Simmons 1st Nat'l (SFNC) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.71B
• Dividend Yield: 4.41%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.14M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.81
• Revenue Growth: -55.53%
• EPS Growth: -387.04%
• Country: US
• Employees: 2,949
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Banks - Regional
• EPS (TTM): 0.54
• Shares Outstanding: 144,867,840
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,162,116
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,141,823
• PEG Ratio: 0.02
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.79
• Price to Sales (P/S): 4.30
• P/FCF Ratio: 6.37
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.10
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 4.81
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 107.84
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -6.69
• 1Y Price Target: $22.67
• Price Target Upside: 22.21% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6
• EPS Forecast (FY): 2
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $992.98M

• Rating: 61 Neutral
• Price Target: $21.50 ▲(15.90% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/04/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/04/26

The score is anchored by weaker financial performance driven by the 2025 loss, partially offset by a supportive earnings-call outlook (NIM/NII guidance and repricing tailwinds). Technical indicators are largely neutral and valuation is helped by the ~4.17% dividend yield, though the negative P/E limits earnings-based valuation support.

Positive Factors

Balance-sheet resilience

Leverage has improved and equity is sizable versus assets, providing a durable capital buffer. That resilience reduces solvency risk, supports loss absorption, and preserves capacity to fund lending or dividends through economic cycles, enhancing multi-quarter financial flexibility.

Consistent cash generation

Operating and free cash flow remained positive and improved in 2025 despite the headline loss, indicating the core business generates cash. Persistent cash generation supports organic loan growth, dividend funding, and the $175M buyback optionality while limiting reliance on expensive wholesale funding.

Back-book repricing and NII/NIM guidance

Management expects substantial back-book repricing (> $2.5B under 4%) and guided to 9%–11% NII growth with NIM near mid‑3.80%. These structural repricing dynamics and explicit guidance support a durable uplift in net interest income and margin recovery across the next two years.

Negative Factors

2025 profitability shock

A large net loss and materially negative margins in 2025 represent a meaningful reversal of prior profitability. Restoring stable earnings will require sustained NIM and fee improvement plus expense control; until then, ROE and capital deployment plans remain constrained and risk investor confidence.

Deposit competition and funding constraints

Elevated deposit competition and a below‑peer share of core noninterest-bearing deposits limit low-cost funding growth. A high cumulative deposit beta (~64%) raises NIM sensitivity and may force reliance on pricier funding or slower loan growth, constraining durable margin expansion.

Compressed loan pricing in CRE markets

Management notes aggressive, return‑compressing CRE pricing that reduces risk‑adjusted yields. If competitive pressure persists, attractive lending opportunities shrink, underwriting must tighten, and long-term loan spread recovery will be harder, limiting sustainable revenue and margin upside.

Simmons 1st Nat'l Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Simmons First National Corporation operates as the holding company for Simmons Bank that provides banking and other financial products and services to individuals and businesses. It offers checking, savings, and time deposits; consumer, real estate, and commercial loans; agricultural finance, equipment, and small business administration lending; trust and fiduciary services; credit cards; investment management products; insurance products; and securities and investment services. The company also provides ATM services; Internet and mobile banking platforms; overdraft facilities; and safe deposit boxes. As of January 27, 2022, the company operated through 199 financial centers in Arkansas, Missouri, Tennessee, Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas. Simmons First National Corporation was founded in 1903 and is headquartered in Pine Bluff, Arkansas.

How the Company Makes Money

Simmons 1st National Corporation generates revenue through several key streams, primarily from net interest income, which is derived from the difference between the interest earned on loans and the interest paid on deposits. The bank lends money to consumers and businesses at higher rates than what it pays to depositors, creating a profit margin. Additionally, SFNC earns non-interest income from various fees associated with its banking services, including account maintenance fees, transaction fees, and service charges. The bank also generates revenue from its mortgage lending operations, investment management services, and wealth management solutions. Significant partnerships with local businesses and community organizations further enhance its service offerings and customer base, contributing to its overall financial performance.

Simmons 1st Nat'l Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Mixed fundamentals: the balance sheet has de-risked with improved leverage (supporting resilience) and operating/free cash flow remained positive. However, the 2025 profitability breakdown (large net loss and deeply negative margins) materially weakens earnings stability and outweighs prior-year strength.

Income Statement

Revenue growth was solid through 2024 (including strong growth in 2022–2023), but profitability deteriorated sharply in 2025: net income swung to a large loss and margins turned deeply negative after several years of healthy positive net margins. The magnitude of the 2025 earnings reversal outweighs the prior multi-year profitability trend and raises concerns about earnings stability.

Balance Sheet

Leverage looks moderate, with debt-to-equity improving notably over time and reaching a relatively conservative level in 2025. Equity remains sizable relative to assets, which supports balance-sheet resilience. However, returns on equity turned negative in 2025 following positive returns in prior years, signaling that capital is currently not generating profits and pressuring overall balance-sheet quality.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow and free cash flow were positive across the period and improved in 2025 versus 2024, showing underlying cash generation despite the reported loss. That said, free cash flow growth has been volatile year-to-year, and cash flow relative to the scale of obligations appears thin based on the low operating cash flow coverage levels provided, which limits financial flexibility in a stress scenario.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	626.80M	1.45B	1.34B	1.02B	847.94M
Gross Profit	36.36M	715.97M	750.42M	861.07M	799.62M
EBITDA	-474.97M	217.42M	248.48M	355.52M	379.68M
Net Income	-397.55M	152.69M	175.06M	256.41M	271.16M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	24.54B	26.88B	27.35B	27.46B	24.72B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	3.65B	2.08B	3.77B	4.54B	8.77B
Total Debt	641.35M	1.15B	1.41B	1.39B	1.91B
Total Liabilities	21.12B	23.35B	23.92B	24.19B	21.48B
Stockholders Equity	3.42B	3.53B	3.43B	3.27B	3.25B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	423.05M	380.42M	507.89M	286.93M	229.92M
Operating Cash Flow	461.19M	425.92M	540.98M	322.20M	277.78M
Investing Cash Flow	1.56B	369.51M	-183.59M	-946.23M	-2.54B
Financing Cash Flow	-2.00B	-722.15M	-425.42M	-344.50M	438.46M

