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SiteOne Landscape Supply (SITE)
NYSE:SITE
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SiteOne Landscape Supply
(NYSE:SITE)
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Rating:70Outperform
Price Target:
$143.00
▲(10.34% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/13/26
The score is driven primarily by solid financial quality (steady FCF and manageable leverage) and strong technical momentum (price above key moving averages with positive MACD). This is tempered by a demanding valuation (high P/E) and the need for margin expansion to materialize amid identifiable 2026 headwinds.
Positive Factors
Operational initiatives driving margins
Private-label growth, digital adoption and focus-branch improvements are structural margin levers. Scaling proprietary SKUs and digital ordering reduces cost-to-serve and improves mix, while focus-branch gains show replicable operating improvements that can sustain gross and adjusted-EBITDA margin expansion over the next several quarters.
Scale & market position
A national branch network and multi-DC footprint create durable competitive advantages: purchasing scale, faster fulfillment, and local presence. Holding ~19% of an estimated $25B market gives recurring revenue opportunities and increases barriers for smaller independents over the next several quarters.
Consistent free cash flow
Reliable FCF generation and improving operating cash flow support reinvestment, M&A and conservative leverage. With net debt reduced and available liquidity (~$768M noted in results), the company can fund acquisitions and capital projects without straining the balance sheet over a multi-quarter horizon.
Negative Factors
Profitability compression
A meaningful step-down in operating and net profitability reduces return on invested capital and limits internal capital generation. If margins remain depressed, the company may struggle to translate revenue growth into durable EPS and ROE improvements without continued cost or mix initiatives.
Exposure to housing cycle
About one-fifth of sales tied to new residential construction makes revenue sensitive to interest rates and housing starts. Prolonged weakness in residential activity could pressure organic growth and branch-level volumes for multiple quarters, limiting margin recovery and acquisition payback periods.
Working capital and logistics pressures
Higher inventory and working capital tie up cash and raise the cash conversion cycle, constraining free cash flow deployment for buybacks or M&A. Combined with elevated distribution/ DC costs noted elsewhere, this can persistently pressure near-term cash returns and require careful operational execution to reverse.
SiteOne Landscape Supply (SITE) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$5.76B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)589.55K
Price to Earnings (P/E)37.5
Beta (1Y)1.16
Revenue Growth4.00%
EPS Growth-0.75%
CountryUS
Employees7,840
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryIndustrial - Distribution
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.02
Shares Outstanding44,459,316
10 Day Avg. Volume557,666
30 Day Avg. Volume589,555
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.55
Price to Book (P/B)3.43
Price to Sales (P/S)1.21
P/FCF Ratio23.09
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.14
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.40
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.02
Enterprise Value/Ebitda18.03
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$173.71Price Target Upside34.04% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)4.44
Revenue Forecast (FY)$4.92B
SiteOne Landscape Supply Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionSiteOne Landscape Supply, Inc. engages in the wholesale distribution of landscape supplies in the United States and Canada. The company provides a selection of approximately 135,000 stock keeping units, including irrigation supplies, which comprise controllers, valves, sprinkler heads, and irrigation pipes; fertilizer, grass seed, and ice melt products; control products, such as herbicides, fungicides, rodenticides, and other pesticides; landscape accessories that include mulches, soil amendments, drainage pipes, tools, and sods; nursery goods, which consist of deciduous and evergreen shrubs, ornamental, shade, evergreen trees, field grown and container-grown nursery stock, roses, perennials, annuals, bulbs, and plant species; hardscapes, such as pavers, natural stones, blocks, and other durable materials; and outdoor lighting products that include lighting fixtures, LED lamps, wires, transformers, and accessories. It also offers consultative services consisting of assistance with irrigation network design, commercial project planning, generation of sales leads, business operations, product support services, and a series of technical and business management seminars; and distributes branded products of third parties. The company offers its products under the LESCO, SiteOne Green Tech, and Pro-Trade brand names. It markets its products primarily to residential and commercial landscape professionals who specialize in the design, installation, and maintenance of lawns, gardens, golf courses, and other outdoor spaces through branch network and direct distribution. As of January 2, 2022, the company had approximately 590 branches in 45 U.S. States and six Canadian provinces. SiteOne Landscape Supply, Inc. was incorporated in 2013 and is headquartered in Roswell, Georgia.
