Upsales Technology AB (UPSALE) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: kr356.97M
• Dividend Yield: 4.69%
• Average Volume (3M): 15.77K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 24.4
• Beta (1Y): 0.27
• Revenue Growth: N/A
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: SE
• Employees: 75
• Sector: Technology
• Sector Strength: 88
• Industry: Software - Application
• EPS (TTM): 0.34
• Shares Outstanding: 16,838,375
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 10,817
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 15,768
• PEG Ratio: 1.20
• Price to Book (P/B): 30.68
• Price to Sales (P/S): 3.70
• P/FCF Ratio: 17.23
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.57
• Revenue Forecast (FY): kr166.10M

• Rating: 68 Neutral
• Price Target: kr23.00 ▼(-31.14% Downside)
• Action: Downgraded Date: 02/19/26
• Date: Action: Downgraded 02/19/26

The score is driven primarily by strong cash-flow performance and continued profitability, partially offset by the significant 2025 gross-margin collapse that adds uncertainty to earnings quality. Technicals are a notable drag due to a clear downtrend, while valuation is supported by a moderate P/E and high dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Recurring SaaS revenue model

A subscription-based SaaS model creates durable recurring revenue, improving predictability and cash flow over multiple months. Dependence on renewals and account expansion incentivizes retention/upsell efforts, supporting steady revenue streams and long-term customer lifetime value.

Strong cash generation

Consistent positive operating cash flow and a significant free cash flow step-up in 2025 (FCF growth ~55.9%, FCF/net income ~0.93 in 2025) indicate high cash conversion. This supports reinvestment, dividend capacity and resilience through cyclical pressures without relying heavily on external financing.

Modest financial leverage

Low debt-to-equity (~0.30) reduces financial risk and interest burden, giving management flexibility to invest in product or sales expansion. Modest leverage improves downside protection and lowers refinancing risk over the next several quarters compared with highly leveraged peers.

Negative Factors

Gross-margin collapse

A structural fall in gross margin transforms unit economics for a software business, reducing scalability and long-run profitability. If driven by mix or cost increases, it undermines recurring margin power and raises sustained cost control and pricing questions that materially affect earnings durability.

Revenue volatility / one-off 2025 jump

An outsized, non-linear revenue spike reduces comparability and makes future growth forecasts unreliable. If driven by one-off deals or accounting changes, it weakens traction evidence, complicates capacity planning and obscures whether higher revenue can sustain margins and cash conversion longer term.

Declining equity cushions

Shrinking equity reduces the firm's capital buffer against losses and limits financial flexibility despite low nominal leverage. Over months ahead this can constrain funding options for growth or make the company more sensitive to earnings shocks and less able to absorb margin or revenue volatility.

Upsales Technology AB Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Upsales Technology AB (publ) operates as a software-as-a-service company that develops and sells web-based business systems with a focus on sales, marketing, and analytics in Sweden and internationally. It offers Upsales platform, which provides database; analyzes sales history and gives suggestions on actions to win more deals; offers AI-based lead recommendations; helps discover untapped companies in customers' corporate networks; sets data-driven targets with AI-based accuracy, as well as provides automated forecasts and alerts for tracking pipeline activity; identifies customers on multiple boards for new sales opportunities; analyzes complex sales targets, including revenue recognition, subscription ARR/MRR, and profit margin; offers upsell and cross-sell alerts; and extracts sales data. The company also integrates for third party apps. Upsales Technology AB (publ) was founded in 2003 and is based in Stockholm, Sweden.

How the Company Makes Money

Upsales primarily makes money by selling subscriptions to its cloud-based software platform (SaaS). Customers typically pay recurring fees to access the CRM and related sales/marketing functionality, commonly structured by subscription term (e.g., monthly or annual) and often influenced by factors such as the number of users/seats and the selected product tier or feature package. In addition to recurring subscription revenue, the company may generate revenue from associated services that support customer adoption and success—such as onboarding/implementation, configuration, and training—when these are billed separately rather than bundled into the subscription. The company’s earnings are therefore driven mainly by (1) retaining and renewing existing customers (recurring revenue), (2) expanding accounts via additional users or higher-tier modules (net revenue retention/upsell), and (3) acquiring new customers to grow the subscription base. Specific details on pricing structure, the relative mix of subscription vs. services revenue, and material partnership contributions are not available in the provided prompt, so null.

Upsales Technology AB Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong and consistent operating/free cash flow with solid profitability, but 2025 results show a major risk: gross margin collapsed to ~18.5% from ~61–65% historically and revenue jumped unusually (+265.6%), reducing comparability and raising durability concerns. Balance sheet leverage is modest (debt-to-equity ~0.30), though equity has trended down.

Income Statement

Profitability is solid for a software business, with net margin improving to ~14.8% in 2025 (annual) from ~12.8% in 2024, and earnings remaining positive across the period. Revenue growth, however, is volatile: strong expansion in 2021–2023, a decline in 2024 (-4.8%), then a sharp rebound in 2025 (+265.6%) that looks unusually high and suggests a non-linear jump versus the prior year. A key concern is the 2025 (annual) gross margin collapsing to ~18.5% versus ~61–65% historically, which materially changes the earnings quality and raises questions about cost structure or mix.

Balance Sheet

Leverage remains modest, with 2025 (annual) debt-to-equity at ~0.30 (and no debt reported in prior years), which reduces financial risk relative to many peers. That said, equity has trended down from 2021–2025 while total assets are broadly stable to higher, implying weaker balance-sheet buffering over time. Returns on equity are very high in 2025 (annual) versus prior years, but given the unusual margin shift in 2025, the sustainability and quality of that profitability signal is less clear.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a clear strength: operating cash flow is consistently positive and free cash flow is strong across all years, with a major step-up in 2025 (annual) and free cash flow growth of ~55.9%. Free cash flow tracks reported earnings well (free cash flow to net income ~0.93 in 2025, ~0.69 in 2024, ~0.91 in 2023), supporting earnings quality. A watch item is that operating cash flow relative to revenue stays around ~0.38–0.52, indicating good conversion but not a meaningfully improving trend despite the large 2025 revenue jump.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	152.03M	144.77M	152.14M	129.58M	93.14M
Gross Profit	28.18M	88.52M	94.77M	84.06M	51.56M
EBITDA	38.56M	32.35M	43.21M	35.71M	19.83M
Net Income	22.45M	18.48M	27.55M	22.50M	9.72M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	109.96M	103.35M	115.91M	124.50M	115.79M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	36.97M	47.44M	52.61M	64.44M	66.36M
Total Debt	5.56M	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Total Liabilities	91.63M	81.43M	85.64M	87.82M	77.12M
Stockholders Equity	18.33M	21.91M	30.27M	36.67M	38.68M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	32.64M	21.30M	29.42M	22.94M	29.06M
Operating Cash Flow	35.21M	30.73M	32.36M	33.69M	40.37M
Investing Cash Flow	-19.26M	-9.06M	-10.24M	-11.12M	-11.22M
Financing Cash Flow	-26.34M	-26.84M	-33.95M	-24.45M	1.81M

Upsales Technology AB Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
GENI	75 Outperform	kr435.75M	18.38	―	3.48%	―	―
UPSALE	68 Neutral	kr356.97M	24.40	―	4.69%	―	―
CDMIL	62 Neutral	kr200.92M	-160.32	―	3.25%	-18.05%	-71.19%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$37.18B	12.37	-10.20%	1.83%	8.50%	-7.62%