as enhancing reliability, growth prospects and long-term value for customers, employees and investors.

The most recent analyst rating on (ALGT) stock is a Hold with a $95.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Allegiant Travel Company stock, see the ALGT Stock Forecast page.