How the Company Makes MoneySiteOne makes money primarily by selling landscape and outdoor-living products to professional customers (e.g., landscape contractors and other trade customers) and related end markets, earning a gross margin on the spread between its purchase costs from manufacturers/growers and its selling prices. Its revenue is generated across multiple product categories, with sales driven by volume and mix of (1) irrigation products (including sprinklers, controllers, valves, pipe/fittings and related components), (2) landscape lighting and drainage products, (3) nursery products (plants, trees, shrubs and other live goods sourced from growers), (4) hardscapes (pavers, block, stone and related accessories used in patios, walkways and outdoor living projects), (5) turf and turf-maintenance products (grass seed, fertilizers, chemicals and other maintenance inputs), and (6) other landscape supplies. The company also generates revenue through services and capabilities that support product sales, such as fulfillment via its branch network and logistics, and by providing product availability and procurement convenience for time-sensitive jobs. In addition to organic sales growth, a recurring driver of revenue expansion has been acquisitions of local and regional distributors that add branches, customers, and product lines; the resulting scale can support purchasing leverage and distribution efficiency, which can contribute to earnings. Specific partnership terms, customer concentration details, or category-level revenue percentages: null.
SiteOne Landscape Supply Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 11, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized multiple operational and financial improvements (net sales growth, gross margin expansion, adjusted EBITDA growth, improved liquidity, private label and digital acceleration, focus-branch recoveries and continued M&A capability). Management provided constructive 2026 guidance (low-single-digit organic daily sales growth, pricing +1%–3%, and adjusted EBITDA guidance of $425M–$455M) while also transparently noting near-term headwinds (weak new residential construction, lingering commodity deflation in select categories, a dilutive extra fiscal week and initial costs from DC expansion). Overall, the positives—margin expansion, improved cash flow and leverage, and execution on key strategic initiatives—appear to outweigh the manageable near-term challenges.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Revenue Growth (FY2025 & Q4)
Net sales increased 4% year-over-year to $4.7 billion for fiscal 2025 and increased 3% to $1.05 billion in the fourth quarter, on the same number of selling days as prior-year periods.
Organic Daily Sales Improvement
Organic daily sales grew 1% for the full year 2025 and 2% in the fourth quarter, reflecting market share gains and stronger pricing in the second half of the year.
Gross Profit and Margin Expansion
Gross profit rose 5% for FY2025 with gross margin up 40 basis points to 34.8%. In Q4, gross profit increased 6% and gross margin expanded 80 basis points to 34.1%, driven by improved price realization and commercial initiatives.
Adjusted EBITDA and Margin Improvement
Adjusted EBITDA increased approximately 10% year-over-year to $414.2 million for FY2025 with adjusted EBITDA margin up 50 basis points to 8.8%. Fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA rose 18% to $37.6 million with margin expanding 50 basis points to 3.6%.
Net Income and Quarterly Loss Improvement
Net income attributable to SiteOne increased to $151.8 million for FY2025 from $123.6 million in FY2024. The company reduced its Q4 net loss to $9.0 million from a $21.7 million loss in the prior-year period.
Balance Sheet Strength and Liquidity
Net debt decreased to $330 million (leverage 0.8x trailing 12-month adjusted EBITDA vs 1.1x prior year). Available liquidity totaled $768 million ($191 million cash, $578 million ABL capacity). Operating cash flow improved to $301 million for FY2025.
Private Label and Digital Momentum
Private label mix increased by over 100 basis points to 15% of total sales in 2025. Digital sales grew over 120% year-over-year; regular users increased ~60% (thousands of new regular users), with management expecting double-digit digital penetration in 2026.
Operational Improvements: Delivery & Focus Branches
Net delivery expense was reduced by over 40 basis points on delivered sales (approx. one-third of total sales). Focus branches achieved an over 200 basis point improvement in adjusted EBITDA margin in 2025; management expects similar contributions in 2026.
