Serve Robotics Inc (SERV)
NASDAQ:SERV
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Serve Robotics Inc
(NASDAQ:SERV)
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Rating:52Neutral
Price Target:
$8.50
▲(1.55% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/12/26
SERV scores as a higher-risk growth story: strong revenue momentum and a low-debt, well-funded balance sheet are key positives, reinforced by raised 2026 revenue guidance and $260M liquidity. The score is held back most by extremely weak profitability and significant cash burn, with technicals also mixed (below key longer-term moving averages and negative MACD).
Positive Factors
Strong liquidity
A $260M cash balance provides multi-quarter runway for capital-intensive fleet deployments, R&D and M&A integration. This durable liquidity cushion reduces near-term financing pressure and gives management flexibility to prioritize operational scale and product development over forced fundraising.
Negative Factors
Substantial cash burn
Persistent negative operating and free cash flows mean the business consumes material liquidity to grow. Over multiple quarters this raises capital-raising risk or dilution if organic cash generation does not materially improve through higher utilization or lower operating costs.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong liquidity
A $260M cash balance provides multi-quarter runway for capital-intensive fleet deployments, R&D and M&A integration. This durable liquidity cushion reduces near-term financing pressure and gives management flexibility to prioritize operational scale and product development over forced fundraising.
Read all positive factors
Serve Robotics Inc (SERV) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$633.53M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)3.99M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.94
Revenue Growth15.84%
EPS Growth-71.99%
CountryUS
Employees120
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryIndustrial - Machinery
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.46
Shares Outstanding75,690,180
10 Day Avg. Volume2,776,197
30 Day Avg. Volume3,988,905
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.12
Price to Book (P/B)1.84
Price to Sales (P/S)243.87
P/FCF Ratio-5.50
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.66
Enterprise Value/Revenue156.56
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit-26.98
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-4.19
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$21.00Price Target Upside150.90% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)-2.29
Revenue Forecast (FY)$26.52M
Serve Robotics Inc Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Serve Robotics Inc. designs, develops, and operates low-emission robots that serve people in public spaces with food delivery in the United States. It builds self-driving delivery robots. The company was formerly known as Patricia Acquisition Corp...
How the Company Makes Money
Serve Robotics primarily makes money by providing autonomous last‑mile delivery services using its fleet of sidewalk robots. Revenue is generated when deliveries are completed on behalf of participating merchants and delivery platforms, typically ...
Serve Robotics Inc Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 11, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 20, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlighted clear operational and commercial momentum: rapid fleet scale to 2,000 robots, strong percentage growth across revenue, delivery volume, merchant partnerships, and emerging monetization (advertising, software, data, healthcare). Management raised 2026 revenue guidance materially and emphasized the platform/flywheel strategy supported by four acquisitions and $260M liquidity. However, sizable near-term profitability headwinds remain: adjusted EBITDA was negative $28M, Q4 GAAP opex was high, and 2026 non-GAAP opex guidance is elevated. The company also faces execution risks from integrations, supply-chain timing, and the need to mature newly deployed cohorts to reach steady-state economics. Overall, operational wins and a strong cash position outweigh near-term losses and integration/timing risks, supporting a constructive outlook if execution continues.Positive Updates
Major Fleet Deployment Milestone
Activated a fleet of 2,000 robots across 20 cities (six major metros), completing the 2,000th robot mid-December and deploying nearly 1,000 robots in Q4 alone.
