JM Smucker (SJM) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $10.81B
• Dividend Yield: 4.45%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.41M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.19
• Revenue Growth: -0.66%
• EPS Growth: -326.55%
• Country: US
• Employees: 9,000
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 42
• Industry: Packaged Foods
• EPS (TTM): 2.38
• Shares Outstanding: 106,648,315
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,985,035
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,411,235
• PEG Ratio: 0.04
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.03
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.42
• P/FCF Ratio: 15.15
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.68
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.03
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 6.21
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -115.53
• 1Y Price Target: $136.50
• Price Target Upside: 34.62% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 14
• EPS Forecast (FY): 9.04
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $9.05B

• Rating: 61 Neutral
• Price Target: $107.00 ▲(5.52% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/27/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/27/26

SJM’s score is held back primarily by the sharp swing to large TTM losses and higher leverage, despite solid and improving free cash flow. Technicals are supportive (price above key moving averages with positive MACD), and the dividend yield adds appeal, but valuation remains constrained by negative earnings. The latest earnings call was mixed—maintained guidance and strength in coffee/Uncrustables are positives, while Sweet Baked Snacks disruption and outlook reset remain the key overhang.

Positive Factors

Cash generation

Sustained, sizable free cash flow provides a durable buffer versus earnings volatility. Positive FCF supports debt service, targeted deleveraging, reinvestment in brands and supply chain, and funding for productivity programs without relying on external capital over the next several quarters.

Brand & category momentum

Clear growth in Uncrustables and distribution gains reflect durable brand equity and widening retail/away‑from‑home penetration. Such structural household additions and channel expansion underpin steady revenue potential and margin leverage as scale and mix improve over multiple quarters.

Governance & capital allocation progress

Active investor engagement and fresh board talent signal stronger financial oversight and discipline. A clearer capital-allocation framework and the stated path to <=3.0x leverage increase the likelihood of prioritized deleveraging, disciplined reinvestment, and shareholder-friendly actions over the medium term.

Negative Factors

Earnings deterioration

A recent swing to large trailing losses materially weakens profitability metrics and returns. Persistent negative operating income compresses internal capital availability, reduces margin resilience, and necessitates sustained operational fixes before historical returns and ROE normalize across reporting periods.

Elevated leverage

Higher leverage reduces financial flexibility and increases interest/execution risk while the company repairs profitability. Until net leverage meaningfully declines, investment choices, M&A optionality and large share‑repurchase programs remain constrained and financial stress from shocks is amplified.

Sweet Baked Snacks disruption

Operational disruptions and elevated bakery costs have produced durable top-line and margin setbacks in the acquired Hostess portfolio. Added trademark amortization and reset to lower long‑term growth raise the structural revenue and profitability hurdle, extending the timeline to full recovery.

JM Smucker Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

The J. M. Smucker Company manufactures and markets branded food and beverage products worldwide. It operates in three segments: U.S. Retail Pet Foods, U.S. Retail Coffee, and U.S. Retail Consumer Foods. The company offers mainstream roast, ground, single serve, and premium coffee; peanut butter and specialty spreads; fruit spreads, shortening and oils, and frozen sandwiches and snacks; pet food and pet snacks; and foodservice hot beverage, foodservice portion control, and flour products, as well as dog and cat food, frozen handheld products, juices and beverages, and baking mixes and ingredients. It provides its products under the Meow Mix, 9Lives, Kibbles 'n Bits, Milk-Bone, Pup-Peroni, Rachael Ray Nutrish and Nature's Recipe, Folgers, Café Bustelo, Dunkin', Folgers, Café Bustelo, 1850, Jif, Smucker's, Smucker's Uncrustables, Robin Hood, and Five Roses. The company sells its products through direct sales and brokers to food retailers, club stores, discount and dollar stores, online retailers, pet specialty stores, natural foods stores and distributors, drug stores, military commissaries, and mass merchandisers. Smucker Company was founded in 1897 and is headquartered in Orrville, Ohio.