Acquisition Track Record and Pipeline
Since 2014 the company completed 107 acquisitions adding approximately $2.1 billion in trailing 12-month sales. SiteOne added eight companies in 2025 (~$55 million TTM sales) and reports a robust pipeline with expectations of more typical deal sizes in 2026.
Capital Allocation and Share Repurchases
Executed a balanced capital allocation plan in 2025: invested ~$93 million in CapEx and acquisitions, maintained leverage at ~0.8x, and repurchased approximately $98 million of shares (817,000 shares in FY2025).
Negative Updates
New Residential Construction Weakness
New residential construction, representing ~20% of sales, is expected to be down in 2026 due to elevated interest rates, lower consumer confidence, and high home values; this segment was already down in 2025 and is a key headwind to growth.
Commodity Price Deflation Impact
Certain commodity categories remained deflationary in Q4 — grass seed down ~12% and PVC pipe down ~10% — which have depressed prior-year margins; management expects these deflationary impacts to be diminishing but they were notable headwinds.
Fifty-Third Week (Extra Week) Headwind
Fiscal 2026 includes an extra week (four selling days) that falls in a seasonally weak period; management expects this to reduce adjusted EBITDA by $4 million to $5 million and to create roughly a 100 basis point negative drag on organic daily sales for the year.
Short-Term Dilution from Distribution Center Expansion and Freight
Investment in a fifth distribution center (added in Q4) and expansion of another DC increased freight and logistics costs and produced near-term dilutive impacts; management cited an incremental ~$8 million headwind related to DC expansion in 2026.
Smaller-than-Normal M&A Contribution in 2025
2025 was a lighter acquisition year with smaller deals (eight companies, ~$55 million TTM sales), below the company’s longer-term average deal size, limiting acquisition-driven growth contribution in the year.
Branch Consolidations and Associated Costs
Company consolidated and closed 20 branches in 2025; these actions negatively impacted SG&A by $6 million in Q4 (about $4.5 million reflected in adjusted EBITDA). Although management expects to retain most sales via nearby branches, closures generate short-term costs and disruption.
Higher Effective Tax Rate Guidance and Working Capital Build
Effective tax rate is expected to be 25%–26% for fiscal 2026 (up from 22.5% in 2025). Working capital increased to $1.01 billion (from $909 million) due in part to strategic inventory purchases, which could pressure near-term cash deployment.
Regional Pressure and Market Uncertainty
Certain regions (e.g., Texas and California) experienced continued pressure from softness in new construction and broader uncertainty persists around interest rates and consumer confidence, which could negatively affect end markets if conditions worsen.
Company Guidance
Management guided 2026 to low‑single‑digit organic daily sales growth (positive sales volume) with pricing up 1%–3%, and full‑year adjusted EBITDA of $425M–$455M (excluding any contribution from unannounced acquisitions); they noted a $4M–$5M EBITDA headwind from a 53rd selling week (256 selling days in FY2026 vs. 252 in FY2025) that they estimate will also subtract roughly 100 bps from organic growth. They expect gross margin to be higher than 2025’s 34.8% and adjusted EBITDA margin to expand beyond 2025’s 8.8% as commercial initiatives, focus‑branch improvements (over 200 bps margin lift in focus branches in 2025), private‑label growth (private label ~15% of sales, +100 bps in 2025), and acquisitions drive operating leverage. The company plans to continue adding acquisitions from a robust pipeline, while maintaining a conservative balance sheet (net debt $330M, leverage 0.8x TTM adjusted EBITDA) and $768M of available liquidity (cash $191M + $578M ABL), leveraging its >670‑branch, five‑distribution‑center footprint across 45 U.S. states and five Canadian provinces to capture additional share in an estimated $25B market (current share ~19%).SiteOne Landscape Supply Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Strong top-line momentum and consistently positive/free-cash-flow generation (FCF up to ~$247M in 2025) support the score. Offsetting this, operating and net profitability have compressed versus 2021–2022 levels, with lower ROE (~9% in 2025), keeping the financial profile solid but not top-tier.Income Statement