Negative Updates
Profitability and Cash Flow Pressure
Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was negative $28,000,000, reflecting substantial ongoing losses as the company scales operations.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Major Fleet Deployment Milestone
Activated a fleet of 2,000 robots across 20 cities (six major metros), completing the 2,000th robot mid-December and deploying nearly 1,000 robots in Q4 alone.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Serve Robotics raised 2026 revenue guidance to approximately $26.0 million, driven in part by an expected ~$7.0 million contribution from the recently acquired Diligent Robotics, and plans roughly $25.0 million of capital expenditures for 2026; management expects 2026 non‑GAAP operating expenses of about $160–170 million (with recent acquisitions increasing the 2026 operating base by $20–30 million). The company closed 2025 with $260.0 million in cash and marketable securities, reported adjusted EBITDA of negative $28.0 million (Q4) and expects sequential improvement in adjusted EBITDA margins through 2026, while highlighting long‑term potential for a $60–80 million annualized revenue run rate at full fleet utilization; additionally, recurring software now represents ~70% of software revenue and underlying recurring revenues grew over 3x in 2025.Serve Robotics Inc Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
12
Very Negative
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
18
Very Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 2.65M | 1.81M | 207.54K | 107.82K | 0.00 |
| Gross Profit | -15.38M | -75.16K | -1.52M | -1.04M | -42.47K |
| EBITDA | -104.56M | -37.98M | -17.39M | -20.83M | -21.62M |
| Net Income | -101.36M | -39.19M | -24.81M | -21.86M | -21.67M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 367.75M | 139.60M | 2.80M | 8.54M | 8.66M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 233.41M | 123.27M | 6.76K | 2.72M | 7.97M |
| Total Debt | 5.25M | 2.34M | 4.37M | 7.48M | 0.00 |
| Total Liabilities | 17.01M | 7.92M | 6.84M | 21.00M | 336.31K |
| Stockholders Equity | 350.74M | 131.68M | -4.03M | -12.45M | 8.32M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -117.57M | -31.79M | -15.98M | -25.05M | -10.87M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -80.24M | -21.54M | -15.97M | -21.40M | -10.71M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -198.00M | -10.32M | -4.91K | -4.06M | -258.73K |
| Financing Cash Flow | 261.21M | 155.12M | 13.27M | 20.21M | 18.93M |
Serve Robotics Inc Technical Analysis
Negative
8.37
Price Trends
9.65
Negative
10.61
Negative
11.19
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.47
Positive
42.53
Neutral
32.00
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SERV, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 8.37 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8.97, below the 50-day MA of 9.65, and below the 200-day MA of 11.19, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.47 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 42.53 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 32.00 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SERV.
Serve Robotics Inc Risk Analysis
Serve Robotics Inc disclosed 62 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Serve Robotics Inc reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 3 New Risks
1.
We will require significant capital to fund our operations and growth, and financing may not be available when needed or on acceptable terms. Additionally, any equity or equity-linked financing could dilute our stockholders, and any debt financing could impose restrictive covenants and increase our financial obligations. Q4, 2025
2.
Earnout or other contingent consideration from acquisitions may not be attained and could adversely affect our business, financial condition, results of operations and cash flows. Q4, 2025
3.
We have acquired, and may in the future acquire, other companies, employee teams, or technologies, which could divert our management's attention, result in additional indebtedness or dilution to our stockholders, or otherwise disrupt our operations and adversely affect our operating results. Q4, 2025
Serve Robotics Inc Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
59 Neutral | $32.85B | 643.38 | -3.34% | ― | 24.80% | -31.37% | |
52 Neutral | $633.53M | -6.38 | -38.54% | ― | 15.84% | -71.99% | |
50 Neutral | $12.98M | 2.01 | 21.29% | ― | -1.36% | ― | |
50 Neutral | $8.24B | -8.65 | -39.77% | ― | ― | 5.46% | |
48 Neutral | $27.40M | -13.40 | -6.24% | ― | 19.84% | 95.71% |
* Industrials Sector Average
SERV
Serve Robotics Inc
8.37
2.51
42.83%
CVV
CVD Equipment
3.95
1.07
37.15%
GTEC
Greenland Technologies Holding
0.68
-0.87
-56.00%
SYM
Symbotic
54.55
33.17
155.14%
AUR
Aurora Innovation
4.23
-2.32
-35.42%
RR
Richtech Robotics Inc. Class B
2.09
0.18
9.42%
Serve Robotics Inc Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions
Serve Robotics Reports Surging 2025 Revenue and Fleet Expansion
Positive
Mar 11, 2026
Serve Robotics Inc., a Nasdaq-listed autonomous sidewalk delivery specialist, reported on March 11, 2026 that it exceeded expectations for the fourth quarter and full year 2025, with Q4 revenue rising about 400% year on year to $0.9 million and fu...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Serve Robotics Completes Vebu Acquisition to Expand Platform
Positive
Feb 20, 2026
On February 5, 2026, Serve Robotics Inc. signed an Agreement and Plan of Merger with its wholly owned subsidiary Serve Kitchen Robotics Inc. and Vebu, Inc., and on February 17, 2026, completed the transaction, with Vebu becoming a wholly owned sub...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
Serve Robotics completes acquisition of Diligent Robotics
Positive
Jan 29, 2026
On January 27, 2026, Serve Robotics Inc. completed its previously announced acquisition of Diligent Robotics, Inc., with Diligent merging into a wholly owned subsidiary of Serve. Under the merger terms, Diligent’s preferred stockholders rece...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Serve Robotics to Acquire Diligent Robotics in Stock Deal
Positive
Jan 21, 2026
On January 19, 2026, Serve Robotics Inc. agreed to acquire all outstanding equity of Diligent Robotics, an Austin-based developer of AI-powered hospital robot assistants, in an all-stock transaction valued at $29 million, subject to adjustments an...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.