How the Company Makes Money

JM Smucker makes money primarily by selling branded packaged goods to customers such as mass retailers, grocery chains, club stores, e-commerce retailers, and foodservice distributors. Revenue is generated across its major operating segments: (1) Coffee—sales of branded roast-and-ground coffee, K-Cup pods, and other coffee formats; (2) Pet Foods—sales of branded dog and cat food and pet snacks/biscuits; and (3) Consumer Foods—sales of spreads (e.g., fruit spreads and peanut butter), baking and topping products, and other center-of-store packaged foods. The core revenue model is volume (units shipped) multiplied by net price, with performance influenced by brand strength, category demand, promotional activity, product mix (e.g., premium vs. value offerings), and price changes that can reflect commodity and input-cost movements (such as coffee, peanuts, grains, packaging, and freight). The company also earns from licensed brand arrangements where applicable (for example, selling packaged coffee under licensed trademarks) and from foodservice and away-from-home offerings, which extend distribution beyond retail. Profitability (and therefore earnings) is driven by gross margin management—pricing, cost of goods (commodities and manufacturing), productivity initiatives, and supply chain efficiency—along with marketing spend and administrative costs.

JM Smucker Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Overall fundamentals are mixed. Cash flow is a clear strength (TTM operating cash flow ~$1.29B; free cash flow ~$971M), but the income statement has deteriorated sharply with large TTM net losses (~$1.26B) and negative operating income. The balance sheet is adequate but more levered (debt-to-equity ~1.40) and returns are pressured by losses, reducing flexibility until profitability stabilizes.

Income Statement

Results have deteriorated sharply: TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue is up modestly (~2%), but profitability is deeply negative with net losses of about $1.26B and negative operating income. This follows a profitable 2021–2024 period (including solid margins in 2024), suggesting a major recent margin/charge-driven disruption rather than a slow drift. Strengths include resilient top-line scale and historically strong margins, but the current loss-making profile and negative operating leverage are the key near-term red flags.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is adequate but more levered than it used to be. Debt-to-equity has risen to ~1.40 in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) from ~0.57–0.61 in 2021–2023, while equity has declined versus 2024–2025 levels. Total assets have also come down from the 2024 peak, and returns on equity are materially negative in TTM due to losses. Positives include a sizable equity base (~$5.2B), but higher leverage and loss-driven erosion in returns reduce financial flexibility.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a relative bright spot. TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) operating cash flow is ~$1.29B and free cash flow is ~$971M, with strong free-cash-flow growth versus the prior annual period. Even with net losses, free cash flow remains positive (free cash flow is ~75% of net income in magnitude), supporting debt service and reinvestment. The main weakness is that operating cash flow covers only about ~55% of net income in magnitude, indicating earnings quality is currently distorted and cash flow is not fully tracking reported losses.

Breakdown	TTM	Apr 2025	Apr 2024	Apr 2023	Apr 2022	Apr 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	8.93B	8.73B	8.18B	8.53B	8.00B	8.00B
Gross Profit	2.92B	3.38B	3.12B	2.80B	2.70B	3.14B
EBITDA	-156.80M	-155.60M	1.69B	573.80M	1.46B	1.80B
Net Income	-1.26B	-1.23B	744.00M	-91.30M	631.70M	876.30M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	16.27B	17.56B	20.27B	14.99B	16.05B	16.28B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	52.80M	69.90M	62.00M	1.14B	169.90M	334.30M
Total Debt	7.45B	7.76B	8.55B	4.42B	4.61B	4.91B
Total Liabilities	11.03B	11.48B	12.58B	7.70B	7.91B	8.16B
Stockholders Equity	5.24B	6.08B	7.69B	7.29B	8.14B	8.12B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	971.20M	816.60M	642.90M	717.00M	718.80M	1.26B
Operating Cash Flow	1.29B	1.21B	1.23B	1.19B	1.14B	1.56B
Investing Cash Flow	-255.70M	-100.30M	-3.96B	262.60M	-355.50M	311.10M
Financing Cash Flow	-1.03B	-1.10B	2.14B	-964.60M	-944.50M	-1.94B

JM Smucker Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 101.40
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SJM, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 101.4 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 109.47, below the 50-day MA of 105.92, and below the 200-day MA of 103.70, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.89 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 35.28 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 5.95 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SJM.

JM Smucker Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
HRL	68 Neutral	$12.50B	18.81	6.13%	4.82%	1.55%	-40.81%
MKC	65 Neutral	$14.78B	22.59	14.03%	2.61%	1.64%	-1.83%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%
GIS	62 Neutral	$20.06B	15.38	23.70%	5.19%	-5.65%	0.41%
SJM	61 Neutral	$10.81B	-3.86	-21.55%	4.45%	-0.66%	-326.55%
CAG	58 Neutral	$7.44B	-3.16	-1.13%	7.87%	-5.82%	-119.70%
CPB	54 Neutral	$6.28B	14.14	13.98%	5.64%	2.71%	4.90%

JM Smucker Corporate Events

JM Smucker Finalizes Separation Agreement with Former COO

The J. M. Smucker Company has finalized a separation agreement with former President and Chief Operating Officer John Brase, who ceased serving as an executive officer as previously reported on February 10, 2026. The agreement, effective February 26, 2026, sets out cooperation, confidentiality, non-compete, and non-solicitation obligations and includes a customary waiver and release of claims.