Revenue growth has been strong overall, accelerating sharply in 2025 (annual revenue up to ~$4.7B). However, profitability has weakened versus earlier years: net margin fell from ~6–7% (2021–2022) to ~3.2% (2025), and operating profitability also compressed versus prior peaks. Gross margin has been relatively steady in the mid-30% range, but the step-down in operating and net profitability is a key watch item despite the higher sales base.67
Positive
Balance Sheet
Leverage looks manageable for a distributor, with debt-to-equity around ~0.59 in 2025 (improving from ~0.71 in 2020) and equity steadily building over time. Returns to shareholders have cooled meaningfully (return on equity down from ~19–23% in 2021–2022 to ~9% in 2025), reflecting the margin/earnings compression. Overall, the balance sheet appears stable, but the lower return profile reduces the quality of the recent capital base.72
Positive
Cash Flow
Cash generation is solid, with free cash flow positive every year and rising to ~$247M in 2025. Free cash flow tracks reasonably well versus reported earnings (about ~82% of net income in 2025), suggesting generally acceptable earnings quality. A notable weakness is that operating cash flow has not consistently outpaced earnings and sits at a relatively modest level versus sales, but the company still converts a meaningful portion into free cash flow and showed a strong free-cash-flow rebound in 2025.74
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 4.70B | 4.54B | 4.30B | 4.01B | 3.48B |
| Gross Profit | 1.64B | 1.56B | 1.49B | 1.42B | 1.21B |
| EBITDA | 318.80M | 331.30M | 378.00M | 436.90M | 396.70M |
| Net Income | 151.80M | 123.60M | 173.40M | 245.40M | 238.40M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 3.22B | 3.07B | 2.83B | 2.53B | 2.12B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 190.60M | 107.10M | 82.50M | 29.10M | 53.70M |
| Total Debt | 980.00M | 951.30M | 861.40M | 739.50M | 606.90M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.54B | 1.48B | 1.34B | 1.23B | 1.06B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.66B | 1.57B | 1.49B | 1.30B | 1.06B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 246.80M | 238.60M | 261.50M | 175.50M | 173.80M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 300.50M | 283.40M | 297.50M | 217.20M | 210.80M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -83.40M | -177.10M | -226.00M | -284.40M | -182.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -134.60M | -80.90M | -18.30M | 43.40M | -30.40M |
SiteOne Landscape Supply Technical Analysis
Negative
129.60
Price Trends
143.36
Negative
135.67
Negative
133.11
Negative
Market Momentum
-4.35
Positive
36.65
Neutral
24.69
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SITE, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 129.6 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 138.46, below the 50-day MA of 143.36, and below the 200-day MA of 133.11, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -4.35 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 36.65 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 24.69 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SITE.
SiteOne Landscape Supply Risk Analysis
SiteOne Landscape Supply disclosed 29 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. SiteOne Landscape Supply reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 1 New Risks
1.
Prices for the products we purchase and the costs to operate our business are subject to significant volatility and external market variables beyond our control, and we may be unable to adjust our pricing or cost structure quickly enough to avoid the adverse effects on our financial performance. Q4, 2025
SiteOne Landscape Supply Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | $51.77B | 36.60 | 32.83% | 2.10% | 6.92% | 5.98% | |
72 Outperform | $9.64B | 25.36 | 21.74% | 0.70% | 4.03% | 5.93% | |
70 Outperform | $5.76B | 37.54 | 8.37% | ― | 4.00% | -0.75% | |
66 Neutral | $4.91B | 23.96 | 14.89% | 3.96% | -1.35% | -22.24% | |
66 Neutral | $12.25B | 18.89 | 13.02% | 0.72% | 5.28% | 1.97% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
56 Neutral | $1.18B | 152.18 | -1.68% | ― | 14.46% | -588.82% |
* Industrials Sector Average
SITE
SiteOne Landscape Supply
129.60
6.95
5.67%
AIT
Applied Industrial Technologies
258.51
29.94
13.10%
FAST
Fastenal Company
45.08
7.64
20.40%
DSGR
Distribution Solutions Group
25.60
-4.27
-14.30%
MSM
MSC Industrial
87.94
12.02
15.83%
WCC
Wesco International
251.64
86.88
52.73%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.