Simmons 1st Nat'l Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 18.55
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SFNC, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 18.55 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 19.54, below the 50-day MA of 19.94, and below the 200-day MA of 18.98, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.47 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 36.30 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 17.76 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SFNC.

Simmons 1st Nat'l Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CBU	70 Outperform	$2.96B	15.30	10.99%	3.14%	9.41%	20.64%
WSBC	70 Outperform	$3.19B	8.17	5.67%	4.35%	41.49%	-5.53%
BKU	69 Neutral	$3.19B	12.64	8.99%	2.71%	-5.44%	45.47%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
FBK	64 Neutral	$2.65B	24.15	6.87%	1.34%	10.50%	-6.22%
TOWN	63 Neutral	$3.01B	15.10	7.37%	3.04%	9.48%	12.83%
SFNC	61 Neutral	$2.71B	-6.78	-11.48%	4.41%	-55.53%	-387.04%

Simmons 1st Nat'l Corporate Events

Simmons First Enhances Executive Change-in-Control Severance Terms

On February 27, 2026, Simmons First National Corporation and Simmons Bank amended an existing Executive Change in Control Severance Agreement with executive James M. Brogdon, originally dated July 30, 2021. The amendment increases the formula for his termination compensation from two times to three times his Base Period Income, enhancing his severance benefits in the event of a change in control and signaling a more protective stance toward key executive retention and compensation.

The most recent analyst rating on (SFNC) stock is a Hold with a $23.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Simmons 1st Nat’l stock, see the SFNC Stock Forecast page.

Simmons First National Launches New $175 Million Buyback

On February 17, 2026, Simmons First National Corporation announced that its board of directors had authorized a new stock repurchase program allowing the company to buy back up to $175 million of its Class A common stock. The initiative, which replaces a prior plan that ended on January 31, 2026, is scheduled to run through January 31, 2028, highlighting an ongoing capital management strategy aimed at potentially enhancing shareholder value.

The company may conduct repurchases on the open market or through privately negotiated transactions, including trades executed under Rule 10b5-1, with management retaining broad discretion over timing, pricing and volume based on market conditions and corporate needs. Simmons plans to fund the program from available liquidity, such as cash on hand and future cash flow, while retaining the flexibility to modify, suspend or discontinue the buybacks, which gives the bank room to adjust capital deployment as economic and market conditions evolve.

The most recent analyst rating on (SFNC) stock is a Buy with a $22.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Simmons 1st Nat’l stock, see the SFNC Stock Forecast page.

Simmons First National Posts Strong Q4 2025 Earnings

On January 20, 2026, Simmons First National Corporation reported fourth-quarter 2025 diluted earnings per share of $0.54 on net income of $78.1 million, driven by total revenue of $249.0 million and a 31-basis-point sequential expansion in net interest margin to 3.81%. Adjusted pre-provision net revenue rose 19% from the prior quarter to $110.4 million, supported by lower deposit costs, improved efficiency ratios, and modest annualized growth of 7% in total loans and 7–8% in total deposits, while key capital ratios such as tangible common equity and CET1 remained solid. Asset quality metrics showed mixed signals: the net charge-off ratio increased to 1.12% due to previously disclosed credit issues and a run-off portfolio, but the nonperforming loan ratio improved by 26 basis points to 0.64%, with management highlighting proactive credit cleanup and appropriate reserve levels as part of an ongoing effort to strengthen the loan portfolio and overall balance sheet positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (SFNC) stock is a Hold with a $19.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Simmons 1st Nat’l stock, see the SFNC Stock Forecast page.

Simmons First CEO Enters Personal Aircraft Time-Sharing Agreement

On December 23, 2025, Simmons First National Corporation entered into an aircraft time sharing agreement with its chairman and chief executive officer, George Makris, Jr., allowing him to lease the company’s aircraft with crew on a non-exclusive basis for personal travel for himself and his guests. Under the arrangement, Makris must reimburse Simmons for the actual costs of each flight, including any related deadhead legs, and either party can terminate the agreement with 10 business days’ written notice, while the company will not provide any tax reimbursements related to his personal use of the aircraft, shifting all associated tax obligations to the executive.

The most recent analyst rating on (SFNC) stock is a Hold with a $22.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Simmons 1st Nat’l stock, see the SFNC Stock Forecast page.

Simmons 1st Nat’l Approves Vesting for Retiring Executive

On December 4, 2025, Simmons First National Corporation’s board of directors decided to allow the unvested performance share units granted to George Makris, Jr. in 2024 to vest post-retirement. This decision ensures that the units will vest as if he had remained employed for the entire performance period, without any proration or acceleration of payment.

The most recent analyst rating on (SFNC) stock is a Hold with a $19.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Simmons 1st Nat’l stock, see the SFNC Stock Forecast page.