Under the terms, Brase will receive multiple lump-sum payments in April 2026 covering 18 months of base salary, a pro rata fiscal 2026 incentive payout, medical insurance support, relocation assistance, and outplacement services. Certain tranches of his restricted stock, options, and performance units will vest or become eligible for vesting on a pro-rated, performance-based basis, while remaining equity awards are forfeited, with the overall package aligned to Smucker’s existing executive severance framework.

The most recent analyst rating on (SJM) stock is a Hold with a $125.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on JM Smucker stock, see the SJM Stock Forecast page.

JM Smucker Expands Board, Adds Two New Directors

On February 24, 2026, The J. M. Smucker Company’s board of directors approved an expansion of the board from ten to eleven members and elected Woo-Sung (Bruce) Chung and David Singer as new directors, effective April 15, 2026, with both also joining the audit committee. At the same time, director Mercedes Abramo will move from the audit committee to the nominating, governance, and corporate responsibility committee, reflecting a rebalancing of board responsibilities.

Chung and Singer will receive standard non-employee director compensation, and Smucker will enter into director indemnification agreements with each, effective April 15, 2026, consistent with those provided to existing directors and officers. The company said there were no special arrangements underlying their election and no related-party transactions requiring disclosure, and it announced the board changes publicly in a press release dated February 26, 2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (SJM) stock is a Hold with a $105.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on JM Smucker stock, see the SJM Stock Forecast page.

J.M. Smucker Unveils Major Executive Leadership Reorganization

On February 10, 2026, The J.M. Smucker Co. announced a sweeping leadership reorganization, effective February 9, 2026, eliminating the chief operating officer role as President and COO John Brase exited executive leadership, while CEO and Chair Mark Smucker reassumed the president title. The shake-up consolidates strategic and operational oversight under a tighter senior team and is framed as supporting the company’s long‑term growth and profitability ambitions.

Chief Financial Officer Tucker Marshall was elevated to CFO | Executive Vice President, Frozen Handheld and Spreads and Sweet Baked Snacks, gaining responsibility for sales and strategic leadership of frozen handheld, spreads, sweet baked snacks, and international businesses. The move pairs his financial stewardship with direct P&L and commercial oversight in categories the company has identified as key growth and margin‑improvement engines.

Rob Ferguson was promoted from Senior Vice President and General Manager, Coffee and Procurement to Chief Product Supply Officer | Executive Vice President, Coffee, Pet, and Away From Home, taking charge of operations, distribution, supply chain, procurement, commodity hedging, quality, R&D, and productivity programs. His remit now includes strategic leadership of U.S. retail coffee, pet foods, and away‑from‑home, signaling a stronger alignment of supply chain, innovation, and category growth priorities.

Chief People and Company Services Officer Jill Penrose advanced to Chief People and Administrative Officer | Chief of Staff, adding corporate strategy and chief of staff duties to her existing communications, government relations, HR, community relations, and philanthropy responsibilities. The expanded role centralizes strategic planning and organizational culture under a single leader, reflecting the importance of coordinated change management during the restructuring.

Further changes, effective July 27, 2026, will shift Tim Wayne from Senior Vice President and General Manager, Away From Home and International to Senior Vice President and General Manager, Coffee and Away From Home, and move Robert Crane to Senior Vice President, Head of Sales and International from his current sales leadership role. Both will report into Ferguson and Marshall respectively, tightening reporting lines between category leadership, international expansion, and enterprise‑wide commercial strategy.

The company also disclosed planned retirements of Senior Vice President, Operations, Randy Day, and Senior Vice President, Information Services and Supply Chain, Bryan Hutson, who will stay on to support transitions. Smucker plans to recruit a Chief Technology Officer to drive information technology and artificial intelligence strategy, as well as new senior roles in operations, supply chain, and science and technical functions, underscoring a push to modernize its infrastructure and innovation capabilities while maintaining its fiscal 2026 outlook.

The most recent analyst rating on (SJM) stock is a Hold with a $105.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on JM Smucker stock, see the SJM Stock Forecast page.